Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону
The article discusses topical issues of the influence of informatization on the development of the country’s regions in the conditions of the modern unstable world. The nature of the development of a region can be reflected and understood on the basis of qualitative and quantitative information abou...
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System research and information technologies| _version_ | 1867334419826606080 |
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| author | Gorelova, Galina Magomedova, Sabina Feilamazova, Svetlana |
| author_facet | Gorelova, Galina Magomedova, Sabina Feilamazova, Svetlana |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "Galina Gorelova",
"institution": "Institute of Management in Economic, Social and Ecological Systems of the Southern Federal University, Taganrog"
},
{
"author": "Sabina Magomedova",
"institution": "Dagestan State University, Makhachkala"
},
{
"author": "Svetlana Feilamazova",
"institution": "Dagestan State Technical University, Makhachkala"
}
] |
| author_sort | Gorelova, Galina |
| baseUrl_str | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2022-02-09T17:33:09Z |
| description | The article discusses topical issues of the influence of informatization on the development of the country’s regions in the conditions of the modern unstable world. The nature of the development of a region can be reflected and understood on the basis of qualitative and quantitative information about its socio-economic indicators, about their relationship and trends in their changes under the influence of internal and external factors. At the same time, information can most often be incomplete, difficult to access, untimely, contradictory, etc. Therefore, in this paper, it is proposed to use a cognitive approach and cognitive modeling of complex systems to overcome the problems of information deficiency by imitating cognitive modeling of the structure and behavior of a complex regional system. The simulation was carried out using the author’s CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Complex System) software system. The results of multi-stage cognitive modeling, consisting in the development of cognitive maps “Influence of ICT on the state of the region” and “Digitalization of the republic” (according to the socio-economic state of the Republic of Dagestan), analysis of structural properties and modeling scenarios for the development of situations on the model are presented. Scenarios make it possible to foresee the ways of possible development of the system under the influence of various factors, including the factor of informatization. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.3.06 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:34Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
G.V. Gorelova, S.R. Magomedova, S.A. Feilamazova, 2021
72 ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3
UDC 004.8:519.8
DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.3.06
COGNITIVE MODELING OF INFORMATIZATION INFLUENCE
ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE REGION
G.V. GORELOVA, S.R. MAGOMEDOVA, S.A. FEILAMAZOVA
Abstract. The article discusses topical issues of the influence of informatization on
the development of the country’s regions in the conditions of the modern unstable
world. The nature of the development of a region can be reflected and understood on
the basis of qualitative and quantitative information about its socio-economic indica-
tors, about their relationship and trends in their changes under the influence of inter-
nal and external factors. At the same time, information can most often be incom-
plete, difficult to access, untimely, contradictory, etc. Therefore, in this paper, it is
proposed to use a cognitive approach and cognitive modeling of complex systems to
overcome the problems of information deficiency by imitating cognitive modeling
of the structure and behavior of a complex regional system. The simulation was car-
ried out using the author’s CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Complex System) software
system. The results of multi-stage cognitive modeling, consisting in the development
of cognitive maps “Influence of ICT on the state of the region” and “Digitalization
of the republic” (according to the socio-economic state of the Republic of Dages-
tan), analysis of structural properties and modeling scenarios for the development of
situations on the model are presented. Scenarios make it possible to foresee the ways
of possible development of the system under the influence of various factors, includ-
ing the factor of informatization.
Keywords: complex systems, research, cognitive simulation, region, information
and communication technologies.
INTRODUCTION
Research question. In the cognitive studies of various complex systems (social,
economic, ecological, cyberphysical, etc.) conducted since the beginning of 2000,
the features and possibilities of a cognitive approach to their study were studied,
and a methodology for cognitive modeling of complex systems was developed.
The methodology combines both known and new models and methods into a sin-
gle system: 1) identification of the studied objects in the form of cognitive models
of different levels of complexity, 2) analysis of the properties of models, 3) fore-
seeing (forecasting) options for the development of situations in the system on its
model, 4) justification of decisions.
