Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків

The comparative analysis of the neoclassical Solow’s model and the modified Solow’s model in the implementation of technological progress has shown undeniable advantages of the modified Solow’s model. A modified version of the Solow’s economic growth model, based on an n-step production function in...

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Date:2021
Main Author: Lopatin, Alexey
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Language:English
Published: The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2021
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System research and information technologies
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author Lopatin, Alexey
author_facet Lopatin, Alexey
author_sort Lopatin, Alexey
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datestamp_date 2022-02-09T17:33:09Z
description The comparative analysis of the neoclassical Solow’s model and the modified Solow’s model in the implementation of technological progress has shown undeniable advantages of the modified Solow’s model. A modified version of the Solow’s economic growth model, based on an n-step production function in the form of n S-shaped functions for the implementation of technological progress, ensures the growth of the economy on a sufficiently large time interval comparable to the duration of the life cycle of the economy under study. In this interval, referred to as the “technology gap”, intensive output y (t) can be carried out according to the following options: monotonic decrease (stable 1-cycle) of the considered model; oscillations (stable n-cycles, n=2,4,16,…), “the economy marks time”; chaotic fluctuations. This result for the models of economic growth has not been described in the literature.
doi_str_mv 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.3.08
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fulltext  A.K. Lopatin, 2021 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 99 UDC 519.86 DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.3.08 TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS IMPLEMENTATION BASED ON A MODIFIED VERSION OF R.M. SOLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL: WITH PRODUCTION S-CURVE CONSISTING OF n-STEPS A.K. LOPATIN Abstract. The comparative analysis of the neoclassical Solow’s model and the modified Solow’s model in the implementation of technological progress has shown undeniable advantages of the modified Solow’s model. A modified version of the Solow’s economic growth model, based on an n-step production function in the form of n S-shaped functions for the implementation of technological progress, ensures the growth of the economy on a sufficiently large time interval comparable to the duration of the life cycle of the economy under study. In this interval, referred to as the “technology gap”, intensive output y (t) can be carried out according to the following options: monotonic decrease (stable 1-cycle) of the considered model; oscillations (stable n -cycles, ..=,2,4,16,.n ), “the economy marks time”; chaotic fluctuations. This result for the models of economic growth has not been described in the literature. Keywords: modified Solow’s model, technology gap, periodic cycles and chaos. INTRODUCTION In this work, we have obtained a further development of a modified version of the Solow economic growth model, based on an n-step production function in the form of n S -shaped functions for the implementation of technical progress, proposed in [1]. The substantiation of the dependence of macroeconomic dynamics on technological investment priorities in the form of S -shaped production functions has been considered in numerous works (see the review article [2] and the monograph [3]. In this work, we follow [4] and [5] The development process of each technological paradigm, in general, is described by a logistic curve, which expresses the most general laws of the dynamics of progressive cyclic processes. At the beginning of the life cycle of each technological paradigm, significant costs for its development give insignificant results — the first flat section of the logistic curve corresponds to this period. Then, with the development and practical mastering of the corresponding technical and technological principles, small costs begin to bring a significant ef- fect and the curve rises steeply. Further, as the technologies of this paradigm are approaching their technological limits, this technological paradigm again enters a gentle section of the curve, and no, even large-scale investments in its development are no longer able to bring a significant effect. At the disposal of the investor at any given time, there is a limited number of technologies that could potentially be supported by his investment resources. The meaning of overcoming the period of technological gap, which is repeated from time to time in each A.K. Lopatin ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 100 branch of the economy, is to quickly and as little loss as possible change from one logistic curve to another, corresponding to a more progressive technological order. In this case, the correct choice of a substitute technology entirely depends on the correctness of estimates of the upper technological limits of several competing technologies designed to solve the same technical problem. There is a need for a transition to a new technological paradigm. This is one of the most difficult problems of technical and economic forecasting. A modified version of the Solow’s economic growth model, based on an n-step production function in the form of n S -shaped functions for the implementation of technological progress, proposed in [1], gives an adequate mathematical apparatus for solving this problem. This work develops the results of work [1] in the following directions:  comparative analysis of neoclassical Solow’s model and the modified Solow’s model in the implementation of techno- logical progress;  development of a constructive algorithm based on the apparatus of nonlinear discrete dynamical systems;  development a modified model, generating periodic and chaotic cycles. Solow’s model The founder of modern growth theory was R.M. Solow ( [6], Nobel Prize Winner in Economics 1987). Until now, due to its combination of simplicity and richness, the Solow’s model is considered as the basic model of economic growth in most economics textbooks. For modern post-Solow growth theories see the overview article [7]. Solow’s model description Here we follow [8] Assumptions:  closed economy, producing one good using both labor and capital;  technological progress is given and the saving rate is exogenously determined;  no government and fixed number of firms in the economy, each with the same production technology;  output price is constant and factor prices (including wages) adjust to ensure full utilization of all available inputs. Neoclassical production function: Four variables considered:  flow of output, Y ;  stock of capital, K ;  number of workers, L ;  effective labor, LA . Aggregate production function given by, ),(= ALKFY . (1) A and L enter multiplicatively, where AL is effective labor, and technological progress enters as labor augmenting or Harrod neutral. Technology progress implementation based on a modified version of R.M. Solow economic … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 101 Assumed characteristics of the model: 0> )( 0,>0,>0,> 2 2 2 2 AL F K F AL F K F         . Constant returns to scale (CRS) in capital and effective labor: ),(=),( ALKFALKF  . (2) Intensive-form production function: output per unit of effective labor, y , and capital per unit of effective labor, k , are related by setting AL 1 = in (2), ),( 1 =1, ALKF ALAL K F       . Let AL Y y AL K k =,= and ,1)(=)( kFkf . Equation (1) is then written as intensive-form production function 0=(0)),(= fkfy . A MODIFIED VERSION OF SOLOW’S ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL WITH n-STAGE S-LIKE PRODUCTION FUNCTION The idea of using S -curves in the Solow’s equation was first (as it seems to us) expressed in [9] using the example of Richards S -curves. The main result of this work as applied to the continuous Solow equation is reduced to the classification of trajectories, similarly to what has been done in the Solow’s equation in [1]. A modified Solow’s model description Let there be some S -curve depending on the 2p parameters, and the m parameter is responsible for the shift along the abscissa axis, the u parameter — along the ordinate axis: ),,,...,( 1 umvvS ppf . Ecxample. Verholst’s S -curve , ))((exp1 =)( u mkaB A kS t tpf   (3) here t t t L K k = , 0=4,=1,=5,,0=5,= umaBA . The new production function, which will be called the n-stage production function ( 1n ), is given by formula:       L K LSY pf= . (4) Let L Y y L K k =,= and )(=)( kSkf pf . Equation (4) is then written as intensive-form production function )(= kfy . A.K. Lopatin ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 102 It is assumed that the growth of working in economy is described by formula: tt LntL )1(=)(1  . Economic growth determined by the behavior of the capital stock K : t t t pftt Kd L K SLsK )(1*=1        . (5) Dividing both sides of equation (5) by tL , after simple transformations we obtain the second s to eliminate ttt k n d ksf n s k     1 1 )( 1 =1 . (6) It is non-linear, first-order difference equation. Here 2,0=d -depreciation rate, 3,0=s -a fixed fraction of output, 1<<0 s , Nt 0,1,...,= . The equation (6) will be called the modified Solow’s model with 1-stage production function. The model with N stages production function was considered in [1] and with 2 stages production function is considered in section 4 of this article. A modified Solow’s model characteristics  All clauses of Assumption in subsection 2.1 are accepted.  The production function can be both increasing and decreasing Growing production function (see Fig. 1 and 2).  