Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters

The dynamics of hydrochemical parameters such as nitrates, and orthophosphates of surface waters were analyzed. Based on the analysis of wide temporal monitoring data, of prognosis nitrates and orthophosphates of the surface waters were carried out.The purpose is an assessment of the state of the su...

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Date:	2022
Main Authors:	Mitryasova, Olena P., Shybanova, Alla M., Dzhumelia, Elvira A.
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture 2022
Subjects:	nitrates phosphates prognosis models water security the prognosis of the environment state
Online Access:	https://es-journal.in.ua/article/view/273551
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Journal Title:	Environmental safety and natural resources

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Environmental safety and natural resources

id	es-journalinua-article-273551
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institution	Environmental safety and natural resources
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datestamp_date	2023-02-06T02:44:09Z
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language	English
topic	nitrates phosphates prognosis models water security the prognosis of the environment state
spellingShingle	nitrates phosphates prognosis models water security the prognosis of the environment state Mitryasova, Olena P. Shybanova, Alla M. Dzhumelia, Elvira A. Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
topic_facet	нітрати фосфати прогнозні моделі безпека водних ресурсів прогноз стану довкілля nitrates phosphates prognosis models water security the prognosis of the environment state
format	Article
author	Mitryasova, Olena P. Shybanova, Alla M. Dzhumelia, Elvira A.
author_facet	Mitryasova, Olena P. Shybanova, Alla M. Dzhumelia, Elvira A.
author_sort	Mitryasova, Olena P.
title	Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
title_short	Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
title_full	Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
title_fullStr	Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
title_full_unstemmed	Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
title_sort	prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
title_alt	Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters
description	The dynamics of hydrochemical parameters such as nitrates, and orthophosphates of surface waters were analyzed. Based on the analysis of wide temporal monitoring data, of prognosis nitrates and orthophosphates of the surface waters were carried out.The purpose is an assessment of the state of the surface water by nitrates and orthophosphates hydrochemical parameters and their regression analysis.The object of research – was to determine nitrates and orthophosphates indicators of the river water state during 12 years.The regression analysis method using the Windows Excel CurveExpert software was used to determine the empirical dependencies and search for connections.Against the background of high regulation of the Inhul river basin (the presence of 770 ponds and an irrigation system on 33 hectares, water use is carried out by more than 20 enterprises) showed the periodic nature of changes in hydrochemical parameters. Based on the obtained functions, prognoses to 2030 on annual averages were developed. The study is the basis for determining the mathematical model of natural fluctuations of the research indicators. Regression analysis allows obtaining a sinusoidal dependence on the orthophosphates content, which demonstrates 13 years fluctuation (R = 0.90). We have an 11-year sinusoidal wave with a period of 10 years and fairly high representativeness (R = 0.85) for nitrate content. The determined sinusoidal dependences of the integrated indicators of water quality allowed determining the average time of fluctuations concerning the processes of self-organization of river waters, which is about 11 years, and confirms the theory of "waves of life". The surface waters of the river are capable of self-renewal and their hydrochemical status has not yet reached a critical point, after which irreversible changes in the river ecosystem may occur.
publisher	Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture
publishDate	2022
url	https://es-journal.in.ua/article/view/273551
work_keys_str_mv	AT mitryasovaolenap prognosismodelsofnitratesandorthophosphatescontentinsurfacewaters AT shybanovaallam prognosismodelsofnitratesandorthophosphatescontentinsurfacewaters AT dzhumeliaelviraa prognosismodelsofnitratesandorthophosphatescontentinsurfacewaters
first_indexed	2025-07-17T11:18:58Z
