Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні
The outputs of technology foresight and conclusions drawn for different systems would principally differ. Each country, and in the first turn Ukraine, should independently sort out the problem of innovation development. Here the mathematical and software platform of scenario analysis and development...
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| author | Zgurovsky, M. Z. |
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"author": "M. Z. Zgurovsky",
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| description | The outputs of technology foresight and conclusions drawn for different systems would principally differ. Each country, and in the first turn Ukraine, should independently sort out the problem of innovation development. Here the mathematical and software platform of scenario analysis and development of complex of activities on technology foresight in Ukraine are proposed. Organization of a complex of activities on technology foresight is given. |
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© M. Zgurovsky, 2003
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 7
TIДC
НОВІ МЕТОДИ
В СИСТЕМНОМУ АНАЛІЗІ, ІНФОРМАТИЦІ
ТА ТЕОРІЇ ПРИЙНЯТТЯ РІШЕНЬ
UDC 517.711.3
THE SCENARIO ANALYSIS PLATFORM AS A
METHODOLOGICAL BASE OF THE NATIONAL FORESIGHT
PROGRAM OF UKRAINE
M. ZGUROVSKY
The outputs of technology foresight and conclusions drawn for different systems
would principally differ. Each country, and in the first turn Ukraine, should inde-
pendently sort out the problem of innovation development. Here the mathemati-
cal and software platform of scenario analysis and development of complex of ac-
tivities on technology foresight in Ukraine are proposed. Organization of a complex
of activities on technology foresight is given.
Let us consider two aspects of technology foresight — establishing the mathe-
matical and software platform of scenario analysis and development of complex
of activities on technology foresight in Ukraine.
Availability in Ukraine of powerful scientific schools in the field of mathematics,
cybernetics and programming forms the basis for the first aspect. Therefore,
Ukraine also could make its contribution to development of technology foresight.
The second part of the report will deal with organization of a complex of
activities on technology foresight. In this respect Ukraine will need recommendations
from other countries which have considerable experience in organization and
conduction of such activities.
Challenges and threats of the modern world in which severe competition is
dominating make it necessary to foresee on the objective basis at least indicative
scenarios of future events. It is required for formulating rational and unmistakable
strategy of development of any organized community (nation, country, institution
or company).
It should be pointed out that today there are no universal and comprehensive
solutions of future events foresight, there exist only attempts of constructing pos-
sible scenarios of these or those future events. But the principal difference lies in
the fact that for solving these problems the methods used are qualitative, but not
quantitative in their nature.
1. SCENARIO ANALYSIS PLATFORM
Today a number of qualitative analysis methods is known. These methods are
used at certain stages of future events foresee. But none of them solves fully the
defined problem. First of all, because foresight is the process of application of
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 8
certain methods in some sequence establishing the determined interrelations be-
tween them. The above-mentioned process can be formed with the help of more
universal mathematical, logical and software platform named scenario analysis
platform [1], which is the complex of knowledge, mathematical, software and
logical tools for determination of the sequence of their application, their intercon-
nection and in general formation of the foresight process. This platform is meth-
odological body of the National Foresight Program. It was worked out at the Insti-
tute for Applied System Analysis which belongs to the National Technical
University of Ukraine «KPI».
The eight qualitative analysis methods are used in this platform for solving
the foresight problems. Their comparative characteristics are given in Table 1.
T a b l e 1 . Comparative characteristics of quantitative analysis methods and
conditions of their application
Conditions and peculiarities of application
Methods
Required conditions Requirement of powerful
software facilities
Method of
scanning
1. Availability of expert groups in different
fields of knowledge.
Requires network software and
hardware for on-line operation
Brainstorm
method
1. Availability of some expert groups in narrow
fields of knowledge.
2. Applied at the first stage of scanning method.
Requires network software and
hardware for on-line operation
Delphi
method
1. Availability of an expert group in certain
field of knowledge.
2. Easiness of collection, preparation and proc-
essing of information.
Requires network software and
hardware for on-line operation
Method of
cross impact
1. Used at the first stage of Delphi method.
2. Experts are to access simple and conditional
probabilities of events and scenarios.
