Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів
The construction of morphological model is considered for undesirable events regarding urban objects, as well as the consequences of such events, including interruption of operation, feasibility and time of restoration, material damage and casualties, ecological risks. Using this model, two-stage mo...
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The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"
2021
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| author | Pankratova, Nataliia Haiko, Hennadii Savchenko, Illia |
| author_facet | Pankratova, Nataliia Haiko, Hennadii Savchenko, Illia |
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| description | The construction of morphological model is considered for undesirable events regarding urban objects, as well as the consequences of such events, including interruption of operation, feasibility and time of restoration, material damage and casualties, ecological risks. Using this model, two-stage modified morphological analysis was conducted for two types of objects: pipe and tunnel depressed sewers. The results of comparison for depressed sewer crossings using the developed model are demonstrated both for the whole multitude of potential undesirable events and for the specific scenarios of sabotage, landslide, operational damage. The advantage of a tunneled depressed sewer over a pipe one is justified from the standpoint of minimization of technogenic and ecological risks of sewage draining. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.4.04 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:38Z |
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N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko, 2021
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 53
TIДC
ПРОБЛЕМИ ПРИЙНЯТТЯ РІШЕНЬ ТА
УПРАВЛІННЯ В ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ, ТЕХНІЧНИХ,
ЕКОЛОГІЧНИХ І СОЦІАЛЬНИХ СИСТЕМАХ
UDC 519.876.2
DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.4.04
MORPHOLOGICAL MODEL FOR UNDERGROUND
CROSSINGS OF WATER OBJECTS1
N.D. PANKRATOVA, H.I. HAIKO, I.O. SAVCHENKO
Abstract. The construction of morphological model is considered for undesirable
events regarding urban objects, as well as the consequences of such events, includ-
ing interruption of operation, feasibility and time of restoration, material damage
and casualties, ecological risks. Using this model, two-stage modified morphological
analysis was conducted for two types of objects: pipe and tunnel depressed sewers.
The results of comparison for depressed sewer crossings using the developed model
are demonstrated both for the whole multitude of potential undesirable events and
for the specific scenarios of sabotage, landslide, operational damage. The advantage
of a tunneled depressed sewer over a pipe one is justified from the standpoint of
minimization of technogenic and ecological risks of sewage draining.
Keywords: ecological risks; technogenic risks; underground infrastructure; sewage
draining; system methodology; morphological analysis; depressed sewer crossing.
INTRODUCTION
Managing urban development with the purpose of increasing ecological standards
and life safety in continuously growing metropolises is one of the most urgent but
simultaneously complex and insufficiently researched world problems [1]. Un-
derground communications that support human activities are one of the most dif-
ficult problems of urban planning in metropolises. Significant advantages of un-
derground crossings beneath water objects and through coastal underground
infrastructure comprise a large part of underground construction agenda in the
influence zone of water objects [2, 3]. Impact analysis of structures adjacent to an
underwater tunnel is more complex compared to the case of ordinary tunnels.
Currently an empirical division method of zonal influence of structures adjacent
to the tunnel is common but it generates a tangible uncertainty. Therefore, actual
design and construction require identifying exact influence zones using theoretical
calculations given in [4]. In [5] a bunch of topics regarding tunneling is presented,
tracking the evolution of methods and tools from analytical to computing periods.
In [5] a review of recent studies and the classifications of methods is also given,
followed by several problems for anisotropic rock structures using finite element
1 The presented results were obtained in the National Research Fund of Ukraine project
2020.01/0247 «System methodology-based tool set for planning underground infrastructure of large
cities providing minimization of ecological and technogenic risks of urban space».
N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 54
method, and the application of the artificial intelligence tools is considered for
data interpretation and estimation of relative importance of parameters related to
the problem of surface sinking caused by tunnels. Papers [6, 7] also employed
various numerical methods for assessing the influence zone of structures adjacent
to a tunnel.
World concepts of ecologization of urban space pay significant attention to
the capacities of underground space to take over the functions of the most hazard-
ous and risky surface structures and communications, providing minimization of
ecological and technogenic risks in large cities [8]. These trends are also seen in
the General Plan of Kyiv city up to 2025, where a large-scale development of un-
derground infrastructure was envisioned, although its implementation lags behind
the planned indicators.
PROBLEM STATEMENT
One of the critical infrastructure objects in Kyiv is the system of sewage transfer
from the right to the left Dnipro river bank. Bortnychi aeration station, which was
issued over $1 billion for reconstruction by Japanese government, holds the risks
of a technogenic catastrophe on a national scale, as all the sewage from the right-
bank Kyiv and neighboring towns of the capital agglomeration is transferred
between the river banks by a group of metal pipes on the Dnipro river bottom.