last_indexed	2025-07-17T11:18:58Z
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spelling	es-journalinua-article-2735512023-02-06T02:44:09Z Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters Mitryasova, Olena P. Shybanova, Alla M. Dzhumelia, Elvira A. нітрати фосфати прогнозні моделі безпека водних ресурсів прогноз стану довкілля nitrates phosphates prognosis models water security the prognosis of the environment state The dynamics of hydrochemical parameters such as nitrates, and orthophosphates of surface waters were analyzed. Based on the analysis of wide temporal monitoring data, of prognosis nitrates and orthophosphates of the surface waters were carried out.The purpose is an assessment of the state of the surface water by nitrates and orthophosphates hydrochemical parameters and their regression analysis.The object of research – was to determine nitrates and orthophosphates indicators of the river water state during 12 years.The regression analysis method using the Windows Excel CurveExpert software was used to determine the empirical dependencies and search for connections.Against the background of high regulation of the Inhul river basin (the presence of 770 ponds and an irrigation system on 33 hectares, water use is carried out by more than 20 enterprises) showed the periodic nature of changes in hydrochemical parameters. Based on the obtained functions, prognoses to 2030 on annual averages were developed. The study is the basis for determining the mathematical model of natural fluctuations of the research indicators. Regression analysis allows obtaining a sinusoidal dependence on the orthophosphates content, which demonstrates 13 years fluctuation (R = 0.90). We have an 11-year sinusoidal wave with a period of 10 years and fairly high representativeness (R = 0.85) for nitrate content. The determined sinusoidal dependences of the integrated indicators of water quality allowed determining the average time of fluctuations concerning the processes of self-organization of river waters, which is about 11 years, and confirms the theory of "waves of life". The surface waters of the river are capable of self-renewal and their hydrochemical status has not yet reached a critical point, after which irreversible changes in the river ecosystem may occur. Проаналізовано динаміку таких гідрохімічних показників, як нітрати та ортофосфати поверхневих вод. На основі аналізу даних широкого часового моніторингу проведено прогноз нітратів і ортофосфатів поверхневих вод. Мета – оцінка стану поверхневих вод за гідрохімічними показниками нітратів і ортофосфатів та їх регресійний аналіз. Мета дослідження – визначення нітратно-ортофосфатних показників стану води річки упродовж 12 років. Для визначення емпіричних залежностей та пошуку зв’язків використовувався метод регресійного аналізу з використанням програми Windows Excel CurveExpert. На фоні високої зарегульованості басейну річки Інгул (наявність 770 ставків та зрошувальної системи на 33 га, водокористування здійснюють понад 20 підприємств) показано періодичний характер зміни гідрохімічних показників. На основі отриманих функцій здійснено прогнози до 2030 р. за середньорічними показниками. Дослідження є основою для визначення математичної моделі закономірних коливань досліджуваних показників. Регресійний аналіз дозволив отримати синусоїдальну залежність вмісту ортофосфатів, яка охоплює 13-річне коливання (R = 0,90). Отримано 11-річну синусоїду з періодом 10 років і досить високу репрезентативність (R = 0,85) за вмістом нітратів. Визначені синусоїдальні залежності інтегральних показників якості води дозволили визначити середній час коливань щодо процесів самоорганізації поверхневих вод, який становить близько 11 років і підтверджує теорію «хвиль життя». Поверхневі води річки здатні до самовідновлення, а їх гідрохімічний стан ще не досяг критичної точки, після якої можуть відбутися незворотні зміни в річковій екосистемі. Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture 2022-12-29 Article Article application/pdf https://es-journal.in.ua/article/view/273551 10.32347/2411-4049.2022.4.30-43 Environmental safety and natural resources; Vol. 44 No. 4 (2022): Environmental safety and natural resources; 30-43 Екологічна безпека та природокористування; Том 44 № 4 (2022): Екологічна безпека та природокористування; 30-43 2616-2121 2411-4049 10.32347/2411-4049.2022.4 en https://es-journal.in.ua/article/view/273551/268922 Copyright (c) 2022 O.P. Mitryasova, A.M. Shybanova, E.A. Dzhumelia http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Prognosis models of nitrates and orthophosphates content in surface waters

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