Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability
The problem of search fundamentally of another methods of planning of activity and development of enterprise comes into question in the conditions of environment instability. It is marked that the mechanism of planning of steady development of industrial enterprise offered in scientific literature r...
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Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
2015
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irk-123456789-1093362016-11-25T03:02:47Z Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability Naberezhnyh, T.S. Shevchenko, N.Y. Management of Innovations The problem of search fundamentally of another methods of planning of activity and development of enterprise comes into question in the conditions of environment instability. It is marked that the mechanism of planning of steady development of industrial enterprise offered in scientific literature requires a further study and perfection in the context of becoming of Ukraine as a competitive participant of world trade. The improved conceptual model of planning of steady development of industrial enterprise is described in the article, that, unlike other approaches, is based on the stage-by-stage design of process of planning of activity of enterprise, providing quality transformation of enterprise as a difficult system and allowing to define the effective trajectory of his steady development. It is suggested to use the method of multisigmoid approximation for prognostication of basic economic indicators on the nearest periods. On the basis of prognosis values it is suggested to form the trajectory of development of enterprise and conduct the estimation of stability of the chosen trajectory. Обговорюється проблема пошуку принципово інших методів планування діяльності й розвитку підприємства в умовах нестабільності зовнішнього середовища. Відмічено, що пропонований в науковій літературі механізм планування стійкого розвитку промислового підприємства вимагає подальшого вивчення і вдосконалення в контексті становлення України як конкурентоздатного учасника світової торгівлі. У статті описана концептуальна модель планування стійкого розвитку промислового підприємства, яка, на відміну від інших підходів, базується на поетапному моделюванні процесу планування діяльності підприємства, що забезпечує якісну трансформацію підприємства як складної системи і дозволяє визначити ефективну траєкторію його стійкого розвитку. Пропонується використовувати метод мультисигмоїдальної апроксимації для прогнозування основних економічних показників на найближчі періоди. На основі прогнозних значень пропонується формувати траєкторію розвитку підприємства та здійснювати оцінку стійкості обраної траєкторії. Обсуждается проблема поиска принципиально иных методов планирования деятельности и развития предприятия в условиях нестабильности внешней среды. Отмечено, что предлагаемый в научной литературе механизм планирования устойчивого развития промышленного предприятия требует дальнейшего изучения и совершенствования в контексте становления Украины как конкурентоспособного участника мировой торговли. В статье описана усовершенствованная концептуальная модель планирования устойчивого развития промышленного предприятия, которая, в отличие от других подходов, базируется на поэтапном моделировании процесса планирования деятельности предприятия, обеспечивающего качественную трансформацию предприятия как сложной системы и позволяющего определить эффективную траекторию его устойчивого развития. Предлагается использовать метод мультисигмоидальной аппроксимации для прогнозирования основных экономических показателей на ближайшие периоды. На основе прогнозных значений предлагается формировать траекторию развития предприятия и проводить оценку устойчивости выбранной траектории. 2015 Article Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability / T.S. Naberezhnyh, N.Y. Shevchenko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2015. — № 4 (42). — С. 162-166. — Бібліогр.: 6 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/109336 334.716+519.86+658.15 en Економічний вісник Донбасу Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
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Management of Innovations Management of Innovations |
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Management of Innovations Management of Innovations Naberezhnyh, T.S. Shevchenko, N.Y. Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability Економічний вісник Донбасу |
| description |
The problem of search fundamentally of another methods of planning of activity and development of enterprise comes into question in the conditions of environment instability. It is marked that the mechanism of planning of steady development of industrial enterprise offered in scientific literature requires a further study and perfection in the context of becoming of Ukraine as a competitive participant of world trade. The improved conceptual model of planning of steady development of industrial enterprise is described in the article, that, unlike other approaches, is based on the stage-by-stage design of process of planning of activity of enterprise, providing quality transformation of enterprise as a difficult system and allowing to define the effective trajectory of his steady development. It is suggested to use the method of multisigmoid approximation for prognostication of basic economic indicators on the nearest periods. On the basis of prognosis values it is suggested to form the trajectory of development of enterprise and conduct the estimation of stability of the chosen trajectory. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Naberezhnyh, T.S. Shevchenko, N.Y. |
| author_facet |
Naberezhnyh, T.S. Shevchenko, N.Y. |
| author_sort |
Naberezhnyh, T.S. |
| title |
Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability |
| title_short |
Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability |
| title_full |
Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability |
| title_fullStr |
Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability |
| title_sort |
planning of steady industrial enterprise development under condition of environment instability |
| publisher |
Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| topic_facet |
Management of Innovations |
| url |
http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/109336 |
| citation_txt |
Planning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development under Condition of Environment Instability / T.S. Naberezhnyh, N.Y. Shevchenko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2015. — № 4 (42). — С. 162-166. — Бібліогр.: 6 назв. — англ. |
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Економічний вісник Донбасу |
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| fulltext |
T. S. Naberezhnyh, N. Y. Shevchenko
162
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(42), 2015
UDC 334.716+519.86+658.15
T. S. Naberezhnyh,
Master of Intelligence Systems of Decision Making,
N. Y. Shevchenko,
PhD (Economics), Ass. Prof.,
Donbass State Machiene Building Academy
PLANNING OF STEADY INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT
UNDER CONDITION OF ENVIRONMENT INSTABILITY
Raising of problem. In the conditions of globali-
zation of the world economy an important role is played
by industrial enterprises. However existent priorities of
development and functioning of enterprises often fall
behind the requirements of modern society.
