Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи
The article presents an analysis of the problems of energy independence and energy supply of European countries, given the impact of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. This analysis is based on the Energy Freedom Index (Ief) developed by the authors, which aggregates sub-indices of en...
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| author | Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Boiarynova, Kateryna Ilyash, Olha Kopishynska, Kateryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan |
| author_facet | Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Boiarynova, Kateryna Ilyash, Olha Kopishynska, Kateryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan |
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| datestamp_date | 2022-10-17T22:12:39Z |
| description | The article presents an analysis of the problems of energy independence and energy supply of European countries, given the impact of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. This analysis is based on the Energy Freedom Index (Ief) developed by the authors, which aggregates sub-indices of energy potential, energy balance, and energy development. A rating of 142 countries of the world was formed according to the value of this index and the places of the EU countries and Ukraine in this rating were determined. Measures aimed at increasing the level of energy independence of European countries and Ukraine were analyzed. Diversification of supplies and accelerated transition to clean energy were proposed as the main measures. European countries have been clustered according to the level of economic and security losses due to the embargo on Russian energy resources. Four groups of countries have been identified in terms of their readiness to replace Russian energy resources and impose embargoes. The dynamics of the indicators of the energy freedom index and their dependence on Russian imports were analyzed, and measures to reduce this dependence were proposed. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.2.01 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:57Z |
| format | Article |
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M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, K. Boiarynova, O. Ilyash, K. Kopishynska, I. Pyshnograiev, 2022
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 7
TIДC
ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ ТА ПРИКЛАДНІ ПРОБЛЕМИ
І МЕТОДИ СИСТЕМНОГО АНАЛІЗУ
UDC: 338.001.36
DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.2.01
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA’S MILITARY
INVASION OF UKRAINE ON THE ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
M. ZGUROVSKY, M. KRAVCHENKO, K. BOIARYNOVA, O. ILYASH,
K. KOPISHYNSKA, I. PYSHNOGRAIEV
Abstract. The article presents an analysis of the problems of energy independence
and energy supply of European countries, given the impact of Russia’s full-scale
military invasion of Ukraine. This analysis is based on the Energy Freedom Index
(Ief) developed by the authors, which aggregates sub-indices of energy poten-
tial, energy balance, and energy development. A rating of 142 countries of the world
was formed according to the value of this index and the places of the EU countries
and Ukraine in this rating were determined. Measures aimed at increasing the level
of energy independence of European countries and Ukraine were analyzed. Diversi-
fication of supplies and accelerated transition to clean energy were proposed as the
main measures. European countries have been clustered according to the level of
economic and security losses due to the embargo on Russian energy resources. Four
groups of countries have been identified in terms of their readiness to replace Rus-
sian energy resources and impose embargoes. The dynamics of the indicators of the
energy freedom index and their dependence on Russian imports were analyzed, and
measures to reduce this dependence were proposed.
Keywords: energy independence, energy freedom index, full-scale Russian invasion
of Ukraine, reliance on Russian fossil fuels.
INTRODUCTION
The country’s energy independence is a fundamental component of its sover-
eignty. It determines the self-sufficiency of the state in terms of energy resources,
energy supply, and energy generation. In a narrower sense, energy independence de-
termines the independence of one country from the energy resources of another and
demonstrates the extent to which the economy relies on its imports to meet its
energy needs. The European Union imports 90% of its gas consumption. Until
recently, the share of the Russian Federation in these imports was 45% (Fig. 1).
This is about 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which 15 billion cubic
meters were supplied in liquefied form. Russia also accounted for about 25% of
oil and oil products imports and 45% of coal imports [1].
In 2021, the European Commission developed a program of gradual aban-
donment of Russian gas imports “Fit for 55”. It presented a set of legislative pro-
posals and initiatives to ensure that EU policies are in line with climate goals, but
was rather slow, with a deadline of 2050.
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, K. Boiarynova, O. Ilyash, K. Kopishynska, I. Pyshnograiev
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 8
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2024, exacer-
bated the problems in the energy market and necessitated an immediate review of
the energy independence of the EU. This article examines the prerequisites for
building such strategies and explores the possibilities of developing energy systems
in Europe, given the significant reduction in dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES:
PREREQUISITES AND PROSPECTS
Measures of the European Union to eliminate dependence
on Russian fossil fuels
This situation shows that the countries of the European Union have been imple-
menting the strategy of energy independence too slowly, probably because they
saw an economic advantage in the use of imported Russian fuel resources. For
each country, the ability to abandon Russian fossil fuels is determined by their
energy systems’ structure and state of development.
In the paper [2] we proposed a method of a quantitative assessment of the
state of energy systems of countries in the form of an integrated index Energy
Freedom Index (Ief), which summarizes the characteristics of these systems by
the following groups of indicators (subindices):
1. Subindex of energy potential (Iep) – determines the established potential
of the country in terms of access to fuel and energy resources, namely to reserves
of coal, natural gas and crude oil.
2. Subindex of energy balance (Ieb) – reflects the annual balance between
total production and consumption of electricity and heat in the country.
3. Subindex of energy development (Ied) – demonstrates the ability of the
country’s energy system to develop, increase energy efficiency and increase the
capacity of electricity generation facilities, including from renewable sources.
The integrated Energy Freedom Index is defined as the product of three
subindexes (Table 1):
IedIebIepIef .
Fig. 1. Structure of imports of major energy sources in the European Union (%), 2021 [1]:
a — natural gas; b — oil and oil products
ba
Analysis of the impact of Rrussia’s military invasion of Ukraine on the energy independence …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 9
T a b l e 1 . Characteristics of the components of the Energy Freedom Index (Ief)
Subindex Characteristic Calculation Condition and
meaning
1. Subindex
of energy
potential
(Iep)
Determines the
established
potential of the
country in terms
of access to fuel
and energy
resources:
coal, natural
gas and crude
oil reserves
The value of the total indicator of the overall
explored reserves of coal, natural gas and
crude oil, determined per capita.
To determine the total indicator and reconcile
the data, which differ both in units
of measurement and in the range of values
there was used a logistic normalization
of data according to the formula:
5,0)1()(
1
norm
b
xa
ij
ij
exC ,
here parameters а and b are calculated as the
mean and standard deviation of the sample of
countries under analysis
Larger subindex
values within the
range
[0,1; 1,5] –
greater potential.
