Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання
The system approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies is proposed. Using the foresight methodology allows with the help of expert estimation procedures to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with qu...
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| author | Pankratova, Nataliya Pankratov, Vladimir |
| author_facet | Pankratova, Nataliya Pankratov, Vladimir |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "Nataliya Pankratova",
"institution": "Educational and Scientific Complex \"Institute for Applied System Analysis\" of the National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
},
{
"author": "Vladimir Pankratov",
"institution": "Educational and Scientific Complex \"Institute for Applied System Analysis\" of the National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
}
] |
| author_sort | Pankratova, Nataliya |
| baseUrl_str | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2022-06-21T10:27:50Z |
| description | The system approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies is proposed. Using the foresight methodology allows with the help of expert estimation procedures to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario the cognitive modelling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge and experience, understand and analyze the behaviour of a complex system for a strategic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The suggested system approach allows planning of underground objects on the basis of reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.1.01 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:50Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov, 2022
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 7
TIДC
ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ ТА ПРИКЛАДНІ ПРОБЛЕМИ
І МЕТОДИ СИСТЕМНОГО АНАЛІЗУ
UDC 303.732.4, 519.816
DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.1.01
SYSTEM APPROACH TO THE UNDERGROUND
CONSTRUCTION OBJECTS PLANNING BASED ON FORESIGHT
AND COGNITIVE MODELLING METHODOLOGIES1
N.D. PANKRATOVA, V.A. PANKRATOV
Abstract. The system approach to the underground construction objects planning
based on foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies is proposed. Using the
foresight methodology allows with the help of expert estimation procedures to iden-
tify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative charac-
teristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario the cognitive mod-
elling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge and
experience, understand and analyze the behaviour of a complex system for a strate-
gic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The
suggested system approach allows planning of underground objects on the basis of
reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority.
Keywords: foresight, cognitive, impulse modelling, planning, scenarios, under-
ground construction.
INTRODUCTION
The growth of megalopolises, their populations, expansion of infrastructure are of
the characteristic features of the modern world. Regulation of urban planning in
order to improve environmental standards and safety of life in constantly growing
megacities is one of the most pressing, but insufficiently studied and complex
world problems [1]. It is leads to the search of new places to production facilities,
social and other objects of human activity [2–4]. The space of megacities created
by man in the process of underground construction becomes a new, underground
habitat, which should be comfortable and safe for humans. Risks in underground
space development which is characterized by space-temporal variability are con-
sidered in [5–8].
Various directions of implementing system approach for planning urban sur-
face construction in megacities are known [9, 10]. Analyzing the trends of the
future development of the underground space of megacities are considered the
individual projects of underground urban studies that characterize the directions
1This material is based upon work supported in part by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine
under Grant 2020.01/0247
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 8
of urban underground construction in the near and medium perspective [11]. So,
In Chicago, the second largest economic center in the United States, it is planned
to build an underground city with a vertical layout, which will have 100 under-
ground floors. As for the underground development, the studies went no further
than general task setting and analysis of research methods [12].
Underground urban planning is a complex system in many aspects. Firstly,
this system consists of many interconnected subsystems and objects. Secondly,
the processes occurring in this system during construction and during operation
are also complex and in some cases poorly predictable, because they are largely
associated with various geological processes. The problems that accompany un-
derground urban development can be attributed to poorly structured problems.
A system approach to the planning of underground urban studies, based on
the methodology of foresight, as a tool for the concept of sustainable development
of megacities was proposed in [13].
The goal of the system approach presented in this paper is to study some
problems of the underground object's viability in extreme and emergency situations.
SYSTEM APPROACH TO THE UNDERGROUND CONSTRUCTION OBJECTS
PLANNING BASED ON FORESIGHT AND COGNITIVE MODELLING
METHODOLOGIES
In this paper the system approach to the underground construction objects plan-
ning based on the mathematical support of foresight methodology with the aim of
scenarios alternatives creating and cognitive modeling to build scenarios for the
development of the desired future and ways of their implementation is proposed.
For realization of this system approach the totality of the properties and character-
istics of the studied objects, as well as the features of the methods and procedures
used to create them taking into account. Based on a comparison of the characteris-
tics of the qualitative analysis methods, the requirements for their application, the
disadvantages and advantages of each of them, researchers of foresight problems
should choose the rational combination of methods, establish the correct sequence
for their use, account the totality of requirements for systems and the features of
the tasks to be solved.