From three cases of equilibrium for phase trajectory we choose Case 1: Developed world (good equilibrium). The phase curve is located above the bisector and has one intersection point with it (a stable equilibrium position) [1].  Production function (3) has more parameters than neoclassical production function.  When changing the parameters m and u, the production function can be shifted to any point in the first quarter. The condition 0)0( f is not met.  The need to use the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems to study the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of solutions to the modified Solow model. For the neoclassical model, this device has not been used in full before. y f(k) )(kf  )(kf  k Fig. 1. Increasing production function f (k) y f(k) )(kf  )(kf  k Fig. 2. Decreasing production function f (k) Technology progress implementation based on a modified version of R.M. Solow economic … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 103  The S-shaped production function describes the life cycle of each technology: origin, leapfrogging, and gradual achievement of the stage of full maturity of a technological process or product. For the S -curve to be of practical value, it must predict impending technological change:      .<,0<)(0,>)( ,,0>)(0,>)( pointinflectionxifkfkf pointinflectionxifkfkf      .<,0<)(0,>)( ,,0>)(0,>)( pointinflectionxifkfkf pointinflectionxifkfkf A MODIFIED MODEL, GENERATING PERIODIC AND CHAOTIC CYCLES A modified model construction algorithm Consider two production functions shown in Fig. 3. Here 37<0, ))((exp1 =)(1 t t tpf ku mkaB A kS   ; (7) 47}<37, ))((exp1 =)( 5 555 5 2 t t tpf ku mkaB A kS   (8) in equations (7), (8) the parameters have the following values. Summary of parameters used A B a m u A5 B5 a5 m5 u5 117 6,9 0,1 0 -14,1 72 10 -0,5 52 10 The technique for finding the variables Nkt 2,...1,, will be discussed below. 37<,0 11 =)( 11 ttpftph kk n dn S n s kS      . (9) Here 2,0=d -depreciation rate, 3,0=s -investment share, 004,0=n is a coefficient of the growth of person employed in economy: 33=,)1(=)(,)1(=)( 001 LnLtLLntL N Nttt   . 1 S1pf S2pf yt kt Fig. 3. Intensive production functions pfS1 and pfS2 A.K. Lopatin ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 104 It is easy to see that the phase curve )(1 tph kS (4) is a right-hand side of the modified Solow’s equation )(= 11 tpht kSk  . In a similar way, we write down the equation for phase curve )(2 tph kS 47<37 11 =)( 22 ttpftph kk n dn S n s kS      (10) and corresponding modified Solow’s equation )(= 21 tpht kSk  and )(2 tss kS which are used to find steady states: )(=)(,)(=)( 2211 tfptsstfptss ksSkSksSkS . To find the steady state points of the variable tk of the modified Solow equation (9) , we construct a diagram. The Fig. 4 shows that steady state point of tky = lies outside where equation (9) is considered and should not be taken into account. To control the correctness of the construction, you need to make sure that the steady state points generated by the phase curve phS1 and ssS1 coincide. Fig. 5 shows that steady state point of tky = lies within where equation (10) is considered and should be taken into account. To control the correctness of the construction, you need to make sure that the steady state points generated by the phase curves phS2 and ssS2 coincide. Dynamics of the modified Solow equation Let us introduce the 2-stage production function )(2 tkS given by equation      .4737if,)( ,37<0if,)( =)(2 2 1 ttpf ttpf t kkS kkS kS yt, kt+1 S1pf S1ph S1ss kt Fig. 4. Finding steady state points. Dotted line — bisector tky = ; dotted line — linear function tkdny )(=  Fig. 5. Shows phase curves phS2 and ssS2 coincide yt, kt+1 S2pf S2ph S2ss kt y=(n+d)kt k y=kt Technology progress implementation based on a modified version of R.M. Solow economic … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 105 Output per worker )( tky can be found from the relationship )(2=)( tt kSky . Let us introduce the 2-stage phase curve )2( tkS given by equation      .4737if,)( ,37<0if,)( =)(2 2 1 ttph ttph t kkS kkS kG For the function )(2 tkG , we can write down the modified Solow equation )(2=)( 11  tt kGky (11) This is a nonlinear discrete first order equation with piecewise continuous coefficients. The theory of first-order nonlinear discrete dynamical systems is well developed [10]. Numerical simulation is crucial in the investigation of nonlinear systems.Let us solve equation (11) and carry out a qualitative study of the equation. For this we use the E&F Chaos software package [11] (see Figs 6–12). In fig. 8. As parameter 5a increases from -1 to 0, one observes: each stable cycle goes through an infinite sequence of period-doublings. Fig. 6. The stable fixed point (stable 1-cycle) of equation of (11) 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 Fig. 7. The time series plots of stable 1-cycle of equation (11) 44 33 22 11 0 6 12 24 36 k1 t