Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine
Special features of spatial-temporal variations of continentality indices Gorczynsky and Johanson—Ringleb as well as an amplitude and phase of the seasonal change of temperature in the territory of Ukraine under conditions of global warming have been analyzed. Long-term empirical data (average month...
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irk-123456789-1454352019-01-22T01:24:17Z Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine Boychenko, S. Voloshchuk, V. Kuchma, T. Serdyuchenko, N. Special features of spatial-temporal variations of continentality indices Gorczynsky and Johanson—Ringleb as well as an amplitude and phase of the seasonal change of temperature in the territory of Ukraine under conditions of global warming have been analyzed. Long-term empirical data (average month temperature) have been used obtained in the net of meteorological stations of Ukraine evenly located in the plain territory of Ukraine (height not more than 350 m above sea level) during the period 1900—2017. The changes of amplitude and phase of seasonal temperature variations were studied with the help of Fourier analysis. Проанализированы особенности пространственно-временных вариаций индексов континентальности Gorczynsky и Johanson-Ringleb, а также амплитуда и фаза сезонного изменения температуры на территории Украины в условиях глобального потепления. Для анализа использованы долгосрочные эмпирические данные (среднемесячная температура) полученные на сети метеорологических станций Украины, которые равномерно расположены на равнинной территории Украины (с высотой над уровнем моря не более 350 м) за период 1900-2017 гг. Изменения амплитуды и фазы колебаний сезонной температуры были исследованы с помощью анализа Фурье. Проаналізовані особливості просторово-часових варіацій індексів континентальності Gorczynsky та Johanson—Ringleb, а також амплітуди та фази сезонних варіацій температури на території України в умовах глобального потепління. Для аналізу використовуються довгострокові емпіричні дані (середньомісячна температура), що отримані на мережі метеорологічних станцій України, які рівномірно розташовані на рівнинній території України (з висотою над рівнем моря не більше 350 м) за період 1900—2017 рр. Зміни амплітуди та фази сезонних варіацій температури були досліджені за допомогою аналізу Фур'є. 2018 Article Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine / S. Boychenko, V. Voloshchuk, T. Kuchma, N. Serdyuchenko // Геофизический журнал. — 2018. — Т. 40, № 3. — С. 81-96. — Бібліогр.: 32 назв. — англ. 0203-3100 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i3.2018.137175 http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/145435 en Геофизический журнал Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
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Special features of spatial-temporal variations of continentality indices Gorczynsky and Johanson—Ringleb as well as an amplitude and phase of the seasonal change of temperature in the territory of Ukraine under conditions of global warming have been analyzed. Long-term empirical data (average month temperature) have been used obtained in the net of meteorological stations of Ukraine evenly located in the plain territory of Ukraine (height not more than 350 m above sea level) during the period 1900—2017. The changes of amplitude and phase of seasonal temperature variations were studied with the help of Fourier analysis. |
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Boychenko, S. Voloshchuk, V. Kuchma, T. Serdyuchenko, N. |
| spellingShingle |
Boychenko, S. Voloshchuk, V. Kuchma, T. Serdyuchenko, N. Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine Геофизический журнал |
| author_facet |
Boychenko, S. Voloshchuk, V. Kuchma, T. Serdyuchenko, N. |
| author_sort |
Boychenko, S. |
| title |
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine |
| title_short |
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine |
| title_full |
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine |
| title_fullStr |
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine |
| title_sort |
long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in ukraine |
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Інститут геофізики ім. С.I. Субботіна НАН України |
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2018 |
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http://dspace.nbuv.gov.ua/handle/123456789/145435 |
| citation_txt |
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index; the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine / S. Boychenko, V. Voloshchuk, T. Kuchma, N. Serdyuchenko // Геофизический журнал. — 2018. — Т. 40, № 3. — С. 81-96. — Бібліогр.: 32 назв. — англ. |
| series |
Геофизический журнал |
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2025-07-10T21:42:15Z |
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2025-07-10T21:42:15Z |