In the study, the results of which are presented in this article, the goal was
for the first time to determine, using the cognitive modeling tools of complex sys-
tems, the possibilities and nature of the influence of informatization on the socio-
economic development of the region. The general provisions and results of the
study of the socio-economic system of the region, taking into account the possi-
bilities of informatization, were concretized for the Republic of Dagestan in the
Russian Federation. When studying the state of the republic, the tasks were set to
predict its socio-economic development, subject to the development of informa-
tion and communication technologies (ICT) and the development of an ICT
management strategy.
Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 73
Basic theoretical provisions of cognitive modeling of complex systems.
Let us briefly present a number of information about the cognitive modeling of
complex systems, which have been repeatedly presented in the author’s works, for
example [10–14, 23]. This is necessary for further presentation and explanation of
the research results. Cognitive modeling of complex systems is a multi-stage cy-
clical research process. Its result is the presentation of the structure of a complex
system in the form of a cognitive model of varying complexity (mathematically,
this is a cognitive map — a sign oriented graph, vector sign digraph, functional
digraph, etc.), analysis of the model’s properties (structural properties, stability,
sensitivity, etc.), anticipation of possible situations of development of events in
the system in the form of various scenarios of development [1, 2, 7, 19].
The first stage is to develop a cognitive model based on the analysis of theo-
retical and practical knowledge in the studied subject area, based on the analysis
of statistical data, according to expert polls.
The basis of any cognitive model is G — a cognitive map (1), which is the
structure of a system consisting of a set of vertices kivV i ,...2,1,}{
and a set
of relationships between them kjieE ij ,...2,1,},{ :
EVG , . (1)
Model (1) fixes a set of cause-and-effect relations E between the main ver-
tices — objects (concepts, entities, factors) of the set V of the complex system
under study. In addition to the sets V and E, sets X of vertex parameters and
characteristics of connections between the vertices can be defined in the form of
weight coefficients ij or functions ),,( ijjiij exxfF ; in the latter case, the
cognitive model is defined as a vector parametric functional graph [19].
The second stage of cognitive modeling of complex systems is the stage of
studying the properties of the cognitive model (stability, connectivity, complexity,
etc.). The presence of this stage makes cognitive modeling of complex systems,
for example [10,11] different from traditional works on cognitive modeling of
socio-economic and political systems, such as, for example [1–9,18–22].
The third stage is the stage of developing possible scenarios for the devel-
opment of the system under the influence of changes in internal and external fac-
tors, control actions (situation management) [1, 2, 7, 19, 22, 25, 26]. To determine
the processes of the development of situations on the model, the impulse process
model is used [2, 7, 19]. Let us present it in the form [7, 10, 19]:
)()(),,()()1(
1
:
nQnPexxfnxnx i
k
Eeev
ijji
ijj
jiviv
, (2)
where )1(),( nxnx vivi are the values of the indicator vix at the vertex iv at the
steps of the simulation at the moment nt and following it 1 nt ; )(nPj is the
magnitude of the impulse at the vertex jv ; )(nQ j
is the vector of external distur-
bances introduced at the moment nt .
The final fourth stage of cognitive modeling of complex systems is the stage
of making decisions on the choice and subsequent implementation of the desired
scenario for the development of a complex system.
Cognitive simulation is supported by the CMCS software system [23].
G.V. Gorelova, S.R. Magomedova, S.A. Feilamazova
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 74
COGNITIVE MODELING OF INFORMATION INFLUENCE ON SOCIO-
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION.
As a result of the collection and processing of the existing practical material on
the influence of informatization on the development of regions, it was possible to
come to the conclusion about the lack of information about this influence; basi-
cally, such information is of a declarative nature. Therefore, an approach based on
imitative cognitive modeling was chosen to obtain the missing information and
clarify theoretical assumptions about the positive impact of ICT on the successful
development of regions. Based on the generalization of existing data on the im-
pact of ICT on socio-economic indicators, the main concepts (16 peaks) were se-
lected and a cognitive map was developed (Fig. 1).