The system approach in the form of a two-stage model based on a combina-
tion of foresight and cognitive modelling methodologies is developed and its
scheme presented in Fig. 1 [14]. The involvement of scanning methods, STEEP
analysis, brainstorming, SWOT analysis, TOPSIS (Technique for Order Prefer-
ence by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) method and VIKOR method at the initial
level of the first stage allows using expert assessment to identify critical tech-
nologies in economic, social, environmental, technical, technological, information
and other directions [15–18]. The basis of this level is the analysis subsystems,
which are connected by direct and feedback links to the monitoring system and
field tests. The quantitative data obtained after analysis and processing are the
initial ones for solving of foresight tasks. The construction of rational alternatives
of scenarios for the development of strategically important underground objects
are expedient to be performed on the basis of a collection of foresight activities.
For this goal, in the process of creating alternatives of scenarios it becomes nec-
essary to involve expert assessment methods, among which are the most com-
monly used methods of analytic hierarchy, Delphi methods and morphological
analysis [19–22].
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 9
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N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 10
In this paper to identify critical technologies the SWOT analysis method is
used. For the purpose of ranking the obtained critical technologies and identifying
the most topical ones, the TOPSIS method is applied [16,17]. The method
TOPSIS of multicriterial analysis (ranking) of alternatives in addition to estimat-
ing the distance from the considered alternative to the ideal solution allows to take
into account the distance to the worst solution. The trade-off in choosing the best
alternative is based on the fact that the chosen solution must be at the same time
as close to the ideal as possible and most remote from the worst solution. The ob-
tained rating makes it possible to take into account the weight characteristics of
critical technologies that are the vertices of the cognitive map when constructing a
cognitive model. According to the VIKOR method, a compromise solution to the
problem should be an alternative that is closest to the ideal solution. Moreover, to
assess the degree of the alternative proximity to the ideal solution, a multicriteria
measure is used [18]. As soon as the critical technologies are identified we cross
to the system approach second level, using the qualitative methods for creation
alternatives of socio-economic systems scenarios [21].
In some cases, when the output information for cognitive modeling is given
in statistical form as separate logical groups, the method of constructing an inte-
grated indicator data is proposed [23]. This enables all groups to aggregate in in-
tegrated indicator data used the proposed method of recovery of functional de-
pendences for discrete preset samples or carry out decomposition integrated
indicator to individual subject groups, followed by decomposition of the logical
sequence characteristics. That is the construction of cognitive maps reasonably
add or remove her vertex, vertex to break a sequence of interconnected nodes.
Formalization the method of constructing an integrated indicator data im-
plies the use of this sequence of procedures:
the selection of indicator which will characterize the specific area of one
of the directions of sustainable development (economic, environmental, social);
grouping by specific characteristics of the data sets, which influence the
dynamics, selected at the stage 1 of the indicator formation;
forming a database for a specific period on the basis of the discrete samples;
recovery of functional dependencies by the discrete samples;
analysis of the results based on the recovered dependence.
At the second stage of system approach for the construction of scenarios cor-
respond to selected alternatives, cognitive modelling is involved [24]. which
makes it possible to obtain a valid scenario for decision making. According to the
developed methodology of cognitive modeling for complex systems [24–27],
modeling is carried out in some steps. At the first step of the cognitive modelling,
using the results of foresight methodology, theoretical and practical data on un-
derground urban planning, the cognitive model as cognitive map is developed.
The cognitive map in the form of a sign oriented graph and a functional graph in
the form of a weighted sign digraph are created. At the second step of cognitive
modeling the investigation of the cognitive model properties, methods of analysis
of structural stability and resistance to disturbances, methods of analysis of model
connectivity (simplicial analysis), and graph theory methods are used. The proofs
of numerical stability of cognitive maps based on the representation of values and
perturbations at the vertices of the graph in matrix form are presented [14]. At the
third step of cognitive modeling, to determine the possible development of proc-
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 11
esses in a complex system and to create the scenario development, an impulse
process model (simulation of disturbance propagation on cognitive models) is
used, which allows to create the scenarios of development in the process of dy-
namics and to propose a scientifically based strategy for implementing the priority
scenario [28].