3. With the help of mathematical programming
the computational values of possible events
and scenarios probability are searched.
Requires powerful software
facilities for programming
complicated systems
Saaty method
1. Should be based on the Delphi method ap-
plication, in case the possible scenarios can-
not be verbally described.
2. Highly qualified experts in the field of net-
work theory are required.
3. With the help of mathematical programming
the computational values of possible scenarios
probability are searched.
Requires application of power-
ful software for information
processing in hierarchy net-
works.
Method of
morphological
analysis
1. Specialists in the field of the sets theory.
2. Calculation of possible scenarios searching
for crossings of morphological spaces of char-
acteristic parameters for investigated systems.
Requires application of power-
ful software
Method of
scenarios writ-
ing
1. Requires system analysts of high qualification.
2. Based upon qualitative analysis methods,
introduction of empirical assumptions and
system construction of integral analysis.
Requires application of power-
ful software for imitation of
scenarios modeling
Method of
Bayes models
1. Requires analysts in the field of probability
theory and random values.
2. To be used in addition to other qualitative
analysis methods for checking the degree of
confidence of the constructed possible scenarios.
Requires application of power-
ful software
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 9
It should be noted that in solving practical problems of foresight on the basis
of Scenario Analysis Platform (SAP) the estimates are received, as a rule, by
Internet in on-line mode.
In Scenario Analysis Platform the qualitative analysis methods are used at
four different stages.
At the first stage (Fig. 1) for preliminary study of the foresight problem the
methods of scanning and brainstorm are consistently used.
At the second stage (Fig. 2) for carrying out all-round qualitative analysis of
the problem the most frequently used methods are Delphi, Saaty, Cross — Impact
and Morphological Analysis. They may be used separately or as a combination of
methods depending on the peculiarities of this problem.
Delphi
method
CCrroossss iimmppaacctt
mmeetthhoodd
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mmeetthhoodd
MMeetthhooddss ooff
mmoorrpphhoollooggiiccaall
aannaallyyssiiss
SSttaaggee 22
QQuuaalliittaattiivvee aannaallyyssiiss mmeetthhooddss
Fig. 2. Qualitative analyses of the problem
The first consideration of the problem
in the wide context
Generation of various ideas
Ideas clustering
Selection of «constructive» clusters
Scanning method Brainstorm method
Group ooff ееxxppeerrttss GGrroouupp ooff eexxppeerrttss
Profound study of the problem in
narrow context for each cluster
Generation of ideas for the selected
cluster
Division of ideas respective to the
time period
Stage 1
Preliminary study of the problem
Fig. 1. Preliminary study of the problem
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 10
At the third stage (Fig. 3) empirical nine-step procedure of scenario con-
struction [ 2 ] can be used.
And at the last fourth stage (Fig. 4) the scenarios are presented to a group of
people who are to take strategic decisions and comprehensive analysis of these
scenarios is carried out in accordance with the following procedure:
• determination of the confidence level of each scenario;
• estimation of scenarios probability;
• estimation of risks connected with each of the scenarios;
• selection of the most acceptable scenarios from the point of view of the
above criteria.
Estimation of scenarios probability in Scenario Analysis Platform is done by
means of the Bayes method which consists in determination of conditional prob-
abilities of implementation of this or that scenario.
( )
( )
.
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...
,
,...,,
...
,
,...,
111
21
2
1
0
111
210
1
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⎝
⎛
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⎠
⎞
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⎝
⎛
⎟⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜⎜
⎝
⎛
⎟
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎜
⎝
⎛
××⎟
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎜
⎝
⎛
⎟
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎜
⎝
⎛
=⎟⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜⎜
⎝
⎛
−
=
=
−
∑
Ni
NC
i
C
i
C
K
i
i
Nj
NC
j
C
j
C
j
N
jC
ППC
П
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P
C
П
PCP
ППC
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ПC
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PCP
ПП
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P N
Definition of the purpose of scenario writing
Development of STEEPPV program
Introduction of assumption to the scenario
Construction of alternative events scheme
Scenario writing
Scenario analysis taking into account branching and
turning points
Statement of the policy for the scenario subject
(person, institution, country)
Evaluation of alternative strategies by means of
imitation modeling method
1.