The implementation of all stages of cognitive modeling based on the cogni-
tive map G (Fig. 1) and the analysis of the results obtained made it possible to use
the G model as the basis for this study.
The purpose of the study of data on Dagestan was to determine the impact of
digitalization on the development of Dagestan, to foresee the possible socio-
economic development of Dagestan, subject to the development of ICT, and the
subsequent development of an ICT management strategy that contributes to this.
Stage 1. Development of a cognitive model. At the initial stage, it was nec-
essary to check the causal relationships between socio-economic indicators and
the development of ICT in the Republic of Dagestan in accordance with model G.
All values of the indicators were taken from information on the regional econ-
omy, as well as statistical data from the state statistics bodies of the Russian Fed-
eration and the Republic of Dagestan. The selected socio-economic indicators of
Fig. 1. Cognitive map G “Impact of ICT on the state of the region”
Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 75
the region are interrelated, affect each other to one degree or another, but in this
study it was ICT indicators that played a key role in the study [15, 17, 22].
As such indicators, we have identified the following socio-economic indicators:
GRP of Dagestan, Standard of living, Labor productivity, Industrial and technological
backwardness, Corruption, Unemployment rate, Investment in ICT, Innovation,
Use of ICT in organizations, Number of employed specialists in ICT, Expenses
for ICT, Legal regulation of ICT, Electronic business security, Computer
literacy, Educational programs in ICT, Dagestan Development Corporation.
Table 1 shows a fragment of data on the vertices of the cognitive map with a
description of them and their role in the cognitive map, in table 2 — a fragment of
data on the relationship between the vertices.
According to Table 1, each vertex has its own purpose: target, basic, control,
disturbing. After identifying the peaks, it is necessary to establish causal
relationships between them (a fragment of the description and explanation is
presented in Table 2). The ratio between the vertices can be either positive, which
corresponds to the “+” sign, or negative, the “-” sign.
The G1 cognitive map corresponding to Tables 1 and 2 is shown in Fig. 2.
T a b l e 1 . Tops of the cognitive map G1 “Digitalization of the Republic”
Code
Vertex
name
Explanation of vertex selection
Vertex
assignment
V1
GRP of the
Republic
GRP is a generalized indicator of the development of the
region. The Republic of Dagestan ranks 32nd in the rating
of regions in terms of GRP in the Russian Federation
Target
V2
Investment
in ICT
Investment in ICT is an investment of money on the de-
velopment of ICT, it is an investment in fixed assets. A
number of investment projects are outlined in the republic
... The costs of ICT in the republic are low and very unstable
Manager
(entrance)
…
V4 Use of ICT
According to Rosstat, the use of information and communica-
tion technologies in the organizations of the republic is low,
as well as the average share of expenditures on ICT ...
Indicative
(output)
…
V6 Corruption
There is corruption in the government, the clan and ethnic
nature of power, hinders the real development of ICT
Basic
…
V12
Unem-
ployment
rate
The republic has favorable demographic trends, but an
unfavorable socio-economic situation, which contributes
to the growth of the unemployment rate
.Outrageous
…
V15
Develop-
ment
Corporation
By the Decree of the President of the Republic of July 22,
2013 No. 208, a Corporation for the Development of Da-
gestan was created in the republic, the main goal of which
is the implementation of innovative projects
Manager
V16
Living
standard
The poverty level in 2018 was 15,1% compared to the
previous year (almost 500 thousand people). ... In terms of
the “average size of pensions” indicator, the region is on
the 85th (last) place. The republic ranks 83rd in the coun-
try in terms of family welfare
Target
(output)
G.V. Gorelova, S.R. Magomedova, S.A. Feilamazova
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 76
T a b l e 2 . Causal relationships (relationships) between the vertices of the cogni-
tive map G “The impact of digitalization on the main indicators of the develop-
ment of the Republic”
Code Vertex-cause Vertex-effect Explanation of the relationship Sign
е1,3 V3. Investments
Investments in fixed assets can be classified
as significant indicators affecting GRP.