Their service life is long past due, and the implemented protection system in the
form of polyethylene hoses pulled through pipes, is only a temporary emergency
measure. A technical pipe burst or a sabotage might ruin the ecological safety
down the whole Dnipro river current. To compare the system of pipe and tunnel
depressed sewer crossings, and to form recommendations regarding planning an
underground Dnipro river crossing tunnel, a morphological model was con-
structed, and testing of construction variants was conducted.
The purpose of the morphological model is to describe the undesirable
events that can potentially impact the chosen underground urban object or a type
of objects. These undesirable events include natural emergencies and disasters, as
well as technogenic or anthropogenic events (including those with malicious in-
tent: military actions, terrorism acts). The result of the modeling is the analysis of
expected consequences for the object, the opportunity to compare different
objects or their designs by their stability and capacity to withstand various
harmful events.
The modeling was performed using the two-stage modified morphological
analysis method (MMAM) [9, 10], where the first stage describes the multitude of
potential undesirable events, and the second stage analyzes the consequences of
these events in different aspects. A feature of this study is that the relations be-
tween the parameters of undesirable events, and their consequences, fundamen-
tally differ for various objects and types of objects, which is why each single
object requires not only filling in the initial assessment of alternatives as was the
case in previous studies [11–13], but also a separate evaluation of the cross-
consistency and dependency matrices.
CONSTRUCTING A MORPHOLOGICAL MODEL OF UNDESIRABLE EVENTS
FOR DEPRESSED SEWER CROSSINGS OF DNIPRO RIVER
To pick the critical characteristic parameters of undesirable events and their con-
sequences, a legislative and normative database of documents regarding the
Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 55
threats to human safety and urban space was processed. The analysis allowed to
select three main characteristic parameters of undesirable events, relevant for this
research:
Parameter 1: Undesirable event type. Only the prior cause, or a trigger, of
an undesirable event is considered. Obviously the undesirable events can start a
chain reaction: for example, an explosion causes a fire, which causes destruction
etc. However, in the study, all of the disruptive processes following the initial im-
pact, are treated as consequences. Considering all possible chains of undesirable
events is impossible and irrational.
The developed universal model contains six alternatives for main types of
undesirable events:
explosion;
fire;
landslide, landfall, subsidence of soil;
weather cataclysm;
operational damage or structural failure;
disruption of operation without damage.
It should be noted that for some of the objects, specific undesirable event
types from the universal model are impossible (e.g. a fire for an underwater de-
pressed sewer pipe). This alternative receives the initial value “0” and thus does
not participate in the following MMAM procedure.
Parameter 2: Undesirable event origin. Four alternative origins for unde-
sirable events were chosen:
anthropogenic with malicious intent (terrorism, sabotage, military action);
anthropogenic without malicious intent (human errors, negligence, non-
compliance to construction and operation safety);
technical, technological (malfunctions, technical failures, damage due to
technological factors, corrosion, etc.);
natural (atmospheric, hydrospheric, lithospheric perturbation, natural
disasters).
Parameter 3: Undesirable event scale. Five alternatives of undesirable
event scale were considered:
separate structural or functional element of the object, or a separate sec-
tion;
several structural or functional elements of the object, or several sections;
the object as a whole;
the object and its neighboring objects;
city region and more.
Studying catastrophes of larger scale was beyond the scope of this research,
as only the consequences of an undesirable event for a single urban object were
modeled. That is why the larger scale disasters were united in an alternative “city
region and more”.
Using the chosen parameters, a morphological table for general description
of a multitude of undesirable events was constructed (Table 1). The morphologi-
cal set for this table comprises of 120 configurations.
N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 56
T a b l e 1 . Description of undesirable events
Parameter Alternative
1.1 Explosion
1.2 Fire
1.3 Landslide, landfall, subsidence of soil
1.4 Weather cataclysm
1.5 Operational damage or structural failure
1. Undesirable
event type
1.6 Disruption of operation without damage
2.1 Anthropogenic with malicious intent
2.2 Anthropogenic without malicious intent
2.3 Technical, technological
2. Undesirable
event origin
2.4 Natural
3.1 Separate structural or functional element of the object,
or a separate section
3.2 Several structural or functional elements of the object,
or several sections
3.3 Object as a whole
3.4 Object and its neighboring objects
3. Undesirable
event scale
3.5 City region and more
Obviously the table parameters are notably interrelated, so the model con-
struction requires estimating and taking into account their cross-consistency ma-
trix; moreover, this matrix should be separately assessed for each individual stud-
ied object type, as the undesirable events’ parameters might have different
relations for different types of objects.
The morphological table for the second stage of research contains the pa-
rameters of consequences of undesirable events, and their alternatives. As the
consequences are sufficiently diverse, their comprehensive description required 8
parameters (Table 2).