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| fulltext |
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 81
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality
index, the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal
temperature variation in Ukraine
S. Boychenko1, V. Voloshchuk 2, T. Kuchma3, N. Serdyuchenko4, 2018
1Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine,
Kiev, Ukraine
2 Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of State Service of Emergencies
of Ukraine, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
3 Institute of Agroecology and Environmental Management of National Academy
of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine
4 Leonid Pogorilyy Ukrainian Research Institute for Prediction and Testing
of Technology and Technologies for Agricultural Production, Doslidnytske Town,
Ukraine
Received 18 January 2018
Ïðîàíàë³çîâàíî îñîáëèâîñò³ ïðîñòîðîâî-÷àñîâèõ âàð³àö³é ³íäåêñ³â êîíòèíåí-
òàëüíîñò³ Gorczynsky òà Johanson�Ringleb, à òàêîæ àìïë³òóäè òà ôàçè ñåçîí-
íèõ âàð³àö³é òåìïåðàòóðè íà òåðèòî𳿠Óêðà¿íè â óìîâàõ ãëîáàëüíîãî ïîòåïë³í-
íÿ. Äëÿ àíàë³çó âèêîðèñòàíî äîâãîñòðîêîâ³ åìï³ðè÷í³ äàí³ (ñåðåäíüîì³ñÿ÷íà òåì-
ïåðàòóðà), ùî îòðèìàí³ íà ìåðåæ³ ìåòåîðîëîã³÷íèõ ñòàíö³é Óêðà¿íè, ÿê³ ð³âíî-
ì³ðíî ðîçòàøîâàí³ íà ð³âíèíí³é òåðèòî𳿠Óêðà¿íè (ç âèñîòîþ íàä ð³âíåì ìîðÿ
íå á³ëüø ÿê 350 ì) çà ïåð³îä 1900�2017 ðð. Çì³íè àìïë³òóäè òà ôàçè ñåçîííèõ
âàð³àö³é òåìïåðàòóðè äîñë³äæåíî çà äîïîìîãîþ àíàë³çó Ôóð�º. Âñòàíîâëåíî, ùî
íà ôîí³ çàãàëüíîãî çíèæåííÿ çíà÷åíü ³íäåêñ³â êîíòèíåíòàëüíîñò³ êë³ìàòó íà
òåðèòî𳿠Óêðà¿íè çà ïåð³îä 1900�2017 ðð. (÷åðåç çíà÷íå ïîòåïë³ííÿ â õîëîäíèé
ïåð³îä ðîêó), ñïîñòåð³ãàºòüñÿ òåíäåíö³ÿ ¿õ çðîñòàííÿ (KG íà 6 % çà 100 ðîê³â ³
KJ�R íà 4 % çà 100 ðîê³â) çà ïåð³îä 1970�2017 ðð. (÷åðåç ï³äâèùåííÿ òåìïåðàòó-
ðè â òåïëèé ñåçîí, îñîáëèâî â òðàâí³�ñåðïí³). Àìïë³òóäà òåìïåðàòóðè â XX ñò.
³ íà ïî÷àòêó XXI ñò. çìåíøèëàñÿ íà � 0,5 ± 0,2 °Ñ çà 100 ðîê³â, à çà ïåð³îä 1970�
2017ðð. ³íòåíñèâíî ï³äâèùèëàñÿ íà 1,1 ± 0,6 °Ñ çà 100 ðîê³â. ²ñíóº äåÿêà òåíäåí-
ö³ÿ äî çì³ùåííÿ ôàçè ñåçîííèõ êîëèâàíü òåìïåðàòóðè, ï³ä âïëèâîì çì³í êë³ìà-
òó. Òàê, öÿ ôàçà çì³ñòèëàñÿ íà 1,9 ± 1,1 äí³ ó ï³çí³ø³ ñåçîíè â ö³ëîìó äëÿ òåðèòî-
𳿠Óêðà¿íè.
Êëþ÷îâ³ ñëîâà: çì³íà êë³ìàòó, êë³ìàò Óêðà¿íè, òåðì³÷íèé ³íäåêñ êîíòèíåí-
òàëüíîñò³, àìïë³òóäà ³ ôàçà ñåçîííèõ âàð³àö³é òåìïåðàòóðè.
Introduction. The global climate change
over the past 100�150 years resulted in a
spatial-temporal transformation of a number
of climatic characteristics, for example, the
amplitude of seasonal variations of surface
temperature, the continentality index, the
dryness or humidity index, etc. [Climate ...,
2013].
One of the modern regional features of
climate change is spatial-temporal transfor-
mation of the amplitude of the seasonal tem-
perature variation, due to sufficiently signi-
ficant warming in the cold period of the ye-
ar and somewhat lesser extent in summer,
that led to decrease of climate continenta-
lization (decontinentalization effect) [Clima-
DOI: 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i3.2018.137175
S. BOYCHENKO, V. VOLOSHCHUK, T. KUCHMA, N. SERDYUCHENKO
82 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018
te ... , 2013] , including in Ukraine [Volo-
shchuk, Boychenko, 2003].
Continentality is characterized by the lar-
ge annual ranges of temperature and short
lags between radiation and temperature [Oli-
ver, 2005]. The degree of climate continen-
tality is determined by the appearance of
corresponding changes in the annual and
daily amplitudes of the surface temperature,
humidity, cloudiness, wind speed and atmo-
spheric precipitation variability, etc.
In the latest century, various continenta-
lity climate indices were proposed, based
on the dependence function between the
annual temperature amplitude (annual ran-
ge of temperature (January�July)) and the
geographic latitude of a given place with dif-
ferent correction factors (thermal continen-
tality index) [Khromov, Mamontova, 1974;
Oliver, 2005].
The minimal continentality of climate is
distinctive for oceanic territories, where the
amplitude of the seasonal and diurnal tem-
perature variation ranges from ∼ 2�4 °C,
and the maximum continentality is mani-
fested in the depths of the continents to se-
veral tens of degrees.
A specific sectoral character of continen-
tality is also manifested by heterogeneity
in longitude direction due to the climate dif-
ferences of the western and eastern parts
of the continent (at the some latitude), but
usually the influence of longitude is neg-
lected.
Continentality of climate in mountain re-
gions is not considered as due to the acti-
on of vertical zonality the aerothermal gra-
dient effect is occurred (temperature decre-
ase with altitude is about 6.5 °C/km), in-
fluenced by the latent and sensible turbu-
lent heat flows, temperature inversion, the
barrier effect of mountains (impact on pre-
cipitation values and winds), slope exposu-
re (windward and leeward sides of the slo-
pe) and local winds (chinook, fohn, bora)
[Oliver, 2005].