3.
4.
7.
5.
6.
8.
Development of alternative strategies of the
scenario subjects behavior
9.
2.
Fig. 3. Scenario writing (Dennis Loveridge)
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 11
The method is applied in accordance with the corresponding algorithm at
separate stages of which Delphi method, Bayes formula and powerful software
for graphic presentation of the analysis results are used. After experts have ana-
lyzed the obtained results the final conclusions are made regarding the probability
of the studied scenarios.
For all the above-indicated methods used in the course of scenario analysis
the output data are the conclusions made by experts or analysts involved in solv-
ing the specific problems of technology foresight. Such conclusions are always
made on the basis of knowledge, experience, intuition and reason of profes-
sionals in this or that field. Therefore, the results obtained by means of the con-
sidered methods are only approximations of what is going to take place in reality.
The typical foresight cycle in Scenario Analysis Platform is shown in Fig. 5.
The software used in this platform (Fig. 6) is the network information system
of decision making for future scenarios construction. It includes the special
mathematical apparatus which realizes the scenario analysis technology given
above. A convenient and flexible user interface making it possible by Internet to
involve experts and quickly obtain and process their decisions, organize
communication, interaction and information exchange among them and the plat-
form.
Based upon the chosen methods for the system development the main com-
ponents are to be realized in Java language. Today Java-technologies are in de-
velopment of corporate systems for decision making support, systems appropriate
to the scale of transnational corporations, Internet-systems and systems working
under heterogeneous medium conditions. This approach has a number of consid-
erable advantages for development of distributed systems and Internet-systems:
complete initially object-oriented component model which does not depend upon
the computer architecture and the installed operational system, which makes it
possible for any Internet user to use this system without thinking about hardware
Estimation
of risk
Selection of
scenarios
Group of people
taking strategic
decisions
Procedure of
confidence level
determination
Imitation
modeling
Evaluation of
scenarios
probability
1
2
N
Sc
en
ar
io
s
Fig. 4. Submission of scenarios to the group of People
Taking strategic decision
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 12
compatibility. In the process of development a special attention is paid to further
application of the system in Internet with the possibility of drawing experts from
all over the world. Any Internet-oriented information system has to take into ac-
Fig. 6. Scenario analysis platform overview
Statement of the
problem
Estimation
probability
of scenarios
Accumulation of
data and knowledge
Scenarios analysis
and decision making
Presentation of
results and
scenarios writing
4 stage
Gains
of foresight
process
Methods
of qualitative
analysis
System methodology
Application
Estimation of
research fields and
determination of
research boudaries
3 stage
2 stage
1 stage
Fig. 5. Typical foresight SAP cycle
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 13
count the peculiarities of working with users who are far apart from each other. In
particular, while conducting survey of experts living in different parts of the
world, one should take into account the difference in time zones (the system must
be accessible in on-line mode on the twenty-four hours basis), difference in the
languages being used and also different level of experts’ computer mastery. In
connection with the above the functions of internationalization and multilingual
support are provided. Application of the web-interface will allow remote users to
use the software which is familiar to them.
The described information system of technology foresight is realized as a
distributed cross-platform system built on the client-server architecture.
The component approach allows to present the system in the form of 3 levels
hierarchy: as shown in Fig. 7.
System technological management level carries out a dialogue with the
user. It comprises modules of system control and the modules of interaction with
experts via Internet in on-line mode. The plotting module is provided for visual
presentation of the expert examination results and other analytical information.
And here the experts and remote users make use of the operational system and
Internet browser familiar to them. The module of multilingual support will allow
dynamically form the web-interface for remote users in the language preferable
for them.
Fig. 7. Scenario Analysis Platform Architecture
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 14
System organization level realizes the main algorithms of the system and is
realized in a number of functionally independent sets of data processing methods.
• Contains the mechanisms of system administration, of projects and exper-
tise control, descriptions of a problem domain, realization of technology foresight
methods.
• Is responsible for users management, users access level to the system and
projects management.