So, at the first step of cognitive modelling the cognitive models such as a
cognitive map – a sign oriented graph (1) and a functional graph in the form of a
weighted sign digraph is created [24–29]
EVG , ,
where G is a cognitive map in which V are concepts, a finite set of vertices of the
cognitive map }{;,...,2,1, iji eEkiVV is the set of arcs ije of the graph,
mji ,...,2,1 , , reflect the relationship between the vertices iV and
jV ; the influ-
ence of iV on
jV in the situation under study can be positive (+1) when an in-
crease (decrease) in one factor leads to an increase (decrease) in another, negative
(–1) when an increase (decrease) in one factor leads to a decrease (increase) in
another , or absent (0). The cognitive map G corresponds to the square matrix of
relations GA :
otherwise.,0
,with connectedis if,1
}{
ji
ijG
VV
aA
The ratio ija can take the value “+1” or “–1”. The relation between variables
(interaction of factors) is a quantitative or qualitative description of the effect of
changes in one variable on others at the corresponding vertices.
Vector Functional Graph
,),(,, EXFXG ,
where G is a cognitive map; X is the set of vertex parameters,, is the space of
vertex parameters; ),( EXF is the arc transformation functional.
At the second step of cognitive modeling, to study the properties of the cog-
nitive model, is used methods of structural stability and perturbation resistance
analysis [24–26], methods for analyzing model connectivity (simplicial analysis
[27, 28]), and graph theory methods [29]. The results of the analysis were com-
pared with the available information on underground construction.
At the third step of cognitive modeling, to determine the possible develop-
ment of processes in a complex system and develop development scenarios, is
using the impulse process model (modeling the propagation of disturbances in
cognitive models) [25, 29]:
)()(),,()()1(
1
:
nQnPexxfnxnx vi
k
Eeev
ijji
ijj
jiviv
, (1)
where )1(),( nxnx are the values of the indicator at the vertex iV at the simula-
tion steps at time t n and the next )(;1 nPnt j is the momentum that ex-
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 12
isted at the vertex
jV at the moment ;t n } ..., , ,{)( 21 kV qqqnQ
i
is the vector
of external pulses (disturbing or controlling actions) introduced to the vertices iV
at time moment n. It allows to consider of modeling process in dynamic.
MODELLING OF UNDERGROUND CONSTRACTION
In the framework of the foregoing, let us call the studied complex system “Natu-
ral-technical geosystem”.
The first step. Cognitive Model Development. Table 1 presents data on the
vertices (concepts) of the hierarchical cognitive model without reference to a spe-
cific territory, in a generalized form. The generalizing concepts (indicators, fac-
tors), independent of the specifics, which can be disclosed and taken into account
in the future when developing the lower levels of the hierarchical model, are us-
ing. Fig. 2 shows a hierarchical cognitive map GI : “Natural-technical geosys-
tem”. In Table 1 and Fig. 2, the vertices of the upper (first level) are denoted as
,iVI 16 ,15 ,13 ,11 ,5i .
T a b l e 1 . The vertices of the hierarchical cognitive map “Natural-technical
geosystem”
Code Vertex explanation Vertex assignment
11VI The viability of the underground urban development Indicative
13VI Disasters, extreme and emergency situations Perturbing
15VI Environmental risks Perturbing
16VI Economic risks Perturbing
5VI Genetic type and lithological composition of soils Basic
1V Mountain and hydrostatic pressure, seismic impact Basic
2V Surface Load Static Load Index Basic
3V The indicator of the static load of the surrounding
soil massif
Basic
4V Existing underground facilities Disturbing
6V Estimatedsoilresistance Basic
7V Aquifers and High Water Disturbing
8V ReliefTypeandMorphometry Basic
9V Engineering and geological processes Disturbing
10V Mining construction technologies Regulating
12V The level of comfort of work and rest during the
construction and operation of underground structures
Indicative
14V Construction, operational, managementrisks Disturbing
17V Staffqualifications Regulating
18V Industrial Safety Basic
19V Quality and construction time Regulating
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 13
The cognitive model is a simulation model that makes it possible not to con-
duct an experiment on a “living” system, but to simulate its behavior and possible
future development under the influence of various factors, generating new
knowledge about the system. This allows to justify management decisions in
a given situation.
The second step of modeling. Before using the cognitive model to de-
termine its possible behavior, the second step of modeling analyzes the various
properties of the model are fulfiled. In this case, the stability properties of the
model must be analyzed.
