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A study of the underground tunnel planning reliability for megacities is proposed based on the use of foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Using the foresight methodology allows, with the help of expert estimation procedures, to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of sce...
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System research and information technologies| _version_ | 1867334432572047360 |
|---|---|
| author | Pankratova, Nataliya Musiienko, Danylo |
| author_facet | Pankratova, Nataliya Musiienko, Danylo |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "Nataliya Pankratova",
"institution": "Educational and Scientific Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
},
{
"author": "Danylo Musiienko",
"institution": "Educational and Scientific Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine \"Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute\", Kyiv"
}
] |
| author_sort | Pankratova, Nataliya |
| baseUrl_str | http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2023-05-24T21:28:17Z |
| description | A study of the underground tunnel planning reliability for megacities is proposed based on the use of foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Using the foresight methodology allows, with the help of expert estimation procedures, to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, cognitive modeling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge and experience, understand and analyze the behavior of a complex system for a strategic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The suggested study allows the reliability planning of underground tunnels on the basis of reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.1.03 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:28:07Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
N.D. Pankratova, D.I. Musiienko, 2023
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 1 37
TIДC
ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ ТА ПРИКЛАДНІ ПРОБЛЕМИ
ІНТЕЛЕКТУАЛЬНИХ СИСТЕМ ПІДТРИМАННЯ
ПРИЙНЯТТЯ РІШЕНЬ
UDC 303.732.4, 519.816
DOI: 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.1.03
STUDY OF THE UNDERGROUND TUNNEL PLANNING.
COGNITIVE MODELLING
N.D. PANKRATOVA, D.I. MUSIIENKO
Abstract. A study of the underground tunnel planning reliability for megacities is
proposed based on the use of foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Using
the foresight methodology allows, with the help of expert estimation procedures, to
identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative
characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, cognitive
modeling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge
and experience, understand and analyze the behavior of a complex system for a stra-
tegic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies.
The suggested study allows the reliability planning of underground tunnels on the
basis of reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority.
Keywords: cognitive, impulse modelling, planning, scenarios, underground tunnel.
INTRODUCTION
The global trend of increasing urbanization poses challenges for both expanding
and newly developing cities. Population growth leads to an increased demand for
reliable infrastructure, which in the current war times is combined with the need
for increased safety and environmental awareness of the population. The use of
underground space can help cities meet these increased needs while remaining
compact, or find the space needed to incorporate new features into the existing
urban landscape. When underground solutions are considered and evaluated from
the planning or initial stages of a project, better solutions become possible. Effi-
cient and rational placement of numerous structures of transport, energy, eco-
nomic, municipal, social and creation of large-scale engineering infrastructure
sets the task of strategic planning of underground space of megacities [1]. Under-
ground urban development is a complex system in many aspects. Firstly, this sys-
tem consists of many interconnected subsystems and objects. Secondly, the proc-
esses flowing in this system both during construction and operation are also
complicated and in some cases poorly predictable, because they are largely re-
lated to different geological processes. The problems accompanying the under-
ground urban planning can be referred to the weakly structured problems. Under-
ground urbanism, which is an integral part of the modern megacity, has already
gone beyond the individual local objects and is becoming a system factor in the
N.D. Pankratova, D.I. Musiienko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 1 38
development of cities. Let us consider urbanism as a global super-system in the
form of an ordered set of structurally interconnected and functionally interde-
pendent global systems.
The implementation of underground transport tunnel projects requires a de-
tailed study of the surrounding facilities, taking into account the reduced capacity,
increased travel time delay, fuel consumption, the number of traffic accidents,
which lead to unaccounted economic losses. Thus, it becomes necessary to study
and quantify the impact of construction work zones of high-speed public transport
system on the transport environment, which will further help to assess economic
losses due to the construction work zone of underground transport facilities [2].
According to the “optimistic scenario” over 20 km of transport tunnels can
be built in Kiev in the next ten years. At the same time it is necessary to justify
the expediency and reliability of the tunnel construction taking into account the
development characteristic to the territory in question, the road network, and the
characteristics of traffic in the area of the potential tunnel.
All of the above allows us to propose a methodology for anticipation and
cognitive modeling of complex systems [3–5] for modeling and analysis of plan-
ning the development of the metropolitan underground tunnels under conditions
of environmental, man-made and terrorist threats.
