Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR
New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by the almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the ep...
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The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"
2022
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System research and information technologies| _version_ | 1866302867489423360 |
|---|---|
| author | Nesteruk, Igor |
| author_facet | Nesteruk, Igor |
| author_sort | Nesteruk, Igor |
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| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2022-10-17T22:12:39Z |
| description | New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by the almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the maximum possible values of new cases, the risk of infection, and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure were used to simulate and predict the dynamics of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and one worldwide. Results of calculations show that new cases in Ukraine will not stop appearing before November 2022. The pandemic can continue for another ten years if the global situation with vaccination, testing, and treatment does not change. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.2.07 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:58Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
I. Nesteruk, 2022
94 ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2
UDC 519.2, 519.8
DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.2.07
SIMULATIONS OF NEW COVID-19 PANDEMIC WAVES
IN UKRAINE AND IN THE WORLD
BY GENERALIZED SIR MODEL
I. NESTERUK
Abstract. New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the
summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were character-
ized by the almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases.
This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic
dynamics in order to assess the maximum possible values of new cases, the risk of
infection, and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding
parameter identification procedure were used to simulate and predict the dynamics
of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and one worldwide. Results of calculations
show that new cases in Ukraine will not stop appearing before November 2022. The
pandemic can continue for another ten years if the global situation with vaccination,
testing, and treatment does not change.
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, epidemic waves, epidemic dynamics in Ukraine,
global pandemic dynamic, mathematical modeling of infection diseases, SIR model,
parameter identification, statistical methods..
INTRODUCTION
The COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in Ukraine was discussed in [1–14]. To pre-
dict the first wave of the pandemic, the classical SIR model [15–17] and the sta-
tistics-based method of its parameter identification [18] were used. To simulate
new epidemic waves, a numerical method of their detection [4, 19], a generalized
SIR-model [20], and a corresponding parameter identification procedure [21]
were developed. In particular, eleven epidemic waves were simulated for Ukraine
[5, 8–11] and five pandemic waves for the whole world [5].
The calculations of the 11th pandemic wave (based on the accumulated
numbers cases reported by Ukrainian national statistics [22, 23] in the period May
23 – June 5, 2021) predicted the end of this wave on August 25, 2021 with the
number of cases 2,226,797 (see [11]). As of August 25, 2021 the real number of
cases accumulated in Ukraine was 2,278,171 (see Table 1). It means that the
predicted saturation level was exceeded only 2,26% (after 81 days of
observation). The obtained high accuracy of the method allows us to hope for a
fairly accurate forecast for next pandemic waves in Ukraine (12th and 13th) and
in the whole world (6th), to which this study is devoted. Some results concerning
the 12th epidemic wave in Ukraine are already available in [13].
DATA
We will use the data set regarding the accumulated numbers of laboratory-
confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ukraine from national sources [22, 23].
Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 95
The corresponding numbers jV , jd and moments of time tj (measured in days)
are shown in Table 1 for the period of July to November 2021. The values jV ,
corresponding to the previous moments of time, can be found in [4, 8–10]. The
period 11cT : May 23 – June 5, 2021 has been used in [10] for SIR simulations of
the eleventh epidemic wave in Ukraine. Here we use the datasets, corresponding
to the period 12cT : September 29 – October 12, 2021 to simulate the 12th wave
and the period 13cT : October 28 – November 10, 2021 for the 13th wave. Other
jV and jt values will be used to control the accuracy of predictions.