Average value
is 1,0
2. Subindex
of energy
balance
(Ieb)
Reflects the
annual balance
between total
production and
consumption
of electricity
and heat in
the country
Ratio of annual production and annual energy
consumption (both indicators – in million
metric tons of oil equivalent). The volume of
energy production includes: production and
processing of coal, crude oil and leasing con-
densate, natural gas; electricity generation at
nuclear and hydroelectric power plants;
geothermal electricity generation; production
of solar thermal and photovoltaic electricity
and wind electricity; production of fuel from
wood and biomass waste
Subindex value
≥ 1,0 – positive
energy balance,
the ability to meet
the energy needs
of the country’s
own production.
Subindex value
<1,0 – negative
energy balance
3. Subindex
of energy
development
(Ied)
Demonstrates
the ability of
the country’s
energy system
to develop
with the possi-
bility of en-
ergy transition
Chain growth rate of the total installed capacity
of all electricity generation facilities in the
country. The total installed capacity of all
electricity generation facilities consists of:
power of fossil fuel electricity; hydraulic
accumulators; hydroelectric power plants;
nuclear electricity; geothermal electricity;
electricity from biomass and waste; total
electricity from renewable sources without
taking into account hydropower. The value of
the current year’s subindex is defined as
a percentage of the value of the indicator for
the previous year
The value
of the subindex
of the base
year 2000 = 1,0.
Subindex value
≥ 1,0 – positive
dynamics
of development.
Subindex value
< 1,0 – negative
dynamics
of the decline
Table 2 shows the values of the Energy Freedom Index and its components
for the EU and Ukraine (Ief values for 142 countries are given in [2]). The table
also contains data on the share of energy imports from Russia in the structure of
national consumption
In 2020, there have been significant changes in the EU economy and the
electricity market in particular. Electricity consumption and imports decreased
significantly, and fossil fuel use decreased accordingly. This was due to the slow-
down in economic development due to the coronavirus pandemic and favorable
weather conditions. The development of renewable generation (+80 TWh) and the
increase in net imports (+13 TWh), mainly from Norwegian hydropower plants,
also had a partial impact. In general, the carbon potential of the EU electricity in
2020 decreased by 14% compared to 2019 [3; 4].
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, K. Boiarynova, O. Ilyash, K. Kopishynska, I. Pyshnograiev
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 10
T a b l e 2 . Ranking of the EU and Ukraine by the value of the Energy Freedom
Index and the relationship between the index and the share of energy imports
from Russia in the structure of their national consumption [2; 3]
Index components 2020
P
la
ce
in
th
e
E
U
ra
n
k
in
g
20
20
C
ou
n
tr
y
Ie
f
2
01
9
Ie
f
2
02
0
S
u
b
in
de
x
of
e
ne
rg
y
p
ot
en
ti
al
S
u
b
in
de
x
of
e
ne
rg
y
b
al
an
ce
S
u
b
in
de
x
of
e
ne
rg
y
de
ve
lo
p-
m
en
t
S
h
ar
e
of
im
p
or
ts
f
ro
m
R
u
ss
ia
in
n
at
io
n
al
co
n
su
m
p
ti
on
C
or
re
la
ti
on
be
tw
ee
n
Ie
f
an
d
th
e
sh
ar
e
of
im
p
or
ts
fr
om
R
u
ss
ia
1 Ukraine 0,70 0,77 1,07 0,72 1,00 NA NA
2 Bulgaria 0,59 0,76 1,00 0,69 1,11 0,40 0,20
3 Poland 0,58 0,63 1,05 0,59 1,01 0,37 -0,85
4 Denmark 0,70 0,61 0,95 0,98 0,65 0,16 -0,65
5 Czech Republic 0,55 0,59 1,00 0,63 0,94 0,24 -0,43
6 Sweden 0,68 0,59 0,94 0,63 1,00 0,08 0,57
7 Latvia 0,18 0,56 0,94 0,64 0,93 0,31 -0,29
8 Slovenia 0,47 0,55 0,97 0,55 1,03 0,10 0,10
9 France 0,48 0,54 0,94 0,58 0,99 0,09 -0,10
10 Romania 0,72 0,54 0,95 0,72 0,78 0,18 -0,58
11 Finland 0,42 0,49 0,94 0,52 1,00 0,45 0,09
12 Croatia 0,36 0,43 0,95 0,45 1,00 0,09 -0,08
13 Hungary 0,35 0,42 0,99 0,40 1,05 0,54 -0,28
14 Slovakia 0,32 0,40 0,95 0,41 1,03 0,60 -0,28
15 Germany 0,33 0,37 1,01 0,37 0,98 0,28 -0,65
16 Austria 0,35 0,32 0,94 0,42 0,82 0,03 0,10
17 Netherlands 0,39 0,32 0,95 0,35 0,95 0,55 -0,58
18 Portugal 0,23 0,31 0,94 0,35 0,94 0,05 0,49
19 Ireland 0,31 0,28 0,94 0,26 1,14 0,53 0,94
20 Greece 0,25 0,28 0,99 0,32 0,90 0,03 0,30
21 Spain 0,26 0,28 0,95 0,28 1,04 0,08 -0,39
22 Belgium 0,22 0,26 0,94 0,26 1,06 0,29 0,25
23 Italy 0,21 0,24 0,94 0,25 1,00 0,25 0,53
24 Lithuania 0,10 0,13 0,94 0,13 1,10 0,98 0,13
25 Estonia 0,18 0,10 0,94 0,11 1,01 0,16 -0,79
26 Luxembourg 0,03 0,05 0,94 0,05 1,00 0,03 0,36
27 Cyprus 0,04 0,05 0,94 0,05 1,03 0,05 -0,41
28 Malta 0,01 0,01 0,94 0,01 1,00 0,17 0,03
The Energy Freedom Index of the leaders of the European rating last year
decreased – in Romania by 25%, in Denmark and Sweden – by 13%. Instead, for
countries that have reduced fossil fuel consumption in 2020 – France, Germany,
Belgium, Italy, and others – Ief has grown. The reduction in fossil fuel consump-
tion and demand has also led to lower prices for all types of primary energy re-
sources. Prices for coal, natural gas, and oil have been the lowest in twenty years,
falling to 2000 levels.