T a b l e 2 . Description of consequences after undesirable events
Parameter Alternative
A.1 No damage or negligible damage
A.2 Damage may be undone without interruption of operation
A.3 Damage may be undone with interruption of operation
A. Integrity of the
object and
its parts
A.4 Damage is irreversible
B.1 Object may perform all of its functions
B.2 Object may perform a portion of its functions
B. Operational
capacity
B.3 Object stops functioning
C.1 Object’s functions can be transferred without limitations
C.2 Object’s functions can be transferred with some limitations
C.3 Object’s functions can be transferred with significant limitations
C. Potential to
transfer
functions
to other objects C.4 Object’s functions cannot be transferred
D.1 Operation restore time is unnecessary
D.2 Operation restore time up to 7 days
D.3 Operation restore time up to 1 month
D.4 Operation restore time up to 1 year
D. Operation
restore
time
D.5 The object cannot be restored during 1 year
Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 57
Continued Tabl. 2
Parameter Alternative
E.1 None
E.2 Up to 10 persons
E.3 10–50 persons
E.4 50–200 persons
E. Casualties
E.5 More than 200 persons
F.1 None
F.2 Up to 10 persons
F.3 10–100 persons
F.4 100–1000 persons
F. Affected
citizens
F.5 More than 1000 persons
G.1 Up to 100 minimum wage values (MW)
G.2 100–1000 MW
G.3 1000–10000 MW
G. Material
damage
G.4 More than 10000 MW
H.1 No tangible ecological consequences
H.2 Slight, local, short-term worsening of the ecological situation
H.3 Significant long-term worsening of the ecological situation in a large
area
H. Ecological
consequences
H.4 Ecological catastrophe
To create a complete morphological model, the following assessments are
necessary:
preliminary probability estimates for alternatives of undesirable events;
cross-consistency matrix estimates for alternatives of undesirable events;
dependency matrix estimates for alternatives of undesirable events and
their consequences.
This data was obtained using expert assessment. Preliminary probability es-
timates for alternatives of undesirable events were obtained using questions in the
following form:
Please rate how likely is Undesirable event type – Explosion
Impossible
Very
unlikely
Unlikely
Somewhat
unlikely
Average
Somewhat
likely
Likely
Very
likely
The questions regarding cross-consistency and dependency matrices were
put in the following form:
How does Undesirable event type influence Integrity of the object and its
parts?
1. Undesirable event type: 1.1. Explosion
How does
1.1. Explosion
influence the weight of
A.1. Negligible damage
S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
S
li
gh
tl
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
D
oe
s
no
t i
n-
fl
ue
nc
e
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
How does
1.1. Explosion influence the
weight of A.2. Damage
may be undone without
interruption of operation S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
S
li
gh
tl
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
D
oe
s
no
t
in
fl
ue
nc
e
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 58
Continued
1. Undesirable event type: 1.1. Explosion
How does 1.1. Explosion
influence the weight of
A.3. Damage may be
undone with interruption
of operation S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
S
li
gh
tl
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
D
oe
s
no
t
in
fl
ue
nc
e
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
How does 1.1. Explosion
influence the weight of
A.4. Damage is
irreversible
S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
de
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
S
li
gh
tl
y
de
cr
ea
se
s
D
oe
s
no
t i
n-
fl
ue
nc
e
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
M
od
er
at
el
y
in
cr
ea
se
s
N
ot
ab
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
S
ig
ni
fi
ca
nt
ly
in
cr
ea
se
s
The model was implemented for two chosen critical urban infrastructure ob-
jects: depressed sewer as a complex of pipes at the bottom of Dnipro river, and
the project of a tunneled depressed sewer beneath the Dnipro river (Fig. 1).
Input estimates of undesirable event alternatives, as well as the results of tak-
ing into account the cross-consistency matrix by the MMAM procedure for these
estimates, are given in Table 3.