RELATED PAPERS
Practical guidance on assessing the impact of soft ground tunneling in urban areas
on existing structures and services is provided in paper [6]. Various empirical ap-
proaches to the definition of the surface settlement zone are summarized and the
assessment of the magnitude and distribution of surface movements is compared
with case history data. A tentative risk classification related to settlement and
maximum slope criteria is proposed, which will allow rapid optimization of route
adjustments and thereby identification of those buildings particularly at risk and
requiring a more detailed assessment. Predicting anomalous geological structures
before tunneling (ahead of exploration) has become an important routine in tun-
neling, providing particularly important a priori information for safe, economical
and efficient tunneling. Article [7] analyzes the characteristics, advantages and
applicability of various methods. Preliminary exploration should be aimed at de-
termining the properties of the rock before the tunnel is closed, and not at assess-
ing the structure. Life safety issues associated with fires and explosions are criti-
cal issues in the design of large underground structures. In [8] these issues are
considered and discussed from the viewpoint of existing life safety codes.
Much attention when planning underground facilities is paid to environ-
mental issues, reducing ground noise sources, minimizing vibrations in the envi-
ronment, both caused by the railway and created by the explosion of rocks [9–11].
Actual problems of underground urbanization of the central part of Lviv are con-
sidered in [12]. The questions of interaction of natural and technogenic compo-
nents during the development of the underground space of the city are covered.
The main risk-forming factors in the construction of multi-level underground
parking have been identified. The relief, geological structure and hydrogeological
conditions of the central part of the city are analyzed. A spatial analysis of the
Study of the underground tunnel planning. Сognitive modelling
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 1 39
risk-forming components of the geological environment has been carried out.
Zones with varying degrees of geological risk have been identified. Reference
[13] presents a numerical model for predicting vibrations and re-radiated noise in
buildings caused by rail traffic. A three-dimensional numerical model capable of
simulating the propagation and transmission of ground vibrations near high-speed
railways is presented in [14]. It is used to study the effect of the material that
makes up the embankment on the level of ground vibration at different distances
from the track. The paper [15] discusses the design, installation, and also experi-
mental and numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of a rigid wave barrier in the
ground as a measure to mitigate the effects of railway-induced vibration.
Ground vibration from underground tunnels is a major environmental prob-
lem in urban areas. To study this problem, various studies have been carried out,
mainly based on numerical methods [16]. This article presents a study of the in-
fluence of changes in soil properties with depth (soil heterogeneity) on soil vibra-
tion from an underground tunnel. Comparison of experimental and numerical re-
sults shows that a homogeneous model can give acceptable estimates of tunnel
behavior. However, a clear improvement in the estimates of soil behavior is ob-
served when the change in soil properties with depth is taken into account in the
numerical model. In [17], the range disturbed by earthworks and a model for nu-
merical analysis of underground engineering and surface structures are deter-
mined, and the relationship between stress and deformation of surface buildings
caused by deformation is obtained. The feedback of the results of the analysis
with the data management of the GIS platform has been received. By comparing
with the relevant standard damage assessment rules, it can provide technical sup-
port to decision makers. By analyzing and verifying the case study of the impact
on buildings caused by the excavation of the underwater tunnel terminal, it is pos-
sible to ensure the safety of the above-ground buildings affected by the excava-
tion.
It follows from the above review that one of the complex problems is under-
ground tunnels, which ensure the vital activity of both surface and underground
urban planning. This paper examines the issue of the construction of underground
tunnels and the rationale for the priority of their creation.
MODELS AND METHODS
The development of the strategy of innovative planning of underground construc-
tion development belongs to the class of weakly structured tasks, in which the
goals, structure and conditions are known only partially and are characterized by a
large volume of non-factors: imprecision, incompleteness, uncertainty, and fuzzy
data describing the object. Such problems are characterized by many contradic-
tions and uncertainties. The most important of them are:
ambiguity and inconsistency of requirements for the product;
inconsistency of goals and ambiguity of the conditions of application of
the product;
uncertainty and unpredictability of possible actions of competitors;
infinity and unpredictability of risk situations at different stages of the
product life cycle.
N.D. Pankratova, D.I. Musiienko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 1 40
In these conditions, using heterogeneous, usually incomplete, empirical, ex-
perimental, casual and other background information, the developer must formal-
ize and solve the problem of product design, in particular to formulate and justify
the goals of its creation. The results of the solution of this problem should prove
the practical necessity, technological possibility and economic feasibility of pro-
duction of the designed product [3].