In 2021, the EU was hit by an energy crisis. On the one hand, the post-
pandemic economic recovery has increased natural gas consumption – in the EU
as a whole by 4% compared to 2020. In particular, Slovakia increased gas con-
sumption by 25%, Estonia – by 17%, Spain – by 13%, Italy – by 8%, France – by
3%, Germany – by 5% (Fig. 2, a). Only some countries have managed to reduce
natural gas consumption. In particular, the Netherlands reduced gas consumption
by 13%, Sweden – by 31%, Finland – by 23%, Lithuania – by 18% (Fig. 2, b).
Analysis of the impact of Rrussia’s military invasion of Ukraine on the energy independence …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 11
On the other hand, the EU’s own natural gas production decreased even
more – by 13% compared to 2020. Quarterly production became lower than in the
period 2015–2019 [6]. This showed that the reduction in domestic gas production
in the EU is a long-term trend (Fig. 3).
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine at the end of February 2022 sig-
nificantly affected the situation in the European energy market. Prices have risen
unprecedentedly and consumption has fallen (Fig. 4). According to forecast data,
Fig. 2. EU natural gas consumption, 2000–2021 [7]; a — EU countries that have increased
consumption by the beginning of 2021: 1 — Germany, 2 — Italy, 3 — France,
4 — Spain, 5 — Slovakia, 6 — Estonia; b — EU countries that have reduced consump-
tion by the beginning of 2021: 1 — Netherlands, 2 — Finland, 3 — Lithuania, 4 — Sweden
1
2
3
4
5 6 23 4
1
T
W
h
T
W
h
a b
Fig. 3. EU energy market indicators, 2015–2021 [6]: а — GDP change
year-on-year comparison (%); b — gas consumption in the fourth quarter
of 2021, year-on-year change; c — monthly gas production EU: 1 — 2015–2019:,
2 — 2020, 3 — 2021; d— monthly imports of natural gas from Russia by supply route:
1 — Ukraine transit, 2 — Nord Stream, 3 — Belarus transit, 4 — Turkish transit
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
■ Gas consumption ♦ Year on year in consumption a b
c
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
1
3
2
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1
85
75
65
55
45
35
25
15
5
0
1
3
2
4
d
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, K. Boiarynova, O. Ilyash, K. Kopishynska, I. Pyshnograiev
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 12
in 2022 the demand for natural gas is expected to decrease by about 6%, which
will correspond to the level of 2020 [8].
Energy prices, which began to rise in 2021, jumped sharply – as of March
2022 by an average of 40% compared to December 2021 (Fig. 5).
In early March 2022, the price of natural gas in Europe set a new high and
exceeded USD 3 800 per thousand cubic meters. As a result, the European Com-
mission has presented a preliminary plan to eliminate dependence on Russian fos-
sil fuels by 2030 REPowerEU [12].
Measures of the European Union to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels
The dynamics of the energy independence index of countries such as Hungary,
Germany, Slovakia, Ireland, Spain, etc., indicates the presence of energy poten-
tial, but their energy balance is low and energy development is slow. Lack of ac-
tivities to increase energy independence, post-pandemic economic recovery and
growing dependence on imported fuels have led to an energy crisis in these coun-
tries. Countries that had a high index, on the other hand, have greater opportuni-
ties to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels.
According to the plan, by the end of 2022 it is expected to reduce EU de-
mand for Russian gas by 100 billion cubic meters or two-thirds of the total. The
strategy provides the implementation of two main directions [12]:
bc
m
U
SD
/M
bt
u
2
1
a
b
Y
-
0
-y
c
ha
ng
e
in
b
cm
m
c
m
/d
2
1
c d
Fig. 4. EU energy market indicators, 2022 [8]: a — daily European month-ahead and
Asian spot LNG prices: 1 — TIF, 2 — Asian spot LNG; b — natural gas consumption
growth in the two latest issues of the Gas Market Report; c — daily natural gas demand:
1 — 2020/21, 2 — 2021/2022; d — natural gas balance, year-on-year change
Analysis of the impact of Rrussia’s military invasion of Ukraine on the energy independence …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 13
The first direction is to diversify supplies and attract more renewable gas
sources. In particular, it is planned to increase LNG imports (compensating for
60 billion cubic meters of gas), double sustainable biomethane production
(compensating for 18 billion cubic meters of gas), increase production and
imports of renewable hydrogen (20 million tons of hydrogen can compensate for
50 billion cubic meters of gas).
The second direction is to accelerate the transition to clean energy. In par-
ticular, it is planned to install photovoltaic panels on the roofs of residential build-
ings and enterprises, to double the speed of installing heat pumps. The commis-
sion also outlined measures to respond to rising energy prices in Europe and
replenish gas supplies next winter. By the end of this year, about 25% of electric-
ity can be generated by solar energy. In general, by the end of 2022 it is expected
to reduce EU demand for Russian gas by 100 billion cubic meters or two-thirds of
the total volume.
According to the REPowerEU plan, the European Commission has launched
technical support for 17 EU member states to phase out Russian fossil fuels. The
technical package of recommendations will allow states (Belgium, Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Hungary,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland) to identify and im-
plement political reforms and investments in such areas as diversifying energy
supplies, accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources and improving
energy efficiency [12].
A more detailed plan “A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Re-
liance on Russian Natural Gas” was presented in March 2022 by the International
U
SD
/M
W
H
U
SD
/B
A
R
R
E
L
U
SD
/T
a b
c
Fig. 5. Coal, natural gas, oil prices, 2000–2022 [9; 10; 11]: a — natural gas prices; b —
oil prices; c — сoal prices
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, K. Boiarynova, O. Ilyash, K. Kopishynska, I. Pyshnograiev
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 14
Energy Agency [13]. In order to ensure security and protect the EU from possible
changes in energy supply, the European Parliament has also adopted regulations
on measures to ensure security of gas supply (№2017/1938) and on conditions for
access to natural gas transmission networks (№715/2009) [14].
In support of Ukraine and opposition to Russian armed aggression, the lead-
ers of the European Union held an informal meeting in Versailles on March 10–
11, 2022. The Versailles Declaration was signed as a result of the meeting. It also
agreed to stop the import of Russian gas, oil and coal as soon as possible [15].
In general, the updated energy supply strategy of the EU countries envisaged
by the above-mentioned acts is based on two main directions: diversification of
supplies and accelerated transition to clean energy.
