Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі
Using the mathematical apparatus of the multifactor regression analysis, the concept of faults between civilizations is verified, formalized and refined. The ethnocultural civilizational distribution of the countries is specified on the basis of the fuzzy cluster method. The mathematical model of fa...
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| author | Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan Perestyuk, Maria |
| author_facet | Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan Perestyuk, Maria |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "Michael Zgurovsky",
"institution": "National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
},
{
"author": "Maryna Kravchenko",
"institution": "National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
},
{
"author": "Ivan Pyshnograiev",
"institution": "National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
},
{
"author": "Maria Perestyuk",
"institution": "National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
}
] |
| author_sort | Zgurovsky, Michael |
| baseUrl_str | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2022-06-20T14:19:48Z |
| description | Using the mathematical apparatus of the multifactor regression analysis, the concept of faults between civilizations is verified, formalized and refined. The ethnocultural civilizational distribution of the countries is specified on the basis of the fuzzy cluster method. The mathematical model of fault lines between civilizations is elaborated, which affords the opportunity to estimate and analyze the quantitative values of these faults. Formally, the developed model offers the way to determine evolutionary regularities, systematize and econometrically verify the defining characteristics of actual civilizational clashes. The results of an analysis and comparison of modeling data of intercivilizational faults in 2008 and 2018 revealed the tendencies of individual civilizations to unite and clash, and the effect of these faults on the global conflict as well. The dependence of global threats on the proliferation of weapons and their individual components is assessed. The conflict effect on the socio-economic indicators of clashing civilizations is determined. The correspondence of the modeling outcomes to the real state of intercivilizational faults is verified by comparison with actual historical data. The results of the study encourage to form a comprehensive vision of the nature of modern clashes, whose emergence is caused by the faults between civilizations, and to determine their formal characteristics and regularities of their course. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.4.01 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:42Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk, 2021
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 7
TIДC
ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ ТА ПРИКЛАДНІ ПРОБЛЕМИ
І МЕТОДИ СИСТЕМНОГО АНАЛІЗУ
UDC 51-7(08)
DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.4.01
MODELING OF THE INTERCIVILIZATION FAULT EFFECT
ON THE CONFLICT INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
M. ZGUROVSKY, M. KRAVCHENKO, I. PYSHNOGRAIEV, M. PERESTYUK
Abstract. Using the mathematical apparatus of the multifactor regression analysis,
the concept of faults between civilizations is verified, formalized and refined. The
ethnocultural civilizational distribution of the countries is specified on the basis of
the fuzzy cluster method. The mathematical model of fault lines between civiliza-
tions is elaborated, which affords the opportunity to estimate and analyze the quanti-
tative values of these faults. Formally, the developed model offers the way to deter-
mine evolutionary regularities, systematize and econometrically verify the defining
characteristics of actual civilizational clashes. The results of an analysis and com-
parison of modeling data of intercivilizational faults in 2008 and 2018 revealed the
tendencies of individual civilizations to unite and clash, and the effect of these faults
on the global conflict as well. The dependence of global threats on the proliferation
of weapons and their individual components is assessed. The conflict effect on the so-
cio-economic indicators of clashing civilizations is determined. The correspondence
of the modeling outcomes to the real state of intercivilizational faults is verified by
comparison with actual historical data. The results of the study encourage to form a
comprehensive vision of the nature of modern clashes, whose emergence is caused
by the faults between civilizations, and to determine their formal characteristics and
regularities of their course.
Keywords: civilizations, clash of civilizations, conflicts, global threats, proliferation
of weapons, multifactor regression analysis, fuzzy cluster method.
INTRODUCTION
Predictions and foresights of human development in the 21st century based on dif-
ferent methods, ideologies and paradigms, give almost identical conclusions. The
vast majority of them confirms that the current century will be a turning point in
the planetary history of humanity. Therefore, there is a need to form new scientific
paradigms that most closely correspond to the present situation in the world and
can be used as a basis for its study.
One of the common paradigms of human development is based on the
concept of ethnocultural distribution of civilizations [1–11]. American political
scientist S. Huntington laid the basis for this paradigm in [1; 2]. He concludes that
the ideological confrontation that took place during the Cold War in the last
century, grows into a clash of civilizations. Unions and groups that were linked by
a common ideology in the 20th century, after the collapse of the Soviet Union
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 8
began to be replaced by civilizational clusters based on people’s belonging to a
common culture, traditions and value system.
It should be noted that S. Huntington was not the first and not the only one
who used a civilizational approach to explain global processes and trends. English
historian A. Toynbee is the classic of the civilization approach, he was the first to
present it [3]. N. Ferguson [4], D. Kitsikis [5], C. Quigley [6], O. Spengler [7]
should be noted among the followers of the concept. At the same time, due to the
lack of formalized evidence, the concept is often criticized. Y. Harari [8],
E. Henderson & R. Tucker [9], J. Fox [10], A. Mungiu-Pippidi & D. Mindruta [11]
are among the critics of the concept.
According to S. Huntington’s concept, it is the civilization which is
determined by the common cultural affiliation of people, that becomes the
dominant factor in world politics, and the world order configuration will be
determined by civilization interaction or clashes. The author identified eight basic
civilizations: Chinese, Japanese, Hindu, Muslim, Western, Orthodox, Latin
American, African. He noted that their interaction will create a fundamentally
different world order compared with the Cold War, where conflicts between
different civilizations will prevail over conflicts within individual civilizations.
And the most large-scale future conflicts will spread along the so-called fault
lines between civilizations [2].
Due to the lack of evidential base, S. Huntington’s concept is often criti-
cized. Therefore, in the proposed study, this concept was used as a hypothesis.
The following tasks are solved in the study on the basis of this hypothesis:
to build a quantitative model of the global ethnocultural civilization dis-
tribution using mathematical tools of system and multifactor regression analysis;
to quantify the “tension” of the fault lines between pairs of civilizations
on the basis of the assessment of civilization cultural differences;
to identify and actually confirm the regularities of the dynamics of the
civilization tendency to unite and clash, basing on the results of analysis of the
modeling data of 2008 and 2018;
to study evolutionary tendencies and systematize and verify the defining
characteristics of the clash of civilizations;
to assess the level of the global threat of arms proliferation and analyze its
relationship with the growing conflict in the world;
to determine the effect of conflict on the socio-economic indicators of
clashing civilizations.
MODELING OF GLOBAL ETHNOCULTURAL CIVILIZATION
DISTRIBUTION
In order to analyze the interaction between civilizations and determine the charac-
teristics of the faults between them, we performed modeling of ethnocultural civi-
lizational distribution. This task was solved in several stages [12; 13].