In the republic, investments mainly go to
residential buildings and premises, but
more investment in information and com-
munication technologies (ICT) is needed
+
е1,14
V14. Educational
programs on ICT
Growth of GRP affects the implementation
of educational programs on ICT
+
е1,16
V1. GRP of
the Republic
V16. Living
standards
An increase in GRP increases the living
standards and well-being of people.
+
…
е15,4 V4. Use of ICT
Dagestan Development Corporation provides
its platform for the promotion of ICT projects
+
е15,5
V5. Number of
employed ICT
specialists Attracts investors and ICT spe-
cialists to cooperation
+
е15,7
V15. Devel-
opment
Corporation of
the Republic
V7. ICT costs
ICT costs have a beneficial effect
on corporate innovation projects
+
…
Stage 2. Analysis of the properties of the cognitive map G1 “Digitalization
of the Republic of Dagestan”.
Fig. 2. Cognitive map G1 “Digitalization of the republic”
Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 77
1. Determination of the degree of the vertices of the graph G1. The analysis
of the degrees of the vertices of a cognitive map is carried out in order to deter-
mine the role of each vertex in the structure of the system according to its influ-
ence (or influence on it) on the entire system and to select the vertices that are
most significant in terms of the number of incoming and outgoing arcs. This is
necessary, among other things, to select the vertex to which it is most desirable to
make changes. Fig. 3 shows the results of the corresponding calculations.
As can be seen from Fig. 3, the top V4. Use of ICT can be considered the
most significant )9( p , significantly affecting the entire system (the number of
outgoing arcs, half-degree 4p ). Information about the degree of vertices can
also be used when selecting vertices to which changes will be made during mod-
eling scenarios.
2. Analysis of paths of the graph G1. Using the CMCS software system [22],
it is easy to analyze all possible paths from any vertices of the graph. Fig. 4 shows
one of the options for paths from the top of V15.Education System to the top of
V4.Use of ICT, i.e. the paths of V15 impact on V4 are analyzed. There are more
than 200 such paths. In Fig. 4, only one of the positive paths is marked (a “posi-
tive path” is a path in which there are no or an even number of negative arcs). It
can be interpreted as going from top to top. Fig. 5 shows the path
15 14 6 7 13 4V V V V V V
a simpler version of the transition from V15 to V4 (to facilitate the process of in-
terpretation in the article): the top of V15. The Education System has a “positive”
effect on the top of V14. ICT educational programs, this leads to a weakening of
the V6 top. Corruption, weakening Corruption leads to positive changes in the
sequential chain of V7.ICT Costs, V13.Computer literacy and V4.Use of ICT.
3. Analysis of the cycles of the cognitive map. In Fig. 6 shows the results of
determining the cycles of the cognitive map G1 and highlights one of its negative
and positive cycles.
Fig. 3. Determination of the degrees of vertices G1
G.V. Gorelova, S.R. Magomedova, S.A. Feilamazova
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 78
In total, there are 589 cycles in the G1 model, of which 159 are negative and
430 are positive. Positive feedback loops are loops with no or even number of
negative arcs; these are cycles of accelerators of processes in the system. Negative
feedback loops are loops with an odd number of negative arcs. These are
stabilizer cycles.
As well as in the analysis of the paths (cause-effect chains) of a cognitive
map, the analysis of the cycles of the model reveals the contradiction / non-
contradiction of its theoretical and practical information about the system under
study and accordingly corrects the model. In addition, cycle analysis allows you
to determine the structural stability of the model.
Fig. 4. One of the positive paths from V15 to V4
Fig. 5. One of the negative paths from V15 to V4
Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 79
4. Analysis of structural stability and stability of the model to disturbances.
The analysis of structural stability is carried out according to the results
of determining the cycles of the cognitive map [3, 10, 24, 25]. If the model has
an odd number of negative cycles, then it is considered structurally stable. In this
case, there is structural stability, since there are 159 negative cycles in the sys-
tem.
The analysis of stability to disturbances and by the initial value is carried out
according to the results of calculating the roots of the characteristic equation of
the matrix of relations RG cognitive map [7, 8, 10, 14]. For stability, it is neces-
sary that the largest modulo number of the characteristic equation of the matrix of
relations be less than one. Fig. 7 shows the result of calculating the roots RG1.