Fig. 8. Period doubling of flip bifurcation, with creation of a 2-cycle of (11) 59 53 47 41 35 -2 -0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 k1 C B A A.K. Lopatin ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 106 For example, the stable fixed point gives rise to a stable 2-cycle just as the fixed point becomes unstable. This stable 2-cycle gives rise to a stable 4-cycle just as the 2-cycle becomes unstable. This stable 4-cycle gives rise to a stable 8-cycle just as the 4-cycle becomes unstable. In general, any stable n -cycle gives rise to a family cycle16cycle8cycle4cycle2  nnnn . The amplitude of kn -cycle goes to zero when k goes infinity. Systems with two properties: bifurcation and period doubling, sensitive dependence to initial conditions or the largest Lyapunov exponent is positive are considered to be chaotic in a certain sense. These are termed as the routes to chaos. In Fig. 9. The largest Lyapunov exponent is the average growth rate of an infinitesimal state perturbation along a typical trajectory (orbit). For periodic regimes the largest Lyapunov exponent is negative. This means that they are asymptotically stable by Lyapunov with respect to small changes in the initial conditions. For chaotic regimes the largest Lyapunov exponent is positive. This means that they are asymptotically unstable by Lyapunov with respect to small changes in the initial conditions (sensitive dependence to initial conditions). Fig. 9. The largest Lyapunov exponent 5a increases from -1 to 0 for equation (11) 0,3 -0,4 -1,1 -1,8 -2,5 -1 -0,8 -0,6 -0,6 -0,2 0 Fig. 10. Time series of stable 2-cycle at 5,0=5 a of (11) 48 36 24 12 0 6 12 18 24 k1 t Fig. 11. Time series of stable 4-cycle at 6,0=5 a of (11) 52 39 26 13 0 k1 t 10 20 30 40 Technology progress implementation based on a modified version of R.M. Solow economic … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 107 The diagram shows two trajectories under different initial conditions: blue 1,1=0k and red 11,1=0k despite the small difference in the values of the initial conditions, the trajectories first coincide and then diverge — the effect of the sensitivity of the solutions to the initial conditions. An example of a model based on real statistical data The intervals at which the drop in production occurs, for example, BC, DE, FG (Fig. 13), will be called the “technological gap” intervals. The very effect of this behavior is a “technological gap”. This process is the result of a combination of economic, technological, socio-cultural, political and other events. The task of a healthy economy is to overcome this gap as quickly as possible and move to production growth. Fig. 12. Chaos:sensitive dependence on initial conditions at 85,0=5 a of (11) k1 t 52 39 26 13 0 10 20 30 40 Fig. 13. GDP per person employed (current US $) of Germany 1972–2018 by year numbers y1 t Fig. 14: Approximation of real data using the model in fig. 13 A.K. Lopatin ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 3 108 The figures above explain the mechanism of behavior during the transition from a growing S-shaped production function to a decreasing S -shaped production function at a certain interval of functioning of the economic system under study. CONCLUSIONS Comparative analysis of the neoclassical Solow model and the modified Solow model in the implementation of technological progress has shown undeniable advantages of the modified Solow model. The exogenously introduced S-shaped production function describes the life cycle of technology at every: origin, leapfrogging, and gradual achievement of the stage of full maturity of a technological process or product at every stage. A modified version of the Solow economic growth model, based on an n-step production function in the form of n S-shaped functions for the implementation of technological progress, ensures the growth of the economy by a sufficiently large time interval comparable to the duration of the life cycle of the economy under study. The use of the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems to study solutions of the modified Solow model significantly improves their quantitative and qualitative characteristics. For the neoclassical model, this technique has not been used in full before. A modified model, generating periodic and chaotic cycles for 2 S-shaped production functions, is created. It explains the mechanism of behavior during the transition from a growing S-shaped production function to a decreasing S-shaped production function at a certain interval of functioning of the economic system under study. In this interval, referred to as the “technology gap”, intensive output )(ty can be carried out according to the following options (see Fig. 13, 14):  Monotonic decrease (steady-state (stable 1-cycle) of the considered model.  Oscillations (stable n -cycles, ..1,2,4,16,.=n ), “the economy marks time”.  