T a b l e 1 . Cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and
deaths in Ukraine in the summer and autumn of 2021 according to the national
statistics [22, 23]
Day in
corres-
ponding
month
of 2021
Number of
cases in
July,
jV
Number of
cases in
August,
jV
Number of
cases in
September,
jV
Number of
cases in
October,
jV
Number of
cases in
November,
jV
Number of
deaths in
October,
jd
Number of
deaths in
November,
jd
1 2236497 2253534 2290848 2447222 2955693 56649 68727
2 2237202 2254361 2293541 2455189 2979086 56775 69447
3 2237579 2255345 2296155 2460010 3006463 56889 70146
4 2237823 2256397 2297534 2469856 3032951 57206 70842
5 2238364 2257478 2298307 2482518 3058014 57526 71635
6 2238974 2258532 2300504 2497643 3075433 57840 72084
7 2239591 2259151 2303276 2514005 3088501 58081 72557
8 2240246 2259451 2306939 2529913 3107489 58331 73390
9 2240753 2260232 2310554 2541257 3130772 58463 74206
10 2241043 2261354 2314423 2550089 3155519 58700 74857
11 2241217 2262601 2316619 2562085 3179577 59052 75601
12 2241698 2263864 2317824 2578394 3203149 59523 76302
13 2242245 2265217 2321156 2597275 3217639 59935 76705
14 2242868 2265912 2325796 2610899 3228441 60137 77147
15 2243605 2266329 2331540 2623882 3244749 60414 78085
16 2244196 2267219 2338164 2635170 3263417 60633 78754
17 2244495 2268666 2344398 2644694 3284008 60810 79506
18 2244677 2270226 2348381 2660273 – 61348 –
19 2245275 2271826 2350646 2679185 – 61843 –
20 2245930 2273558 2355805 2701600 – 62389 –
21 2246656 2274561 2362559 2725385 – 63003 –
22 2247419 2275171 2370425 2748614 – 63486 –
23 2248164 2275863 2379483 2769405 – 63872 –
24 2248450 2276590 2387750 2784039 – 64202 –
25 2248663 2278171 2392397 2803159 – 64936 –
26 2249344 2280203 2395404 2825733 – 65628 –
27 2250061 2282285 2401956 2851804 – 66204 –
28 2250907 2284191 2411622 2878674 – 66852 –
29 2251869 2284940 2423379 2904872 – 67393 –
30 2252785 2286296 2435413 2922302 – 67729 –
31 2253269 2288371 – 2936238 – 68027 –
I. Nesteruk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 96
To estimate the mortality rate in Ukraine (ratio of accumulated number of
deaths jd to accumulated number of cases jV ), let us take figures jd corre-
sponding different days: 52,286 (June 26, 2021); 52,665 (July 13, 2021); 52,981
(August 2, 2021); 53,789 (August 30, 2021); 54,550 (September 15, 2021);
57,526 (October 5, 2021); 59,052 (October 11, 2021), [22, 23]. Taking corre-
sponding jV values we can calculate the mortality rates jji Vdm /1000* (per
thousand of cases) for the listed days: 23,40; 23,49; 23,50; 23,52; 23,40; 23,17;
23,05. Thus, the mortality rate is rather stable (its variation during June to Octo-
ber 2021 is only 0,47). We will use the average value 36,23m to predict the
number of deaths in Ukraine during the new 12th and 13th pandemic waves.
We will use the data set regarding the accumulated numbers of laboratory-
confirmed COVID-19 cases in the whole world from the COVID-19 Data
Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns
Hopkins University (JHU) [24]. The numbers jV and moments of time jt
(measured in days) corresponding to the version of JHU data available on
November 18, 2021 are shown in Table 2 for the period of May to November
2021. The period 6сT : September 29 – October 12, 2021 will be used for SIR
simulations of the sixth pandemic wave in the whole world. Other jV and jt
values will be used to control the accuracy of predictions.
T a b l e 2. Cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in the
whole world in the summer and autumn of 2021 according to the JHU datasets [24]
Day in
corres-
ponding
month
of 2021
Number of
casesin
May,
jV
Number of
cases in
June,
jV
Number of
cases in
July,
jV
Number of
cases in
August,
jV
Number of
cases in
September
jV
Number of
cases in
October,
jV
Number of
cases in
November,
jV
1 152276590 171272898 182726434 198444595 218595466 234356127 247171157
2 152951570 171758996 183167695 199022653 219272430 234701054 247599693
3 153630578 172248309 183544382 199660021 219990395 235008467 248117984
4 154438256 172667912 183872893 200335410 220474967 235452671 248643609
5 155280720 173067049 184242453 201024324 220914961 235872200 249157004
6 156150815 173390272 184695883 201846052 221355380 236384642 249569269
7 156983904 173710775 185159327 202397022 222080699 236816997 249914970
8 157770675 174077854 185639668 202838586 222712220 237290992 250391584
9 158412936 174497701 186147179 203492405 223349675 237622759 250871092
10 159031606 174947362 186574219 204141032 223983497 237937441 251442851
11 159770619 175368288 186944737 204869528 224439880 238319075 251956201
12 160530984 175741060 187381421 205580294 224808018 238751674 252542169
13 161256546 176044679 187901397 206385979 225409164 239214456 252974728
