Моделювання військових конфліктів з використанням байєсових мереж
General approaches to modeling military conflicts are considered. A probabilistic and statistical model for computing probability of a military conflict in the form of Bayesian network was constructed. The complexity of modeling military conflicts is due to the high dynamics of interacting systems w...
Збережено в:
| Дата: | 2018 |
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| Автори: | , , |
| Формат: | Стаття |
| Мова: | Ukrainian |
| Опубліковано: |
The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"
2018
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| Теми: | |
| Онлайн доступ: | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/126680 |
| Теги: |
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| Назва журналу: | System research and information technologies |
Репозитарії
System research and information technologies| Резюме: | General approaches to modeling military conflicts are considered. A probabilistic and statistical model for computing probability of a military conflict in the form of Bayesian network was constructed. The complexity of modeling military conflicts is due to the high dynamics of interacting systems with many unknown or non-measurable variables and parameters. The constructed model takes into consideration incompleteness and fuzziness of the available information. The purpose of the model is not only in revealing existing links and dependencies between the processes selected, but also in forecasting the probability of future conflicts using results of the analysis of the current situation. A modeling was performed using available statistical data, a series of computational experiments was fulfilled and analysis of the results was performed. Statistical data was taken from open sources. The constructed model was used for computing the probability of internal and external conflicts for Ukraine. The obtained numerical results correspond to the actual situation. |
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