The thermal continentality index is one
of the regional climate characteristics, which
plays an important role in the analysis of
changes in the distribution of natural and
agrarian ecosystems under climate change
[Buksha, 2009; Przybylak et al., 2010; Tka-
chenko, Boychenko, 2017].
The problem statement. The purpose of
this study is to analyze the features of the
space-time variations of the continentality
indices, the amplitude and phase of the se-
asonal temperature variation in Ukraine un-
der conditions of global warming.
Analysis of the latest researches and pub-
lication. Current occurrence of climate chan-
ge has led to the development of a new cy-
cle of analysis works about the continen-
tality indices changes in different regions
of the planet [Oliver, 2005].
The long-time changes of annual ampli-
tude of temperature and the frost-free sea-
son as a function of climate continentality
in USA for the period 1970�2009, 1940�
1969, and 1900�1939 were researched in
[Blaylock, 2012]. The general trend for USA
to be that increasing oceanicity is associa-
ted with earlier last spring frosts, later first
fall frosts, and longer frost-free seasons ove-
rall. These trends are present at the conti-
nental meteorological stations, but they are
more pronounced in oceanic regions.
The spatial field of Conrad�s index, the
phase of the seasonal wave of temperature
and the continentality index that is based
on the shift of the seasonal variation of ave-
rage temperature in meridional South Ame-
rica were represented in paper [Minetti, 1989].
It has been shown the phase of the first har-
monic Fourier�s, is a good climatic indica-
tor of continental effects.
Temporal variation in the Johansson Con-
tinentality Index was examined for the pe-
riod 1960�2013 over the Middle East and
North Africa region [Ahmed et al., 2016].
The statistically significant increase in the
continental conditions, but with considera-
ble regional differences is established. So,
the most rapid changes were found in the
Fertile Crescent, the Nile Basin and the Ethi-
opian Highlands, while smaller changes oc-
curred over the Arabian Peninsula, Sahara
and Iran.
However, the researches, conducted in
Europe are more interesting for us.
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 83
In accordance with the Gorczynsky and
Conrad continentality indices, most of Eu-
rope is exposed to the maritime climate to
the west and the continentality indices are
increasing rather slow eastward and more
rapidly in the mountains [Oliver, 2005; Mi-
kolá�ková, 2009; Przybylak et al., 2010].
So, the spatial and temporal variability
of the thermal continentality index for Cent-
ral Europe (according to the weather data
of Potsdam, Dresden, Prague, Vienna, Kra-
kow and Debrecen) for the period of 1775�
2012 is presented in [Ciaranek, 2014]. It is
established that the continentality indices
are the highest in Debrecen and the low-
est in Potsdam. In the age-old course of con-
tinentality indices, two waves of their decli-
ne ( in the late nineteenth century and in
1970s�1980s) and two waves of their growth
(in 1930s�1940s, and also in the last 30�
40 years) were noted.
In the Czech Republic the value of the
continentality index (Gorczynsky), is 27.2
(it varied 17.5�40.0) for the period in 1961�
2005 (the linear trend is only 0.08 for 10
years), and for the period of 1881�2006 al-
so has no significant changes despite the
year-by-year quite considerable fluctuati-
ons, which was shown in [Brázdil et al., 2008,
2009].
The studies presented in [Vilèek et al.,
2016], showed that the continentality indices
(Gorczynsky, Conrad, Khromov, Ivanov) cal-
culated for Slovakia for the period of 1961�
2013 tend to the insignificantly increase, and
hence a slight increase in the amplitude of
the seasonal temperature variation.
The simulations with calculation of Gorc-
zynsky and Conrad continentality indeces
as a function of annual temperature range
of the influence of the thermal properties of
land surface on the Central European cli-
mate in the 21st century were suggested in
[Szabó-Takács et al., 2015].
The studies of temperature regime chan-
ges in Ukraine during the 20th century using
indicators of continental climate were con-
ducted and annual amplitude of the air tem-
perature were suggested in [Vrublevskaya,
Kasadyuk, 2012; Boychenko et al., 2017].
Thus, the studies have shown that in Eu-
rope in the 20th century and at the begin-
ning of the 21st century there was a gene-
ral slight decrease in the continentality of
the climate (due to warming in the cold pe-
riod of the year) but the year-by-year quite
considerable fluctuations were noted.
Materials and methods of research. The-
re are many methods for determining the
degree of climate continentality [Gorczyn-
sky, 1922; Johansson, 1931; Conrad, 1946;
Ivanov, 1959; Currey, 1974]. Most of them
take into account the dependence of the
annual amplitude of air temperature on the
geographic latitude (an index is expressed
as a percentage).
The two known continentality indices we-
re used in the analysis:
• Gorczynsky (KG) [Gorczynsky, 1922]:
201.7 −
ϕ
= ∗
sinG
A
K (1)
(marine � 0 ≤ KG < 33, continental � 33 ≤
≤ KG < 66, extreme continental � 66 ≤ KG <
< 100);
• Johanson�Ringleb (KJ�R) [Johansson,
1931]:
36140.6 +−
−
ϕ
= ∗− D
A
K
sin
6.1RJ (2)
(marine � 0 ≤ KJ�R < 40, continental � 40≤
≤ KJ�R < 70, strongly continental � 70 ≤ KJ�R<
< 100).