The results of the analysis of the model properties obtained using the CMLS
software system [30]. Figs 3 and 4 shows an example of determining the cycles of
the cognitive model GI .
The fig. 3 shows one of the positive feedback cycles, a sign of which is an
even number of negative arcs in it. Fig. 4 one of the negative cycles
Impulse sustainability. The cognitive model GI was not resistant to
perturbations according to the accepted criterion [24]: the maximum modulo M
root of the characteristic equation of the matrix of relations of the graph GI is
182,1 M (must be less than 1).
Structural stability. An analysis of the ratio of the number of stabilizing
cycles (35 negative feedbacks) and process accelerator cycles (33 positive feed-
backs) indicates the structural stability of such a system [24].
The given example of the analysis of the cycles of the cognitive model
showed the variety of cycles of cause and effect relationships that exist in com-
plex systems. There are 68 of them in the analyzed system. Without an appropri-
Fig. 2. Hierarchical cognitive map GI “Natural-technical geosystem”
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 14
ate theoretical analysis, there is a great risk of the human factor in making mana-
gerial decisions, because its consequences may not be obvious due to the
complexity of interactions in the system.
Analysis of system connectivity, simplicial analysis. Immersed in the study
of the structure of the cognitive model, it is desirable to conduct a simplicial
Fig. 3. Cognitive map cycles, one of the positive cycles is highlighted
Fig. 4. Cognitive map cycles, one of the negative cycles is highlighted
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 15
analysis of the properties of its connectivity. Such an analysis is carried out in
order to study and understand the topological properties of the model and, accord-
ingly, other connectivity faces of the complex system under study that are not de-
tected in the above algebraic analysis. According to R.H. Atkin and J. Casti, con-
nectedness is the essence of the concept of a large system [27, 28].
The connectivity properties of blocks (simplexes) characterize the “deep”
connections of the cognitive model, the connections of its simplexes, and not just
the vertices, as in the cognitive map. A simplex is formed by each vertex, which
is the reason that some other vertices interact with each other. Figs 5, 6 and 7
show the results of a simplicial analysis of the GI model. Figure 5 shows the
transformed matrix of relations of the graph GI with the dimensions of sim-
plexes iV
of rows ( )x and columns ( )y indicated in it in the decreasing order;
1k , k is the number of elements in the corresponding row / column, the
dimension of the simplex shows the number of edges connecting the vertices. In
Fig. 6, the simplices 10( )
3
V
( 3 means that three edges go out from each
vertex) of the simplex are highlighted for one vertex 10V . This vertex 10V is the
reason for the connection of the vertices 1V , 2V , 3V , 4V .Those, vertex Mining
Fig. 5. Results of simplicial analysis (calculation)
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 16
construction technologies ( 10V ) is the reason that vertices Mountain and hydro-
static pressure, seismic impact ( 1V ), Surface Load Static Load Index ( 2V ), The
indicator of the static load of the surrounding soil massif ( 3V ), Existing under-
ground facilities ( 4V ) forming one block are interconnected.
Thus, these vertices are the cause of the simplex in the form of a tetrahedron.
Note that simplexes of higher dimension are not depicted on the plane; only
their “projection” can be conditionally drawn – Fig. 7.
Fig. 6. Image of one of the simplices of dimension 3
Simplexes form q -connected chains 1q (connection through a vertex),
2q (connection through an edge), 3q (connection through a plane), etc.,
thus uniting into simplicial complexes xK (along the lines – “inputs”) and yK
(columns –“outputs”). Simplexes are q -connected or not in simplexes (they lack
or have connections of simplexes along vertices, edges, planes, m -dimensional
volumes). Simplicial complexes are characterized by the structural vectors xQ
and yQ formed by vertex groups common to different simplexes.
The third stage of modeling. Scenario analysis is designed to anticipate
possible trends in the development of situations on the model.To generate scenar-
ios of the development of the system, impacts are introduced into the vertices of
the cognitive map in the form of a set of impulses. The impulse process formula
has the form (1).
It is possible to introduce perturbations Q of different sizes (normalized) to
any of the vertices, as well as to their combination. In connection with a large
number of theoretically possible variants of introduced disturbances, it is neces-
sary to develop a plan for a computational experiment before excluding pulse
simulation, eliminating at least almost impossible variants.