Building a Model of Ethnocultural Distribution of Civilizations
Basing on the work of the group of experts [14], a system of eight basic criteria
was formed, which to the fullest extent possible, characterize the cultural differ-
ences between civilizations (Table 1).
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 9
T a b l e 1 . System of criteria that characterize the cultural differences between
civilizations
Verbal description
of the criteria value fluctuation range
C
ri
te
ri
on
n
u
m
b
er
Criterion
denomination
C
ri
te
ri
on
co
d
e
Minimum value (Average value) Maximum value
1
Value of
human life
VHL
Human life
goes for nothing
Value of human
life is determined
by circumstances
Human life
is the highest value
2
Personal
freedom
in society
PFS
Lack of freedom of
movement, personal
life, expression
of own views, etc.
Regulated degree
of freedom of
movement, personal
life, expression of
own views, etc.
Absolute freedom
of movement,
personal life,
liberalism
of views, etc.
3
Status of women
in society
SWS
Absolute male
dominance
Gender
parity
Absolute female
dominance
4
Penetration
of religion into
people's lives
DRL
Religious and
ecclesiastical
institutions do not
affect people's lives
Religious and
ecclesiastical
institutions have a
moderate effect on
people's lives
Religious and ec-
clesiastical
institutions
completely dictate
people's lives
5
Ethnic
uniformity
EU
Lack of tolerance of
interethnic
relations
in civilization
Controlled
and regulated
interethnic relations
in civilization
Absolute
tolerance of inter-
ethnic relations
in civilization
6
Open-mindedness
of civilization
to other cultures
OCC
Absolute
closedness
to the penetration of
other cultures
Moderate
controlled
penetration of
other cultures
Absolute
openness to the
penetration of other
cultures
7
Traditionalism
of culture
and thinking
TCT
Variable upgradeable
traditions and
worldview
Modernized
traditions and
worldview
Unchanged
traditions and
worldview
8
Radicalism of
political life
RPL
Uncertainty of po-
litical course
and instability of
political life
Moderate
variability of
political course
and political life
Rooted political
course, stability
of political life
The next step in the study consisted in clustering countries in terms of be-
longing to certain civilizations based on the assessment of cultural differences
between them. A team of experts with many years of experience in international
activities in the groups of the respective countries was formed, and the format of
the expert questionnaire presented in Fig. 1 was developed.
The formation of the list of civilizations, defined by a set of identified clus-
ters, was carried out by reaching a compromise between the historical and mental
features of their cultures and identifying the most important features of each civi-
lization. As a result, the civilizational distribution of countries proposed formerly
by S. Huntington was clarified (Fig. 2).
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 10
Miller’s scale
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Almost
identical
Very small
differences
Small
differences
Moderate
differences
Large
differences
Very big
differences
Absolutely
opposite
Fig. 1. Expert questionnaire for assessing cultural differences between civilizations
Expert Assessment of Cultural Differences Between Civilizations and
Calculation of Quantitative Characteristics of Fault Lines Between Them
The task of formalizing the group expert evaluation of alternatives was considered
on the basis of the intellectual analysis of data received from expert polls. Let
18m experts evaluate 13n objects by 8l indicators. The estimates are pre-
sented in the form xij
h, here i is the object number, j is the expert’s number, and h
is the number of the comparison index. Insofar as the evaluation of objects is per-
formed by the method of sequential comparison, the values xij
h are numerical es-
timates (scores).
In order to obtain a group score, we use the average values of the scores
given by experts for each pair of civilizations according to the relevant criteria:
l
h
m
j
j
h
ijhi nikxqx
1 1
),1( , (1)
Orthodox
Fig. 2. The updated list of civilizations (compared with the S. Huntington’s distribution
[1; 2], where eight civilizations are singled out)
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 11
here hq are coefficients of index weights, and jk are coefficients of expert com-
petences.
Using (1), group estimates of pairwise comparisons of thirteen civilizations
were calculated according to eight criteria. The generalized tension measure,
which determines the degree of fault between all pairs of civilizations according
to the relevant criteria, is defined as a superposition:
),,,,,,,( ,,,,,,,,),( ji
RPL
ji
TCT
ji
OCC
ji
EU
ji
DRL
ji
SWS
ji
PFS
ji
VYL
jiciv
conf JJJJJJJJJ .
Determine the Euclidean norm of the tension radius vector for each pair of
civilizations:
),( jiciv
confJ
.)()()()()()()()( 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2, ji
RPL
ji
TCT
ji
OCC
ji
EU
ji
DRL
ji
SWS
ji
PFS
ji
VYL JJJJJJJJ
Quantitative measure of tension is defined as the projection of the norm of
this vector on an ideal vector with coordinates (1;1;1;1;1;1;1;1):
),( jiciv
confJ
2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2, )()()()()()()()( ji
RPL
ji
TCT
ji
OCC
ji
EU
ji
DRL
ji
SWS
ji
PFS
ji
VYL JJJJJJJJ
cos .
The angle of deviation of the tension radius vector from the ideal vector
(1; 1; 1; 1; 1; 1; 1; 1) is defined as:
arccos
.
)()()()()()()()(22
),,,,,,,(
2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,
,,,,,,,,
ji
RPL
ji
TCT
ji
OCC
ji
EU
ji
DRL
ji
SWS
ji
PFS
ji
VYL
ji
RPL
ji
TCT
ji
OCC
ji
EU
ji
DRL
ji
SWS
ji
PFS
ji
VYL
JJJJJJJJ
JJJJJJJJ
.
22
1
arccos0
The projection of the norm of the
respective radius vector on the ideal vector
characterizes the tension between the pairs
of civilizations, which determines the
degree of the fault. The spatial position of
the vector characterizes the level of har-
monization (see Fig. 3).
Applying the method of matching the
set of group estimates of all pairs of civili-
zations on eight criteria to the integrated
total quantitative values, we obtain a com-
mon matrix of tension coefficients that de-
termine the faults between civilizations.
Fig. 3. Generalized measure of
tension between pairs of civilizations
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 12
Analysis of Interaction Regularities and Assessment of the Civilization
Propensity to Unite and Clash
The use of the proposed method encouraged us to calculate the conflict factors for
each of the thirteen civilizations:
)],([min ba civcivdconflictP .
The values of the conflict factors for each of the thirteen selected civiliza-
tional clusters are given in Table 2. These factors can be used as quantitative
characteristics of fault lines between civilizations.