• Includes all the necessary procedures for expert examinations: definition
and formalization of the problem in the object domain, invitation of experts and
determination of their competence level, appointment and conduction of expert
examination rounds, experts survey and processing of the received answers.
• Uses formalization of the problem, definition of the problem expertise,
determination of questionnaires structure, scales construction, questionnaires gen-
eration in accordance with the assigned structure, assigning the objects of expert
examination.
• Contains a set of mathematical methods of information processing based
upon fuzzy logic.
Data formation level uses one of 12 relational systems of databases control
most popular today and is based upon object-relational approach of data conver-
sion, which allow taking into account the advantages of both object-oriented and
relational approach. The main tasks of the storage sub-system are:
• storage of information about all users of the system and about experts
who are involved in expert examination in on-line mode;
• storage of data for description of the objects under study;
• storage of hierarchy structure and the questionnaires content;
• storage of information about all stages of expert examinations conduction
and their results;
• storage of experts’ answers at all stages of expert examination and results
of their processing;
• storage of the proximity measure of answers and the chosen scales of ex-
pert examination;
• storage of housekeeping information.
In addition, the apparatus of fuzzy sets are used in this project. It allows to
embrace a wide class of expert reviews with fuzzy data, which ensures consider-
able flexibility of all methods of fuzzy information processing.
Now we consider an example of Delphi method realization based upon clas-
sic principles of expert examination organization proceeding from the modern
requirements to the apparatus for solution of technology foresight system prob-
lems. Mathematical processing of expert data is carried out at higher community
level as compared to problems of any particular expert examination, which allows
the Delphi method procedure to work in any metric space irrespective of what
type of data are presented in this space (Fig. 8).
The peculiar feature of Delphi method presented in this development is high
flexibility of individual and group analysis algorithms of expert information
achieved by independent many-dimensional processing of expert data in regard of
various properties of the object being examined.
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 15
Let us consider in more detail the procedure of the Delphi method realization
by the example of analysis of the results obtained in the first round of expert ex-
amination, in which five experts give estimations, jQ~ 5,1=j of some property
jQ for object under study. These estimations include the quantitative and interval
value of the studied properties and the level of the expert’s confidence in his es-
timation (Table 2). At any stage of examination an expert may be suggested to
argue his estimations. Since the procedure of group and individual analysis of ex-
pert estimations is many-dimensional, processing of the current property estima-
tions goes independently of other characteristics under study.
T a b l e 2 . Developing of fuzzy estimation jQ~ .
Level p Quantitative
description
Qualitative
description
Confidence estimation
jpµ
1 extremely low [0,00÷0,10] 0,01
2 very low [0,10÷0,25] 0,30
3 low [0,25÷0,40] 0,50
4 medium [0,40÷0,60] 0,80
5 high [0,60÷0,75] 0,40
6 very high [0,75÷0,90] 0,20
7 extremely high [0,90÷1,00] 0,01
The estimation jQ~ given by an expert is processed through construction of
the membership function for the fuzzy value )(xjµ at discrete levels )(, xx jpµ ,
as shown on Fig. 9 for the first expert.
End
Start
Start new tour
Individual analysis for each expert. Answers get
weights
General analysis. Median & Trusted set are found for each
answer for all experts.
Searching for consensus
Experts are proposed to improve
their answers Consensus found
Consensus not found
Fig. 8. The Delphi Method Procedure
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 16
To determine two main characteristics of the obtained set of expert estima-
tions of each property of the studied object (medium M and confidence set T) on
fuzzy values the 1L metrics is introduced by:
( ) ( ) ( )∫ −=
1
0
2121, dxxx µµµµρ .
With the above metrics the medium estimation M is determined by
( )
⎟
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎜
⎝
⎛
== ∑
==
∗
5
15,1
~,~minarg~
q
qj
j
j QQQM ρ
and can be found from the distance matrix ( ){ }qp µµρ ,=D , 5,1, =qp
Distance matrix
0,000000 0,149286 0,093881 0,142629 0,245376
0,149286 0,000000 0,107801 0,158109 0,334713
0,093881 0,107801 0,000000 0,101319 0,248917
0,142629 0,158109 0,101319 0,000000 0,279179
0,245376 0,334713 0,248917 0,279179 0,000000
Estimation divergences
0,631172 0,749909 0,551918 0,681235 1,108184
as estimation with minimal row sum. With the other four fuzzy estimations shown
on Fig, 10 and corresponding row sums shown on Fig. 11, medium is the estima-
tion of third expert.
f(x)
x
Fig. 9. Estimation of the first expert (trusted).