Since 192,1|| M | the system is not stable to disturbances.
Fig. 6. Highlighting the cycles of the cognitive map G1
Fig. 7. Calculation of the roots of the characteristic equation of the matrix RG1
G.V. Gorelova, S.R. Magomedova, S.A. Feilamazova
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 80
Stage 3. Scenario modeling. Modeling of scenarios of possible development
of situations is carried out by means of impulse modeling [7, 19, 21, 23], formula (2).
The CMCS software system [23] allows impulse modeling by introducing pertur-
bations into one, two or more vertices of the model; the impulse value can be
greater or less than 1 (at the beginning of the study it is recommended to set the
impulse 1q or 1q ) and be applied at the initial or any other simulation
cycle. In the article, we present the results of impulse modeling for three fairly
indicative scenarios.
Scenario 1. Let the use of ICT begin to increase in the republic, which is
imitated by introducing a perturbation into the vertex V4. Use of ICT (impulse
4 1q ), a vector of perturbations }0,,1,,0{ 1741 qqqQ .
The calculation results are shown in Table 3 and Fig. 9.
T a b l e 3 . Results of the computational experiment, Scenario 1
Step
Vertex
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
V1. GRP of the Republic 0 0 0 1 1 1 7 6 13 46 42
V2. Investment in ICT 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 7 6 13 46
V3. Innovation 0 0 0 1 4 4 12 25 37 90 165
V4. Use of ICT 0 1 1 1 3 5 7 20 32 51 136
V5. Number of ICT
Professionals Employed 0 0 1 1 5 9 12 39 61 103 265
V6. Corruption 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -7 -6 -13 -46 -42 -109
V8. ICT Legal Regulation 0 0 0 1 1 1 9 7 14 56 52
V9. Electronic Business
Security 0 0 0 -1 1 -3 -6 4 -23 -30 0
V12. Unemployment Rate 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -5 -18 -35 -43 -126
V13. Computer Literacy 0 0 0 1 0 1 6 2 11 34 17
V14. ICT Education Programs 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 8 13 19 59
V16. Standart of Living 0 0 0 1 3 5 14 19 44 100 144
V7. ICT Costs 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 3 21 -2 35
V10. Labor Productivity 0 0 1 1 1 9 7 14 56 52 124
V11. Industrial and
technological backwardness 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -13 -7 -17 -77 -50
V15. Education System 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 7 6 13 46
V17. Dagestan Development
Corporation 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 7 6 13 46
According to Table 3, graphs of impulse processes and a histogram of im-
pulse values at 7 simulation steps are constructed — Fig. 8. Impulse modeling can
be carried out until the tendency of possible development of situations in the sys-
tem is clearly manifested.
Scenario 2. Let the Dagestan development corporation begin to function in
the republic, which is modeled by the introduction of a control impulse 17 1q
into the top of V17; vector of perturbations. The graphs based on the calculation
results are shown in Fig. 9.
Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 81
Scenario 3. Let corruption increase in the republic, but the Dagestan de-
velopment corporation begins to function and Labor productivity grows; vector
of perturbations:
Fig. 8. Impulse Simulation. Scenario 1
Steps Steps
Im
p
u
ls
e
Im
p
u
ls
e
Fig. 9. Impulse Simulation. Scenario 2
Steps Steps
Im
p
u
ls
e
Im
p
u
ls
e
G.V. Gorelova, S.R. Magomedova, S.A. Feilamazova
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 82
The graphs based on the calculation results are shown in Table 4 and in Fig. 10.