T a b l e 2 . Conflict factors of civilizations
Civilization
code 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Conflict factor 0,56 0,40 0,41 0,46 0,48 0,46 0,42 0,47 0,53 0,42 0,40 0,46 0,39
It should be noted that the first assessment of conflict according to the de-
scribed methodology was carried out in 2008 [15, 16]. Comparing the results of
2008 and 2018, we see the increase in the integrated level of the global conflict
during this period (see Fig. 4).
The next step in the study consisted in calcu-
lation of the civilizations propensity to unite.
Upon determining the corresponding values as
inverse to the maximum tension levels (faults)
between the civilizations included in the corre-
sponding cluster, we get
)],([max1 ba civcivdunionP .
Potential conflicts can occur between civili-
zations, mostly, along fault lines with maximum
quantitative values. On the contrary, potential
clusters of civilizations can occur along fault lines
with minimum quantitative values.
Table 3 shows the level of propensity of individual civilizations to unite, which
was determined in 2008 and 2018. Comparative analysis of research outcomes
allows us to identify trends in the mood and nature of the relationship of civiliza-
tions during this period. The Table also presents the facts that confirm the identi-
fied trends according to modeling outcomes. The global propensity of civiliza-
tions to unite decreased. There is a significant decrease in the tendency to unite
between the Confucian and Japanese civilizations and between the civilizations of
the Muslim group; in both cases the decrease is about 21,0%. At the same time,
there is a growing tendency to unite between Western – European and Slavic –
Western – Catholic civilizations, and between African and all Muslim civiliza-
tions. Western – European and Slavic – Western – Catholic civilizations became
the first pair in terms of the achieved level of propensity to unite and the third in
terms of its growth rate for the period 2008–2018. African and Muslim civiliza-
tions showed the maximum increase in propensity to unite – by 9,0%.
Fig 4. Visualization of the level
of growth of the global integral
conflict for the period 2008–2018
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 13
T a b l e 3 . The level of propensity of civilizations to unite
Propensity,
% No
Civiliza-
tional
clusters 2008 2018
∆,
%
Facts that confirm the identified trend
1
Western –
European &
Slavic –
Western –
Catholic
82,0 84,0
+
2,
0
Countries association through successive EU integration processes;
increasing prospects for attracting new member states (Albania,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro,
Serbia); new treaties on free economic zones; intensification
of EU partnerships with associate members (+)
2
Western –
North
American &
Western –
European
97,0 81,0
–1
6,
0
Participation of the USA, Canada and EU countries in the UN,
OSCE; the USA and EU countries in NATO, EBRD, Transat-
lantic Trade and Investment Partnership, Anglo-Saxon Military
Alliance of Australia, UK and USA (AUKUS) (+). Differences
in national security issues (in the National Security Strategy of
the United States of America, the EU is defined not as a politi-
cal force, but as a trading partner); competition in the world market
(–)
3
Muslim –
Malayan &
Hindu
76,0 75,0
–1
,0
Association within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation,
Asia Cooperation Dialogue (+)
Competitive wars in the world market (–)
4
Confucian &
Hindu 73,0 74,0
+
1,
0 Association within the South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation, Association of South East Asian Nations (+)
5
Muslim –
Malayan &
Confucian
66,0 71,0
+5
,0
Agreements between countries on the use of economically
important territories
(maintaining peace in the South China Sea) (+)
6
African &
Muslim –
Arabic,
Muslim –
Turkic
Islamic –
Malay
61,0 70,0
+
9,
0
Cooperation within the African Union, participation in pro-
Islamic organizations: Organization of Islamic Cooperation
(27 of the 54 sovereign African states are its members, and 1
country is an observer), Arab League, Maghreb and D-8 Or-
ganization for Economic Cooperation (–) “Re-Islamization”
of Africa (+)
7
Confucian
&
Japanese
86,0 65,0
–2
1,
0
Economic partnership (+)
Historical conflicts between China and Japan, escalation of the
conflict around the division of territories, including the islands
of the Senkaku archipelago, which caused the military aggression
(–)
8
Muslim –
Arabic &
Muslim –
Turkic &
Muslim –
Malayan
88,0 65,0
–2
1,
0
Association within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (+).
Competition for the extraction of resources
in the Caspian region (Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan),
disputes over the borders of the countries-descendants of the
USSR (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan) (–)
Instead, the global propensity of civilizational clusters to confront increased.
Among all conflicting civilizations, there is the same tendency of significant in-
crease in propensity to confrontation – at the level of 8,0% to 21,0% (see Ta-
ble 4). The maximum increase in confrontation is observed on the border of
Western – North American and Slavic – Eastern – Orthodox civilizations: the
fault between them is the biggest, both in terms of growth for the period 2008–2018,
and the value reached – in ten years it increased by 21,0 % and reached 72,0%.
In all cases, the average propensity of civilizations to unite decreased by
5,3% in 2008–2018. While the average level of propensity of civilizations to confron-
tation increased by 13,2%. That is, integrally, a decrease in the propensity of civi-
lizations to unite is observed over the last ten years, while their propensity to con-
front is growing rapidly.
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 14
T a b l e 4 . The level of civilization propensity to confrontation
Propensity,
% No.
Civilizational
clusters
2008 2018
∆,
%
Facts that confirm the identified trend
1
Western – North
American
& Hindu
51,0 72,0 +21,0
Operation Ocean Shield against Somali pirates
(USA, India, Indonesia, Somalia);
border conflict for the Aksai-Chin region
(India and China); Roginja refugee crisis
(Myanmar and Bangladesh); conflict over
Jammu and Kashmir (India) (–)
2
Western – North
American &
Muslim –
Arabic,
Muslim –
Turkic,
Muslim –
Malayan
58,0 66,0 +8,0
The Arab Spring, the intensification of operations
by the US-led international coalition of forces
in Libya and Iraq, the conflict in Syria; the civil war in
Yemen; NATO's International Security Assistance Force
operation against ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan;
rivalry between the U.S.A., Saudi Arabia, and Iran
over oil supplies; Israeli-Palestinian conflict; conflicts
in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kurdistan (–)
3
Slavic –
Eastern –
Orthodox
&Hindu
47,0 61,0 +14,0
The Indo-Pakistani conflict with Russia's bilateral position,
which is a strategic partner of India, but conducts “Friendship –
2018” military exercises with Pakistan; operation Ocean Shield
against Somali pirates of (USA, NATO, Russia, Ukraine) (–)
4
Western – North
American &
Confucian, `
Japanese
46,0 59,0 +13,0
The Cold War between the United States and North Korea;
territorial disputes between China and Japan concerning the
islands of the Senkaku archipelago; the conflict between
China and Taiwan with the prospect of the U.S.A. and Japan
involvement; nuclear and missile tests in North Korea (–)
5
Slavic – Eastern
– Orthodox &
Muslim – Arabic,
Muslim – Turkic,
Muslim –
Malayan
48,0 58,0 +10,0
Confrontation in Nagorny Karabakh; Turkish-Kurdish
conflict;
Georgia's conflict with South Ossetia; annexation
of Crimea; anti-terrorist operation
of Ukraine in Donbass with the participation
of Russia (–)
EVOLUTIONARY TRENDS AND DEFINITIVE CHARACTERISTICS
OF GLOBAL CONFLICT
The analysis of statistical data on the number of military and paramilitary con-
flicts occurring at the national and international levels shows the growing trend of
global conflict (see Fig. 5), which is found in the basis of modeling outcomes.
