Problem of Fuzzy portfolio optimization and its solution with application of forecasting methods

• Дата: 2016
• Автори: Zaychenko, Y., Sydoruk, I.
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: English
• Опубліковано: Навчально-науковий комплекс "Інститут прикладного системного аналізу" НТУУ "КПІ" МОН та НАН України 2016
• Назва видання: Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології
• Теми: Методи оптимізації, оптимальне управління і теорія ігор
• Онлайн доступ: http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/131703
• Назва журналу: Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
• Цитувати: Problem of Fuzzy portfolio optimization and its solution with application of forecasting methods / Y. Zaychenko, I. Sydoruk // Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології. — 2016. — № 1. — С. 85-94. — Бібліогр.: 10 назв. — англ.

The novel theory of investment portfolio optimization under uncertainty is presented based on fuzzy set theory and efficient forecasting methods. The direct problem of fuzzy portfolio optimization and dual problem are considered. In the direct problem structure of a portfolio is determined which provides the maximum profitableness at the given risk level. In dual problem the portfolio structure is determined which provides the minimum risk level at the set level of critical profitableness. For estimation of stocks profitableness in future moment the application of forecasting method- Fuzzy Group Method of Data Handling (FGMDH) is suggested. This method enables to construct fuzzy forecasting models by experimental data almost automatically. The experimental investigations of the suggested theory were carried out and comparison with classical portfolio model was performed.