In the context of the second direction, the act of “green” taxonomy of the
European Union was adopted, which sets out a number of provisions for changing
the structure of energy supply. In particular, the most effective way to decarbon-
ize the economy is direct electrification of end use. 66% of European electricity
has already been decarbonized, of which 50% – due to nuclear energy [16]. In-
creasing the use of nuclear energy by EU countries is impossible. The planned
construction of 14 new nuclear reactors in Europe, in particular in France, is not
enough to prevent a gradual decline in the total installed capacity of existing reactors,
which are nearing the end of their technical life. The new reactors will keep the
share of nuclear energy in the structure of total energy production at 50% in
2035–2050.
Taking into account the climatic characteristics of the European region it is
also impossible to use renewable energy for a full maximum. However, as an ad-
ditional source, it is planned to increase the use of biomass, wind or solar energy
from 32% to 40% of final energy consumption by 2030.
Thus, the main direction of increasing the level of energy independence of
European countries from Russia is the diversification of gas supplies. With tech-
nical support from the EU, European countries are already taking steps to reduce
or stop gas and oil imports from Russia, but most of the measures are planned for
five years, as their rapid implementation is problematic. There are geographical
difficulties in transporting LNG. Given the different volumes of Russian gas con-
sumption and the different capacity of LNG infrastructure, countries have differ-
ent options for its replacement, as shown in (Fig. 6, 7).
Fig. 6. Annual capacity of liquefied natural gas terminals (billion cubic meters per year),
2022 [17]
Analysis of the impact of Rrussia’s military invasion of Ukraine on the energy independence …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 15
The Baltic states were the first countries in Europe to completely stop im-
porting Russian gas. From April 1, 2022, Russian natural gas will no longer flow
to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. By the end of 2022, the Netherlands plans to
abandon Russian oil, gas and coal.
The most difficult thing is to refuse to import Russian gas to its largest con-
sumers – Germany, Italy and France. However, France has said it is ready to sup-
port an embargo on Russian oil and gas imports. Other countries, including Ger-
many, are not ready to give up supplies from Russia. In case of a full embargo on
imports from Russia, Germany will be able to replace only 20% of gas consumed
by increasing coal combustion. At the same time, the German government has
assured that it will not allow the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to start operating.
Austria, which is 80% dependent on Russian natural gas, cannot abandon Russian
natural gas in the nearest future, but the country has completely abandoned Rus-
sian oil [19].
Europe’s efforts to gradually reduce gas imports from Russia are expanding
the geography of supply. Already this year, the EU plans to increase liquefied gas
supplies from the United States and Qatar by 50 billion cubic meters. The EU re-
lies on Caspian producers to supply natural gas, which can supply up to 10 billion
cubic meters for several months. This requires enhanced cooperation with Turkey,
which is becoming a central link in alternative supply routes from Azerbaijan,
Turkmenistan and Israel [20; 21]. Europe is focusing on the development of nu-
clear energy capacity, the generation of energy from renewable sources. New oil
suppliers are being sought.
As of the end of April 2022, the EU’s fifth package of sanctions has decided
to impose an embargo only on Russian coal, which will take effect only in Au-
gust. The European Union is currently developing the sixth package of sanctions
that could affect oil and gas exports. However, some countries, such as Hungary
and Slovakia, are unprepared for a total ban on Russian oil because it threatens
their energy security. They will be given the time until the end of 2023 to enforce
sanctions, one year more than other EU member states. In order to impose an oil
embargo, the consent of the world’s largest exporters is required. The UAE, Saudi
Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, and others should increase oil production by a total of 10
million barrels per day. At the moment, there is the consent of some countries, but
the full consent of all exporters is not yet. Therefore, the European Union admits
that it will not be able to agree on the positions of all countries on the oil embargo.
● Large LNG
terminal
— Gas pipeline
Terminal/FSRU
under
cconstraction
or expantion
Fig. 7. Prospects for increasing LNG imports to EU countries [18]
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, K. Boiarynova, O. Ilyash, K. Kopishynska, I. Pyshnograiev
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 16
Losses of European countries from the embargo on Russian energy resources
and measures to reduce them
Russia’s energy resources have become an important geopolitical factor. Accord-
ing to the Bruegel think tank, the EU pays 450 million and 400 million euros a
day for oil and natural gas imports, respectively. This amount is equivalent to the
estimated cost of 160 Caliber cruise missiles launched in Ukraine. In just two
months of war, the EU has paid Russia more than 40 billion euros for oil and gas.
This money has largely offset the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. The oil
and gas sector brings in up to half of its budget revenues and more than half of its
exports, and it sells 70% of its gas and 60% of its oil and petroleum products to
Europe. In 2021, revenues from oil and gas exports in the federal budget of Rus-
sia amounted to 38,1% of total revenues, and profits – 119 billion dollars [22].
In response to the imposition of sanctions by European countries, on March
31, 2022, the President of Russia signed a decree defining new rules for the sale
of natural gas to “unfriendly countries” from April 1. Countries-buyers should
open special accounts with Gazprombank. The bank will accept payments in for-
eign currency and will convert it into rubles. Most EU and G7 countries have re-
jected this requirement, but about 10 countries, including Hungary and Italy, have
already opened such accounts [23]. Due to the refusal to demand payment in ru-
bles, Russia has already cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland. These coun-
tries have stated their readiness to stop Russian gas supplies and receive gas
through alternative routes from Greece and Germany. But if a similar situation
occurs with other, more vulnerable countries, it will require a partial revision of
their energy strategy and structure.
All EU countries are taking active measures to replace Russian fuel with en-
ergy from other sources. However, as shown above, the level of their readiness
and the time of replacement are different and are determined by the level of de-
pendence, policies, and capabilities of countries. Different countries will have
different consequences of the embargo on Russian fossil fuels, measured by
losses in the country’s economy and security.
For further research, a pairwise correlation analysis was conducted to deter-
mine the relationship between the Energy Freedom Index, which is a generalized
measure of the country’s ability to embargo, and the share of Russian energy im-
ports in its total consumption, which is a measure of dependence on Russia (Fig. 8).
The correlation coefficient is interpreted as follows:
1. Positive coefficient:
the growth of the Energy Freedom Index is associated with the growth of
energy imports from Russia;
the decrease in the Energy Freedom Index is associated with a decrease in
energy imports from Russia.