T a b l e 4 . Results of the computational experiment, Scenario 3
Step
Vertex
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
V1. GRP of the Republic 0 0 -1 0 3 2 3 11 19 45 68
V2. Investment in ICT 0 0 0 -1 0 3 2 3 11 19 45
V3. Innovation 0 0 0 2 9 9 10 33 66 106 200
V4. Use of ICT 0 0 1 2 1 4 12 24 38 62 156
V5. Number of ICT Profes-
sionals Employed 0 0 1 3 9 17 17 39 95 147 287
V6. Corruption 0 1 0 -3 -2 -3 -11 -19 -45 -68 -114
V8. ICT Legal Regulation 0 0 1 1 3 5 11 13 14 61 107
V9. Electronic Business
Security 0 0 1 1 0 -4 -11 0 -9 -58 -40
V12. Unemployment Rate 0 0 1 -3 -5 -7 -9 -23 -52 -66 -129
V13. Computer Literacy 0 0 0 2 1 -3 3 13 11 26 46
V14. ICT Education Programs 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 5 5 14 30 64
V16. Standart of Living 0 0 -1 -2 5 10 15 25 56 127 198
V7. ICT Costs 0 0 2 2 -2 0 8 6 12 16 33
V10. Labor Productivity 0 1 1 3 5 11 13 14 61 107 130
V11. Industrial and techno-
logical backwardness 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -11 -21 -20 -73 -123
V15. Education System 0 0 0 -1 0 3 2 3 11 19 45
V17. Dagestan Development
Corporation 0 1 1 0 1 4 3 4 12 20 46
Fig. 10. Impulse Simulation, Scenario 3
Corporation
product
Steps Steps
Im
p
u
ls
e
Im
p
u
ls
e
Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 83
The considered scenarios are not the only ones possible in this system; in the
course of the study, various options were considered when disturbing one, two,
three or more vertices.
As can be seen from the results of impulse modeling (Tables 3 and 4, as well
as Fig. 8–10), all scenarios indicate the same type of “positive” development of
events in the “Digitalization of the Republic” system, displayed by the cognitive
map G1. When making control actions to the top V4.Use of ICT, then to the top
V7.Dagestan development corporation, then immediately to three vertices V7.
Dagestan development corporation, V10.Labor productivity, V4.Corruption, there
are tendencies of increase in the analyzed socio-economic indicators: GRP of Da-
gestan, Living standards, Unemployment rate, Investment in ICT, Innovation,
ICT use in organizations, Number of employed specialists in ICT, ICT spending ,
ICT Legal Regulation, Electronic Business Security, Computer Literacy and ICT
Education Programs while Reducing Corruption and Industrial and Technological
Backwardness.
The above examples confirm the assumption that the development of ICT in
the Republic of Dagestan and the adoption of an organizational decision to create
the Dagestan Development Corporation for this purpose should bring positive
results in improving the living standards of the population, improving the educa-
tion system.
CONCLUSION
The methodology of cognitive modeling of complex systems, including the SMC
toolkit, is a convenient means of not only understanding, explaining, and antici-
pating the possible development of a complex system (socio-economic, ecologi-
cal, political, socio-technical, etc.), but also formalizing the corresponding cogni-
tive processes. The latter makes it possible to diversify a complex system much
deeper and more fully than can be done by traditional methods and in conditions
of incomplete information. This is illustrated
The article discusses topical issues of the influence of informatization on the
development of regions on models such as cognitive maps. Further studies of the
influence of ICT on the socio-economic indicators of the republic are aimed at the
development of mathematically more complex cognitive models, including func-
tional dependencies between some peaks of cognitive maps.