Solving approximated to reality tasks of anticipation, at its different stages
use different methods of qualitative analysis in a single man-machine procedure.
In this study, the method of morthological analysis is used to select the character-
istic parameters of the cognitive model [4].
The cognitive approach to the solution of this problem required the defini-
tion and description of the main elements (parameters, factors, concepts), causes
and consequences characterizing the natural-technical geosystem (“underground
construction – environment”). As a result of cognitive modeling, scenarios of pos-
sible development of a complex system arising under the influence of changes in
the internal and external environment of an underground structure must be ob-
tained. It is especially important for knowledge and prevention of negative conse-
quences, minimization of damage in conditions of influence of the most unfavor-
able combination of negative factors: external and internal static and dynamic
loads, all kinds of technogenic influences inside an underground construction,
harmful natural manifestations from the rock mass, etc.
A systematic approach to the modeling and scenario analysis of infrastruc-
ture planning of the megacity under environmental, man-made and terrorist
threats, based on the joint application of the methodologies of foresight and cog-
nitive modeling [18]. It is proposed to use these methodologies together: at the
first stage to apply the methodology of foresight using the method of morphologi-
cal analysis. The results obtained are used as background information to find
ways to build an alternative of this or that scenario in the form of a cognitive map.
To justify the implementation of this or that scenario alternative, cognitive model-
ing methodology is involved, which allows to build cause-effect relationships on
the basis of knowledge and experience, understand and analyze the behavior of a
complex system (SS) for a strategic perspective with a large number of relation-
ships and interdependencies, applying a scientifically sound strategy for imple-
menting the priority scenario [19].
Cognitive modeling begins with the development of a cognitive map of the
object. A cognitive map – a structural scheme of cause-and-effect relationships in
a system that interprets the judgments and views of the LPR – is constructed in
order to understand and analyze the behavior of a complex system. Let the under-
ground infrastructure in question consist of many individual elements. Two ele-
ments of the system and patterns can be depicted as separate point-to-points, and
if an element is connected to an element by a causal relationship, they are con-
nected by an oriented arc. It is quite possible that consequences can be the cause
of changes in other factors. Causal chains can be quite long and complex. The
analysis of cause-and-effect chains is necessary, for example, for forecasting of
development of a situation, realization of various controls of processes in a sys-
tem. After the cause-and-effect diagrams are constructed, the decision-making
strategies in a given subject area are determined. As a result of cognitive structu-
Study of the underground tunnel planning. Сognitive modelling
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 1 41
ration, an informal description of knowledge about the subject area is developed,
which can be visualized as a scheme, graph, matrix, table or text [5].
In the study of the problem of justification of land suitability for under-
ground tunnel construction at the first stage were used cognitive models such as
a cognitive map – sign oriented graph and a functional graph in the form of
a weighted sign orograph
, , EVG
where V — set of nodes kiVVi ,,2,1, , which are elements of the system
under study; E — set of arcs NjiEeij ,,2,1,; , reflecting the relationship
between the nodes iV and jV ; the impact can be positive (sign “+” above the arc),
when the increase (decrease) of one factor leads to an increase (decrease) of an-
other, negative (sign “-“ above the arc), when the increase (decrease) of one factor
leads to a decrease (increase) of another, or absent (0).
Vector graph
,Θ), ,(,, EXFXG
where G is a cognitive map; X is a set of node parameters; Θ — vertex pa-
rameter space; ) , ( EXF — arc transformation functional.
At the third stage of cognitive modeling, a pulse process model (cognitive
modeling of perturbation propagation) was used to determine the possible de-
velopment of processes in a complex system and develop development sce-
narios [28]:
,)()(),,( )()1(
1
nQnPexxfnxnx
iii vjijji
N
j
vv
where ) 1( ),( nxnx are the values of the index in the vertex iV at the simulation
steps at the moment nt and following it 1 nt ; ) (nPj is the momentum in
the vertex jV at the moment nt ; } , , , {)( 21 kv qqqnQ
i
is the vector of ex-
ternal momentum (disturbing or controlling actions) introduced in the vertices iV
at time n .
Simulation cognitive modeling, especially at the design stage of under-
ground space development, is extremely necessary. A serious reason for this may
be the fact that it is necessary to anticipate and exclude or reduce the risks, which
are inevitably inherent in the underground urban development. One of the com-
plex problems is the underground tunnels providing life for both surface and un-
derground urban development. This paper explores the construction of under-
ground tunnels and the justification of the priority and reliability of their
construction.
