Метод визначення та підвищення узгодженості експертних оцінок за підтримання прийняття групових рішень

• Main Authors: Tsyganok, Vitaliy V., Roik, Pavlo D.
• Format: Article
• Language: Ukrainian
• Published: The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2018
• Subjects: group decision making; expert estimation; index of consistency of expert estimates; spectral approach; consistency threshold; expert feedback; поддержка принятия групповых решений; экспертное оценивание; индекс согласованности экспертных оценок; спектральный подход; порог согласованности; обратная связь с экспертом; підтримка прийняття групових рішень; експертне оцінювання; індекс узгодженості експертних оцінок; спектральний підхід; поріг узгодженості; зворотний зв'язок з експертом
• Online Access: http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/131984

The issue of the assessment of an expert estimates consistency level for group decision making is considered. An analysis of bibliographic sources testifies that despite the availability of multiple practical tools and solutions for assessing the consistency index, all such methods have considerable shortcomings affecting significantly the accurateness of research results. The goal of this research paper is the development of a method for assessing the consistency between expert estimates, with the elimination of a number of key shortcomings of existing methods. It is suggested to calculate the consistency index using a spectral approach, under which expert estimates are presented as a spectrum on a bounded, continuous or discrete scale. The index is calculated as the normalized value of the sum of distances between expert estimates for all possible estimate pairs. This formula for calculating the consistency index has been tested for the function of squared pairwise differences in estimate pairs. The conducted analysis shows that the function of distance fits better for a detailed practical analysis of consistency between expert estimates. Imitation modeling has been carried out, and an evaluation has been offered for a threshold consistency value above which aggregation of expert estimates becomes possible. In order to make it possible to raise the level of consistency, a procedure for gathering feedback from an expert is proposed, provided that no pressure is put on him or her.