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Received 09.08.2021
Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 85
INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE
Galina V. Gorelova, Institute of Management in Economic, Social and Ecological Sys-
tems of the Southern Federal University, Russia, e-mail: gorelova-37@mail.ru
Sabina R. Magomedova, ORCID: 0000-0002-0684-623X, Dagestan State University,
Russia, e-mail: msabina_1990@mail.ru
Svetlana A. Feilamazova, ORCID: 0000-0002-2290-2916, Dagestan State Technical
University, Russia, e-mail: konspirator13@mail.ru
КОГНИТИВНОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ ИНФОРМАТИЗАЦИИ НА
СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ РЕГИОНА / Г.В. Горело-
ва, С.Р. Магомедова, С.А. Фейламазова
Аннотация. Рассмотрены актуальные вопросы влияния информатизации на
развитие регионов страны в условиях современного нестабильного мира. Ха-
рактер развития региона может отражаться и пониматься на основании качест-
венной и количественной информации о его социально-экономических показа-
телях, об их взаимосвязи и тенденций их изменений под влиянием внутренних
и внешних факторов. При этом информация чаще всего может быть неполной,
трудно доступной, несвоевременной, противоречивой и т.п. Поэтому в работе
предложено использовать когнитивный подход и когнитивное моделирование
сложных систем для преодоления проблем информационной недостаточности
путем имитационного когнитивного моделирования структуры и поведения
сложной региональной системы. Имитационное моделирования проводилось с
помощью авторской программной системы CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Com-
plex System). Приведены результаты многоэтапного когнитивного моделиро-
вания, состоящего в разработке когнитивных карт «Влияние ИКТ на состояние
региона» и «Цифровизация республики» (по данным социально-
экономического состояния республики Дагестан), анализа структурных
свойств и моделирования сценариев развития ситуаций на модели. Сценарии
позволяют предвидеть пути возможного развития системы под воздействием
разных факторов, в том числе — фактора информатизации.
Ключевые слова: сложные системы, исследование, когнитивное имитацион-
ное моделирование, регион, информационно-коммуникационные технологии.
КОГНІТИВНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВПЛИВУ ІНФОРМАТИЗАЦІЇ НА
СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНІ ПОКАЗНИКИ РЕГІОНУ / Г.В. Горєлова, С.Р. Ма-
гомедова, С.А. Фейламазова
Анотація. Розглянуто актуальні питання впливу інформатизації на розвиток
регіонів країни в умовах сучасного нестабільного світу. Характер розвитку
регіону може відображатися і розумітися на підставі якісної і кількісної
інформації про його соціально-економічні показники, їх взаємозв’язки і
тенденції їх змін під впливом внутрішніх і зовнішніх факторів. При цьому
інформація найчастіше може бути неповною, важкодоступною, несвоєчасною,
суперечливою і т. ін. Тому у праці запропоновано використовувати
когнітивний підхід і когнітивне моделювання складних систем для вирішення
проблем інформаційної недостатності шляхом імітаційного когнітивного мо-
делювання структури і поведінки складної регіональної системи. Імітаційне
моделювання виконувалось за допомогою авторської програмної системи
CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Complex System). Наведено результати багатоетап-
ного когнітивного моделювання, що складається з розроблення когнітивних
карт «Вплив ІКТ на стан регіону» і «Цифровізація республіки» (за даними
соціально-економічного стану республіки Дагестан), аналізу структурних вла-
стивостей і моделювання сценаріїв розвитку ситуацій на моделі. Сценарії да-
ють змогу передбачити перспективу розвитку системи під впливом різних
факторів, в тому числі — фактора інформатизації.
Ключові слова: складні системи, дослідження, когнітивне імітаційне моделю-
вання, регіон, інформаційно-комунікаційні технології.
