Логіко-імовірнісна оцінка ризику збитків від аварійного виливу води з басейну добового регулювання Зарамагської ГЕС-1

The results of assessment of risk of damages due to fail water pouring out the daily regulation basin of the Zaramagskaya HPP-1 which is under construction in Russia on the river Ardon are given. Three possible scenarios for emergency spills water from the pool with different expected losses are con...

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Збережено в:
Бібліографічні деталі
Дата:2013
Автори: Stefanyshyn, D. V., Romanchuk, K. G.
Формат: Стаття
Мова:Ukrainian
Опубліковано: The National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" 2013
Онлайн доступ:http://journal.iasa.kpi.ua/article/view/44155
Теги: Додати тег
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Назва журналу:System research and information technologies

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System research and information technologies
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Резюме:The results of assessment of risk of damages due to fail water pouring out the daily regulation basin of the Zaramagskaya HPP-1 which is under construction in Russia on the river Ardon are given. Three possible scenarios for emergency spills water from the pool with different expected losses are considered. The logic-probabilistic fault tree method and statistical and experimental data on failures and malfunctions of equipment and damage of hydraulic structures in service were used in assessment of the accident probability. Assessment of overall risk of damages of the accident was carried out in the frame of classical risk model as a product of damage and its probability using Bayesian probability transformation. As a result of studies the most risky scenario of the possible accident that should be taken into account while designing measures to improve the safety of hydraulic structures of the hydro power plant is found.