T a b l e 3 . Normalized input probabilities of undesirable events, and the results
after taking their interdependency into account
Normalized
input
probabilities
Probabilities
factoring
interdependency
Depressed sewer Depressed sewer
Parameter Alternative
Pipes Tunnel Pipes Tunnel
1.1 Explosion 0,232 0,212 0,440 0,107
1.2 Fire 0,000 0,030 0,000 0,022
1.3 Landslide, landfall, subsidence of
soil
0,286 0,303 0,198 0,366
1.4 Weather cataclysm 0,071 0,030 0,002 0,000
1.5 Operational damage or
structural failure
0,232 0,303 0,247 0,414
1. Undesirable
event type
1.6 Disruption of operation without
damage
0,179 0,121 0,113 0,090
2.1 Anthropogenic with malicious intent 0,372 0,250 0,550 0,154
2.2 Anthropogenic without malicious
intent
0,163 0,036 0,006 0,001
2.3 Technical, technological 0,302 0,464 0,409 0,631
2. Undesirable
event origin
2.4 Natural 0,163 0,250 0,035 0,214
3.1 Separate structural or functional
element of the object, or a separate
section
0,019 0,500 0,056 0,617
3.2 Several structural or functional ele-
ments of the object, or several sections
0,019 0,313 0,053 0,368
3.3 Object as a whole 0,302 0,125 0,533 0,015
3.4 Object and its neighboring
objects
0,302 0,031 0,197 0,000
3. Undesirable
event scale
3.5 City region and more 0,358 0,031 0,160 0,000
Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 59
F
ig
. 1
. A
d
ep
re
ss
ed
s
ew
er
c
ro
ss
in
g
of
D
ni
pr
o
ri
ve
r
in
K
yi
v
as
a
c
om
pl
ex
o
f
pi
pe
s
N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 60
Using the assessments obtained at the first stage (Table 3), and the depend-
ency matrix values, the consequences analysis results were computed via the sec-
ond stage MMAM procedure. The resulting evaluation is presented in Table 4.
T a b l e 4 . Undesirable event consequences considering the emergence of any
possible undesirable event
Estimate
Depressed sewer Parameter Alternative
Pipes Tunnel
A.1 No damage or negligible damage 0,018 0,051
A.2 Damage may be undone without interruption of operation 0,021 0,417
A.3 Damage may be undone with interruption of operation 0,544 0,530
A. Integrity
of the object
and its parts
A.4 Damage is irreversible 0,416 0,001
B.1 Object may perform all of its functions 0,000 0,269
B.2 Object may perform a portion of its functions 0,019 0,656
B. Operational
capacity
B.3 Object stops functioning 0,981 0,075
C.1 Object’s functions can be transferred without
limitations
0,005 0,025
C.2 Object’s functions can be transferred with some limita-
tions
0,100 0,561
C.3 Object’s functions can be transferred with
significant limitations
0,322 0,401
C. Potential
to transfer
functions
to other
objects
C.4 Object’s functions cannot be transferred 0,574 0,014
D.1 Operation restore time is unnecessary 0,000 0,004
D.2 Operation restore time up to 7 days 0,009 0,455
D.3 Operation restore time up to 1 month 0,174 0,524
D.4 Operation restore time up to 1 year 0,570 0,017
D. Operation
restore time
D.5 The object cannot be restored during 1 year 0,246 0,000
E.1 None 0,966 0,992
E.2 Up to 10 persons 0,034 0,008
E.3 10–50 persons 0,000 0,000
E.4 50–200 persons 0,000 0,000
E. Casualties
E.5 More than 200 persons 0,000 0,000
F.1 None 0,000 0,811
F.2 Up to 10 persons 0,000 0,006
F.3 10–100 persons 0,021 0,006
F.4 100–1000 persons 0,427 0,038
F. Affected
citizens
F.5 More than 1000 persons 0,551 0,140
G.1 Up to 100 minimum wage values (MW) 0,001 0,464
G.2 100–1000 MW 0,259 0,512
G.3 1000–10000 MW 0,431 0,024
G. Material
damage
G.4 More than 10000 MW 0,309 0,000
H.1 No tangible ecological consequences 0,000 0,894
H.2 Slight, local, short-term worsening of the
ecological situation
0,142 0,105
H.3 Significant long-term worsening of the ecological
situation in a large area
0,500 0,001
H. Ecological
consequences
H.4 Ecological catastrophe 0,357 0,000
Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 61
Table 4 allows to make several comparative conclusions:
generally an underwater tunnel provides for better resistance to potential
damage in case of any undesirable events. Parameter A (Integrity of the object
and its parts) has the same most probable alternative A.3 – “Damage may be un-
done with interruption of operation” for both objects (with weights 0,544 for
pipes, and 0,530 for an underground tunnel), however the second most significant
alternative is A.4 – “Damage is irreversible” for pipes (with 0,416 weight), while
in case of an underground tunnel the same is true for alternative A.2 – “Damage
may be undone without interruption of operation” (with 0,417 weight), and the
weight of A.4 – “Damage is irreversible” is close to zero for an underground tun-
nel. This situation is even more demonstrative for parameter B (Operational ca-
pacity): a depressed sewer in the form of pipes has the weight 0,981 of B.3 – “Ob-
ject stops functioning”, pointing at very low resistance to damage in case of
undesirable events. For comparison, the weight of the same alternative for an un-
derground tunnel is 0,075, meaning that it is highly resistant to total cease of its
operation;
when considering parameter C (Potential to transfer functions to other ob-