2. Negative coefficient:
the growth of the Energy Freedom Index is associated with a decrease in
energy imports from Russia;
the decrease in the Energy Freedom Index is associated with the growth
of energy imports from Russia.
The density of the relationship between variables in the interval [0; ±0,1) –
absent, in the interval [±0,1; ±0,3) – low, in the interval [±0,3; ±0,5) – medium,
and in the interval [±05; ±1] – high.
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Based on the results of the analysis, it is possible to group countries on the
basis of the relationship between their energy freedom and the share of Russian
energy imports as:
countries with a high and medium density of the inverse relationship be-
tween their energy freedom and the share of imports of Russian energy (Poland,
Estonia, Germany, Denmark, Romania, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Cy-
prus and Spain);
countries with a low level of direct and inverse relationship between their
energy freedom and the share of imports of Russian energy (Latvia, Slovakia,
Hungary, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium, Lithuania);
countries for which the relationship between their energy freedom and the
share of imports of Russian energy has not been established (Croatia, France,
Malta, Finland);
countries with a high and medium density of direct relationship between
their energy freedom and the share of imports of Russian energy (Greece, Lux-
embourg, Portugal, Italy, Sweden and Ireland).
Among the established groups of countries, only the first can show that for
these countries, increasing dependence on energy imports from Russia may re-
duce the level of their energy independence and vice versa. The rest of the groups
have either a weak and no correlation between variables, or results that contradict
the hypothesis about the nature of the relationship between the energy freedom of
countries and energy imports from Russia.
Thus, the correlation analysis does not allow to clearly identify patterns of
dependence of countries on energy imports from Russia and to determine which
of them are willing to abandon such imports and take measures to reduce this de-
pendence.
Another approach to grouping countries takes into account the risk of refus-
ing to import energy resources. The grouping of countries in the two-dimensional
field of parameters – Energy Freedom Index (Ief) and the share of imports of Rus-
sian energy resources in the structure of total consumption (Іmrf) – provided an
opportunity to distribute countries according to the level of risk. According to the
results of grouping for 2020 data (Fig. 9):
Fig. 8. Correlation coefficient and density of the relationship between the Energy Free-
dom Index (Ief) and the share of imports of Russian energy resources in the structure of
their total consumption (Іmrf) for the UE countries
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in the high-risk zone (HR) were countries whose index is below average,
and which have more than half of Russian energy resources in the structure of
total consumption: Ief < 0,50; Imrf > 0,50 (Greece, Lithuania, Netherlands, Slo-
vakia, Hungary);
in the medium-risk zone (MR) were countries whose index is below aver-
age, but which have less than half of Russian energy resources in the structure of
total consumption: Ief < 0,50; Imrf < 0,50 (Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Ireland,
Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Germany, Portugal, Croatia);
in the low-risk zone (LR) were countries whose index is above average,
and which have less than half of Russian energy resources in the structure of total
consumption: Ief > 0,50; Imrf <0,50 (Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, Poland, Roma-
nia, Slovenia, France, Czech Republic, Sweden).
Both of the abovementioned approaches to grouping do not take into account
the measures taken by the countries to reduce dependence on energy imports from
Russia (which in this case oppose risky measures), so they cannot be used to
measure final risk and determine their readiness for the embargo. In addition, the
country’s readiness to implement the proposed EU embargo is largely determined by
its political interests. To this end, the countries were analyzed in the context of a
set of measures they took to eliminate Russian dependence and preparedness for
the embargo.
To date (since the countries are in the process of making final decisions),
four groups of countries can be identified (Table 3) according to the degree of
their readiness to replace Russian energy sources and impose an embargo:
Fig. 9. The grouping of countries in the two-dimensional field of parameters – Energy
Freedom Index (Ief) and the share of imports of Russian energy resources in the structure
of total consumption (Іmrf)
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Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 19
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Group 1 – countries for which the refusal to import fuel resources from
Russia threatens the greatest losses in the economy, and which need and may re-
ceive a delay in the imposition of embargoes (Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia
and Bulgaria);
Group 2 – countries that are heavily dependent on fuel imports from Rus-
sia, and at the beginning of the sixth package of sanctions have some controversy
over the imposition of the embargo (Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Romania,
France);
Group 3 – countries that have significant or moderate dependence on im-
ports of fuel imports from Russia, but support the embargo (Lithuania, Belgium,
Italy, Finland, Poland);
Group 4 – countries that have low dependence on fuel imports from Rus-
sia and support the embargo (Greece, Estonia, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Luxem-
bourg, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Denmark, Latvia).
Measures envisaged by the strategy of elimination of EU dependence taken
by certain countries (anti-risk measures) can be divided into four categories: di-
versification; use of clean energy; reduction of energy consumption; the increase
of own energy production and (or) construction of own LNG terminals.
Group 1 — Bulgaria (LR), Czech Republic (LR), Slovakia (HR), Hungary
(HR). This group of countries includes both high-risk and low-risk countries,
which have low or not very high dependence on Russian energy imports. As can
be seen from Table 3, all countries in this group have already increased their en-
ergy independence index in 2020 and reduced the share of Russian fuel imports.
The analysis showed that for the countries of this group, the primary measure to
reduce dependence is the diversification of fuel suppliers.
Bulgaria has the highest index and declining dynamics of imports from Rus-
sia, which is already taking measures to diversify — liquefied gas supplies from
the US at lower prices than from Russia, supplies from Azerbaijan, and in the
long run - LNG use through terminals in Greece and Turkey [24]. The Czech Re-
public, with fairly strong reserves of coal, oil and gas, is mainly focused on imports
from Russia. The lack of differentiation policy in the past determines the urgent
need for its implementation. In particular, the Czech company Mero acquired a
stake in Shell’s TAL oil pipeline [25]. In addition, the Czech Republic has a sig-
nificant level of biogas production potential. These countries are quite capable of
overcoming the risk that will arise as a result of the energy embargo from Russia.
Slovakia currently has a sufficient level of gas in its storage facilities to meet
its needs, but it is completely dependent on oil imports from Russia due to the
technological features of refineries. Hungary is heavily dependent on Russian
fuel, especially oil, and has a low level of supply diversification. Receiving Rus-
sian gas in transit through Bulgaria, under the threat of its suspension, the country
needs new sources of supply and changes in energy policy. However, for Hungary
and Slovakia, the search for alternatives to Russian imports is a long one, and
cannot be implemented quickly.