The total number of conflicts in 2017–2021 grew monotonously. In 2008 there
was a relative decline, however, in the following years the growth rate was multi-
ples higher. Nowadays, humanity is gradually entering the second evolutionary
phase of the last seventh wave of global systemic world conflicts [15].
On the one hand, the regularity of rapid growth of tension and conflict in the
world is caused by a change in the nature of ethnocultural interaction of civiliza-
tional clusters, as it is formally defined above. On the other hand, it can be con-
sidered as a confirmation of the historical theory of solar activity cycles. More-
over, the described approaches are interrelated, they substantiate and confirm the
correctness of specific regularities.
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 15
The theory of cycles of solar activity was formulated by the outstanding So-
viet biophysicist A. Chizhevsky. The scientist argues that the life of the biosphere
and social rhythms depend on the solar rhythms. According to his research, solar
activity contributes to the accumulation of enormous “collective”, “mental” and
“social” energy on the planet, and later it results in its release in the form of ag-
gression and conflict [16]. The best known and most examined cycles of solar
activity are cycles lasting about eleven years, caused by changes in the magnetic
field of the star. The Sun rotation differs from the rotation of solid bodies: its dif-
ferent regions have different speeds, which determines the magnitude of the field.
Each cycle is characterized by a change in the polarity of the magnetic field It was
in 2008 that the 24th eleven-year cycle of solar activity began; its peak falls on the
period 2012–2015, i.e., it coincides with the peak of escalation of military and
paramilitary conflicts in the world during this period (see Fig. 6).
Fig. 6. The solar cycle 24
SAW , which corresponds to the evolutionary phase of generation
of the last seventh wave of global systemic world conflicts
According to A. Chizhevsky’s theory of solar cycles, today the world is on
the verge of a systemic crisis caused by a surge of “collective”, “mental” and “so-
cial” energies, which causes the escalation of conflict. The determining factors of
such conflict are ideological, not material ones [16]. S. Huntington [1; 2] and his
followers [4–7] noted that the same specific features which are inherent in con-
flicts that take place along the fault lines between civilizations. We came to similar
Number if conflict
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Baseline
Years
Fig. 5. Number of conflicts in the world at the national and international levels [15]
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 16
conclusions on the basis of the results of modeling and comprehensive analysis of the
ethnocultural distribution of civilization. Experts-practitioners also emphasize chang-
es in the global nature of conflicts. These changes are evidenced by statistics and the
results of large-scale international observations [17–19]. The study allows us to sys-
tematize the characteristic features of conflicts:
a) conflicts are hybrid in nature, they cover all levels and spheres of societal
life, and are conducted using various, often non-standard, means;
b) conflicts are practically limited neither in time nor in space;
c) a large number of participants are involved in conflicts;
d) conflicts more frequently arise on ethnic, religious, cultural or gender
grounds;
e) conflicts occur between separate groups within one state not less often,
than between the states;
f) a large number of conflicts arise around the formed zones of instability,
which mainly appear along the fault lines between civilizations;
g) the growing number of conflicts is outpacing the world’s ability to stop
them and fight against their consequences;
h) modern conflicts are accompanied by fewer human losses;
i) arms proliferation fuels conflicts and organized crime;
j) conflicts caused by faults between civilizations, on the one hand, deplete
the participating countries and worsen their socio-economic situation, and on the
other hand, they exacerbate meanwhile such conditions deteriorate.
The validity of the first seven characteristics (a)–(g) is verified and con-
firmed by the results of the theoretical analysis, and model analysis. The struc-
tural analysis of statistics on the number of deaths caused by organized violence
in the period 1995–2020 was used to verify the declining trend in the number of
human losses caused by conflicts (h) (Fig. 7–9) [20, 21].
Fig. 7 shows that in the period 1995–2010, a relatively small number of con-
flicts was accompanied by a relatively large number of human losses (correlation
coefficient is 0,059). In the period 2010–2015, the dynamics of the number of
conflicts fully corresponds to the dynamics of number of victims (correlation co-
efficient is 0,949). In the period 2015–2020, the correlation was inverse, the rapidly
increasing number of conflicts was accompanied by a decrease in the number of
victims (correlation coefficient is 0,785). Such dynamics indicate a change in the
nature of conflicts and the reasons that cause them. Moreover, in our opinion, it is
partly caused by the use of high-tech weapons in paramilitary conflicts, which
15000
10000
50000
N
um
be
r
of
d
ea
th
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
200
250
N
um
be
r
of
c
on
fl
ic
ts
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
Fig. 7. Number of conflicts in the world and deaths caused by them in the period
1995–2020, aggregated by year
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 17
reduces the total number of human losses. In general, these trends clearly demon-
strate and confirm the growing level of conflict at the global level, which is ac-
companied by a relative decrease in mortality due to its civilizational nature.
United States and then NATO in Libya, have provoked a new round of in-
stability, which has resulted in the intensification of numerous terrorist and crimi-
nal groups.