Here ϕ is geographic latitude (in degre-
es), A
*
is annual temperature amplitude (to
be precise, annual range of temperature (Ja-
nuary�July)), D is the difference between
the average values of the temperature of au-
tumn (September�November) and spring
(March�May).
The continentality indices (1) and (2) dif-
fer somewhat: in the basis of the first, is the
functional dependence of the annual tem-
perature amplitude (to be more precise, an-
nual range of temperature (January�July)
from sinus of geographic latitude, and in
se-cond, average values of the temperatu-
re for the seasons: autumn (September�No-
S. BOYCHENKO, V. VOLOSHCHUK, T. KUCHMA, N. SERDYUCHENKO
84 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018
vember) and spring (March�May) is addi-
tionally taken into account.
In addition, the changes of the amplitu-
de and the phase of the seasonal tempera-
ture variation were researched with the help
of Fourier�s analysis, namely:
+
−π
+≈
12
0.52
0
)(
sin
m
aTT kk
m
,
)(
cos
12
0.52 −π
+
m
b
,
)(
sin
12
0.52
2
−π
= ∑ m
T
m
a m
,
)(
îsc
12
0.52
2
−π
= ∑ m
T
m
b m
∑= ,m
k TT
12
1
0 ,,,, 12...21=m
,22 baA += ,tgarc
a
b
F = (3)
where k is the meteorological station num-
ber and m is the month number.
The long-term empirical data of the net-
work of meteorological observation stations
in the territory of Ukraine for the period of
1900�2017 were analyzed. The meteorolo-
gical stations were chosen so that the follo-
wing conditions were satisfied:
• observations by meteorological stations be-
gan no later than 1900;
• missing observations by meteorological sta-
tions do not exceed 30 % for the period
of 1900�2017;
• stations are evenly located on the plains
of Ukraine (the height above the sea le-
vel does not exceed 350 m).
Consequently 31 meteorological stations
were chosen in the territory Ukraine, which
met the requirements listed above.
The monthly series of temperature we-
re subjected to a relative homogeneity test.
The testing method is based on the deter-
mination of vertical, latitude and longitude
gradients of meteorological parameters (by
the Gauss method). This method of the ob-
servational data analyzing automatically re-
moves the random heterogeneity and auto-
matically homogenizes the series [Voloshchuk
et al., 2002; Boychenko, Serdyuchenko, 2005].
The radial basis function with thin plate
splines was used for spatial interpolation of
the observations at the meteorological sta-
tions. The radial basis function produces go-
od interpolation results for gently varying
values within large distance [Hutchinson,
1995; Boer et al., 2001; Smith et al., 2017].
Features of climate change in Ukraine.
The analysis of the meteorological observa-
tions data in Ukraine, showed, that in the
20th century the annual temperature incre-
ased by 0.5�0.7 °Ñ per 100 years and the
amplitude of the seasonal temperature vari-
ation decreased by ∼ � 0.4 °Ñ per 100 years
[Boychenko, 2008]. The significant warm-
ing is typical during the cold period of the
year and relatively insignificant in warm pe-
riod of the year. Thus, the climate of Ukrai-
ne has become somewhat softer and the de-
continentalization effect has appeared [Vo-
loshchuk, Boychenko, 2003].
However, more significant warming is
observed in the second half of the 20th cen-
tury and at the beginning of the 21st cen-
tury [Boychenko et al., 2016]. So, the annu-
al temperature increased by 1.6 ± 0.4 °Ñ
per 100 years for the period 1900�2015. The
average annual air temperature over the past
twenty years (1991�2010 years) increased
by 1.0 ± 0.2 °Ñ compared to the 1961�1990
average [Buksha, 2009].
Repeatedly the new record levels of ma-
ximal average monthly temperature were
recorded in Ukraine for the last 100 years.
The repeatability and duration of summer
heat periods increased (with the tempera-
ture higher than 25�30 °Ñ) [Boychenko et
al., 2017]. The droughts began to take place
more frequent and in larger territories.
The insignificant increase of the annual
sums of precipitation (5�7 % for 100 years)
was recorded [Boychenko, 2008]. Also, the
effect of alignment of a climatic field of the
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 85
annual precipitation sums was revealed: in
northern and northwestern regions of Ukra-
ine, where the annual sum of precipitation
was relatively high (650�750 mm/year), it
decreased approximately by 10�15 %; in so-
uthern and southeastern regions, where the
annual sum of precipitations was relatively
low (350�450 mm/year), it increased ap-
proximately by 10�15 %.
Taking into account the established ten-
dencies of the transformation of the clima-
tic fields of annual surface temperature and
annual sums of precipitation in the territory
of Ukraine for the 20th century [Voloshchuk,
Boychenko, 2003] and the possible scenari-
os of future global climate changes (RCP4.5
(∆T ∼2.0 °Ñ) and RCP8.5 (∆T ∼4.0 °Ñ)) [Cli-
mate ..., 2013], the regional scenarios of the
possible climate changes to 2050 were deve-
loped, namely [Boychenko et al., 2016]:
scenario 1: it is likely not to exceed (∆T∼
∼ 1.4 ± 0.2 °Ñ) and increase of the annual
precipitation sums by 10 ± 5 % and the cli-
mate aridity in the warm period of the year
(May and August);
scenario 2: it is likely to exceed (∆T ∼ 2.4 ±
± 0.3 °Ñ) and differential spatial distributi-
on of annual precipitation sums, namely the
increase in northern, northwestern and nor-
theastern regions by 15 ± 5 % and decrease
in southern, southeastern and southwestern
regions by 15 ± 5 %.