Forming of the modern economic system of
Ukraine took place mainly in accordance with exoge-
nous model, essence and the outline of which were stip-
ulated by the development of the export oriented enter-
prises, fuel, energy and metallurgical complexes. Unfor-
tunately, export expansion of these industries was not
accompanied by a technological breakthrough, the pro-
duction remained expensive, based on the use of cheap
power sources and labour. The situation became urgent
under the condition of economic crisis, and rapid fall in
demand for products. Therefore for stabilizing and in-
crease of level of competitiveness of economy of coun-
try urgent steps in the strategy of enterprises develop-
ment of all industries are needed for entering the world
market, in particular on the basis of the effective plan-
ning of their activities and development.
Analysis of the recent research works. The gen-
eral approach to planning of enterprise activities is ex-
pounded in works of foreign and home authors : А. Hen-
derson, W.Cooper, R.Dorfman, J. von Neiman, J.Riggs,
P.Samuelson, A.Charns, I.Aramonov, A.Bakhtin,
I.Bohomolov, N.Herasimov, Y.Kisliakov, W.Lihten-
stein, F. Miszoakhmedov, B.Orazbaev, V.Zviagina,
V.Surina, R.Tkachenko, O.Tsarkova, V.Chistiakova
etc.
Primary most works of authors that engaged in the
problems of development of plans of enterprise activi-
ties are based either on the experience and statistical or
normative methods of plan drafting that under the con-
dition of unstable environment can result in their inade-
quacy. As I.Prigozhin stated [1], "... it should be remem-
bered that, although we in principle can know the initial
conditions in the endless number of points, the future,
nevertheless, remains unforeseeable fundamentally ".
Therefore the problem of fundamental search of alterna-
tive methods of planning under the conditions of insta-
bility is actual, and is often touched upon in scientific
literature [2-3]; the mechanism of planning of steady in-
dustrial enterprise development requires a further study
and perfection in the context of Ukraine becoming a
competitive participant of the world trade.
The aim of this article is description of conceptual
model of planning of steady industrial enterprise devel-
opment under the conditions of environment instability.
Exposition of basic material. In the conditions of
environment instability, the primary objective of any en-
terprise is not to cease to exist, and to form pre-condi-
tions for the further perspective profitable functioning.
The main task of the modern stage of economy develop-
ment is revival of industrial production and economy on
the whole.
Steady development of the producing and econom-
ical system is investigation and description of quality of
decisions made. The mechanism of providing stability
of enterprise must be realized, foremost, by means of
strategy forming of steady enterprise development.
Steady development of enterprise is provided by the per-
manent increase of production of goods, and growth of
the volume of sales. The permanent growth of sales is
mediated by the growth of income of enterprise [2-
3].However, the increase of production and sales vol-
umes must be accompanied by the growth of efficiency
indexes of the use of all resources of enterprise.
Planning envisages the development of aims and
complex of measures, stipulating the sequence of results
achievement taking into account the possibilities of the
most effective use of resources by every productive sub-
division and organization in general. According to
aforesaid it is possible to draw the conclusion that plan-
ning is a well-organized process based on treatment of
information for the development of project in certain pa-
rameters for the achievement of definite aims in the fu-
ture. We understand under the term of the instrument of
planning a set of resources, methods, approaches the en-
terprise will be able of using for planning the activity,
defining prospects and possibilities of the organization
in the achievement of the desired results.