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Western – Europian
N
um
be
r
of
d
ea
th
s
Confucian
600
400
200
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Slavic – Central-Eastern orthodox
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1996 1998 2000
Year
Slavic – Eastern orthodox
6000
4000
2000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
15000
10000
5000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
Latin American
N
um
be
r
of
d
ea
th
s
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Muslim – Turkic
6000
4000
2000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
African
900
600
300
N
um
be
r
of
d
ea
th
s
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Muslim – Arabic
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
Hindu
N
um
be
r
of
d
ea
th
s
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
Western – North Averican
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
1500
1000
500
0
Muslim Malauan
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
Fig. 8. Number of deaths, caused by conflicts in the territory of specific civilizations in
the period 1995–2020, aggregated by year
6000
4000
2000
0
N
um
be
r
of
d
ea
th
1990 2020 2010 2020
Years
750
500
250
0
N
um
be
r
of
d
ea
th
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
Fig. 9. Annual number of deaths caused by conflicts between Muslim – Arabic and
Hindu civilizations and Muslim – Arabic and African civilizations
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 18
Since 2014, there has been an increase in the number of conflicts in Asia and
Eastern Europe. The war was the bloodiest in Afghanistan, where the number of
victims has quadrupled in ten years since 2008, from 5 thousand to 25 thousand.
The conflict in Syria was the bloodiest in the Middle East. It is estimated that
more than 570 thousand people died in this country during the war. The conflict
in Iraq is in the second place in terms of the number of victims. The operation by
the international coalition led by the United States, with codename “Iraqi Free-
dom”, provoked a wave of conflicts between religious groups and terrorist clans
and plunged the country into the state of the permanent war. The global trend of
decrease in number of victims was not observed in these regions due to easy ac-
cess to, and proliferation of weapons.
The armed conflict in eastern Ukraine (Donbass region), which began in
2014 and continues to this day, has become bloody. According to the Office of
the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, this conflict claimed 13,2 to 13,4
thousand people as of June 30, 2021. According to the UN Office for the Coordi-
nation of Humanitarian Affairs, during the seven years of the war in Donbass
more than 3,5 thousand civilians were killed, up to 10,0 thousand people were
injured; 1,5 million people became internally displaced; 3,5 million people need
help.
ASSESSMENT OF THE WEAPONS PROLIFERATION THREAT EFFECT ON
THE CONFLICT INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
A study by the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Develop-
ment [22] quantified the effect of the complex of global threats on the conflict
intensity in the world in the first half of the 21st century. It was found that despite
the changing nature of conflicts, the weapons proliferation always fuels them, in-
vites organized crime and terrorism. The examples of human losses in various
world conflicts given in Section 2 confirm this conclusion.
Let’s analyze the relationship between the conflict intensity of civilizations
and the level of weapons proliferation in their territories during 2007–2019. Let’s
use the comprehensive Non-proliferation Index, which aggregates four compo-
nents that characterize the levels of development of science, state, armaments and
militarization of a certain country. Each of these components is evaluated using
an individual sub-index, which is an indicator of the relevant sphere.
The methodology for calculating the Non-Proliferation Index and its sub-
indices is presented in Table 5. The Non-Proliferation Index for ten countries
with its highest values and ten countries with its lowest values is given in Table 6.
Visually, the Non-Proliferation Index for countries and civilizations in 2019 is
shown in Fig. 10.
From these data, we see that the emerging economies and African countries
belonging to civilizational clusters that experience an increase in armed conflicts
and increased mortality caused by them, have low values of the Non-Proliferation
Index and, respectively, the high level of military conflicts threat. Thus, Mali,
Mozambique, India, Uganda, Russian Federation, Central African Republic, Cote
d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana and Ethiopia are the countries of proliferation concern.
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 19
T a b l e 5 . Components of the Non-Proliferation Index and methods of their
calculation
Su
bi
nd
ex
es
C
om
p
on
en
ts
of
s
ub
in
de
xe
s
Indicators
for calculation
Formulas for calculating
subindexes
Share of military expenses in the
GDP (ІME) [23. 24]
Total capacity of nuclear weapons
in the country (ІNW) [25, 26, 27]
Share of electricity production
from nuclear sources in total
production (ІEP) [23]
Global uranium production (ІGU) [28]
Weapons exports (ІWE) [23]
W
ea
po
ni
za
tio
n
in
de
x
(І
W
)
—
Weapons imports (ІWI) [23]
WI
6
WIWEGUEPNWME IIIIII
Export of high-tech goods
(ІHTE) [23]
In
no
va
ti
ve
co
m
po
ne
nt
(І
E
)
Number of patent applications
submitted by residents (ІPR) [23]
Share of government expenses on higher
education in GDP per capita (ІSEE) [23]
E
du
ca
ti
on
al
co
m
po
ne
nt
(I
E
Government expenses on education
(ІGEE) [29]
Share of research and development
expenses in the GDP (ІRDE) [23]
R
es
ea
rc
h
in
de
x
(І
R
)
S
ci
en
ti
fi
c
co
m
po
ne
nt
I S
Number of scientists and researchers
(per mill ISR) [23]
,
3R
SEІ ІІІ
І
2
де GEESEE
І
ІІ
І
,
2
ДВОBBO
E
ІІ
І
,
2
NSRRDE
S
ІІ
І
Transparency of public policy,
corruption (ІPC) [23]
Energy consumption (ІЕC) [23]
External debt (ІED ) [23]
Gross Domestic Product (ІGDP) [23]
Gross National Income (ІGNI) [23]
Industry value added (ІIV) [23]
Inflation rate (ІІR) [23] St
at
e
D
ev
el
op
m
en
t
In
de
x
(І
SD
)
—
Life expectancy at birth (ІLE) [23]
SDІ
8
ІEC LEIRIVGNIGDPEDPC ІІІІІІІ
Participation in international
organizations and treaties (ІIOP)
Conflict barometer for the country
(ІCBC) [18]
Conflict barometer for the country
and neighbors (ІCBN) [18]
Level of terrorism (ІTL) [30]
In
de
x
of
th
e
co
un
tr
y
m
il
ita
ri
za
ti
on
(
І C
M
)
—
Armed forces (ІAF) [23]
5
AFTLCNBCBCIOP
CM
ІІІІІ
І
Japan, the Republic of Korea, the USA, Germany, China, Israel, Austria,
Sweden, Canada and the Netherlands have the lowest proliferation rates. In gen-
eral, democratic advanced economies with high levels of economic, scientific and
technological development have a low level of proliferation threat. Between 2007
and 2019, the world average percentage change in the value of the Non-
Proliferation Index was 5,7 points, indicating that humanity is aware of the dan-
gers of this threat and encourages disarmament.