14 161974329 176352002 188442853 206919889 225960250 239658510 253318827
15 162603295 176723278 189014972 207383880 226527940 240115116 253860137
16 163152581 177121944 189613250 208062469 227104401 240449869 254382438
17 163691215 177514452 190087192 208745487 227697551 240764659 –
18 164313944 177921297 190518240 209473681 228234315 241178794 –
19 164986139 178270695 191014762 210189272 228594983 241619751 –
20 165265741 178573040 191544693 210979353 229128857 242090131 –
21 165892200 178866758 192103503 211519485 229597662 242546214 –
22 166471396 179238527 192667887 211965954 230135505 243030920 –
23 166948481 179676298 193357870 212670361 230646900 243390258 –
Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 97
Continued Table 2
Day in
corres-
ponding
month
of 2021
Number of
casesin
May,
jV
Number of
cases in
June,
jV
Number of
cases in
July,
jV
Number of
cases in
August,
jV
Number of
cases in
September
jV
Number of
cases in
October,
jV
Number of
cases in
November,
jV
24 167400782 180081192 193829848 213357235 231194181 243705625 –
25 167933373 180503102 194275173 214087524 231560977 244135761 –
26 168502846 180869106 194815533 214823164 231909080 244576866 –
27 169057033 181180563 195425745 215568802 232381444 245088017 –
28 169557476 181508885 196070028 216116120 232830308 245545805 –
29 170039483 181888509 196722877 216562642 233332705 246049111 –
30 170431363 182285486 197453162 217249144 233817106 246429566 –
31 170810073 – 197963310 217868234 – 246749382 –
GENERALIZED SIR MODEL AND DATA SMOOTHING PROCEDURE
The generalized SIR-model relates the number of susceptible S , infectious I and
removed persons R for a particular epidemic wave i , [9, 20]. The exact solution
of the set of non-linear differential equations uses the function
)()()( tRtItV , (1)
corresponding to the number of victims or the cumulative laboratory-confirmed
number of cases versus time t [9, 20]. Its derivative:
SI
dt
dV
i (2)
yields the estimation of the average daily number of new cases. When the regis-
tered number of victims jV is a random realization of its theoretical dependence (1),
the exact solution presented in [9, 20] depends on five parameters ( i is one of
them). The details of the optimization procedure for their identification can be
found in [21].
Since daily numbers of new cases are random and characterized by some
weekly periodicity, we will use the smoothed daily number of accumulated cases:
3
37
1 ij
ij
ji VV ,
and its numerical derivative:
)(
2
1
11
ii
tt
VV
dt
Vd
i
(3)
to estimate the smoothed number of new daily cases [4, 5, 10, 19].
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The optimal values of SIR-model parameters and other characteristics of the 12th
and 13th pandemic waves in Ukraine and the 6th wave in the whole world are
calculated and listed in Table 3. The corresponding SIR curves are shown in
I. Nesteruk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 98
Figs. 1 and 2 by blue and brown lines for Ukraine and green lines for the world.
Black lines illustrate the results of SIR simulation of the eleventh epidemic wave
in Ukraine published in [11]. It can be seen that the optimal values of SIR pa-
rameters are very different (even for 12th and 13th epidemic waves in Ukraine).
Close values were obtained only for the average times of spreading the infection
i/1 . The assessments of the pandemic wave durations (corresponding the mo-
ment when the number of infectious persons becomes less that unit) are very pes-
simistic (November, 2022 for Ukraine and December 2031 for the whole world).
A similar long epidemic wave was also predicted for India [25].
T a b l e 3 . Optimal values of parameters and other characteristics of the 12th and
13th COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and the 6th wave in the whole world
Characteristics
12th epidemic wave in
Ukraine,
i=12, [13]
13th epidemic wave in
Ukraine,
i=13
6th pandemic wave in
the whole world,
i=6
Time period
taken for
calculations Tci
September 29 –
October 12, 2021
October 28 –
November 10, 2021
September 29 –
October 12, 2021
Ii 25,261.4089164122 73,492.9652436053 1,550,494.67573132
Ri 2,399,050.73394073 2,801,190.17761354 231,782,051.609983
Ni 3,790,400 7,237,600 334,411,200
i 1,137,541.61656928 4,252,588.61675970 101736415.543763
i 2.63670321714285e-07 6.7868529452959e-08 2.84345358576434e-09
i 0.299935964004210 0.288616935787874 0.289282775580724
i/1 3.33404499630449 3.46480014164856 3.45682523956893
ri 0.997536473683354 0.998339758268927 0.999305866880929
iS 845,264 3,503,575 84,981,994
iV 2,945,136 3,734,025 249,429,206
Final day of the
epidemic wave June 16, 2022 November 13, 2022 December 2031
The saturation levels (final sizes) iV of the 12th wave in Ukraine and 6th
global wave are already exceeded (compare corresponding values in Tables 1–3).