The task of steady development of industrial enter-
prise planning consists in planning of such influence of
management (management of enterprise) object on sub-
ject of management (subsystems of enterprise) where
the greatest amount of the aims set is achieved.
We will describe the conceptual model of steady
development of industrial enterprise planning that, un-
like other approaches, is based on the stage-by-stage de-
sign of planning process of enterprise activities provid-
ing quality transformation of enterprise as a difficult
T. S. Naberezhnyh, N. Y. Shevchenko
163
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(42), 2015
system and allowing it to define the effective trajectory
of steady development (see Fig. 1).
Prognostication of basic economic indicators (for
example, incomes, finding). An enterprise is a complex
dynamic system with changes of its parameters in ac-
cordance with factors of environment. The smooth
change of parameters will be described as a "step" ("sig-
moid") function, playback of the transition of size from
one level to other. For measuring the parameters of
"smooth transition" it is suggested to use the sigmoid
function of Boltzmann:
( )
τ
0
1
12
1 tt
e
AA
AtF −
+
−+= , (1)
where A1 and A2 are values of economic indicator of F
before and after process; t0 is a moment of time, in that
a process takes place most intensively; τ it is a parameter
stipulating transition duration.
251659264
Fig. 1. Conceptual model of planning of industrial enterprise development
At the same time plenty of processes of different
character, beginning in different moments of time and
resulting in different economic indicators certain in-
crease takes place on an industrial enterprise. Therefore
the real dependence of F (t) can be considered imposi-
tion of great number of separate transitions. In this case
dependence of F (t) it is expedient to present as a sum
(superposition) of a few sigmoid functions (mul-
tisigmoid presentation). In case of arbitrary amount of
sigmoid elements a formula for F (t) is written down in
a kind [4]:
( ) ( )
1
1
1
,
6 3
1 exp
SN
i i
i нi кi
i
A A
F t A
t t t
tΔ
+
=
−= +
− +
+
(2)
where (Ai – Ai+1) – increase of economic indicator F in
the process of i- gо of transition; tнi, tкi и Δti – ime of
beginning, completions and duration of i- gо of transi-
ent. Use of constant 3 it is possible to ground that at
moving away from t0 nа 3τ the sigmoid function of
Boltzmann practically fully goes out on a horizontal as-
ymptote (an exact calculation shows that on 95,26 %).
From the mathematical point of view determina-
tion of parameters of multisigmoid for a concrete index
after Nг of preceding years behaves to the tasks of class
of approximation. It is necessary on the known set of
points (ti, Fi) to pick up analytical expression of F (t),
that will be maximally near to this set of points, and ac-
cordingly in the best measure will describe the present
set of statistical data. In this case the set of points (ti, Fi)
are data of accounting control, and analytical expression
is searched as superpozition a few sigmoid F (t). Deter-
mination of parameters sigmoid function it is possible,
for example, to produce the least-squares method (of
MNK) [3, 5].
Example, prognostications of sizes of income and
funding on the basis of approximation presented the sig-
moid functions of Boltzmann on fig.2.
PLANNING OF STEADY ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT
Aim:
Increase of enterprise management efficiency due to development and application of
mechanism of planning of its steady development under the conditions of environment
instability
Steady Enterprise Planning
Evaluation of Economic Stability
Prognostication of Basic Economic Inidcators
(Income, Funding)
Evaluation of the Stability Class
Forming recommendat ions for managerial decision making
T. S. Naberezhnyh, N. Y. Shevchenko
164
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(42), 2015
(1) income (2) funding
Fig. 2. Charts of sigmoid function of Boltzmann
Defining the trajectory of development of enter-
prise thus, further logically to estimate stability of this
trajectory.
Carrying out the activity in a market environment,
an enterprise will realize a progress trend is this acqui-
sition of new quality, qualificatory stability of vital
functions of organization, her height, that is inalienable
part of planning.
Stability of industrial enterprise is a steady-state of
enterprise in certain moment of time, characterizing the
quality and effective indexes of business processes, and
also ability of enterprise to save these indexes under act
of constantly changing environment.
The estimation of economic stability it is suggested
to execute according to a next algorithm [6-7]:
- forming of the informative field (collection of in-
formation);
- choice of standard index;
- statistical processing of data;
- setting of norms of data;
- analysis of connections between a standard index
and criteria of economic stability;
- selection of coefficients of ponderability for the
selected criteria of economic stability;
- construction of integral coefficient of economic
stability of the system;
- estimation of level of economic stability of enter-
prise;
- determination of class of economic stability.