The contrast in precipitation sums bet-
ween wet and dry regions and between wet
and dry seasons will increase, although the-
re may be regional exceptions.
Features of the space-time variations of
the continentality indices and the amplitu-
de of the seasonal temperature. It is known,
that the space-time distribution of the sur-
face temperature on the plane in the terri-
tory of Ukraine possesses features of a tem-
perate continental climate [Lipinskyi et al.,
2003]. The continentality of climate is in-
creasing towards the north and northeast
of the country (deep into the continent).
One of the features of typical mid-lati-
tude continental seasonal variation of tem-
perature is the minimum in January and the
maximum in July, with the conspicuous an-
nual range of temperature A
*
. On the ave-
rage across the territory, the difference in
annual temperature range (January�July)
in the 20th century fluctuated within 25.5 ±
± 2.0 °Ñ [Vrublevskaya, Kasadyuk, 2012; Boy-
chenko et al., 2017].
Additionally, by calculation the Gorczyn-
sky (KG) and Johanson�Ringleb (KJ�R) con-
tinentality indices we also conducted the
analysis of the space-time fluctuations of the
amplitude of the seasonal temperature vari-
ation (A) and the phase (F), calculated us-
ing the Fourier analysis of average month-
ly observation data for Ukraine.
The results of the Gorczynsky (KG) and
Johanson�Ringleb (KJ�R) continentality
indices calculations by equations (1) and (2)
for 31 meteorological stations showed that:
KG = 36.7 ± 6.2 for the period of 1900�2017
and KJ�R = 59.7 ± 3.6 and KG = 35.4 ± 6.1,
KJ�R = 59.3 ± 3.6 for the period of 1970�
2017. The amplitude of the seasonal tempe-
rature variation has the following values: A=
= 12.6 ± 1.1 for the period of 1900�2017 and
A = 12.3 ± 0.9 for the period of 1970�2017.
The average values of the continentali-
ty indices and the amplitude of the seaso-
nal temperature variation (A) for the periods
of 1900�2017 and 1970�2017 for some me-
teorological stations are presented in Table.
Therefore, the maximum values of the am-
plitude of seasonal temperature variation are
distinctive for the northeastern regions, so
as the minimum values for the southwest-
ern regions of Ukraine.
The analysis of the continentality indic-
es for the 20th century and the beginning
of the 21st centuries showed a general ten-
dency to decrease the values of the indices
and the amplitude of temperature (due to
the warming in the cold period of the year),
whereas for the period of 1970�2017, the
increasing tendency is revealed (due to a
temperature rise in the warm period of year,
especially in May�August). So, in general
for Ukraine the continentality indices have
a decreasing tendency (KG by 2 % per 100
years and KJ�R by 0.1 % per 100 years) the
period of 1900�2017, and on the contrary
for the period of 1970�2017 the indices va-
86 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018
S. BOYCHENKO, V. VOLOSHCHUK, T. KUCHMA, N. SERDIUCHENKO
T
h
e
sp
at
ia
l-
te
m
p
o
ra
l
d
is
tr
ib
u
ti
o
n
o
f
co
n
ti
n
en
ta
li
ty
i
n
d
ic
es
(
K
G
)
an
d
(
K
J�
R
)
an
d
a
m
p
li
tu
d
e
(A
)
an
d
p
h
as
e
(F
)
o
f
se
as
o
n
al
te
m
p
er
at
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re
v
ar
ia
ti
o
n
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t
h
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rr
it
o
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k
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n
d
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t
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r
th
e
p
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t
h
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co
ef
fi
ci
en
t
o
f
li
n
ea
r
tr
en
d
,
n
o
rm
al
iz
ed
f
o
r
10
0
ye
ar
s.