|
| id | journaliasakpiua-article-244545 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:34Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/ca/c3873dceb9ff234abfea2fd1f351ceca.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-2445452022-02-09T17:33:09Z Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region Когнитивное моделирование влияния информатизации на социально-экономические показатели региона Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону Gorelova, Galina Magomedova, Sabina Feilamazova, Svetlana складні системи дослідження когнітивне імітаційне моделювання регіон інформаційно-комунікаційні технології complex systems research cognitive simulation region information and communication technologies сложные системы исследование когнитивное имитационное моделирование регион информационно-коммуникационные технологии The article discusses topical issues of the influence of informatization on the development of the country’s regions in the conditions of the modern unstable world. The nature of the development of a region can be reflected and understood on the basis of qualitative and quantitative information about its socio-economic indicators, about their relationship and trends in their changes under the influence of internal and external factors. At the same time, information can most often be incomplete, difficult to access, untimely, contradictory, etc. Therefore, in this paper, it is proposed to use a cognitive approach and cognitive modeling of complex systems to overcome the problems of information deficiency by imitating cognitive modeling of the structure and behavior of a complex regional system. The simulation was carried out using the author’s CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Complex System) software system. The results of multi-stage cognitive modeling, consisting in the development of cognitive maps “Influence of ICT on the state of the region” and “Digitalization of the republic” (according to the socio-economic state of the Republic of Dagestan), analysis of structural properties and modeling scenarios for the development of situations on the model are presented. Scenarios make it possible to foresee the ways of possible development of the system under the influence of various factors, including the factor of informatization. Рассмотрены актуальные вопросы влияния информатизации на развитие регионов страны в условиях современного нестабильного мира. Характер развития региона может отражаться и пониматься на основании качественной и количественной информации о его социально-экономических показателях, об их взаимосвязи и тенденций их изменений под влиянием внутренних и внешних факторов. При этом информация чаще всего может быть неполной, трудно доступной, несвоевременной, противоречивой и т.п. Поэтому в работе предложено использовать когнитивный подход и когнитивное моделирование сложных систем для преодоления проблем информационной недостаточности путем имитационного когнитивного моделирования структуры и поведения сложной региональной системы. Имитационное моделирования проводилось с помощью авторской программной системы CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Complex System). Приведены результаты многоэтапного когнитивного моделирования, состоящего в разработке когнитивных карт "Влияние ИКТ на состояние региона" и "Цифровизация республики" (по данным социально-экономического состояния республики Дагестан), анализа структурных свойств и моделирования сценариев развития ситуаций на модели. Сценарии позволяют предвидеть пути возможного развития системы под воздействием разных факторов, в том числе — фактора информатизации. Розглянуто актуальні питання впливу інформатизації на розвиток регіонів країни в умовах сучасного нестабільного світу. Характер розвитку регіону може відображатися і розумітися на підставі якісної і кількісної інформації про його соціально-економічні показники, їх взаємозв’язки і тенденції їх змін під впливом внутрішніх і зовнішніх факторів. При цьому інформація найчастіше може бути неповною, важкодоступною, несвоєчасною, суперечливою і т. ін. Тому у праці запропоновано використовувати когнітивний підхід і когнітивне моделювання складних систем для вирішення проблем інформаційної недостатності шляхом імітаційного когнітивного моделювання структури і поведінки складної регіональної системи. Імітаційне моделювання виконувалось за допомогою авторської програмної системи CMCS (Cognitive Modeling Complex System). Наведено результати багатоетапного когнітивного моделювання, що складається з розроблення когнітивних карт "Вплив ІКТ на стан регіону" і "Цифровізація республіки" (за даними соціально-економічного стану республіки Дагестан), аналізу структурних властивостей і моделювання сценаріїв розвитку ситуацій на моделі. Сценарії дають змогу передбачити перспективу розвитку системи під впливом різних факторів, в тому числі — фактора інформатизації. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2021-09-30 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/244545 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.3.06 System research and information technologies; No. 3 (2021); 72-85 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 3 (2021); 72-85 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 3 (2021); 72-85 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/244545/242387 |
| spellingShingle | складні системи дослідження когнітивне імітаційне моделювання регіон інформаційно-комунікаційні технології Gorelova, Galina Magomedova, Sabina Feilamazova, Svetlana Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону |
| title | Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону |
| title_alt | Cognitive modeling of informatization influence on socio-economic indicators of the region Когнитивное моделирование влияния информатизации на социально-экономические показатели региона |
| title_full | Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону |
| title_fullStr | Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону |
| title_full_unstemmed | Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону |
| title_short | Когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону |
| title_sort | когнітивне моделювання впливу інформатизації на соціально-економічні показники регіону |
| topic | складні системи дослідження когнітивне імітаційне моделювання регіон інформаційно-комунікаційні технології |
| topic_facet | складні системи дослідження когнітивне імітаційне моделювання регіон інформаційно-комунікаційні технології complex systems research cognitive simulation region information and communication technologies сложные системы исследование когнитивное имитационное моделирование регион информационно-коммуникационные технологии |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/244545 |
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