The integral coefficient of economic stability of the
system we will present as a functional order taking into
account gravimetric coefficients [6]:
1 1
,
h m
p p u u
p u
ES w F w F
= =
= ⋅ − ⋅ (3)
where Fp, Fu – functional criteria of the positive (stimu-
lant) and negative (anti stimulant) affecting economic
stability accordingly; wp, wu– specific gravity of mean-
ingfulness of indexes Fp, Fu; h, m– amount of indexes
positive (stimulant) and negative (anti stimulant) affect-
ing economic stability of the system (enterprises) ac-
cordingly.
Gravimetric coefficients are determined as fol-
lows:
1 1
,
1 1
1 1
1
2
,
2
j n
j
p l
i j j n
jjn
p l
j n
l p
j
l
d
w
d
d
d
= =
= =
= =
=
⋅
=
⋅
⋅
(4)
where n – amount of periods chosen for an analysis; p –
amount of the selected indexes. For determination of pa-
rameter
jd in scientific literature [6] it is suggested to
use weighing methodology that is base on comparison
of chain indexes of the selected indexes
1−it
it
F
F , with
the chain index of standard index
1−t
t
E
E on the basis
of calculations of square root from the square of differ-
ence between them:
2
11
)(
−−
−=
it
it
t
t
j F
F
E
E
d (5)
Further on the value of integral index of stability
the class of stability is determined. In a table 1 descrip-
tion of classes of stability is presented for an integral in-
dex ES.
In a table 2 presented to recommendation on plan-
ning of steady development of enterprise depending on
the class of stability, that was certain before.
T. S. Naberezhnyh, N. Y. Shevchenko
165
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(42), 2015
Table 1
Value of index ES and description of stability
Class of stability Value of index Description
Absolute steady development 0,9<ES≤1
Economic position high-efficiency. A personnel is provided with a stable salary,
the optimal terms of his labour, rest are created. Implementation does not cause a
doubt the enterprise of all obligations.
High steady development 0,8< ES≤0,9
Characterized by the stable increase of technic-economic indexes within the lim-
its of the pre-arranged values. The level of social material well-being of workers
is high with the prospects of further development. The all-round analysis of activ-
ity of enterprise shows high probability of implementation to them all contractual
obligations.
Normal steady development 0,7< ES≤0,8
Characterized by the even positive trend of indexes, but values of the below
planned sizes. The analysis of activity of enterprise shows acceptable probability
of implementation to them all basic obligations.
AV steady development 0,6< ES≤0,7
Economic position is provided by stable technic-economic indexes. An enter-
prise can have some difficulties with implementation of contractual obligations.
Low steady development 0,5 <ES≤0,6
The economic state is described by substantial gallops in characterized his in-
dexes. An enterprise can have certain difficulties with implementation of contrac-
tual obligations.
Unsteady development 0,4< ES≤0,5
The basic elements of component support the values of indexes up-to-the-mark.
Social security of personnel is not provided. An enterprise is constantly subject
to the danger of derangement or worsening of implementation of the obligations.
Critical position 0,3<ES ≤0,4
Greater part of indexes is at low level, there are problems in a production or pro-
duction distribution. There were difficulties, but implementation of basic obliga-
tions is yet possible.
Crisis position ES<0,3
Characterized by failures in industrial and economic activity, producing of prod-
ucts is conducted irregularly, before produced production distribution does not
come true. An enterprise is not able independently to execute contractual obliga-
tions.
Table 2
Recommendation
Value of
index ES
Recommendation on planning of steady development of enterprise
[1-0,8] continuation of functioning of enterprise on drawn up a plan;
increase of values of plan technic-economic indexes with the purpose of achievement of new aims.
[0,8-0,6] restructuring of enterprise, with the selection of profitable productive subdivisions;
maintenance of the folded economic connections with partners;
search of new partners for a collaboration.
[0,6-0,4] decline of unit cost;
reorganization of corresponding components or control system by an enterprise on the whole;
perfection of pricing on the produced products (to bring down prices on commodities, to attract customers);
analysis of profitability of products (to give mind on the production of more cost-effective goods).