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o
n
ti
n
en
ta
li
ty
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n
d
ic
es
,
%
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o
rc
zy
n
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(K
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)
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h
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(K
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m
p
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te
m
p
er
at
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re
(A
),
°
Ñ
P
h
as
e
(F
),
m
o
n
th
M
et
eo
st
at
io
n
Latitude,
degree
Longitude,
degree
Altitude, m
19
00
�
20
17
19
70
�
20
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19
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C
h
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n
iv
ts
i
46
,6
3
32
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54
34
,7
±
7
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*
–
1,
4 *
*
33
,0
±
6
,5
9,
08
58
,8
±
4
,1
–
0,
7
58
,0
±
3
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6,
2
12
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±
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3
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±
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D
n
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ro
48
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40
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39
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±
7
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4,
4
62
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±
4
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0,
3
62
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±
4
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2,
3
13
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±
1
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0,
3
13
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±
1
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1,
0
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29
±
0
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8
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04
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±
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7
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03
K
h
ar
k
iv
50
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5
34
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7
18
1
39
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±
8
,0
–
0,
3
38
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±
8
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3,
1
62
,4
±
4
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0,
5
62
,2
±
5
,0
1,
6
14
,0
±
1
,3
–
0,
3
13
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±
1
,2
0,
7
1,
31
±
0
,0
8
0,
04
1,
33
±
0
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8
0,
03
K
h
er
so
n
49
,9
7
36
,1
3
15
5
40
,4
±
6
,8
–
0,
9
39
,3
±
6
,7
11
,9
60
,7
±
4
,1
1,
0
61
,0
±
3
,9
5,
6
12
,9
±
1
,2
–
0,
3
12
,7
±
1
,0
2,
0
1,
25
±
0
,0
8
0,
04
1,
28
±
0
,0
7
–
0,
01
K
ro
p
yv
n
yt
sk
yi
50
,4
0
30
,5
7
16
7
38
,2
±
7
,9
–
0,
9
37
,0
±
7
,7
6,
6
60
,8
±
4
,6
0,
4
60
,6
±
4
,6
3,
8
13
,2
±
1
,3
–
0,
3
12
,9
±
1
,1
1,
1
1,
29
±
0
,0
8
0,
03
1,
31
±
0
,0
7
0,
04
K
yi
v
47
,8
0
35
,0
2
11
2
35
,0
±
7
,9
0,
1
33
,8
±
7
,7
8,
6
59
,3
±
4
,6
0,
9
59
,0
±
4
,6
5,
4
12
,9
±
1
,3
–
0,
3
12
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±
1
,1
1,
5
1,
30
±
0
,0
9
0,
04
1,
33
±
0
,0
7
0,
06
L
u
ts
k
50
,7
25
,5
23
2
37
,4
±
7
,8
0,
5
36
,6
±
7
,2
5,
7
60
,8
±
4
,6
1,
0
60
,7
±
4
,6
2,
7
13
,4
±
1
,2
–
0,
3
13
,1
±
1
,1
0,
2
1,
30
±
0
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9
0,
06
1,
33
±
0
,0
8
0,
02
O
d
es
a
50
,7
25
,5
23
2
37
,7
±
6
,2
–
0,
4
36
,9
±
5
,4
11
,5
58
,1
±
3
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0,
7
58
,2
±
3
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8,
2
12
,2
±
1
,1
–
0,
5
11
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±
0
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1,
9
1,
19
±
0
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0,
04
1,
21
±
0
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7
0,
11
S
im
fe
ro
p
o
l
46
,4
3
30
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7
42
36
,5
±
5
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4,
3
37
,7
±
5
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8,
8
58
,1
±
3
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2,
5
59
,0
±
3
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3,
4
11
,1
±
1
,1
0,
6
11
,2
±
0
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1,
9
1,
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±
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8
0,
02
1,
22
±
0
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7
–
0,
07
S
u
m
y
44
,6
8
34
,1
3
18
1
38
,1
±
8
,0
–
1,
2
37
,0
±
8
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–
0,
4
61
,5
±
4
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0,
1
61
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±
5
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0,
1
13
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±
1
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–
0,
7
13
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±
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±
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0,
05
1,
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±
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7
0,
01
T
er
n
o
p
o
l
49
,5
3
25
,6
7
32
9
31
,8
±
6
,8
–
1,
9
30
,2
±
7
,3
10
,5
57
,1
±
3
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1
–
0,
2
56
,6
±
4
,3
6,
3
11
,8
±
1
,1
–
0,
4
11
,5
±
1
,1
1,
6
1,
28
±
0
,0
7
0,
04
1,
30
±
0
,0
7
0,
07
Z
h
yt
o
m
yr
50
,2
3
28
,7
3
22
4
33
,1
±
7
,9
–
0,
3
31
,9
±
7
,7
6,
2
58
,1
±
4
,5
0,
2
57
,7
±
4
,5
3,
4
12
,3
±
1
,2
–
0,
3
12
,0
±
1
,1
0,
9
1,
30
±
0
,0
9
0,
03
1,
31
±
0
,0
7
0,
09
Z
ap
o
ri
zh
zh
ia
50
,2
3
28
,7
3
22
4
41
,7
±
7
,3
–
4,
5
39
,5
±
7
,4
5,
8
62
,5
±
4
,2
–
1,
8
61
,6
±
4
,4
3,
6
13
,7
±
1
,1
–
0,
9
13
,3
±
1
,1
1,
4
1,
28
±
0
,0
7
0,
04
1,
30
±
0
,0
7
0,
04
U
k
ra
in
e
(a
ve
ra
g
e
fo
r
31
s
ta
ti
on
s)
36
,7
±
6
,2
–
1,
58
35
,4
±
6
,1
6,
0
59
,7
±
3
,6
–
0,
1
59
,3
±
3
,6
3,
6
12
,6
±
1
,1
–
0,
5
12
,3
±
0
,9
4
1,
1
1,
28
±
0
,0
7
0,
04
1,
30
±
0
,0
7
0,
06
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 87
lues are increased (KG by 6 % per 100 years
and KJ�R by 4 % per 100 years). The tem-
perature amplitude is decreased by � 0.5 ±
± 0.2 °Ñ per 100 years for the period of 1900�
2017 and intensively increased by 1.1 ± 0.6 °Ñ
per 100 years for the period of 1970�2017.
The variations of the continentality indi-
ces KG , KJ�R and A for the period of 1900�
2017 in Ukraine are shown in Fig. 1. As we
can see, some cycles are observed in their
century course: a decrease in 1905�1920,
1940�1960, 1975�1995 and an increase in
1920�1940, 1960�1975 and 1995�2017 with
the range of ∼ 5�10 %.