CASE STUDY
Let us carry out a study of the reliability planning of two types of underground
tunnels: Tunnel 1 through the built-up part of the city and Tunnel 5 through the
Dnipro River. Table 1 present the data of the vertices (concepts) of the cognitive
models G1 of Tunnel 1.
N.D. Pankratova, D.I. Musiienko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 1 42
T a b l e 1 . The vertices of the hierarchical cognitive map Tunnel 1
Code Name of the vertex Assignment of the vertex
V1 V1. State of the Tunnel 1 Indicative
V2 V2. Anthropogenic activities Perturbing
V2.1 V2.1. The Evil Mind: Fighting, Terrorism Perturbing
V2.2 V2.2. Without malice Perturbing
V3 V3. Technogenic events Perturbing
V3.1 V3.1. Technical Perturbing
V3.2 V3.2. Technological Perturbing
V4 V4. Natural disasters, weather catastrophes Perturbing
V4.1 V4.1 Shifts Perturbing
V5 V5. Protection of the object Basic
V6 V6. The scale of the impact of an undesirable event Disturbing
V7 V7. Ability to function Disturbing
V8 V8. Time to restore functioning Disturbing
V9 V9. Environmental consequences Disturbing
V10 V10. Economic consequences Disturbing
V11 V11. Consequences for life Disturbing
V12 V12. The number of injured Disturbing
V13 V13. Organizational, technical, etc. capabilities Basic
V14 V14. Investor Basic
V15 V15. Level of damage Disturbing
V15.1 V15.1. Integrity of the ruin system Basic
V16 V16. Material damage Disturbing
V17 V17. Geotechnology of construction Basic
V18 V18. Capacity of land routes Basic
V19 V19. Population Basic
V20 V20. Intensity of movement Disturbing
V21 V21. Average speed Disturbing
V22 V22. Undeground vibrations Disturbing
V23 V23. Atmospheric pollution Disturbing
Before using the cognitive model to determine its possible behavior of modeling
analyzes the various properties of the model is fulfilled. In this case, the stability
properties of the model must be analyzed. The initial cognitive map was unstable.
Taking into account the weight characteristics obtained from the results of the
morphological analysis, a stable cognitive map was obtained for Tunnel 1, and
then and for Tunnel 5. The cognitive model was reduced to a stable form with
respect to perturbations. According to the adopted criterion [5]: the maximal
modulo root of the graph relation matrix characteristic equation is 0.96931M .
The cognitive map also is stable according to the initial value. An analysis of the
ratio of the number of stabilizing cycles (5 negative feedbacks) and process
accelerator cycles (3 positive feedbacks) indicates the structural stability of such
a system. For structural stability, the number of negative cycles must be odd [5].
Fig. 1 shows the sustainable cognitive map G1 of Tunnel 1.
The solid lines of arcs in Fig. 1 mean that with an increase (or decrease) in the
signal at the vertex iV , the same changes occur at the vertex jV — an increase (or
decrease). The dashed lines of arcs in Fig. 1 mean: an increase (or decrease) in the
pulse at the vertex iV leads to a decrease (or increase) in the pulse at the vertex jV .
Study of the underground tunnel planning. Сognitive modelling
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 1 43
F
ig
. 1
. S
us
ta
in
ab
le
c
og
ni
tiv
e
m
ap
G
1
of
T
un
ne
l 1
N.D. Pankratova, D.I. Musiienko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 1 44
Now analyze the model 2 connected with cognitive map G2 Tunnel 5
presented in Fig. 2. Vertices V2–V23 of the cognitive map 2G correspond to the
vertices of the cognitive map G1 shown in Table 1. Vertices V1, V24 for the
cognitive map G2 Tunnel 5 are added to the model 2 (Table 2).
F
ig
. 2
. S
us
ta
in
ab
le
c
og
ni
tiv
e
m
ap
“
T
un
ne
l 5
”
Study of the underground tunnel planning. Сognitive modelling
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 1 45
According to the adopted criterion [5]: the maximal modulo root of the graph re-
lation matrix characteristic equation is 0.99902M . The cognitive map also is
stable according to the initial value.