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 17
At the first round of the expert examination the confidence set T is deter-
mined as half of the estimations less distant from the medium estimation. Confi-
dence set can be found using divergence vector ( ){ }MQpj
M ,~ρ=d , 5,1=p
Estimation divergences
0,093881 0,107801 0,000000 0,101319 0,248917
that is shown on Fig. 12. It is now clear, that the estimations of first and fourth
experts are hitting confidence set as the two less distant from the medium estima-
tion. The important characteristic of the confidence set T used in the course of
analysis of the next round of expert examination is the radius of the confidence
set TR determined as
( )( )MQR j
TQ
T ,~max~ ρ
∈
=
where M is the estimate which has become the medium. In our example,
1013,0=TR .
f(x)
x
f(x)
x
1 2
3 4
f(x)
x
f(x)
x
Fig. 10. Estimation of the experts
1 — Estimation of the second expert (not trusted)
2 — Estimation of the third expert (medium)
3 — Estimation of the fourth expert (trusted)
4 — Estimation of the fifth expert (not trusted)
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 18
At the next rounds of the expert examination the experts are informed about
the results of the previous rounds including the fact of each expert’s estimation
hitting or not hitting the confidence set. After that “the dissidents” are asked to
reconsider their estimations and, in case of refusal, to give their arguments. The
experts whose estimations hit the confidence set also may change their opinion.
After receiving new estimations the medium estimation and confidence set are
determined again, and for forming the confidence set, it is not the number of the
estimates hitting it is fixed, but the radius TR at the previous round level.
If in the obtained confidence set more expert estimates got in it than in the
previous round, then there is the convergence of the experts’ opinion. In case if
convergence is also observed he subsequent rounds of expert examination, the
expert estimation of the studied object properties is considered completed. The
main criterion of completion of estimation of the studied object properties is when
the number of expert estimates of each property of the studied object a priori as-
signed in per cent number hits the confidence set. The data of the confidence set
for each property of the studied object is used for formation of the most agreed
results of the expert examination.
Fig.11. Row sums for estimations
Fig.12. Estimations divergence
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 19
The highest and lowest estimates of the studied object properties form the
sets of optimistic and pessimistic estimates, respectively (Fig. 13). These esti-
mates are used accordingly for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of develop-
ment by the suggested algorithm. On completion of all necessary rounds of expert
examination, when all experts have reached consensus, the resulting decision is
taken which is proposed to a group of decision-makers in the form of a concep-
tion or strategy of development.
2. THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVITIES ON TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN UKRAINE
Now let us consider principles of technology foresight activities in Ukraine.
Proceeding from the strategic plans of Ukraine’s development till 2010 the
only possible way of its revival is identification of priority industries and a set of
so-called “breakthrough” technologies on which organizational, financial, scien-
tific and industrial resources of the country should be concentrated and, as a re-
sult, to enter the world markets with a group of competitive products and tech-
nologies.
At present Ukraine is to find the answers to the following questions: what
group of “export” products may bring success to Ukraine, what technologies are
to be developed or bought for this purpose, what industries should be regarded as
priority and, at last, what political, economic, organizational and other measures
are to be undertaken. If we assume that accurate and objective answers to these
questions are obtained, then a more complicated task will be set — that of taking
and consistent implementation of the corresponding strategic decisions.
To know how to act, first of all, it is necessary to take into account the ex-
perience gained by the advanced countries of the world in which at the national
level the problems of strategic planning of their development are being success-
fully solved and the plans are implemented.
Economic analysis of the priorities of technological development shows that
application of new technologies can be characterized by several criteria.