jects) it is worth noting that in the studied concept of the underground tunnel, the
existing system of pipes is not dismantled but left as a reserve system, which can
explain the weights received by alternatives of this parameter for the underground
tunnel: C.2 – “Object’s functions can be transferred with some limitations” has
value 0,561, and C.3 – “Object’s functions can be transferred with significant
limitations” with value 0,401. A depressed sewer in the form of pipes has the
highest weights for alternatives C.4 – “Object’s functions cannot be transferred”
(value 0,574), and C.3 – “Object’s functions can be transferred with significant
limitations” (value 0,322);
parameter D (Operation restore time) also shows advantage of the under-
ground tunnel over underwater pipes. The alternatives with the highest weight are
D.4 – “Operation restore time up to 1 year” (value 0,507) and D.5 – “The object
cannot be restored during 1 year” (value 0,246) for underwater pipes. As for the
underground tunnel, its alternatives with the highest weight are D.3 – “Operation
restore time up to 1 month” (value 0,524) and D.2 – “Operation restore time up to
7 days” (value 0,455);
similar results were obtained for parameter G (Material damage). Under-
water pipes have the following ranking of alternatives: G.3 – “1000–10000 MW”
(value 0,431), G.4 – “More than 10000 MW” (value 0,309), G.2 – “100–1000
MW” (value 0,259), and the underground tunnel has the following ranking: G.2 –
“100–1000 MW” (value 0,512), G.1 – “Up to 100 MW” (value 0,464), meaning
that the process of restoring an underground tunnel generally takes nearly up to 10
times less resources compared to the underwater pipes;
parameter E (Casualties) is not tangible in this study due to the nature of
the considered objects. Direct casualties are close to impossible, since the process
of transferring sewage is mostly automated, without human presence. The impor-
tance of this parameter will be more significant for other types of urban objects;
the estimation results for parameter F (Affected citizens) again proves the
results obtained for previous parameters. Since the operation will most likely be
disrupted in case an undesirable event happens to underwater pipes, the affected
urban population will be very high (F.5 – “More than 1000 persons”, with weight
0,551). An underground tunnel received the highest weight for alternative F.1 –
“None”, with weight 0,811. Intermediate alternatives F.2 – “Up to 10 persons”,
F.3 – “10–100 persons” in both cases received very low values, since disrupting
N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 62
the sewage system immediately causes harm to living conditions of a large num-
ber of people, underlining the critical nature of this urban infrastructure element;
the parameter H (Ecological consequences) is one of the most convincing
to prove the advantage of a depressed sewer as an underground tunnel compared
to underwater pipes, as the ecological consequences in case an undesirable event
happens are mostly negligible for an underwater tunnel (alternative H.1 – “No
tangible ecological consequences” with weight 0,894), while disruptions for un-
derwater pipes bear very harmful impact for ecology (alternatives H.3 – “Signifi-
cant long-term worsening of the ecological situation in a large area” with weight
0,500, H.4 – “Ecological catastrophe” with weight 0,357), denoting much higher
ecological risk.
Thus, an underground tunnel for a depressed sewer outperforms underwater
pipes under almost all of the criteria, and for some important criteria this advan-
tage is overwhelming.
The modified morphological analysis method allows also to conduct
inference “what-if” analysis, selecting a configuration, or a group of
configurations that contain a specific type of threats at the first stage.
Respectively, at the second stage the consequences are shown only for a chosen
type of threat, allowing to model and compare different scenarios.
In this study three scenarios of undesirable events were taken, determined by
the configurations of the MT at the first stage:
Scenario 1 (sabotage through undermining): 1.1 – Explosion, 2.1 – Anthro-
pogenic with malicious intent, 3.2 – Several structural or functional elements, or
several sections;
Scenario 2 (technogenic threat): 1.5 – Operational damage and/or destruction
of object or its parts, 2.3 – Technical, technological, 3.2 – Several structural or
functional elements, or several sections;
Scenario 3 (natural threat): 1.3 – Landslides, landfalls, subsidence of soil,
2.3 – Technical, technological, 3.3 – Whole object.
Also scenario 4 was considered – an undefined sabotage, which specifies
only the origin of the event – 2.1, «Anthropogenic with malicious intent», leaving
the exact details undetermined to better understand the multitude of potential mili-
tary and sabotage threats.
The results of modeling for scenario 1 are shown in Fig. 2–5. The results for
a depressed sewer in the form of a complex of pipes are labeled “Pipes”, and the
tunneled depressed sewer is labeled “Tunnel”.