T a b l e 2 . The vertices of the hierarchical cognitive map G2 Tunnel 5
Code Name of the vertex Assignment of the vertex
V1 State of the Tunnel 5 Indicative
V24 Flooding Perturbing
An analysis of the ratio of the number of stabilizing cycles (15 negative
feedbacks) and process accelerator cycles (3 positive feedbacks) indicates the
structural stability of such a system [5].
NUMERICAL INVESTIGATIONS. IMPULSE MODELING
Involving impulse modeling, is investigated the planning reliability of the tunnels
in question under different types of impacts on them. Figs. 4–9 show the distribu-
tion of pulse processes for the three scenarios.
Scenario 1. Let’s conduct a study for Tunnel 1 and Tunnel 5. Assume to the
vertex V2.1 — The Evil Mind: Fighting, Terrorism the control action is intro-
duced ) , 1, , 0 (
1.21
VV qqQ . Figs. 3 and 4 show the distribution of pulse
processes for the Tunnel 1 and Tunnel 5.
The first scenario is needed to analyze the consequences of strong explosions
directed at the tunnel. Based on the simulation results, it can be concluded that
Tunnel 1 is more resistant to threats associated with a clear intention, namely ter-
rorist acts and hostilities. This is primarily due to the underwater dislocation of
Fig. 3. The distribution of pulse processes for the Tunnel 1 (Scenario 1)
N.D. Pankratova, D.I. Musiienko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 1 46
Tunnel 5. A large explosion could cause the tunnel to flood, resulting in a larger
impact than the same scenario in the case of Tunnel 1.
Scenario 2. Assume to the vertex V4.1 – Shifts the control action is intro-
duced ) , 1, , 0 (
1.41
VV qqQ . Figs. 5 and 6 show the distribution of pulse
processes for the Tunnel 1 and Tunnel 5.
This scenario is needed to analyze the impact of natural factors on each tun-
nel. As in the previous scenario, Tunnel 1 turned out to be more stable. The rea-
Fig. 4. The distribution of pulse processes for the Tunnel 5 (Scenario 1)
Fig. 5. The distribution of pulse processes for the Tunnel 1 (Scenario 2)
Study of the underground tunnel planning. Сognitive modelling
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2023, № 1 47
son still remains the possibility of tunnel flooding due to hard rock shear, which
significantly affects the performance of the tunnel.
Scenario 3. Assume to the vertex V3 – Technogenic events, the control
action is introduced ) , 1, , 0 (
31
VV qqQ . Figs. 7 and 8 show the distri-
bution of pulse processes for the Tunnel 1 and Tunnel 5.
The distribution of pulse processes for the Tunnel 5 (Scenario 3) is shown in
Fig. 8. This scenario demonstrates the resilience of tunnels to industrial threats. In
Fig. 6. The distribution of pulse processes for the Tunnel 5 (Scenario 2)
Fig. 7. The distribution of pulse processes for the Tunnel 1 (Scenario 3)
N.D. Pankratova, D.I. Musiienko
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2023, № 1 48
contrast to the previous scenarios, the numerical differences between the results
obtained are not so significant. This may indicate the similarity of tunnels to industrial
threats. However, Tunnel 1 still showed greater resilience to such scenarios.
CONCLUSION
Modeling of scenarios of possible processes of events development in the ana-
lyzed types of underground tunnels is carried out under the influence of various
external disturbances and control impulse influences. The results of the conducted
cognitive modeling make it possible to judge that cognitive models that systema-
tize and structure different information about the tunnel underground construction
system correspond to the real system and can be used to anticipate possible
processes of development of situations in the system under the influence of various
disturbing and controlling factors. The developed author's software complex al-
lows in the process of pulse modeling and analysis of the obtained results to in-
troduce controlling or excitatory influences at any stage of modeling. This allows
changing (correcting) scenarios in the dynamics of model creation, determining
effects that bring processes closer to the desired ones. The developed system ap-
proach is applied to the study of planning reliability of underground tunnels
of different types in order to choose reasonable scenarios for their future de-
velopment.