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 20
T a b l e 6 . Top 10 countries with the highest and lowest values of the Non-
Proliferation Index (ranking by indicators of 2019)
Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mali 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,09
Mozambique 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09
India 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09
Uganda 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09
Russian
Federation 0,09 0,09 0,08 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09
Central African
Republic 0,11 0,10 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,09 0,10
Cote d`Ivoire 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,11 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,10
Gambia 0,11 0,09 0,09 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,11 0,09 0,10
Ghana 0,09 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,10
Ethiopia 0,09 0,09 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,10
… … … … … … … … … … … … … …
Netherlands 0,16 0,16 0,15 0,15 0,17 0,16 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,15
Canada 0,15 0,17 0,16 0,17 0,16 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,18 0,17 0,16 0,15
Sweden 0,15 0,16 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16
Austria 0,14 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16
Israel 0,15 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16
China 0,17 0,18 0,18 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,16
Germany 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,22 0,21 0,22 0,22 0,22 0,22 0,22 0,22 0,19
United States
of America 0,21 0,21 0,20 0,20 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,22 0,20
Republic
of Korea 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,25 0,25 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,23
Japan 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,26 0,24
Disarmament and technological modernization of weapons, in its turn, con-
tributes to reducing conflict-related mortality. Poland (with 16,6% mortality),
Nigeria (16,7%), Malawi (16,9%), Kenya (18,8%), Serbia (20,6%), Zambia
Fig. 10. Visual representation of the Non-Proliferation Index in 2019
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 21
(20,8%), Algeria (20,9%), Saudi Arabia (24,3%) are the most successful countries.
At the same time, the group of countries: Angola (–14,5%), Central African
Republic (–12,4%), France (–12,1%), Montenegro (–12,1%), Singapore (–11,7%),
Mali (–11,4%), Germany (–10,9%), Rwanda (–10,6%), worsened the value of the
Non-Proliferation Index over the years, hence, the respective threat increased.
EFFECT OF PRONENESS TO CONFLICT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC
INDICATORS OF CONFLICTING CIVILIZATIONS
In order to study the impact of the conflict level on the socio-economic indicators
of conflicting civilizations, let’s determine the conditional distance between civiliza-
tions using the formula of Euclidean metrics in a multidimensional parametric space.
As parameters, we will take a set of the basic social and economic indicators
used by the World Bank for monitoring [23]:
agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (current USD) – 1P ;
industry (including construction), value added (current USD) – P2;
gross domestic product, GDP (constant 2010 USD) – P3;
gross domestic product, GDP (constant 2010 USD) – P3;
foreign direct investment (current USD) – P4;
total reserves (includes gold, current USD) – P5;
exports of goods and services (current USD) – P6;
imports of goods and services (current USD) – P7;
market capitalization of listed domestic companies (current USD) – P8;
hospital beds (units per 1 000 people) – P9;
the infant mortality rate (units per 1 000 people) – P10;
total life expectancy at birth (years) – 11P ;
mortality rate, neonatal (cases per 1 000 people) – 12P ;
government expenditure on education (% GDP) – 13P ;
literacy rate, adult total (% of people) – 14P ;
school enrollment, primary (% gross) – 15P ;
mobile cellular (subscriptions per 100 people) – 16P .
We aggregate the indicators 161 PP for each of the thirteen civilizations for
each year according to the following logic:
indicators `81 PP are aggregated as the sum of the values of individual
indicators of countries belonging to a particular civilization, which is reduced per
person;
indicators 169 PP are aggregated as the average value of individual indi-
cators of countries belonging to a particular civilization.
All these indicators 161 PP were normalized according to the formula:
,
)(min)(max
)(min
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
, cyear
i
cyear
cyear
i
cyear
cyear
i
cyear
cyear
i
cyear
normi
PP
PP
P
here year is the number, c is the civilization number.
After normalization, the distances between thirteen civilizations were found
in pairs according to the Euclidean distance formula:
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 22
,)( 2,,
16
1
,
jyear
k
iyear
k
k
year
ji PPd
here year is the year number, ji, is the civilization number.
The distances obtained on the basis of indicators of 2019, are shown in
Table 7. We see that the Japanese civilization since 1995 has not been involved in
any armed conflict. It is maximally, equally distant from all other civilizations.
The non-existence of armed conflicts and related human victims within the
territory of this civilization for a long time allowed it to achieve and anchor one of
the highest levels of socio-economic development in the world.
T a b l e 7 . Conditional distances between civilizations in multidimensional
parametric space (as of 2019)
Civilizations
Ja
p
an
es
e
S
la
vi
c
–
W
es
t-
er
n
c
at
h
ol
ic
C
on
fu
ci
an
S
la
vi
c
–
C
en
-
tr
al
–
E
as
te
rn
or
th
od
ox
M
u
sl
im
–
M
al
ay
an
H
in
d
u
W
es
te
rn
–
N
or
th
A
m
er
ic
an
S
la
vi
c
–
E
as
te
rn
or
th
od
ox
L
at
in
A
m
er
ic
an
A
fr
ic
an
W
es
te
rn
–
E
u
ro
p
ea
n
M
u
sl
im
–
T
u
rk
ic
Muslim –
Arabic 1,88 1,21 0,82 0,99 0,60 0,52 1,57 0,73 0,71 0,96 1,86 0,71
Muslim–
Turkic 1,81 0,94 0,52 0,58 0,34 0,53 1,38 0,46 0,50 0,80 1,65
Western–
European 1,72 1,03 1,50 1,24 1,72 1,89 1,28 1,62 1,65 2,14
African 2,16 1,52 1,20 1,25 1,01 0,72 1,70 1,09 0,93
Latin American 1,81 1,03 0,72 0,76 0,55 0,63 1,35 0,60
Slavic–
Eastern orthodox 1,61 0,76 0,61 0,53 0,45 0,78 1,38
Western–
North American 1,64 1,31 1,38 1,30 1,47 1,61
Hindu– 1,97 1,28 0,73 0,97 0,53
Muslim –
Malayan 1,87 1,01 0,39 0,66
Slavic – Central –
Eastern orthodox 1,65 0,45 0,64
Confucian 1,79 0,92
Slavic–Western
catholic 1,49
`
It is also obvious that Muslim civilizations are close to each other and more
distant from Western-European and Western-North American. An interesting result is
the relatively small distance between the Hindu civilization and the Muslim countries.
For the purposes of our study, the analysis of distances between civilizations
in dynamics is indicative. Accordingly, their values were calculated using the
indicators of 1991–2019 (see Fig. 11). Upon analyzing the dynamics of distances
Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2021, № 4 23
between civilizations, we see that 46 pairs of civilizations increased the distance
between them by an average of 50.0% compared to 1991, and 28 pairs of
civilizations decreased it by 24,8%, while 4 pairs almost did not change the
distances. Among the latter there are African and Slavic – Western Catholic,
African and Hindu, Muslim – Arabic and Slavic – Central-Eastern Orthodox,
Slavic – Eastern Orthodox and Slavic – Western Catholic pairs.