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
B.1 Object may
perform all of its
functions
B.2 Object may
perform a portion of
its functions
B.3 Object stops
functioning
Pipes
Tunnel
Fig. 2. Diagram of weights for parameter B (Operational capacity)
Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 63
Diagrams allow to compare and evaluate scenarios for underwater pipes
and underground tunnels. It is notable that the most disruptive event (explosion)
leaves a small chance of full operation for a depressed sewer in an underground
tunnel (with 0,142 weight), whereas the underwater pipes have zero chance of
performing all or a part of functions (Fig. 2). Even in the case of an explosion,
an underground tunnel retains high chance of performing a part of functions
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
F.1 None F.2 Up to
10 persons
F.3 10–100
persons
F.4
100–1000
persons
F.5 More
than 1000
persons
Pipes
Tunnel
Fig. 3. Diagram of weights for parameter F (Affected citizens)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
G.1 Up to 100
MW
G.2 100–1000
MW
G.3
1000–10000
MW
G.4 More
than 10000
MW
Pipes
Tunnel
Fig. 4. Diagram of weights for parameter G (Material damage)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
H.1 No tangible
ecological
consequences
H.2 Slight, local,
short-term
worsening of the
ecological
situation
H.3 Significant
long-term
worsening of the
ecological
situation in a large
area
H.4 Ecological
catastrophe
Pipes
Tunnel
Fig. 5. Diagram of weights for parameter H (Ecological consequences)
N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 64
(weight appr. 0,8). Affecting living conditions of population is the only criterion
where the results of underwater pipes and an underground tunnel are relatively
close, as disrupting any kind of sewage system will have radical consequences for
a large portion of Kyiv population (Fig. 3). Material damage for an underground
tunnel mostly falls in the alternatives up to 1000 minimum wages (weight 0,87)
for repair of casing, hydroisolation etc., while for the underwater pipes an
explosion means total destruction with expenses on restoration and elimination of
ecological damage, up to 10000 minimum wages and even more (total weight
0,76 – Fig. 4). Diagram for parameter H (Ecological consequences) is also very
significant. A burst of sewage into Dnipro river may lead to an ecological
catastrophe for the whole river basin. As the diagram in Fig. 5 clearly shows, an
explosion in an underground tunnel does not impact the ecological situation
(weight 0,73), as it lies tens of meters beneath the river bottom, and damage to
casing will not impact the situation. Local short-term worsening of ecological
situation (weight 0,27) may be caused by an exposure of sewage to underground
waters, but it does not have a threatening scale. On the other hand, a disruption of
underwater pipes causes an ecological catastrophe (weight 0,52) or at least a significant
long-term worsening of the ecological situation in a large area (weight 0,47).
Results of morphological modeling with fixed parameters, corresponding to
scenarios 2–4, are shown in the diagrams at Fig. 6–9.
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
A.1 No damage
or negligible
damage
A.2 Damage
may be undone
without
interruption of
operation
A.3 Damage
may be undone
with interruption
of operation
A.4 Damage is
irreversible
General (pipes)
Technical (pipes)
Malicious (pipes)
General (tunnel)
Technical (tunnel)
Malicious (tunnel)
Fig. 6. Diagram of weights for parameter A (Integrity of the object and its parts)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
General (pipes)
Technical (pipes)
Malicious (pipes)
General (tunnel)
Technical (tunnel)
Malicious (tunnel)
D.1
Unneces-
sary
D.2
Up t0 7
days
D.3
Up t0 1
minth
D.4
Up t0 1
years
D.5
Cannot be
restored
Fig. 7. Diagram of weights for parameter D (Operation restore time)
Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 65
Diagrams in Fig. 6–9 once again visibly confirm the advantage of an under-
ground tunnel over underwater pipes, obtained in the modeling results, and this
advantage is present in any scenarios.
CONCLUSIONS
The conducted analysis proves that a depressed sewer as a system of pipes is a
vulnerable infrastructure object that may be a target for sabotage or a terrorist at-
tack with catastrophic consequences for urban safety, and ecology. Simultane-
ously the obtained results demonstrate high reliability of a tunneled depressed
sewer under conditions of military or sabotage threats, and justify the advisability
of transferring the respective part of the urban infrastructure into underground
space.
The comparison of scenarios shows that intentionally created undesirable
events (sabotage, terrorism acts) generally cause more severe consequences, with
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
H.1 No tangible
ecological
consequences
H.2 Slight,
local, short-
term worsening
of the
ecological
situation
H.3 Significant
long-term
worsening of
the ecological
situation in a
large area
H.4 Ecological
catastrophe
General (pipes)
Technical (pipes)
Malicious (pipes)
General (tunnel)
Technical (tunnel)
Malicious (tunnel)
Fig. 9. Diagram of weights for parameter H (Ecological consequences)
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
G.1 Up to 100
MW
G.2 100–1000
MW
G.3
1000–10000
MW
G.4 More than
10000 MW
General (pipes)
Technical (pipes)
Malicious (pipes)
General (tunnel)
Technical (tunnel)
Malicious (tunnel)
Fig. 8. Diagram of weights for parameter G (Material damage)
N.D. Pankratova, H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 66
higher damage if compared to undesirable events of natural or technogenic origin.