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 17
Fig. 7. Image of the projection of one of the simplexes of dimension 6
Introducing disturbances to the vertices, the decision-maker is looking for
the answer to the question: “What will happen if ...?”
The CMLS software system [30] allows, in the process of pulse modeling
and analysis of the obtained results, to introduce control or disturbing influences
at any modeling step. This allows to change (correct) scenarios in model dynam-
ics, to determine the effects that bring the processes closer to the desired.
The results of pulse modeling in four scenarios are presented.
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 18
Scenario No. 1. Assume good technology is used in underground construc-
tion. To the vertex 10V , the control action is introduced 10 1q , the perturba-
tion vector }0,1,0{ 19101 qqqQ .
Fig. 8 shows graphs of pulsed processes. For the convenience of visual
analysis of the image, the graphs of pulsed processes in the vertices 10V , 13VI ,
15VI , 16VI , 11VI , 5VI are represented by two figures: Fig. 8,a from the
first to the sixth step of modeling and Fig. 8,b from the sixth to tenth step of
modelling. The image of pulsed processes at a larger number of simulation steps
is not necessary, because system behavior trends under these conditions are al-
ready evident.
Modeling scenario No. 1, it is advisable to analyze whether changes in
Mining construction technologies ( 10V ) can and in what way affect other vertices
of the cognitive model. As can be seen from the graphs in Fig. 8, positive changes
in 10V can contribute to positive trends in the development of vertices at the top
hierarchical level: up to the 5th and 6th steps of the modeling, the declining trends
of Disasters, extreme and emergency situations ( 13VI ), Environmental risks
( 15VI ), Economic risks ( 16VI ), Genetic type and lithological composition of
soils ( 5VI ), The viability of the underground urban development ( 11VI ) is
growing.
All this may indicate that a single positive change in one of the vertices of
the system model may not be enough to exclude the negative impact of risks and
other negative influences.
Fig. 8. Graphs of pulsed processes, from the first to the sixth step of modeling (a)
(scenario No. 1); from the first to the sixth step of modeling (b) (scenario No. 1)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Im
pu
ls
e
Mining construction technologies
Disasters,extreme and emergency
situations
Enviromental risks
Economic risks
The viability of the undergriound
urban development
Genetic type and Lithollogical
composition of soils
0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0
Steps
Mining constructiontechnologies
Disasters,extreme and emergency
situations
Enviromental risks
Economic risks
The viability of the undergriound
urban development
Genetic type and Lithollogical
composition of soils
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
-110
-120
-130
6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0
Steps
a b
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 19
Scenario No. 2. Suppose that the possibility of the simultaneous occurrence
of all risks is increasing in the system. Disturbing effects are appearing
1 ,1 ,1 161514 qqq , there is perturbation vector 141 ,..,0{ qqQ
}0 ,...,1 ,1 ,1 191615 qqq .
Pulse simulation results are presented in Fig. 9,a for vertices 14V , 15VI ,
16VI , 11I V , 13VI , V17, V18, V19 and Fig. 9,b for vertices 1019181712 ,,,, VVVVV .
The simulation results of the second scenario show an extremely unfavorable
option for the development of situations in the system. With increasing risks all
indicators of the system fall at both the first and second levels of the hierarchy.
This observation forces one to make a decision on the search for the necessary
counteraction to the situations that have arisen.
Consider the third scenario. Suppose improving Engineering and geological
processes ( 9V ), Mining construction technologies ( 10V ), Staff qualifications
( 17V ), Quality and construction time ( 19V ), but there are Disasters, extreme and
emergency situations ( 13VI ).
Scenario No. 3. Control actions ,1 ,1 ,1 17109 qqq ,119 q
113 q , the perturbation vector 131091 , ,1 ,1 ,,0{ qqqqQ
}1, ,1, ,1 1917 qq .
The results of pulse modeling are presented in Fig. 10,a for vertices 13VI ,
19109 ,, VVV , 15VI , 16VI , 1718, VV , 11VI and Fig. 10,b for vertices
191817 ,, VVV , 11VI , 1412 , VV , 13VI .