Fig. 13. Optimistic and Pessimistic Estimates
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 20
Based on these criteria, one can present a list of the most advanced, in tech-
nological respect, sectors of industry depending on volumes of introduction of crucial
technologies (the ordering of sectors corresponds to introduction amounts) (Table 3).
T a b l e 3 . Groups of most advanced sectors of industry
Index Branch of industry
Volume of budget financing of the indus-
tries in concern with development of
promising technologies and priority lines
of scientific-technical development
Aviation
Road construction and public construction
Metal structures and wareMicrobiology
Shipbuilding
Machine-building (without electro-engineering)
Apparatus production
Coal. Fuel
Electro-engineering
Volume of innovation costs
Power engineering, thermal power plants
Shipbuilding
Coal. Printing. Aviation
Light industry
Chemical and pharmaceutical industry
Color metallurgy
Electro-engineering
Introduction of new technological
processes
Shipbuilding
Automobile. Flour-milling
Aviation
Electro-engineering
Machines and tools
Tractors and agricultural machinery
Apparatus production
Production of household appliances and machines
Production of plumbing and gas equipment and articles.
Manufacture of new products
Road construction and public construction
Color metallurgy
Automobile
Flour-milling
Repair of machinery and equipment
Shipbuilding
Light industry
Machine-building (without electro-engineering)
Machines and tools
Printing
Specific volume of innovation costs in
concern with introduction of new
technological processes
Power-engineering, thermal powers plants
Printing
Light industry
Wood-processing and paper industry
Glass and porcelain industry
Color metallurgy
Chemical and oil-chemical
Chemical-pharmaceutical
Fuel
Food industry
Specific volume of innovation costs
in concern with mastering
of new products
Fuel
Shipbuilding
Aviation
Chemical-pharmaceutical
Printing
Electro-engineering
Food industry
Production of household appliances and machines
Light industry
Chemical and oil-chemical
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 21
These criteria were also prescribed on the basis of the National Technology
Foresight program which was adopted by the Government of Ukraine in Decem-
ber of 2001 [3].
The program deals with the complex of technology foresight works at the
governmental level.
The most significant elements of these activities are the following:
• Adoption of the state and national technology foresight program, as it has
been done in the countries of “the big seven”, European Union and a number of
other countries which are following the intensive development road. Such pro-
gram has been launched in Ukraine. We are to start its implementation.
• At the state level the steering committee on technology foresight is to be
set up which should consist of representatives of supreme governmental bodies in
charge of economic and industrial development of the country, authorized repre-
sentatives of such major ministries as the Ministry of Economy and European In-
tegration, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industrial Policy, Ministry of Educa-
tion and Science, scientists of related profile, leading industrialists from
strategically important regions and enterprises, outstanding public figures.
(Fig. 14).
• Setting up working groups of experts in the most important fields of in-
dustrial and scientific development of the country, these groups should consist of
the experts of the highest qualification in the corresponding fields.
LEVEL
OF STRATEGIC
DECISIONS MAKING Laws of Ukraine, Orders –
of President of Ukraine,
Governmental statements,
regulating acts
Amendments
and changes
of the program
National program of
technology foresight
Steering
committee
Group of interactive actions
and system research
Working group
of experts 1
Working group
of experts 2
Working group
of experts N
Industries, big enterprises, research institutions,
banking and financial field
Interactive
actions
Internet forums,
working
meetings, etc.
…
Fig. 14. Scheme of interactions of technology foresight works participants
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 22
• Creation of the so-called group of interactive interaction and system
studies which should consist of system analysts who will be able, on one hand, to
work in the interactive mode with the working groups in each of the fields and, on
the other hand, to carry out the necessary research, analyze, systematize and sub-
mit the obtained results to the committee. The latter will prepare its proposals in
the form of draft of Laws of Ukraine, drafts of Orders of President of Ukraine,
drafts of the governmental orders and regulatory statements, amendments and
changes to the state program on technology foresight for the country leaders with
the purpose of the final adoption of these proposals as strategic decisions.
• Selection of critical technologies and construction of optimal scenarios of
development of the priority industries and the state industrial sector based on
conduction of a complex of works on technology foresight.