Chaotic fluctuations. This result for the models of economic growth is fundamental and has not been described in the literature. REFERENCES 1. Alexey Lopatin, “A Modified Version of Solow’s Economic Growth Model with Successive Using Composite S-Curves for Technological Progress Implementation”, 2020 IEEE 2nd International Conference on System Analysis Intelligent Computing (SAIC), 5-9 Oct. 2020, Kyiv, Ukraine, pp. 60–63. doi: 10.1109/SAIC51296.2020.9239116 2. Dmitry Kucharavy and Roland De Guio, “Application of S-shaped curves”, TRIZ Future Conference 2007, Procedia Engineering, 9 , 2011, 559572. 3. V.K. Semenychev, A.A. Korobetskaya, and V.N. Kozhukhova, Proposals of econometric tools for modeling and forecasting evolutionary processes: a monograph [in Russian]. Samara: SAGMU, 2015, 384 p. 4. Yu.N. Startsev, S-shaped development models and technological gaps [in Russian]. Available: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/s-obraznye-modeli-razvitiya-i- tehnologicheskie-razryvy 5. R.M. Nizhegorodtsev, “Logistic modeling of economic dynamics [in rus.], part 1”, Problemy upravleniya, no. 1, pp. 46–53, 2004. 6. R.M. Solow, “A contribution to the theory of economic growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70 (1), pp. 65–94, 1956. 7. O.A. Zamulin and K.I. Sonin, “Economic Growth: Nobel Prize 2018 and Lessons for Russia”, Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1, pp. 11–36, 2019. Technology progress implementation based on a modified version of R.M. Solow economic … Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 3 109 8. Pierre-Richard Agénor and Peter J. Montiel, Development Macroeconomics. Fourth Edition Princeton University Press, 2015, 792 p. 9. Leobardo Plata Perez and Eduardo Caldern, “A modified version of Solow- Ramsey model using Richard’s growth function”, Economia internacional y desarrollo, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 65–70, 2009. 10. A. Medio and M. Lines, Nonlinear dynamics, A primer. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001. 11. Cees Diks, Cars Hommes, Valentyn Panchenko, and Roy van der Weide, “E&F Chaos: A User Friendly Software Package for Nonlinear Economic Dynamics”, Comput Econ., 32, pp. 221–244, 2008. doi: 10.1007/s10614-008-9130-x. Received 30.06.2021 INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE Alexey K. Lopatin, ORCID: 0000-0002-0832-3600, Educational and Scientific Complex “Institute for Applied System Analysis” of the National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: lopatinalexey142@gmail.com РЕАЛІЗАЦІЯ ТЕХНОЛОГІЧНОГО ПРОГРЕСУ НА ОСНОВІ МОДИФІКО- ВАНОЇ ВЕРСІЇ МОДЕЛІ ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО ЗРОСТАННЯ Р.М. СОЛОУ: S-ПОДІБНА КРИВА ВИРОБНИЦТВА, ЩO СКЛАДАЄТЬСЯ З n-КРОКІВ / О.К. Лопатін Анотація. Порівняльний аналіз неокласичної моделі Р. Солоу і її модифікова- ної версії в реалізації технологічного прогресу показав незаперечні переваги модифікованої моделі Солоу. Модифікована версія моделі економічного зрос- тання Р. Солоу, що заснована на n-ступінчастій виробничій функції у вигляді n S-подібних функцій для реалізації технічного прогресу, забезпечує зростання економіки на достатньо великому часовому інтервалі, порівнянному з тривалі- стью життєвого циклу досліджуваної економіки. В інтервалі, званому «техно- логічним розривом», інтенсивний випуск )(ty може здійснюватися у відповід- ності з наступними варіантами: монотонне зниження продуктивності (стабільний 1-цикл) розглянутої моделі; коливання (стійкі n -цикли , n = 2,4,16, ...), «економіка тупцює на місці»; хаотичні коливання. Перераховані результа- ти для моделей економічного зростання в літературі не описані. Ключові слова: модифікована модель Р. Солоу, технологічний розрив, періодичні цикли і хаос. РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПРОГРЕССА НА ОСНОВЕ МОДИФИЦИРОВАННОЙ ВЕРСИИ МОДЕЛИ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА Р.М. СОЛОУ: S-ОБРАЗНАЯ КРИВАЯ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА, СОСТОЯЩАЯ ИЗ n-ШАГОВ / А.К. Лопатин Аннотация. Сравнительный анализ неоклассической модели Р. Солоу и ее модифицированной версии в реализации технологического прогресса показал неоспоримые преимущества модифицированной модели Солоу. Модифи- цированная версия модели экономического роста Р. Солоу, основанная на n-ступенчатой производственной функции в виде n S-образных функций для реализации технического прогресса, обеспечивает рост экономики на достаточ- но большом временном интервале, сопоставимом с продолжительность жиз- ненного цикла исследуемой экономики. В интервале, называемом «технологи- ческим разрывом», интенсивный выпуск )(ty может осуществляться в соответствии со следующими вариантами: монотонное снижение производи- тельности (стабильный 1-цикл) рассматриваемой модели; колебания (устойчи- вые n-циклы, n = 2,4,16,…), «экономика топчется на месте»; хаотические коле- бания. Перечисленные результаты для моделей экономического роста в литературе не описаны. Ключевые слова: модифицированная модель Р. Солоу, технологический раз- рыв, периодические циклы и хаос.
