About phenomenological models and seismic prediction: is pessimism justified, are hopes based
Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined — the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system — and multifactor way of undergo of external...
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| Datum: | 2013 |
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| 1. Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | Russisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine
2013
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| Online Zugang: | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/111338 |
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| Назва журналу: | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
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Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal| Zusammenfassung: | Some problems and methods of modeling and seismic activity forecast are considered. Attention is concentrated on phenomenological approach. Ontological complexity of the real geomedium studies is underlined — the open nonlinear dissipative dynamic system — and multifactor way of undergo of external physical fields. Recital is based on the fact that selforganized critical systems are slightly chaotic ones. It is sufficient that in contrast to completely chaotic ones such systems are in principle relatively longterm predictable. It brings to the solution of the problem definite perspectives, and to the analysis of temporal sets (observed ones) having fractal structure — important details. |
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