Truly, such periods of fluctuations in the
continentality indices and the amplitude of
the seasonal temperature variation were ob-
served throughout in the 20th century and
at the beginning of the 21st century.
The increase of the values of continen-
tality indices and the amplitude of seaso-
nal temperature variation for the last 30�
45 years are noted, which is associated with
increase in the frequency of anomalously
high temperatures, especially in summer
are noted. It has been suggested, that in
accordance with our earlier hypothesis, this
is the result of the shifting of the northern
periphery of the subtropical anticyclones
zone, including, to the territory of Ukraine
[Voloshchuk, Boychenko, 2003].
About the dependence of amplitude of
seasonal temperature variation on latitude,
longitude, and altitude above sea level. The
climatic characteristics of the meteorological
elements of the region depend on the geo-
graphic coordinates and altitude of the terra-
in above sea level, which therefore constitu-
te a set of multifactorial climatic fields, and
the microscale features of the terrain where
the stations are located and generate a cer-
tain �microclimatic noise� [Voloshchuk et
Fig. 1. Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index the amplitudes of seasonal tem-
perature variation in Ukraine in the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century (1 �
sliding averaging, 2 � linear trend).
S. BOYCHENKO, V. VOLOSHCHUK, T. KUCHMA, N. SERDYUCHENKO
88 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018
al., 2002; Boychenko, Serdyuchenko, 2005].
Analysis of the latitude, longitude and al-
titude distributions of the amplitude of the
seasonal temperature variation (A) for the
period of 1961�1990 in the territory of Uk-
raine was showed, that it varies by 0.10 °Ñ
per 1° latitude, by 0.15 °Ñ per 1° longitu-
de and by �0.3 °Ñ per 100 m height above
sea level [Boychenko, 2017] (Fig. 2).
Phase shift of seasonal temperature va-
riation. Insolation, which is the main clima-
te-forming factor, has a clearly expressed zo-
nal distribution with typical seasonal varia-
tions [Oliver, 2005]. The features of the dis-
tribution and properties of the earth�s sur-
face and seas, as well as the circulation of
the atmosphere, have a definite effect on
the amplitude of the annual temperature
of the region and cause a shift in the ther-
mal wave in accordance with the radiative
wave, there by forming its asymmetry, and
changing its sinusoidal type.
The harmonic oscillation parameter F is
the criterion of asymmetry and shift of the
seasonal variation of average temperature
with consideration the first harmonic the
phase F (see equation (3)).
In studies conducted for the Southern
Hemisphere [Minetti, 1989], it was shown
that at a temperature regime with a maxi-
mum in January and a minimum in July,
the phase F for a sinusoidal wave is 1.57
(from 1.81 to 1.03). According to the valu-
es of the phase F, Minetti�s classified the
climate as follows: if the values are above
1.55 it is the continental climate, 1.29�1.55
it is the coastal and transitional climate and
less than 1.29 it is the marine climate.
With regard to the position of the maxi-
mum and minimum of heat wave for a gi-
ven region, it shifts from 15 days to one
month in continental regions and from 15
days to two months in the oceanic regions.
There is a certain shift in year-to-year chan-
ges, in particular in the position of the ma-
ximum in December or February and the
minimum in June or August. It has been
shown, that the phase of the first harmonic
of the seasonal wave of temperature is a go-
od climatic indicator of continental effects.
Fig. 2. Dependence of the amplitude of seasonal
temperature variation from latitude (a), longitude
(b) and height above sea level (c) on the territory
of Ukraine (average for the period 1961�1990).
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 89
The conducted studies of the seasonal
temperature variation for the territory of Uk-
raine showed that the asymmetry and the
phase shift are distinctive also. The phases
of seasonal temperature variation are F =
= 1.28 ± 0.07 for the period of 1900�2017
and F = 1.30 ± 0.07 for the period of 1970�
2017 (F , unit of measure per month) (see
table). The maximum and minimum of the
phase of the seasonal temperature variati-
ons are formed around 19�28 of January
and 19�28 of July.
In accordance with the climate classifi-
cation by Minetti�s , based on a changes of
the parameter F, the territory of Ukraine is
transitional from continental to the marine
type. Apparently, for the Northern Hemi-
sphere, the climate classification by the shift
of the seasonal temperature variation taking
into account the phase F, should be clarified.
The analysis of the parameter F chang-
es in the territory of Ukraine showed a slight
increase in the range from 0.01 to 0.08 for
100 years (0.04 for 100 years) for the period
of 1900�2017 and a slight increase in the
range from �0.04 to 0.11 for 100 years (0.06
for 100 years) for the period 1970�2017.
There are some trends in the phase shift
of the seasonal temperature variation un-
der the climate change impact, so the phase
shifts are 1.9 ± 1.1 days in later seasons in
Fig. 3. Long-time changes of the phase of seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine for the 20th
century and at the beginning of the 21th century (1 � sliding averaging, 2 � linear trend).
general for the territory of Ukraine.
The variation of the phase shift of the
seasonal temperature variation on the ter-
ritory of Ukraine for the period of 1900�
2017 is shows on Fig. 3. The maximum va-
lue of the parameter F is characteristic for
the northwestern regions, and the minimum
values are in the southern regions of Ukraine.