As of November 17, 2021 the real accumulated number of deaths – 79,506 – reg-
istered in Ukraine (see Table 1) has already exceeded the figure 68,764 predicted
in [13] for the end of 2021 with the use of V(t) curve for 12th epidemic wave.
This discrepancy can be explained by the sharp increase in the daily number of
new cases which occurred after long holidays October 14–17, 2021 (see red
“crosses” in Figs. 1 and 2). These changes in the epidemic dynamics indicate the
beginning of a new (13th) wave in Ukraine. The calculations allow us to estimate
the new saturation level 13V = 3,734,025 (see Table 3) and the expected
accumulated number of deaths 3,734,025*0,02336=87,227 by November 2022.
Registered numbers of deaths in Ukraine agree with the theoretical estimation for
13th wave (compare the magenta “triangles“ and the dashed magenta line in
Fig. 2).
Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 99
According to the predictions for the 12th wave (posted in [13]], the numbers
of infectious persons and average daily new cases will stop to increase around 17
and 14 October 2021, respectively (see blue dashed and dotted lines in Fig. 2).
The registered smoothed daily number of new cases in Ukraine really achieved a
local maximum on October 10, 2021, but started to increase very rapid after Oc-
tober 17, 2022 (see the red “crosses” in Figs. 1 and 2).
The results of SIR simulations of the 11th (see [11]), 12th, and 13th waves in
Ukraine are shown by black, blue, and brown lines, respectively. Green lines represent the
6th pandemic wave in the whole world. Numbers of victims )()()( tRtItV — solid
lines (for the world divided by 60); numbers of infected and spreading )(tI multiplied by
5 – dashed; derivatives dtdV / (eq. (2), multiplied by 100 for Ukraine and by 2 for the
world) — dotted. “Circles” correspond to the accumulated numbers of cases registered
during the periods of time taken for SIR simulations (for the world divided by 60). “Stars”
corresponds to jV values beyond these time periods (for the world divided by 60).
“Crosses” show the first derivative (3) multiplied by 100 for Ukraine and by 2 for the
world.
Unfortunately, the general SIR model cannot predict the emergence of new
epidemic waves. It simulates the dynamics for only the period with constant
epidemic conditions. Therefore, permanent monitoring of the number of new
cases is needed to determine changes in the epidemic dynamics. After that it is
possible to do new simulations by means of the generalized SIR model with
calculation and use of new values of its parameters.
We can only point out the three possible reasons for the new 13th wave in
Ukraine:
1. The long weekend of October 14–17, 2021 without significant quarantine
restrictions led to a significant increase in travels and contacts. This period ac-
counted for the maximum number of infected (see the blue dashed curve in
Fig. 2). We observed a similar situation in Ukraine in May 2020, when the lock-
down was lifted during the period of the maximum number of infectious people,
which led to the emergence of the second epidemic wave before the end of the
first one [5, 10]. An increase in contacts during the holidays in early May 2021
Time in days in 2021
N
um
b
er
o
f c
as
es
a
nd
d
er
iv
at
iv
es
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
106
Fig. 1. The COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the whole world in the
summer and autumn of 2021
I. Nesteruk
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2022, № 2 100
also led to an increase in the number of infectious persons (see the black dashed
line in Fig. 1). But during this period there was a tendency to reduce the daily
number of new cases, so the increase in contacts only slowed down this trend (see
red “crosses” in Fig. 1).
2. Due to a large number of asymptomatic patients, many COVID-19 cases
are not detected and registered [26–31]. The ratio of real to detected cases in
Ukraine was estimated to be between 4 and 20 for different periods of time [9, 11].
Such large numbers of undetected cases may suddenly change the number of
reported cases, if the population frightened by the increase in mortality begins to
seek medical care more often.