Hence, we can conclude that the developed Eastern civilizations are getting
closer to each other over time, while the distance between the Western ones increases.
On average, the total distance between civilizations in the world is growing.
Fig. 12 shows the dynamics of the calcu-
lated total distance. Its increase for the
period 1991–2019 is 17,0%.
The lowest value of the total
distance was observed in 2002, then it
increased until reaching a local
maximum during the global economic
crisis of 2008. In general, since 2002
there has been a trend of increase in total
distance, and the absolute maximum was
reached in 2019 with a tendency to
further increase.
In general, there is a direct
relationship between the level of global
conflict in the world and the total
distance between world civilizations, determined by socio-economic indicators.
This fact confirms the conclusion that the conflict level and the socio-economic
condition of civilization clusters and the countries that form them are
interconnected and interdependent. In particular, conflicts caused by faults
between civilizations, on the one hand, deplete the participating countries and
worsen their socio-economic situation, and on the other hand, exacerbate as the
socio-economic situation deteriorates.
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
D
is
ta
nc
e
85
80
75
70
Fig. 12. Dynamics of total distance
between the world civilizations
Muslim – Turkic
and Muslim – Malayan
D
is
ta
nc
e
0,8
0,6
0,4
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
Slavic – Eastem orthodox
and Muslim –Malayan
12
10
8
6
Muslim – Arabic and
Muslim –
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
Western –European
and Japanese
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
D
is
ta
nc
e
1,75
1,50
1,25
1,00
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
0,6
0,4
0,2
1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
Slavic – Central-Eastem
orthodox and Slavic – Westrn
Latin American and
Muslim – Malayan
Fig. 11. Dynamics of changes in distances between civilizationson socio-economic
indicators basis
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 24
CONCLUSIONS
The concept of faults between civilizations is examined and formally verified in
the paper, which is considered as one of the important factors in the emergence
and course of actual world conflicts that have a civilizational nature and, as a re-
sult, change the vector of global development.
Based on the results of modeling the global ethnocultural civilizational
division, the concept of faults between S. Huntington’s civilizations is verified
and confirmed, the number of ethnocultural civilizations of the world is expanded,
the civilizational nature of modern world conflicts is proved and formally
determined.
Evolutionary trends and regularities of growth of the global conflict level are
systematized and identified. The regularity of the abrupt increase in the number of
conflicts is substantiated using several independent approaches:
based on the concept of civilizational faults;
based on the theory of solar activity cycles;
based on the results of modeling the global distribution of civilizations;
based on the results of the application of structural statistical analysis;
according to the results of econometric modeling.
The regularities defined in different ways generally coincide, and the de-
scribed approaches explain and substantiate each other, which collectively proves
the relevance of the formulated conclusions.
The conclusion is made about the gradual growth of cultural and socio-
economic differences between individual civilizations, which contributes to the
growth of the number of world armed conflicts. The described trends of growing
conflict pose new challenges and cause large-scale risks to humanity. In order to
meet new, more complex, hybrid threats, it is important to understand their nature
and take non-standard and decisive response measures, to improve cooperation
between states at international level, and between the state and society as well, at
national level.
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Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world
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Received 15.11.2021
INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE
Michael Z. Zgurovsky, ORCID: 0000-0001-5896-7466, National Technical University of
Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: zgurovsm@ hotmail.com.
Maryna O. Kravchenko, ORCID: 0000-0001-5405-0159, National Technical University
of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: marina.
kravchenko.kpi@gmail.com.
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, I. Pyshnograiev, M. Perestyuk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2021, № 4 26
Ivan O. Pyshnograiev, ORCID: 0000-0002-3346-8318, National Technical University of
Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: pyshnograiev@gmail.com.
Maria M. Perestyuk, ORCID: 0000-0001-9158-0706, National Technical University of
Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: maria@perestyuk.com.
МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВПЛИВУ МІЖЦИВІЛІЗАЦІЙНИХ РОЗЛОМІВ НА
ІНТЕНСИВНІСТЬ КОНФЛІКТІВ У СВІТІ / М.З. Згуровський, М.О. Кравченко,
І.О. Пишнограєв, М.М. Перестюк
Анотація. За допомогою математичного апарату багатофакторного регресій-
ного аналізу перевірено, формалізовано та доповнено концепцію розломів між
цивілізаціями. На основі методу нечітких кластерів уточнено етнокультурний
цивілізаційний розподіл країн. Розроблено математичну модель розломів між
цивілізаціями, яка надала можливість оцінити та проаналізувати кількісні по-
казники цих розломів. У роботі подано результати аналізу та порівняння даних
моделювання 2008 та 2018 років. Моделювання дозволило формально підтвер-
дити еволюційні закономірності, систематизувати та економетрично перевірити
змінення характеристик цивілізаційних розломів. Зокрема, виявлено тенденції
окремих цивілізацій до об'єднання та зіткнення, а також вплив цих розломів на
глобальну конфліктність. Наведено оцінку залежності глобальних конфліктів
від рівня поширення зброї. Визначено вплив конфліктів на соціально-
економічні показники цивілізацій, що конфліктують. Відповідність результатів
моделювання реальному стану міжцивілізаційних розломів перевірено порів-
нянням з фактичними історичними даними. Результати дослідження дозволи-
ли сформувати комплексне бачення природи сучасних конфліктів, виникнення
яких обумовлено розломами цивілізацій, а також визначити їх формальні ха-
рактеристики та закономірності.
Ключові слова: цивілізації, цивілізаційні розломи, конфлікти, глобальні за-
грози, поширення зброї, багатофакторний регресійний аналіз, метод нечітких
кластерів.
МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ МЕЖЦИВИЛИЗАЦИОННЫХ РАЗЛОМОВ НА
ИНТЕНСИВНОСТЬ КОНФЛИКТОВ В МИРЕ / М.З. Згуровский, М.О. Кравченко,
И.А. Пышнограев, М.Н. Перестюк
Аннотация. С помощью математического аппарата многофакторного регрес-
сионного анализа проверена, формализована и дополнена концепция разломов
между цивилизациями. На основе метода нечетких кластеров уточнено этно-
культурное цивилизационное распределение стран. Разработана математиче-
ская модель разломов между цивилизациями, которая дала возможность оце-
нить и проанализировать количественные показатели этих разломов. В работе
представлены результаты анализа и сравнения данных моделирования 2008 и
2018 годов. Моделирование позволило формально подтвердить эволюционные
закономерности, систематизировать и эконометрически проверить изменение
характеристик цивилизационных разломов. В частности, выявлены тенденции
отдельных цивилизаций к объединению и столкновению, а также влияние этих
разломов на глобальную конфликтность. Представлено оценку зависимости гло-
бальных конфликтов от уровня распространения оружия. Определено влияние
конфликтов на социально-экономические показатели конфликтующих цивилиза-
ций. Соответствие результатов моделирования реальному состоянию межци-
вилизационных разломов проверено путем сравнения с фактическими истори-
ческими данными. Результаты исследования позволили сформировать
комплексное видение природы современных конфликтов, возникновение ко-
торых обусловлено разломами цивилизаций, а также определить их формаль-
ные характеристики и закономерности.
Ключевые слова: цивилизации, цивилизационные разломы, конфликты, гло-
бальные угрозы, распространение оружия, многофакторный регрессионный
анализ, метод нечетких кластеров.
|
| id | journaliasakpiua-article-251997 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:42Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/5d/942a71e535da2add069e08ae8298d75d.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-2519972022-06-20T14:19:48Z Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world Моделирование влияния межцивилизационных разломов на интенсивность конфликтов в мире Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan Perestyuk, Maria цивілізації цивілізаційні розломи конфлікти глобальні загрози поширення зброї багатофакторний регресійний аналіз метод нечітких кластерів цивилизации цивилизационные разломы конфликты глобальные угрозы распространение оружия многофакторный регрессионный анализ метод нечетких кластеров civilizations clash of civilizations conflicts global threats proliferation of weapons multifactor regression analysis fuzzy cluster method Using the mathematical apparatus of the multifactor regression analysis, the concept of faults between civilizations is verified, formalized and refined. The ethnocultural civilizational distribution of the countries is specified on the basis of the fuzzy cluster method. The mathematical model of fault lines between civilizations is elaborated, which affords the opportunity to estimate and analyze the quantitative values of these faults. Formally, the developed model offers the way to determine evolutionary regularities, systematize and econometrically verify the defining characteristics of actual civilizational clashes. The results of an analysis and comparison of modeling data of intercivilizational faults in 2008 and 2018 revealed the tendencies of individual civilizations to unite and clash, and the effect of these faults on the global conflict as well. The dependence of global threats on the proliferation of weapons and their individual components is assessed. The conflict effect on the socio-economic indicators of clashing civilizations is determined. The correspondence of the modeling outcomes to the real state of intercivilizational faults is verified by comparison with actual historical data. The results of the study encourage to form a comprehensive vision of the nature of modern clashes, whose emergence is caused by the faults between civilizations, and to determine their formal characteristics and regularities of their course. С помощью математического аппарата многофакторного регрессионного анализа проверена, формализована и дополнена концепция разломов между цивилизациями. На основе метода нечетких кластеров уточнено этнокультурное цивилизационное распределение стран. Разработана математическая модель разломов между цивилизациями, которая дала возможность оценить и проанализировать количественные показатели этих разломов. В работе представлены результаты анализа и сравнения данных моделирования 2008 и 2018 годов. Моделирование позволило формально подтвердить эволюционные закономерности, систематизировать и эконометрически проверить изменение характеристик цивилизационных разломов. В частности, выявлены тенденции отдельных цивилизаций к объединению и столкновению, а также влияние этих разломов на глобальную конфликтность. Представлено оценку зависимости глобальных конфликтов от уровня распространения оружия. Определено влияние конфликтов на социально-экономические показатели конфликтующих цивилизаций. Соответствие результатов моделирования реальному состоянию межцивилизационных разломов проверено путем сравнения с фактическими историческими данными. Результаты исследования позволили сформировать комплексное видение природы современных конфликтов, возникновение которых обусловлено разломами цивилизаций, а также определить их формальные характеристики и закономерности. За допомогою математичного апарату багатофакторного регресійного аналізу перевірено, формалізовано та доповнено концепцію розломів між цивілізаціями. На основі методу нечітких кластерів уточнено етнокультурний цивілізаційний розподіл країн. Розроблено математичну модель розломів між цивілізаціями, яка надала можливість оцінити та проаналізувати кількісні показники цих розломів. У роботі подано результати аналізу та порівняння даних моделювання 2008 та 2018 років. Моделювання дозволило формально підтвердити еволюційні закономірності, систематизувати та економетрично перевірити змінення характеристик цивілізаційних розломів. Зокрема, виявлено тенденції окремих цивілізацій до об'єднання та зіткнення, а також вплив цих розломів на глобальну конфліктність. Наведено оцінку залежності глобальних конфліктів від рівня поширення зброї. Визначено вплив конфліктів на соціально-економічні показники цивілізацій, що конфліктують. Відповідність результатів моделювання реальному стану міжцивілізаційних розломів перевірено порівнянням з фактичними історичними даними. Результати дослідження дозволили сформувати комплексне бачення природи сучасних конфліктів, виникнення яких обумовлено розломами цивілізацій, а також визначити їх формальні характеристики та закономірності. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2021-12-22 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/251997 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2021.4.01 System research and information technologies; No. 4 (2021); 7-26 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 4 (2021); 7-26 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 4 (2021); 7-26 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/251997/249368 |
| spellingShingle | цивілізації цивілізаційні розломи конфлікти глобальні загрози поширення зброї багатофакторний регресійний аналіз метод нечітких кластерів Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan Perestyuk, Maria Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі |
| title | Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі |
| title_alt | Modeling of the intercivilization fault effect on the conflict intensity throughout the world Моделирование влияния межцивилизационных разломов на интенсивность конфликтов в мире |
| title_full | Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі |
| title_fullStr | Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі |
| title_full_unstemmed | Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі |
| title_short | Моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі |
| title_sort | моделювання впливу міжцивілізаційних розломів на інтенсивність конфліктів у світі |
| topic | цивілізації цивілізаційні розломи конфлікти глобальні загрози поширення зброї багатофакторний регресійний аналіз метод нечітких кластерів |
| topic_facet | цивілізації цивілізаційні розломи конфлікти глобальні загрози поширення зброї багатофакторний регресійний аналіз метод нечітких кластерів цивилизации цивилизационные разломы конфликты глобальные угрозы распространение оружия многофакторный регрессионный анализ метод нечетких кластеров civilizations clash of civilizations conflicts global threats proliferation of weapons multifactor regression analysis fuzzy cluster method |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/251997 |
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