Group 2 — Netherlands (HR), Austria (MR), Germany (MR), Romania
(LR), France (KR). This group includes countries with high, medium and low risk
— those that at the beginning of the sixth package of EU sanctions had contro-
versy over the imposition of embargo. In the countries of this group there is an
inverse relationship between the increase in the level of Energy Freedom Index
and the share of fuel imports from Russia in domestic consumption.
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At the same time, the Energy Freedom Index in 2020 increased only in Ger-
many and France, while in other countries it decreased. In Austria, when the share
of fuel imports from Russia in domestic consumption decreased, the level of the
Energy Freedom Index also decreased. This shows that the country’s energy de-
pendence is moderate. Austria has long had Kazakhstan, Libya and Iran as key oil
suppliers, but high dependence on gas has caused the country to hesitate in decid-
ing on an embargo. Germany, which has a developed industry, needs much more
energy than it produces. The supply of fuel resources is limited by pipelines,
which complicates the diversification process. The country is considering the
supply of liquefied natural gas from Qatar, which will allow the gradual aban-
donment of Russian gas, for this purpose will be used terminals to receive gas
from tankers. The partnership agreed with Qatar includes not only LNG supplies,
but also the development of renewable energy sources, as well as energy effi-
ciency measures [26]. Romania’s measures are aimed at the development of for-
eign economic activity and gas production from the Black Sea shelf. However,
these projects are long. The Netherlands is currently unable to completely cut off
all fossil fuel supplies from Russia, but is refusing to transport it, and the country
is focused on import diversification. To this end, floating regasification plants
(LNG terminal) are being leased for future LNG gas uptake in Emshaven, Gron-
ingen [27]. France receives about 70% of its electricity from nuclear energy. The
country has abandoned its previous government’s policy of reducing the share of
nuclear generation, and this year announced plans to build six new reactors and
consider building eight more. This provides the country with a high level of en-
ergy security. Thus, the countries of this group have the opportunity to replace
imported fossil fuels from Russia, so an embargo is possible. The threat of loss of
energy independence that could occur in the event of further dependence on Rus-
sia can be eliminated (as shown in Table 3).
Group 3 — Lithuania (HR), Belgium (MR), Italy (MR), Finland (MR), Po-
land (LR). This group of countries includes high, medium and low risk countries -
those that have supported or expressed the readiness to impose an embargo. With
the exception of Lithuania, the countries of this group have a low level of depend-
ence on Russian fossil fuels. The defining feature of the countries of this group is
the growth of the Energy Freedom Index and the decline in the share of fuel im-
ports from Russia in domestic consumption, which indicates an intensification of
efforts in these areas. Poland is actively looking for opportunities to diversify
supplies and increase its own production. With an expanded LNG terminal, the
country is stepping up the commissioning of the Baltic Pipeline, which will pro-
vide it with gas connections with Lithuania and Slovakia [28]. Italy is focusing on
diversification and finding new suppliers, and Algeria is currently being considered
as such. In addition, the possibility of building a pipeline to supply gas from Spain
is being discussed. Belgium has a strong nuclear power industry but is an importer
of fuel resources. Although a fairly high proportion of them imported from Rus-
sia, the country has taken steps to diversify its sources of supply, importing oil
from Iran and Saudi Arabia and gas from Qatar, the Netherlands and Norway.
Lithuania’s economy is heavily dependent on Russian fuel imports, but the coun-
try was one of the first to abandon it. Currently, the country is focused on imports
through the LNG terminal in Klaipeda from other suppliers and the development
of green energy. Finland is focusing on new gas import agreements, including an
agreement with Estonia. A characteristic feature of Group 3 countries is the low
level of LNG use.
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Group 4 — Greece (HR), Estonia (MR), Ireland (MR), Spain (MR), Cyprus
(MR), Luxembourg (MR), Malta (MR), Portugal (MR), Slovenia (MR), Denmark
(MR), Latvia (MR). This group of countries includes countries with high, medium
and low risk - those that have low dependence on imports of fuel resources from
Russia and support the embargo, because they risk the least. The level of their
energy independence is determined mainly by other factors. With the exception of
Denmark, Estonia and Ireland, all countries in the group have seen an increase in
the Energy Freedom Index in recent years. Latvia, which transported gas from
Russia, is now relying on the supply of liquefied gas through the Klaipedos Nafta
terminal [29] and is stepping up its green energy policy. Luxembourg has the abil-
ity to quickly give up Russian coal but needs oil and gas. The Slovenian govern-
ment, although it has not given up on Russian fuel, has expressed its readiness to
support EU actions in this direction. The country is now focusing on obtaining
liquefied natural gas from a terminal in Croatia. Estonia had a high level of gas
supplies from Russia, but decided on a strategy of diversification, in particular,
the ports will be set up to receive liquefied natural gas. Spain was still the largest
importer of LNG from the United States — in 2021 its share rose to 65% [6; 8].
Almost all of Ireland’s imports are to the UK, the country focuses on the devel-
opment of renewable energy sources. Countries such as Cyprus, Greece, and
Malta are located in warm natural climates, fossil fuels are used only for indus-
trial purposes. However, the key industry of these countries is shipping, they are
engaged in the transportation of oil by sea, and in the embargo see a certain threat
of loss of traffic [30]. Greece is focused on the construction of new LNG floating
stations. To this end, a project has been launched to build a floating liquefied
natural gas terminal in Alexandroupolis [31]. The terminal is scheduled to be
completed by the end of 2023, which will identify Greece as the center of EU gas
reserves.
Risks and losses of Ukraine’s energy as a result of the military invasion of the
Russian Federation
In 2019, the Energy Freedom Index of Ukraine was 0,70 and ranked 49th out of
142 countries in the overall ranking [2]. Among the EU countries, only Romania
and Denmark were ahead of it.
It should be noted that in 2020 Ukraine’s Energy Freedom Index increased
by 10% to 0,77 and the overall Ief and energy potential subindex surpassed all EU
countries, and the energy balance subindex ranked 3rd. The high energy potential
and the general trend of growing energy independence allowed Ukraine to de-
velop an export-oriented energy policy. It had every prospect of becoming a com-
petitive and full-fledged player in the European energy market.