In general these activities are divided into two qualitatively different parts –
short-term and long-term foresight. The short-term foresight activities consist of
identifying and referring to the group of critical technologies those important
technologies which are already well developed in Ukraine and for which there is
(or shortly there will be) demand in the world market. For example, for our coun-
country to such technologies may belong space and aviation technologies. By
applying the methods of system and scenario analysis along with the qualitative
analysis methods for the group of critical technologies, the scenarios and policy of
future technology development of the country for the period of 5 – 10 years are
worked out. The process of selection of the critical technologies and formation of
technology development policy is schematically shown in Fig. 16.
Fig. 16. Process of critical technologies selection (P. Bourgeois)
Policy
of the technology
development
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 23
The long-term forecast activities are for the period of time up to 20 years and
they are connected mostly with looking for new fields of activities in which
Ukraine has good preconditions for entering the world market and construction of
scenarios for conduction of the comprehensive complex of works aimed at crea-
tion of competitive critical technologies for these fields, provision of necessary
organizational, scientific, financial and other support. For example, Ukraine has
considerable unused resources in the field of production and highly technological
processing of various agricultural products, in development of many types of high
intellectual technologies with involvement of its own scientific potential (tech-
nologies of mathematical programming, biotechnologies, etc.)These programs
should be strategic, long-term programs for the period of 20–30 years.
3. THE REGIONAL COLLABORATION ON TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
Today the regional collaboration on technology foresight is very important
for Ukraine, especially in terms of how UNIDO could promote this co-
operation. There are few important priorities for Ukraine.
• First, elimination of the consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe,
which require a complex of scientific and research measures to utilize the sar-
cophagus, ecological recovery of the vast territory of the Eastern European region
(Ukraine, Belorus, Russia, Poland and other countries), putting the Chernobyl
Power Plant out of operation and utilization of nuclear fuel. Solving this problem
is of global importance and requires the efforts of the world community and in-
volvement of advanced technologies from all over the world;
• Second, solving the problem of the Black Sea contamination and related
problem of the Dnieper river basin. This problem causes concern not only of the
countries of the Black Sea region, but also the countries of Europe and Asia, since
solving these problems means reduction of contamination of such big rivers as
Danube, Dnieper, Don, South Bug, Dniestr and others. Here one should take into
consideration the extraction of oil and gas in the Black Sea shelf and other aspects
that influence the Black Sea contamination. The cascade of hydroelectric plants
on the Dnieper has already caused the climatic changes in Ukraine and a distor-
tion of balance at least at one stage may result in regional catastrophe. This global
problem is to be solved by the international community involving the most pro-
gressive technologies.
• Third, solving the problem of flooding and soil shifts in the Carpathean
Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania. The global warming up, unreasonable fell-
ing of the woods, deviation from the required technologies during dam construc-
tion result in tragic consequences in this region.
One country of this region alone cannot solve the above problem. It is by
common efforts of many countries applying new progressive technologies and
creating principally new technological solutions that the negative ecological con-
sequences in these regions can be reduced.
In its turn, possessing considerable scientific and technological potential
Ukraine can suggest to international community cooperation in the field of avia-
M. Zgurovsky
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2003, № 1 24
tion and space technologies (the “Sea Launch” project, joint manufacture of
AN-140, AN-70 airplanes and others), resources and energy saving and manage-
ment (economical heat power generating technologies), development of new sub-
stances and materials (materials with shape memory properties, bio-compatible
materials, materials with controllable functional properties), protection of natural
ecosystems and improvement of people’s living conditions (technologies of drink-
ing water purification, technologies of agricultural wastes processing) and others.
4. CONCLUSIONS
• Technology foresight is a very complicated process which is characterized
by considerable scope of research of interdisciplinary nature, voluntary nature of
criteria and objectives selection, presence of significant portion of so-called em-
piricism and indistinct foresight process, which causes certain risks of “not feel-
ing” or “not seeing” some important (critical) technology of the future. However,
as the experience of all developed countries of the world which are actively strug-
gling for possessing natural resources and markets for selling products and tech-
nologies has shown, there is no alternative to this approach. It has becoming the
necessary tool for governing institutions of all levels, from state and industrial
which are responsible for economic and industrial development of the country to
the management personnel of a separate enterprise, company or non-government
organization in the course of taking strategic decisions.