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INFORMATION ON THE ARTICLE
Nataliya D. Pankratova, ORCID: 0000-0002-6372-5813, Educational and Scientific
Institute for Applied System Analysis of the National Technical University of Ukraine
“Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Ukraine, e-mail: natalidmp@gmail.com
Danylo I. Musiienko, Educational and Scientific Institute for Applied System Analysis of
the National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”,
Ukraine
ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ПЛАНУВАННЯ ПІДЗЕМНИХ ТУНЕЛІВ. КОГНІТИВНЕ
МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ / Н.Д. Панкратова, Д.І. Мусієнко
Анотація. Запропоновано дослідження надійності планування підземних ту-
нелів для мегаполісів на основі використання методологій форсайту та когні-
тивного моделювання. Методологія форсайту дозволяє за допомогою проце-
дур експертного оцінювання виявити критичні технології та побудувати
альтернативи сценаріїв з кількісними характеристиками. Для обґрунтованої
реалізації того чи іншого сценарію використовується когнітивне моделювання,
яке дає змогу побудувати причинно-наслідкові зв’язки на основі знань та до-
свіду, зрозуміти та проаналізувати поведінку складної системи на стратегічну
перспективу з великою кількістю взаємозв’язків та взаємозалежностей. Запро-
поноване дослідження дозволяє планувати надійність підземних тунелів на ос-
нові вибору обґрунтованих сценаріїв та обґрунтування пріоритетності їх ство-
рення.
Ключові слова: когнітивне, імпульсне моделювання, планування, сценарії,
підземні тунелі.
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| id | journaliasakpiua-article-279748 |
| institution | System research and information technologies |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T10:28:07Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | journaliasakpiua/a7/7882cbcb144ea78ce1cbaf60359777a7.pdf |
| spelling | journaliasakpiua-article-2797482023-05-24T21:28:17Z Study of the underground tunnel planning. Cognitive modelling Дослідження планування підземних тунелів. Когнітивне моделювання Pankratova, Nataliya Musiienko, Danylo когнітивне імпульсне моделювання планування сценарії підземні тунелі cognitive impulse modelling planning scenarios underground tunnel A study of the underground tunnel planning reliability for megacities is proposed based on the use of foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Using the foresight methodology allows, with the help of expert estimation procedures, to identify critical technologies and build alternatives of scenarios with quantitative characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, cognitive modeling is used, which allows to build causal relationships based on knowledge and experience, understand and analyze the behavior of a complex system for a strategic perspective with a large number of interconnections and interdependencies. The suggested study allows the reliability planning of underground tunnels on the basis of reasonable scenarios selection and justification of their creation priority. Запропоновано дослідження надійності планування підземних тунелів для мегаполісів на основі використання методологій форсайту та когнітивного моделювання. Методологія форсайту дозволяє за допомогою процедур експертного оцінювання виявити критичні технології та побудувати альтернативи сценаріїв з кількісними характеристиками. Для обґрунтованої реалізації того чи іншого сценарію використовується когнітивне моделювання, яке дає змогу побудувати причинно-наслідкові зв’язки на основі знань та досвіду, зрозуміти та проаналізувати поведінку складної системи на стратегічну перспективу з великою кількістю взаємозв’язків та взаємозалежностей. Запропоноване дослідження дозволяє планувати надійність підземних тунелів на основі вибору обґрунтованих сценаріїв та обґрунтування пріоритетності їх створення. The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2023-03-30 Article Article application/pdf https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/279748 10.20535/SRIT.2308-8893.2023.1.03 System research and information technologies; No. 1 (2023); 37-50 Системные исследования и информационные технологии; № 1 (2023); 37-50 Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології; № 1 (2023); 37-50 2308-8893 1681-6048 en https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/279748/274348 |
| spellingShingle | когнітивне імпульсне моделювання планування сценарії підземні тунелі Pankratova, Nataliya Musiienko, Danylo Дослідження планування підземних тунелів. Когнітивне моделювання |
| title | Дослідження планування підземних тунелів. Когнітивне моделювання |
| title_alt | Study of the underground tunnel planning. Cognitive modelling |
| title_full | Дослідження планування підземних тунелів. Когнітивне моделювання |
| title_fullStr | Дослідження планування підземних тунелів. Когнітивне моделювання |
| title_full_unstemmed | Дослідження планування підземних тунелів. Когнітивне моделювання |
| title_short | Дослідження планування підземних тунелів. Когнітивне моделювання |
| title_sort | дослідження планування підземних тунелів. когнітивне моделювання |
| topic | когнітивне імпульсне моделювання планування сценарії підземні тунелі |
| topic_facet | когнітивне імпульсне моделювання планування сценарії підземні тунелі cognitive impulse modelling planning scenarios underground tunnel |
| url | https://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/279748 |
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