At the same time, Ukraine depends on oil imports by about 83%, 33% on
natural gas imports, and 50% on coal imports [32]. This situation is due to the
lack of incentives for the development of own energy production, significant de-
pletion of explored fields, and constant changes in government regulation on the
rent for hydrocarbon production. Over the past few years, the state has paid more
attention to eliminating dependence on gas imports. Therefore, in 2021, imports
of oil and petroleum products from Belarus to Ukraine exceeded 2,86 billion dol-
lars, and imports of these resources from Russia amounted to about 3,43 billion
dollars [33].
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Even before the beginning of the military aggression on February 24, 2022,
Ukraine was actively implementing measures to reduce energy dependence on
Russia. Such measures have received additional support from other countries.
Thus, Energoatom and all its stations were transferred to the Paris Center of the
World Association of Nuclear Operators (until now, Ukrainian nuclear power
plants were part of the Moscow center WANO). All operating nuclear power
plants are operating stably, despite losses. It was planned to build a storage facil-
ity for spent nuclear fuel. Ukraine has refused to purchase Russian nuclear fuel.
Currently, fuel reserves for WWER-1000 reactors will be enough for two years.
During this period, it is planned to equip one of the Ukrainian enterprises with a
production line for assembling Westinghouse fuel assemblies.
The Ukrainian power system has finally disconnected from the power sys-
tems of Russia and Belarus and joined the European Network of Transmission
System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). Accession provides a bilateral ad-
vantage: on the one hand, it is an opportunity for European business to work in
the energy market of Ukraine, on the other — the development of the European
energy market by domestic companies.
Military action has halted the active development of renewable energy that
has been observed in Ukraine in recent years. Solar energy suffers the most due to
the large area of damaged industrial solar generation facilities. Thus, according to
various estimates, 30–40% of solar power plants in the regions affected by the
Russian invasion were affected (1120–1500 MW of installed capacity). More than
two thirds of all wind power plants have been shut down. 10–15% of the installed
capacity of bioenergy facilities was affected [34].
Gas imports from Europe are uninterrupted, in March 2022 the volume of
imports amounted to 10 million cubic meters per day. Hungary provides the maxi-
mum volume of Ukraine daily imports (about 4,5 million cubic meters per day)
[35]. The GTS operators of Slovakia and Poland also provided additional guaranteed
capacity for gas imports to Ukraine.
Ukraine is also currently undergoing changes in the market for imports of oil
and oil products, where Russia and Belarus used to be key suppliers. The search
for new suppliers and the damage caused by hostilities at the largest domestic re-
fineries, Kremenchuk and Shebelynsky, provoked a shortage in the market and a
significant increase in product prices.
The outlined measures will increase the level of Ukraine’s energy inde-
pendence, as well as ensure full participation in the European electricity mar-
ket in the postwar period. However, repairing the damage will require global
financial support.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Analysis of the energy independence of the European Union, after the
Russian military intervention in Ukraine, showed significant negative conse-
quences. Unflexible and multi-vector energy policy of industrialized EU coun-
tries, and their underutilization of energy potential, including the development of
renewable energy, and low energy balance have led to import dependence on one
energy supplier, and limited opportunities to use their own energy sources. The
consequence of such an imbalance is the economic dependence of countries with
developed economies on the Russian Federation, which has a predominantly raw-
materials-based economy.
M. Zgurovsky, M. Kravchenko, K. Boiarynova, O. Ilyash, K. Kopishynska, I. Pyshnograiev
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2. For a long time, European countries have been increasing their depend-
ence on Russia’s fuel resources through slow implementation of reforms, differ-
entiation of suppliers, and development of energy infrastructure, considering it
economically feasible to use existing exporters and traditional transit infrastruc-
ture. The energy crisis of 2021 revealed the following problems of Europe’s en-
ergy system:
limited gas transportation capacity;
inadequate geographical location or insufficient length of existing gas
pipelines in the EU;
lack of LNG terminals and seaports in some countries;
failure of the existing level of developing renewable energy to meet en-
ergy needs.
3. In such circumstances, the implementation of the strategy of energy inde-
pendence of European countries from the Russian Federation should focus on two
basic areas:
diversification of supplies;
accelerated transition to the production and use of clean energy.
Studies have shown that both directions have significant limitations and
could lead to a complete abandonment of Russian energy at best in 2030, which
significantly complicates the imposition of a full embargo on energy imports from
this country until 2030.
4. An alternative to a full embargo could be a sharp reduction in energy im-
ports, imposing a 40% tariff on it, which would reduce imports by about 80%.
This will reduce economic losses for the countries, which are most dependent on
Russian energy. The economic effect of changing energy supply strategies for
European countries will depend on the replacement and redistribution of energy
between sectors.
5. The study of the level of energy independence of European countries pro-
vided an opportunity to identify four key groups of countries on this indicator:
with a high level of energy independence and a low level of risk of its loss;
with a sufficient level of energy independence and an acceptable level of
risk of its loss;
with an acceptable level of energy independence and an increased level of
risk of its loss;
with a low level of energy independence and a high level of risk of losing it.
The analysis showed that in the first and second groups of countries, there
are those who have an increased risk of losing energy independence due to the
embargo on energy from Russia. These risks must be minimized through the in-
troduction and implementation of planned EU measures aimed at diversifying
supplies and accelerating the transition to the production and use of clean energy.
6. Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine has led to the irreparable
destruction and destabilization of the country’s energy system, which was previ-
ously closely integrated with the respective systems of Russia and Belarus. As a
result of hostilities, the largest domestic refineries, Kremenchuk and Shebelynsky,
were damaged. There were destabilized energy supply chains from Europe, which
led to a significant deficit in the energy market and a significant increase in prod-
uct prices. In response to all the devastating phenomena since February 24, 2022,
Ukraine has joined the ENTSO-E integrated power system of continental Europe,
disconnected from the energy systems of Russia and Belarus, and established
supply chains for oil products from Europe. Despite the fighting and the capture
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of the largest Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Europe by Russian troops,
Ukraine’s energy system has been operating smoothly throughout the Russian
aggression. These measures are gradually increasing the level of Ukraine’s energy
independence and should ensure its full participation in the European market in
the postwar period. However, repairing large-scale damage will require global
political and financial support.