• Irrespective of the fact that technology foresight is an attempt to look into
the future, it should rely on realistic basis. Therefore, in the course of technology
foresight one should observe the condition that any desirable object of material
culture the creation of which is foreseen and expected by the society should be
demanded at the given stage of its development, and the material culture itself
must be able to create such a product.
• Methods of technology foresight and procedure of their application in this
or that field of human activities vary considerably. The invariable is the system
and scenario analysis methodology and the philosophy of innovation and renewal,
which demands training a new generation of specialists capable of large scale,
interdisciplinary, system thinking, able to effectively apply technology foresight
with the purpose of innovation development of a country, region or enterprise.
• Some countries, Ukraine among them, may consider that due to methodo-
logical complexity and considerable expenses required for practical implementa-
tion of technology foresight, it would be much easier and cheaper to buy the re-
sults of its application for the similar branches in other countries and to use the
results, however, it is impossible, since groups of participants of innovation de-
velopment and connections between them in each country have their peculiarities.
Therefore, it is practically impossible to find two identical systems in the world.
As a result, the outputs of technology foresight and conclusions drawn for dif-
ferent systems would principally differ. Therefore, each country, and in the first
turn Ukraine, should independently sort out the problem of innovation develop-
ment.
The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2003, № 1 25
REFERENCES
1. Zgurovsky M. Z. The Role of Technology Foresight in Economic Transformations of
Ukraine. The Proceedings of the UNIDO Technology Foresight Summit, Buda-
pest, Hungary, 26 – 28 of March, 2003.
2. Loveridge Denis. Technology Forecasting and Foresight: pedantry or disciplined vi-
sion/Ideas in Progress. — 1997. — № 2.
3. Technology Foresight as a Systemic Methodology of Innovative Development of
Ukraine. The State Scientific Program of Ukraine. Approved by Resolution
№ 1716 as of 24 December 2001.
Received 14.12.2002
|
| id | journaliasakpiua-article-175035 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:25:56Z |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/ca/010304a836c22bf638c84b36c07953ca.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-1750352019-08-07T15:26:01Z The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine Платформа сценарного анализа как основа методологии национальной программы предвидения в Украине Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні Zgurovsky, M. Z. The outputs of technology foresight and conclusions drawn for different systems would principally differ. Each country, and in the first turn Ukraine, should independently sort out the problem of innovation development. Here the mathematical and software platform of scenario analysis and development of complex of activities on technology foresight in Ukraine are proposed. Organization of a complex of activities on technology foresight is given. Разработки технологий предвидения и полученные заключения для различных систем принципиально разные. Каждая страна, и прежде всего Украина, должна независимо разрабатывать проблемы инновационного развития. В этой статье предлагаются математический аппарат, программное обеспечение сценарного анализа и разработки комплекса организационных мероприятий по технологическому предвидению в Украине. Розробки технологій передбачення та отримані висновки для різних систем принципово різні. Кожна країна, перш за все Україна, повинна незалежно розробляти проблеми іноваційного розвитку. В цій статті пропонується математичний апарат, програмне забезпечення сценарного аналізу та розробки комплексу організаційних заходів по технологічному передбаченню в Україні. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2019-08-07 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/175035 System research and information technologies; No. 1 (2003); 7-25 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 1 (2003); 7-25 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 1 (2003); 7-25 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/175035/174944 Copyright (c) 2021 System research and information technologies |
| spellingShingle | Zgurovsky, M. Z. Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні |
| title | Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні |
| title_alt | The scenario analysis platform as a methodological base of the national foresight program of Ukraine Платформа сценарного анализа как основа методологии национальной программы предвидения в Украине |
| title_full | Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні |
| title_fullStr | Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні |
| title_full_unstemmed | Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні |
| title_short | Платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в Україні |
| title_sort | платформа сценарного аналізу як основа методології національної програми передбачення в україні |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/175035 |
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