Fig. 9. Graphs of pulsed processes: 9,a and 9,b are scenarios No. 2
The level of comfort of work
and rest during the construction
and operation of underground str…
Staff qualifications
IIndustrial safety
Quality and construction time
Mining construction technologies
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0
Steps
Construction, operational, management risk
Environmental risks
Economic risks
The viability of the underground
urban development
Disasters, extreme and emergency
situations
Staff qualifications
Industrial Safety
Quality and construction time
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0
Steps
Im
pu
ls
e
0,0
-2,5
-5,0
-7,5
-10,0
-12,5
-15,0
-17,5
-20,0
-22,5
-25,0
-27,5
-30,0
-32,5
-35,0
-37,5
a b
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 20
An analysis of the results of impulse modeling according to scenario No. 3
shows that the introduction of control actions to the vertices of Engineering and
geological processes ( 9V ), Mining construction technologies ( 10V ), Staff qualifi-
cations ( 17V ), Quality and construction time ( 19V ), but there are Disasters, ex-
treme and emergency situations ( 13VI ) can counteract the negative impact of
possible disasters and extreme situations, reducing the impact of economic, envi-
ronmental and technological risks. Thus, scenario No. 3 can be considered favor-
able: industrial safety is increasing.
The simulation results in one more scenario No. 4 is presented. Assume that
Construction, operational, management risks can be reduced. In this case, the im-
pulse actions initiate 6 vertices of the model and the synergistic effect of their
joint action is investigated. The modeling of this scenario of the situations devel-
opment on the model is carried out in order to determine whether it is necessary
or not to strengthen the impact on the system to achieve good indicators.
Scenario No. 4. Control actions ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1 1917109 qqqq
1 13 q , 1 14 q , the perturbation vector 1091 ,1,,0{ qqqQ
}1,,1,,1,1,,1 19171413 qqqq .
The results of pulse modeling are presented in Fig. 11,a for vertices 13VI ,
191714109 ,,,, VVVVV , and Fig. 11,b for vertices 1816151412 ,,,, VVVVV , 11VI .
Fig. 10. Graphs of pulsed processes: 10,a and 10,b are scenarios No. 3
Disasters, extreme and emergency situations
Engineering and geological processes
Mining construction technologies
Quality and construction time
Environmental risks
Economic risks
Industrial Safety
Staff qualifications
The viability of the
underground urban
development
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0
Steps
Im
pu
ls
e
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0
Steps
Staff qualifications
Industrial safety
The viability of the underground
urban development
The level of comfort of work and rest
during the construction and
operation of underground
Construction, operational,
management risk
Disasters, extreme and
emergency situations
a b
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 21
Analysis of the simulation results of Scenario No. 4, which differs from sce-
nario No. 3 by the addition of an impulse 114 q , simulating the possibility of
reducing Construction, operational, management risks showed the following. The
combined positive impact of six factors on the system leads to the possibility of
the appearance of desirable trends in situations throughout the system. So, there
are tendencies of improvement (growth) of the underground urban development
viability, the level of comfort, work and rest during the construction and operation
of underground structures, Industrial Safety while reducing all types of risk and
reducing Disasters, extreme and emergency situations
Let us compare the simulation results of Scenarios No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 and
No. 4, using the capabilities of the CMLS software system. The results of pulse
modeling at the 10th step of modeling are selected and presented them in the form
of histograms in Fig. 12.
As can be seen from Fig. 12, scenario No. 4 can be considered the best of
those considered, although its results are not too different from the results of sce-
nario No. 3. If you set the task of minimizing the cost of resources for the particu-
lar scenario implementation, then perhaps scenario No. 3 will be the best, with
fewer control actions in the system.
A comparison of the results of scenarios No. 3 and No. 4 with the results of
scenario No. 1, in which the control action is applied to only one vertex, shows
that it is inferior to scenarios No. 3 and No. 4. So, for example, the pulse value at
the vertices of Industrial safety (V10) reaches 30, and according to scenario
No. 3, the pulse value at this vertex is 78, and according to scenario No. 4 pulse
value is 85. If we compare the simulation results of scenario No. 2 with the results
of other scenarios, it is obvious that without countering possible risks, the devel-
opment scenarios of the Natural-technical geosystem system will be extremely
pessimistic.