3. Appearance of new coronavirus strains.
The results of SIR simulations of the 12th and 13th waves in Ukraine are shown by
blue and brown lines, respectively. Green lines represent the 6th pandemic wave in the
whole world. Numbers of victims )()()( tRtItV — solid lines (for the world divided
by 60); numbers of infected and spreading )(tI (multiplied by 5 for Ukraine) – dashed;
derivatives dtdV / (eq. (2), multiplied by 100 for Ukraine and by 2 for the world) —
dotted. The magenta lines represent the estimation of the accumulated number of deaths
during the 12th (solid) and 13th (dashed) epidemic waves in Ukraine multiplied by 10.
Magenta “triangles” represent the accumulated numbers of death in Ukraine form Table 1
multiplied by 10. “Circles” correspond to the accumulated numbers of cases registered
during the periods of time taken for SIR simulations (for the world divided by 60). “Stars”
corresponds to jV values beyond these time periods (for the world divided by 60).
“Crosses” show the first derivative (3) multiplied by 100 for Ukraine and by 2 for the
world.
“Stars” and “crosses” in Figs. 1 and 2 illustrate the accuracy of simulations
for the accumulated number of cases and the averaged daily numbers of new
cases (eq. (3)). Comparisons with corresponding blue solid and dotted lines in
Fig. 2 show that the theoretical estimations for 12th wave in Ukraine were
consistent with observations before October 15, 2021. After October 18 the
results of observations are very close to the theoretical estimations for the 13th
wave (see brown solid and dotted lines in Fig. 2). As of November 17, 2021 the
Fig. 2. The COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the whole world in the
autumn of 2021
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
N
um
b
er
o
f c
as
es
a
nd
d
er
iv
at
iv
es
106
Time in days in 2021
Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by …
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2022, № 2 101
number of infectious persons (the brown dashed line) and the daily number of new
cases were decreasing. Premature lifting of quarantine restrictions, a significant
increase in contacts during the New Year and Christmas holidays or/and the
appearance of a new coronavirus strain could disrupt these positive trends.
Unfortunately, the general SIR model cannot predict the emergence of new
epidemic waves. It simulates the dynamics for only the period with constant
epidemic conditions. Therefore, permanent monitoring of the number of new
cases is needed to determine changes in the epidemic dynamics. After that it is
possible to do new simulations by means of the generalized SIR model with
calculation and use of new values of its parameters.
The global number of new cases is also characterized by wave-like behavior
(see green “crosses” in Fig. 1). But unlike Ukraine and many other countries, the
difference between the minimum and maximum values of the derivative (3) is
much smaller for the world dynamics. The minima of new global cases also do
not go to zero (compare green and red “crosses” in Figs. 1 and 2). All this limits
the use of the SIR model for the long-term predictions. In particular, the increase
in daily number of new cases (see green “crosses” in Figs. 1 and 2) indicate the
beginning of a new global wave after October 15, 2021 (this fact makes the
predictions for the 6th wave no more relevant). It should be noted that the
COVID-19 pandemic is characterized by a very slow decline in the number of
infectious )(tI . In particular, according to the results of modeling of the 6th
world wave (shown in Table 3), the number of infectious persons worldwide may
be less than 100 in May 2021. This small number is enough to continue the
pandemic for almost 10 years.
CONCLUSIONS
The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure
was used to simulate and predict the dynamics of two new epidemic waves in
Ukraine and one in the whole world. Results of calculations show that new cases
in Ukraine will not stop to appear before November 2022. If the global situation
with vaccination, testing and treatment will not change, the pandemic could
continue for another ten years.
Acknowledgements. The author is grateful to Oleksii Rodionov for his help
in collecting and processing data.
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Received 11.05.2022
INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE
Igor G. Nesteruk, ORCID: 0000-0001-7250-2729, Institute of Hydromechanics, National
Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine, e-mail: inesteruk@yahoo.com
МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ НОВИХ ХВИЛЬ ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19 В УКРАЇНІ ТА
СВІТІ ЗА УЗАГАЛЬНЕНОЮ МОДЕЛЛЮ SIR / І.Г. Нестерук
Анотація. Нові хвилі пандемії COVID-19 в Україні, що розпочалися влітку
2021 року та після свят у середині жовтня 2021 року, характеризувались майже
експоненціальним зростанням згладженої щоденної кількості нових випадків.