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spelling journaliasakpiua-article-2446032022-02-09T17:33:09Z Technology progress implementation based on a modified version of R.M. Solow economic growth model: with production s-curve consisting of n-steps Реализация технологического прогресса на основе модифицированной версии модели экономического роста Р.М. Солоу: s-образная кривая производства, состоящая из n-шагов Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків Lopatin, Alexey модифікована модель Р. Солоу технологічний розрив періодичні цикли і хаос модифицированная модель Р. Солоу технологический разрыв периодические циклы и хаос modified Solow’s model technology gap periodic cycles and chaos The comparative analysis of the neoclassical Solow’s model and the modified Solow’s model in the implementation of technological progress has shown undeniable advantages of the modified Solow’s model. A modified version of the Solow’s economic growth model, based on an n-step production function in the form of n S-shaped functions for the implementation of technological progress, ensures the growth of the economy on a sufficiently large time interval comparable to the duration of the life cycle of the economy under study. In this interval, referred to as the “technology gap”, intensive output y (t) can be carried out according to the following options: monotonic decrease (stable 1-cycle) of the considered model; oscillations (stable n-cycles, n=2,4,16,…), “the economy marks time”; chaotic fluctuations. This result for the models of economic growth has not been described in the literature. Сравнительный анализ неоклассической модели Р. Солоу и ее модифицированной версии в реализации технологического прогресса показал неоспоримые преимущества модифицированной модели Солоу. Модифицированная версия модели экономического роста Р. Солоу, основанная на n-ступенчатой производственной функции в виде n S-образных функций для реализации технического прогресса, обеспечивает рост экономики на достаточно большом временном интервале, сопоставимом с продолжительность жизненного цикла исследуемой экономики. В интервале, называемом “технологическим разрывом”, интенсивный выпуск y(t) может осуществляться в соответствии со следующими вариантами: монотонное снижение производительности (стабильный 1-цикл) рассматриваемой модели; колебания (устойчивые n-циклы, n = 2,4,16,…), “экономика топчется на месте”; хаотические колебания. Перечисленные результаты для моделей экономического роста в литературе не описаны. Порівняльний аналіз неокласичної моделі Р. Солоу і її модифікованої версії в реалізації технологічного прогресу показав незаперечні переваги модифікованої моделі Солоу. Модифікована версія моделі економічного зростання Р. Солоу, що заснована на n-ступінчастій виробничій функції у вигляді n S-подібних функцій для реалізації технічного прогресу, забезпечує зростання економіки на достатньо великому часовому інтервалі, порівнянному з тривалістью життєвого циклу досліджуваної економіки. В інтервалі, званому “технологічним розривом”, інтенсивний випуск y(t) може здійснюватися у відповідності з наступними варіантами: монотонне зниження продуктивності (стабільний 1-цикл) розглянутої моделі; коливання (стійкі n -цикли , n = 2,4,16, ...), “економіка тупцює на місці”; хаотичні коливання. Перераховані результати для моделей економічного зростання в літературі не описані. The National Technical University of Ukraine &quot;Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute&quot; 2021-09-30 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/244603 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.3.08 System research and information technologies; No. 3 (2021); 99-109 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 3 (2021); 99-109 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 3 (2021); 99-109 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/244603/242418
spellingShingle модифікована модель Р. Солоу
технологічний розрив
періодичні цикли і хаос
Lopatin, Alexey
Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків
title Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків
title_alt Technology progress implementation based on a modified version of R.M. Solow economic growth model: with production s-curve consisting of n-steps
Реализация технологического прогресса на основе модифицированной версии модели экономического роста Р.М. Солоу: s-образная кривая производства, состоящая из n-шагов
title_full Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків
title_fullStr Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків
title_full_unstemmed Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків
title_short Реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання Р.М. Солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків
title_sort реалізація технологічного прогресу на основі модифікованої версії моделі економічного зростання р.м. солоу: s-подібна крива виробництва, щo складається з n-кроків
topic модифікована модель Р. Солоу
технологічний розрив
періодичні цикли і хаос
topic_facet модифікована модель Р. Солоу
технологічний розрив
періодичні цикли і хаос
модифицированная модель Р. Солоу
технологический разрыв
периодические циклы и хаос
modified Solow’s model
technology gap
periodic cycles and chaos
url https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/244603
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