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Analysis of the impact of Rrussia’s military invasion of Ukraine on the energy independence …
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Received 15.06.2022
INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE
Michael Z. Zgurovsky, ORCID: 0000-0001-5896-7466, National Technical University
of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail:
zgurovsm@hotmail.com
Maryna O. Kravchenko, ORCID: 0000-0001-5405-0159, National Technical University
of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail:
marina.kravchenko.kpi@gmail.com
Kateryna O. Boiarynova, ORCID: 0000-0001-5879-2213, National Technical University
of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail:
boyarinovaea@ukr.net
Olha I. Ilyash, ORCID: 0000-0002-7882-3942, National Technical University of Ukraine
“Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: oliai@meta.ua
Kateryna O. Kopishynska, ORCID: 0000-0002-1609-2902, National Technical
University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail:
kopishynska@ukr.net
Ivan O. Pyshnograiev, ORCID: 0000-0002-3346-8318, National Technical Univer-
sity of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail:
pyshnograiev@gmail.com
АНАЛІЗ ВПЛИВУ ВІЙСЬКОВОГО ВТОРГНЕННЯ РОСІЇ В УКРАЇНУ
НА ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНУ НЕЗАЛЕЖНІСТЬ КРАЇН ЄВРОПИ / М.З. Згуровський,
М.О. Кравченко, К.О. Бояринова, О.І. Іляш, К.О. Копішинська, І.О. Пишнограєв
Анотація. Подано аналіз проблем енергетичної незалежності та енергопоста-
чання країн Європи з огляду на вплив повномасштабного воєнного вторгнення
Росії в Україну. Наведений аналіз ґрунтується на розробленому авторами
Індексі енергетичної незалежності (Energy Freedom Index – Ief), який агрегує
субіндекси енергетичного потенціалу, енергетичного балансу та розвитку ене-
ргетики. Сформовано рейтинг 142 країн світу за значенням вказаного індексу
та визначено місця країн Європейського Cоюзу і України у цьому рейтингу.
Проаналізовано заходи, спрямовані на підвищення рівня енергетичної
незалежності європейських країн та України. До головних заходів віднесено:
диверсифікація постачань та прискорений перехід на чисту енергетику. Про-
ведено кластеризацію країн Європи за рівнем утрат в економіці та безпеці
внаслідок ембарго на російські енергоносії. Виділено чотири групи країн за
ступенем їх готовності до заміни російських енергоносіїв та запровадження
ембарго. Проаналізовано динаміку показників індексу енергетичної
незалежності, їх залежності від російського імпорту та запропоновано заходи
для зменшення цієї залежності.
Ключові слова: енергетична незалежність, індекс енергетичної незалежності,
повномасштабне вторгнення Росії в Україну, залежність від російського вико-
пного палива.
|
| id | journaliasakpiua-article-265511 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:57Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/ba/24debecc3add21f2231038c10a93a8ba.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-2655112022-10-17T22:12:39Z Analysis of the impact of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine on the energy independence of European countries Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Boiarynova, Kateryna Ilyash, Olha Kopishynska, Kateryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan energy independence energy freedom index full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine reliance on Russian fossil fuels енергетична незалежність індекс енергетичної незалежності повномасштабне вторгнення Росії в Україну залежність від російського викопного палива The article presents an analysis of the problems of energy independence and energy supply of European countries, given the impact of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. This analysis is based on the Energy Freedom Index (Ief) developed by the authors, which aggregates sub-indices of energy potential, energy balance, and energy development. A rating of 142 countries of the world was formed according to the value of this index and the places of the EU countries and Ukraine in this rating were determined. Measures aimed at increasing the level of energy independence of European countries and Ukraine were analyzed. Diversification of supplies and accelerated transition to clean energy were proposed as the main measures. European countries have been clustered according to the level of economic and security losses due to the embargo on Russian energy resources. Four groups of countries have been identified in terms of their readiness to replace Russian energy resources and impose embargoes. The dynamics of the indicators of the energy freedom index and their dependence on Russian imports were analyzed, and measures to reduce this dependence were proposed. Подано аналіз проблем енергетичної незалежності та енергопостачання країн Європи з огляду на вплив повномасштабного воєнного вторгнення Росії в Україну. Наведений аналіз ґрунтується на розробленому авторами Індексі енергетичної незалежності (Energy Freedom Index – Ief), який агрегує субіндекси енергетичного потенціалу, енергетичного балансу та розвитку енергетики. Сформовано рейтинг 142 країн світу за значенням вказаного індексу та визначено місця країн Європейського Cоюзу і України у цьому рейтингу. Проаналізовано заходи, спрямовані на підвищення рівня енергетичної незалежності європейських країн та України. До головних заходів віднесено: диверсифікація постачань та прискорений перехід на чисту енергетику. Проведено кластеризацію країн Європи за рівнем утрат в економіці та безпеці внаслідок ембарго на російські енергоносії. Виділено чотири групи країн за ступенем їх готовності до заміни російських енергоносіїв та запровадження ембарго. Проаналізовано динаміку показників індексу енергетичної незалежності, їх залежності від російського імпорту та запропоновано заходи для зменшення цієї залежності. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2022-08-30 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265511 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.2.01 System research and information technologies; No. 2 (2022); 7-31 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 2 (2022); 7-31 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 2 (2022); 7-31 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265511/261532 |
| spellingShingle | енергетична незалежність індекс енергетичної незалежності повномасштабне вторгнення Росії в Україну залежність від російського викопного палива Zgurovsky, Michael Kravchenko, Maryna Boiarynova, Kateryna Ilyash, Olha Kopishynska, Kateryna Pyshnograiev, Ivan Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи |
| title | Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи |
| title_alt | Analysis of the impact of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine on the energy independence of European countries |
| title_full | Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи |
| title_fullStr | Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи |
| title_full_unstemmed | Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи |
| title_short | Аналіз впливу військового вторгнення Росії в Україну на енергетичну незалежність країн Європи |
| title_sort | аналіз впливу військового вторгнення росії в україну на енергетичну незалежність країн європи |
| topic | енергетична незалежність індекс енергетичної незалежності повномасштабне вторгнення Росії в Україну залежність від російського викопного палива |
| topic_facet | energy independence energy freedom index full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine reliance on Russian fossil fuels енергетична незалежність індекс енергетичної незалежності повномасштабне вторгнення Росії в Україну залежність від російського викопного палива |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265511 |
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