Це викликає велике занепокоєння та необхідність негайного прогнозування
динаміки епідемії, щоб оцінити можливі максимальні значення нових випад-
ків, ризику зараження та кількості смертей. Узагальнену SIR-модель та проце-
дуру ідентифікації відповідних параметрів використано для моделювання і
прогнозування динаміки двох нових епідемічних хвиль в Україні та однієї у
світі. Результати розрахунків показують, що нові випадки в Україні не пере-
стануть з’являтися до листопада 2022 року. Якщо глобальна ситуація з вакци-
нацією, тестуванням та лікуванням не зміниться, пандемія може тривати ще
десять років.
Ключові слова: пандемія COVID-19, епідемічні хвилі, епідемічна динаміка
в Україні, глобальна динаміка пандемії, математичне моделювання інфекцій-
них захворювань, модель SIR, ідентифікація параметрів, статистичні методи.
|
| id | journaliasakpiua-article-265630 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:27:58Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/d5/2e1f56b70c217f85d9c5205b8d5eabd5.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-2656302022-10-17T22:12:39Z Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR Nesteruk, Igor COVID-19 pandemic epidemic waves epidemic dynamics in Ukraine global pandemic dynamic mathematical modeling of infection diseases SIR model parameter identification statistical methods пандемія COVID-19 епідемічні хвилі епідемічна динаміка в Україні глобальна динаміка пандемії математичне моделювання інфекційних захворювань модель SIR ідентифікація параметрів статистичні методи New waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, which began in the summer of 2021, and after holidays in the middle of October 2021, were characterized by the almost exponential growth of smoothed daily numbers of new cases. This is a matter of great concern and the need to immediately predict the epidemic dynamics in order to assess the maximum possible values of new cases, the risk of infection, and the number of deaths. The generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure were used to simulate and predict the dynamics of two new epidemic waves in Ukraine and one worldwide. Results of calculations show that new cases in Ukraine will not stop appearing before November 2022. The pandemic can continue for another ten years if the global situation with vaccination, testing, and treatment does not change. Нові хвилі пандемії COVID-19 в Україні, що розпочалися влітку 2021 року та після свят у середині жовтня 2021 року, характеризувались майже експоненціальним зростанням згладженої щоденної кількості нових випадків. Це викликає велике занепокоєння та необхідність негайного прогнозування динаміки епідемії, щоб оцінити можливі максимальні значення нових випадків, ризику зараження та кількості смертей. Узагальнену SIR-модель та процедуру ідентифікації відповідних параметрів використано для моделювання і прогнозування динаміки двох нових епідемічних хвиль в Україні та однієї у світі. Результати розрахунків показують, що нові випадки в Україні не перестануть з’являтися до листопада 2022 року. Якщо глобальна ситуація з вакцинацією, тестуванням та лікуванням не зміниться, пандемія може тривати ще десять років. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2022-08-30 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265630 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2022.2.07 System research and information technologies; No. 2 (2022); 94-103 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 2 (2022); 94-103 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 2 (2022); 94-103 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265630/261674 |
| spellingShingle | пандемія COVID-19 епідемічні хвилі епідемічна динаміка в Україні глобальна динаміка пандемії математичне моделювання інфекційних захворювань модель SIR ідентифікація параметрів статистичні методи Nesteruk, Igor Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR |
| title | Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR |
| title_alt | Simulations of new COVID-19 pandemic waves in Ukraine and in the world by generalized SIR model |
| title_full | Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR |
| title_fullStr | Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR |
| title_full_unstemmed | Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR |
| title_short | Моделювання нових хвиль пандемії COVID-19 в Україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю SIR |
| title_sort | моделювання нових хвиль пандемії covid-19 в україні та світі за узагальненою моделлю sir |
| topic | пандемія COVID-19 епідемічні хвилі епідемічна динаміка в Україні глобальна динаміка пандемії математичне моделювання інфекційних захворювань модель SIR ідентифікація параметрів статистичні методи |
| topic_facet | COVID-19 pandemic epidemic waves epidemic dynamics in Ukraine global pandemic dynamic mathematical modeling of infection diseases SIR model parameter identification statistical methods пандемія COVID-19 епідемічні хвилі епідемічна динаміка в Україні глобальна динаміка пандемії математичне моделювання інфекційних захворювань модель SIR ідентифікація параметрів статистичні методи |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/265630 |
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