<0,4 participating of enterprise is in the different investment and innovative programs, that gives an opportunity of the
use of privileges on taxation and crediting;
bringing in of new investors;
taking of inventory of supplies and equipment with the purpose of exposure of surpluses for realization on market
prices with the purpose of receipt of additional financial resources.
Conclusions
The use of the offered scheduling of development
algorithm will allow to guidance to estimate stability of
economic position of enterprise and rationally to dispose
of the resources for the effective functioning in future.
The method of multisigmoid approximation besides
possibility of analysis of aleak economic processes al-
lows with the high degree of reliability to forecast the
set economic indicator on the nearest periods. The
method of estimation of economic stability will allow to
identify the level of stability on the basis of prognosis
values. Application of the offered complex model an en-
terprise will allow to correct the business processes and
provide the stable functioning in the future.
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вища
Обговорюється проблема пошуку принципово
інших методів планування діяльності й розвитку
підприємства в умовах нестабільності зовнішнього
середовища. Відмічено, що пропонований в науко-
вій літературі механізм планування стійкого роз-
витку промислового підприємства вимагає подаль-
шого вивчення і вдосконалення в контексті станов-
лення України як конкурентоздатного учасника сві-
тової торгівлі. У статті описана концептуальна мо-
дель планування стійкого розвитку промислового
підприємства, яка, на відміну від інших підходів, ба-
зується на поетапному моделюванні процесу плану-
вання діяльності підприємства, що забезпечує
якісну трансформацію підприємства як складної
системи і дозволяє визначити ефективну траєкторію
його стійкого розвитку. Пропонується використову-
вати метод мультисигмоїдальної апроксимації для
прогнозування основних економічних показників на
найближчі періоди. На основі прогнозних значень
пропонується формувати траєкторію розвитку під-
приємства та здійснювати оцінку стійкості обраної
траєкторії.
Ключові слова: підприємство, планування, стій-
кий розвиток, моделювання, мультисигмоїдальні
функції, економічна стійкість.
Набережных Т. С., Шевченко Н. Ю. Плани-
рование устойчивого развития промышленного
предприятия в условиях нестабильности внеш-
ней среды
Обсуждается проблема поиска принципиально
иных методов планирования деятельности и разви-
тия предприятия в условиях нестабильности внеш-
ней среды. Отмечено, что предлагаемый в научной
литературе механизм планирования устойчивого
развития промышленного предприятия требует
дальнейшего изучения и совершенствования в кон-
тексте становления Украины как конкурентоспособ-
ного участника мировой торговли. В статье описана
усовершенствованная концептуальная модель пла-
нирования устойчивого развития промышленного
предприятия, которая, в отличие от других подхо-
дов, базируется на поэтапном моделировании про-
цесса планирования деятельности предприятия,
обеспечивающего качественную трансформацию
предприятия как сложной системы и позволяющего
определить эффективную траекторию его устойчи-
вого развития. Предлагается использовать метод
мультисигмоидальной аппроксимации для прогно-
зирования основных экономических показателей на
ближайшие периоды. На основе прогнозных значе-
ний предлагается формировать траекторию разви-
тия предприятия и проводить оценку устойчивости
выбранной траектории.
Ключевые слова: предприятие, планирование,
устойчивое развитие, моделирование, мультисигмо-
идальные функции, экономическая устойчивость.
Naberezhnyh T. S., Shevchenko N. Yu. Plan-
ning of Steady Industrial Enterprise Development
under Condition of Environment Instability
The problem of search fundamentally of another
methods of planning of activity and development of en-
terprise comes into question in the conditions of envi-
ronment instability. It is marked that the mechanism of
planning of steady development of industrial enterprise
offered in scientific literature requires a further study
and perfection in the context of becoming of Ukraine as
a competitive participant of world trade. The improved
conceptual model of planning of steady development of
industrial enterprise is described in the article, that, un-
like other approaches, is based on the stage-by-stage de-
sign of process of planning of activity of enterprise,
providing quality transformation of enterprise as a diffi-
cult system and allowing to define the effective trajec-
tory of his steady development. It is suggested to use the
method of multisigmoid approximation for prognostica-
tion of basic economic indicators on the nearest periods.
On the basis of prognosis values it is suggested to form
the trajectory of development of enterprise and conduct
the estimation of stability of the chosen trajectory.
Keywords: enterprise, planning, steady develop-
ment, design, multisigmoid functions, economic stabil-
ity.
Received by the editors: 04.09.2015
and final form 28.12.2015
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