Engineering and geological processes
Disasters, extreme and emergency
situations
Staff qualifications
Mining construction technologies
Construction, operational,
management risk
Quality and construction time
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0
Steps
Im
pu
ls
e
The viability of the underground
urban development
The level of comfort of work and rest
during the construction and
operation of underground structure
Construction, operational,
management risk
Environmental risks
Economic risks
Industry Safety
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0
Steps
a b
Fig. 11. Graphs of pulsed processes: 11,a and 11,b are scenarios No. 4
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 1 22
Fig. 12. Histograms of pulse values at the 10th step of modeling according to scenario
No. 1(a), scenario No. 2(b), scenario No. 3(c), scenario No. 4(d)
d
10,0
Steps
The viability of the underground urban
development
The level of comfort of work and rest
during the construction and operation
of underground structure
Construction, operational, management risk
Environmental risks
Economic risks
Industry Safety
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
c
The viability of the underground urban
development
The level of comfort of work and rest
during the construction and operation
of underground structure
Construction, operational, management risk
Environmental risks
Economic risks
Industry Safety
10,0
Steps
Im
pu
ls
e
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
The viability of the underground urban
development
The level of comfort of work and rest during
the construction and operation
of underground structure
Construction, operational, management risk
Environmental risks
Economic risks
Industry Safety
10,0
Steps
Im
pu
ls
e
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
-110
The viability of the underground urban
development
The level of comfort of work and rest during
the construction and operation
of underground structure
Construction, operational, management risk
Environmental risks
Economic risks
Industry Safety
10,0
Steps
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
a b
System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 1 23
CONCLUSION
The modelling of scenarios for possible processes of the events development in
the analyzed complex system is carried out under the influence of various internal
and external disturbances and control impulse effects. The results of the con-
ducted cognitive modeling make it possible to judge that the cognitive models,
which systematize and structure various information about the underground con-
struction system, correspond to the real system and can be used to anticipate the
possible processes of situations in the system under the influence of various dis-
turbing and controlling factors. The developed author's software system CMLS
allows in the process of pulse modeling and analysis of the obtained results to
introduce control or exciting actions at any stage of modeling. This allows to
change (correct) scenarios in the dynamics of creating a model, to determine the
effects that bring the processes closer to the desired. The developed methodology
and tools made it possible to combine the assessment of the impacts and relation-
ships of geological factors, technogenic and structural-functional types for the
study of the underground objects construction.
The proposed system approach to the study of the of underground objects
development based on a synthesis of cognitive modeling and foresight methodolo-
gies can become the scientific and methodological basis for the development of
the “Construction Geotechnology” science and its practical application to study
the problems of underground construction in order to ensure the safety and quality
of human life. The developed system approach is applied to the study of under-
ground construction objects in order to select reasonable scenarios for their future
development.
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INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE
Nataliya D. Pankratova, ORCID: 0000-0002-6372-5813, Institute for Applied System
Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytech-
nic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: natalidmp@gmail.com
Vladimir A. Pankratov, ORCID: 0000-0002-8264-5835, Institute for Applied System
Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytech-
nic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: pankratov.volodya@gmail.com
СИСТЕМНИЙ ПІДХІД ДО ПЛАНУВАННЯ ОБ’ЄКТІВ ПІДЗЕМНОГО
БУДІВНИЦТВА ЗА МЕТОДОЛОГІЯМИ ПЕРЕДБАЧЕННЯ ТА КОГНІ-
ТИВНОГО МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ / Н.Д. Панкратова, В.A. Панкратов
Анотація. Запропоновано системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного
будівництва на основі методологій передбачення та когнітивного моделюван-
ня. Використання методології передбачення дає змогу за допомогою процедур
експертного оцінювання визначити критичні технології та побудувати альтер-
нативи сценаріїв із кількісними характеристиками. Для обгрунтованої реаліза-
ції конкретного сценарію використовується імпульсне когнітивне моделюван-
ня, що дозволяє будувати причинно-наслідкові зв’язки на основі знань і
досвіду, розуміти та аналізувати поведінку складної системи на стратегічну
перспективу з великою кількістю взаємозв’язків і взаємозалежностей. Запро-
понований системний підхід дозволяє планувати підземні об’єкти на основі
вибору обґрунтованих сценаріїв та обґрунтування пріоритетності їх створення.
Ключові слова: передбачення, імпульсне когнітивне моделювання, плануван-
ня, сценарії, підземне будівництво.