The developed technique and tool set of modified morphological analysis can be
applied for comparison of other infrastructure objects, laying the ground for a sys-
tem strategy of developing urban underground space aimed at the minimization of
military, technogenic and natural threats. The authors propose the inclusion of a
tunneled depressed sewer into the General Plan of Kyiv city.
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ban planning as a system of alternative project configurations (in Ukrainian). Kyiv:
Naukova Dumka, 2020, 134 p.
2. Michael Sakellariou, Tunnel Engineering – Selected Topics. Athens: National
Technical University of Athens, Books, IntechOpen, number 6201, 2020.
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5. Michael Sakellariou, “Topics of Analytical and Computational Methods in Tunnel
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2020. doi: 10.5772/intechopen.90849
6. M. Fang and Z. Liu, “3D numerical simulation of influence of undercrossing shield
construction on existing tunnel”, Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,
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7. J.X. Wang, X.Z. Yang, and B. Ruan, “Numerical simulation of shield tunnel
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https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Highlights.pdf
9. N.D. Pankratova and I.O. Savchenko, Morphological analysis. Problems, theory,
applications (in Ukrainian). Kyiv: Naukova Dumka, 2015, 245 p.
10. N. Pankratova, І. Savchenko, G. Gayko, and V. Kravets, “Evaluating Perspectives of
Urban Underground Construction Using Modified Morphological Analysis Method”,
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doi: 10.1615/JAutomatInfScien.v50.i10.30
11. H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko, and I.O. Matviichuk, “Development of a morphological
model for territorial development of underground city space”, Naukovyi Visnyk
Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, no. 3, рр. 92–98, 2019. Available:
doi.org/10.29202/nvngu/2019-3/14
12. H.I. Haiko, I.O. Savchenko, and V.V. Vapnichna, “Morphological model of devel-
opment of underground infrastructure of large cities for minimization of ecological
and technogenic risks of underground space (in Ukrainian)”, Scientific-technical
journal “Geoengineering”, no. 4, pp. 7–18, 2020.
13. H. Haiko, I. Savchenko, and I. Matviichuk, “A Morphological Analysis Method-
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Received 27.08.2021
Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 67
INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE
Nataliia D. Pankratova, ORCID: 0000-0002-6372-5813, Institute for Applied System
Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytech-
nic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: natalidmp@gmail.com
Hennadii I. Haiko, ORCID: 0000-0001-7471-3431, Institute of Energy Saving and En-
ergy Management of the National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv
Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: gayko.kpi@meta.ua
Illia O. Savchenko, ORCID: 0000-0002-0921-5425, Institute for Applied System
Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv
Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: savil.ua@gmail.com
МОРФОЛОГІЧНА МОДЕЛЬ ПІДЗЕМНИХ ПЕРЕХОДІВ ВОДНИХ ОБ’ЄКТІВ /
Н.Д. Панкратова, Г.І. Гайко, І.О. Савченко
Анотація. Розглянуто побудову морфологічної моделі небажаних подій щодо
урбаністичних об’єктів, а також наслідки цих подій включно з порушенням
здатності до функціонування, можливістю і термінами відновлення роботи,
матеріальними збитками і людськими втратами, екологічними ризиками. На
основі цієї моделі застосовано двохетапний модифікований метод морфологі-
чного аналізу для двох типів об’єктів: трубних і тунельних каналізаційних дю-
керів. Наведено результати порівняння дюкерних переходів із використанням
розробленої моделі як для випадку всієї множини потенційних несприятливих
подій, так і для випадку конкретних сценаріїв диверсії, зсуву ґрунтів, експлуа-
таційних пошкоджень. Обґрунтовано перевагу тунельного дюкера над труб-
ним з точки зору мінімізації техногенних та екологічних ризиків відведення
стічних вод.
Ключові слова: екологічні ризики, техногенні ризики, підземна інфраструкту-
ра, відведення стічних вод, системна методологія, морфологічний аналіз, дю-
керний перехід.
МОРФОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ПОДЗЕМНЫХ ПЕРЕХОДОВ ВОДНЫХ
ОБЪЕКТОВ / Н.Д. Панкратова, Г.И. Гайко, И.А. Савченко
Аннотация. Рассмотрено построение морфологической модели нежелатель-
ных событий относительно урбанистических объектов, а также последствий
этих событий, включая нарушение способности функционировать, возмож-
ность и сроки возобновления работы, материальный ущерб и человеческие по-
тери, экологические риски. На основе этой модели применено двухэтапный
модифицированный метод морфологического анализа для двух типов объек-
тов: трубных и туннельных канализационных дюкеров. Приведены результаты
сравнения дюкерных переходов с использованием разработанной модели как
для случая всего множества потенциальных нежелательных событий, так и для
случая конкретных сценариев диверсии, сдвига грунтов, эксплуатационных
повреждений. Обосновано преимущество туннельного дюкера над трубным с
точки зрения минимизации техногенных и экологических рисков отведения
сточных вод.