Some asymmetry and phase shift of sea-
sonal temperature variation are the cause
of climate change. In publication [Stine et
al., 2009] it is noted, that the trend of tempe-
rature amplitude is negative, and is associ-
ated with the observation that in winter on
average warms up faster than in summer
and that leads to a displacement of the am-
plitude phase.
The phase trend of the annual surface
temperature cycle on hemisphere shifts to
earlier seasons by 1.7 days between 1954
and 2007, however, it contrast to the direc-
tion that are observed for central England
and other regions. The tendencies these pa-
rameters on hemisphere are significant, but
at the regional level are disjointed.
The spatial-temporal distribution of con-
tinentality indices (KG) and (KJ�R), ampli-
tude (A) and phase (F) of seasonal tempera-
ture variation in the territory of Ukraine (the
average for the periods 1900�2017) and trends
of these parameters are shown in Fig. 4.
S. BOYCHENKO, V. VOLOSHCHUK, T. KUCHMA, N. SERDYUCHENKO
90 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018
Fig. 4. The spatial-temporal distribution of continentality indices KG (a) and KJ�R (c) and ampli-
tude A (e) and phase of seasonal temperature variations F (g) on the territory of Ukraine for the
periods of 1900�2017 and trends of these parameters (b, d, f, h).
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 91
Ïðîäîëæåíèå Fig. 4 (Fig. 4, ñ, d).
S. BOYCHENKO, V. VOLOSHCHUK, T. KUCHMA, N. SERDYUCHENKO
92 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018
Ïðîäîëæåíèå Fig. 4 (Fig. 4, e, f).
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 93
Ïðîäîëæåíèå Fig. 4 (Fig. 4, g, h).
S. BOYCHENKO, V. VOLOSHCHUK, T. KUCHMA, N. SERDYUCHENKO
94 Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018
Long-time changes of the thermal continentality
index, the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal
temperature variation in Ukraine
S. Boychenko, V. Voloshchuk, T. Kuchma, N. Serdyuchenko, 2018
Special features of spatial-temporal variations of continentality indices Gorczynsky
and Johanson�Ringleb as well as an amplitude and phase of the seasonal change of
temperature in the territory of Ukraine under conditions of global warming have been
analyzed. Long-term empirical data (average month temperature) have been used obta-
ined in the net of meteorological stations of Ukraine evenly located in the plain terri-
tory of Ukraine (height not more than 350 m above sea level) during the period 1900�
2017. The changes of amplitude and phase of seasonal temperature variations were
studied with the help of Fourier analysis. It has been found that against the backgro-
und of general decrease of the values of continentality indices of the climate in the ter-
ritory of Ukraine during the period 1900�2017 (due to considerable warming in the
cold period of the year) increasing tendencies (KG by 6 % per 100 years and KJ�R by
4 % per 100 years) are observed for the period 1970�2017 (due to temperature growth
during warm season, especially in August). Temperature amplitude in the 20th century
and at the beginning of the 21st century decreases by �0.50.2 °Ñ during 100 years, and
during the period 1970�2017 increases intensively by 1.1 ± 0.6 °Ñ during 100 years.
Some trend of the shift of the phase of seasonal temperature fluctuations under the in-
fluence of climate changes exists because the phase has displaced by 1.9 ± 1.1 days
during later seasons as a whole for the territory of Ukraine.
Key words: climate change, climate of Ukraine, thermal index of continentality, am-
plitude and phase of seasonal fluctuations of temperature.
Conclusions. The features of the space-
time variations of Gorczynsky and Johan-
son�Ringleb continentality indices, as well
as the amplitude and phase of the season-
al temperature variation in the territory of
Ukraine under conditions of the global war-
ming were analyzed.
The long-term empirical data (average
monthly temperature) of the network of me-
teorological observation stations in the terri-
tory of Ukraine that are evenly located on
the plains of Ukraine (the height above the
sea level is not exceeding 350 m) for the
period of 1900�2017 were analyzed.
It was established that against the back-
ground of a general decrease in values of
the continentality climate indices in the ter-
ritory of Ukraine for the period of 1900�
2017 (due to the significant warming dur-
ing the cold period of the year), there are
the increasing trends (KG by 6 % per 100
years and KJ�R by 4 % per 100 years) for
the period of 1970�2017 (due to the tem-
perature rise in the warm season, especial-
ly in May�August). The amplitude of tem-
perature for the 20th century and at the be-
ginning of the 21st century decreased by
� 0.5 ± 0.2 °Ñ per 100 years, and in the pe-
riod of 1970�2017 intensively increased by
1.1 ± 0.6 °Ñ per 100 years. There were some
trends of phase shift of the seasonal tempe-
rature variation under the climate change
impact, so the phase shifts are 1.9 ± 1.1 da-
ys in later seasons in general for the terri-
tory of Ukraine.
Noted, that the increase of the continen-
tality indices values and the amplitude of
temperature for the last 30�45 years, is as-
sociated with the increase in the frequen-
cy of anomaly high temperatures, especial-
ly in summer. It has been suggested, that
in accordance with our earlier hypothesis,
it is possible, this is the result of the shift of
the northern periphery of the subtropical
anticyclones zone, including to the territo-
ry of Ukraine.
LONG-TIME CHANGES OF THE THERMAL CONTINENTALITY INDEX ...
Ãåîôèçè÷åñêèé æóðíàë ¹ 3, Ò. 40, 2018 95
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