СИСТЕМНЫЙ ПОДХОД К ПЛАНИРОВАНИЮ ОБЪЕКТОВ ПОДЗЕМНОГО
СТРОИТЕЛЬСТВА НА ОСНОВЕ МЕТОДОЛОГИЙ ПРЕДВИДЕНИЯ И
КОГНИТИВНОГО МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ / Н.Д. Панкратова, В.А. Панкратов
Аннотация. Предложен системный подход к планированию объектов подзем-
ного строительства на основе методологий предвидения и когнитивного моде-
лирования. Использование методологии предвидения позволяет с помощью
процедур экспертного оценивания выявить критические технологии и постро-
ить альтернативы сценариев с количественными характеристиками. Для обос-
нованной реализации того или иного сценария используется импульсное ког-
нитивное моделирование, позволяющее построить причинно-следственные
связи на основе знаний и опыта, понять и проанализировать поведение слож-
ной системы на стратегическую перспективу с большим количеством взаимос-
вязей и взаимозависимостей. Предлагаемый системный подход позволяет пла-
нировать подземные объекты на основе выбора обоснованных сценариев и
обоснования приоритетности их создания.
Ключевые слова: предвидение, импульсное когнитивное моделирование,
планирование, сценарии, подземное строительство.
|
| id | journaliasakpiua-article-258994 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:50Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
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| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/2b/263090f9791a8851ed9b5b3e9db9c62b.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-2589942022-06-21T10:27:50Z System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight and cognitive modelling methodologies Системный подход к планированию объектов подземного строительства на основе методологий предвидения и когнитивного моделирования Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання Pankratova, Nataliya Pankratov, Vladimir передбачення імпульсне когнітивне моделювання планування сценарії підземне будівництво foresight cognitive impulse modelling planning scenarios underground construction предвидение импульсное когнитивное моделирование планирование сценарии подземное строительство The system approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies is proposed. Using the foresight methodology allows with the help of expert estimation procedures to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario the cognitive modelling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge and experience, understand and analyze the behaviour of a complex system for a strategic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The suggested system approach allows planning of underground objects on the basis of reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority. Предложен системный подход к планированию объектов подземного строительства на основе методологий предвидения и когнитивного моделирования. Использование методологии предвидения позволяет с помощью процедур экспертного оценивания выявить критические технологии и построить альтернативы сценариев с количественными характеристиками. Для обоснованной реализации того или иного сценария используется импульсное когнитивное моделирование, позволяющее построить причинно-следственные связи на основе знаний и опыта, понять и проанализировать поведение сложной системы на стратегическую перспективу с большим количеством взаимосвязей и взаимозависимостей. Предлагаемый системный подход позволяет планировать подземные объекты на основе выбора обоснованных сценариев и обоснования приоритетности их создания. Запропоновано системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва на основі методологій передбачення та когнітивного моделювання. Використання методології передбачення дає змогу за допомогою процедур експертного оцінювання визначити критичні технології та побудувати альтернативи сценаріїв із кількісними характеристиками. Для обгрунтованої реалізації конкретного сценарію використовується імпульсне когнітивне моделювання, що дозволяє будувати причинно-наслідкові зв’язки на основі знань і досвіду, розуміти та аналізувати поведінку складної системи на стратегічну перспективу з великою кількістю взаємозв’язків і взаємозалежностей. Запропонований системний підхід дозволяє планувати підземні об’єкти на основі вибору обґрунтованих сценаріїв та обґрунтування пріоритетності їх створення. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2022-04-25 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/258994 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.1.01 System research and information technologies; No. 1 (2022); 7-25 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 1 (2022); 7-25 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 1 (2022); 7-25 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/258994/255711 |
| spellingShingle | передбачення імпульсне когнітивне моделювання планування сценарії підземне будівництво Pankratova, Nataliya Pankratov, Vladimir Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання |
| title | Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання |
| title_alt | System approach to the underground construction objects planning based on foresight and cognitive modelling methodologies Системный подход к планированию объектов подземного строительства на основе методологий предвидения и когнитивного моделирования |
| title_full | Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання |
| title_fullStr | Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання |
| title_full_unstemmed | Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання |
| title_short | Системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання |
| title_sort | системний підхід до планування об’єктів підземного будівництва за методологіями передбачення та когнітивного моделювання |
| topic | передбачення імпульсне когнітивне моделювання планування сценарії підземне будівництво |
| topic_facet | передбачення імпульсне когнітивне моделювання планування сценарії підземне будівництво foresight cognitive impulse modelling planning scenarios underground construction предвидение импульсное когнитивное моделирование планирование сценарии подземное строительство |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/258994 |
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