Ключевые слова: экологические риски, техногенные риски, подземная ин-
фраструктура, отведение сточных вод, системная методология, морфологиче-
ский анализ, дюкерный переход.
|
| id | journaliasakpiua-article-246020 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:38Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/8d/817e95a21864acbe18f2f52b7b40b18d.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-2460202022-06-20T14:19:48Z Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects Морфологическая модель подземных переходов водных объектов Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів Pankratova, Nataliia Haiko, Hennadii Savchenko, Illia екологічні ризики техногенні ризики підземна інфраструктура відведення стічних вод системна методологія морфологічний аналіз дюкерний перехід ecological risks technogenic risks underground infrastructure sewage draining system methodology morphological analysis depressed sewer crossing экологические риски техногенные риски подземная инфраструктура отведение сточных вод системная методология морфологический анализ дюкерный переход The construction of morphological model is considered for undesirable events regarding urban objects, as well as the consequences of such events, including interruption of operation, feasibility and time of restoration, material damage and casualties, ecological risks. Using this model, two-stage modified morphological analysis was conducted for two types of objects: pipe and tunnel depressed sewers. The results of comparison for depressed sewer crossings using the developed model are demonstrated both for the whole multitude of potential undesirable events and for the specific scenarios of sabotage, landslide, operational damage. The advantage of a tunneled depressed sewer over a pipe one is justified from the standpoint of minimization of technogenic and ecological risks of sewage draining. Рассмотрено построение морфологической модели нежелательных событий относительно урбанистических объектов, а также последствий этих событий, включая нарушение способности функционировать, возможность и сроки возобновления работы, материальный ущерб и человеческие потери, экологические риски. На основе этой модели применено двухэтапный модифицированный метод морфологического анализа для двух типов объектов: трубных и туннельных канализационных дюкеров. Приведены результаты сравнения дюкерных переходов с использованием разработанной модели как для случая всего множества потенциальных нежелательных событий, так и для случая конкретных сценариев диверсии, сдвига грунтов, эксплуатационных повреждений. Обосновано преимущество туннельного дюкера над трубным с точки зрения минимизации техногенных и экологических рисков отведения сточных вод. Розглянуто побудову морфологічної моделі небажаних подій щодо урбаністичних об’єктів, а також наслідки цих подій включно з порушенням здатності до функціонування, можливістю і термінами відновлення роботи, матеріальними збитками і людськими втратами, екологічними ризиками. На основі цієї моделі застосовано двохетапний модифікований метод морфологічного аналізу для двох типів об’єктів: трубних і тунельних каналізаційних дюкерів. Наведено результати порівняння дюкерних переходів із використанням розробленої моделі як для випадку всієї множини потенційних несприятливих подій, так і для випадку конкретних сценаріїв диверсії, зсуву ґрунтів, експлуатаційних пошкоджень. Обґрунтовано перевагу тунельного дюкера над трубним з точки зору мінімізації техногенних та екологічних ризиків відведення стічних вод. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2021-12-22 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/246020 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.4.04 System research and information technologies; No. 4 (2021); 53-67 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 4 (2021); 53-67 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 4 (2021); 53-67 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/246020/249489 |
| spellingShingle | екологічні ризики техногенні ризики підземна інфраструктура відведення стічних вод системна методологія морфологічний аналіз дюкерний перехід Pankratova, Nataliia Haiko, Hennadii Savchenko, Illia Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів |
| title | Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів |
| title_alt | Morphological model for underground crossings of water objects Морфологическая модель подземных переходов водных объектов |
| title_full | Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів |
| title_fullStr | Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів |
| title_full_unstemmed | Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів |
| title_short | Морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів |
| title_sort | морфологічна модель підземних переходів водних об’єктів |
| topic | екологічні ризики техногенні ризики підземна інфраструктура відведення стічних вод системна методологія морфологічний аналіз дюкерний перехід |
| topic_facet | екологічні ризики техногенні ризики підземна інфраструктура відведення стічних вод системна методологія морфологічний аналіз дюкерний перехід ecological risks technogenic risks underground infrastructure sewage draining system methodology morphological analysis depressed sewer crossing экологические риски техногенные риски подземная инфраструктура отведение сточных вод системная методология морфологический анализ дюкерный переход |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/246020 |
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