On forecast and predictability of seismic process
Special features of evolution of geo-medium, which has a quality of self-organized criticality, problems of physics of destruction in the earth's crust, predictability and forecast of seismic process dynamics are being discussed based on the ideas and methods of nonlinear dynamics. It is mentio...
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| Дата: | 2014 |
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| Автор: | |
| Формат: | Стаття |
| Мова: | Російська |
| Опубліковано: |
S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine
2014
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| Теми: | |
| Онлайн доступ: | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116053 |
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| Назва журналу: | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
Репозитарії
Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal| _version_ | 1856543199801114624 |
|---|---|
| author | Shuman, V. |
| author_facet | Shuman, V. |
| author_sort | Shuman, V. |
| baseUrl_str | |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2020-10-07T11:57:19Z |
| description | Special features of evolution of geo-medium, which has a quality of self-organized criticality, problems of physics of destruction in the earth's crust, predictability and forecast of seismic process dynamics are being discussed based on the ideas and methods of nonlinear dynamics. It is mentioned that the key problems of multileveled self organization and taking into account nonlinearity of hierarchically organized geo-systems are still weakly elaborated and need con-cretization. Attention is accentuated on some aspects of formation of focal zones of destruction in the earth's crust, the stage of pre-destruction and super-fast catastrophic stage of evolution. Regimes of excitation of autostructures in geo-medium, problems of repeatability of large-scale ruptures are considered. An attempt of interpretation of strong seismic event as an autostructure (autosoliton) of great amplitude or localized dissipative structure of sharpening, which are formed in geomedium in case of strict regime of its excitation as a part of the single seismic process. A set of problems is considered related to principal predictability of the process, quality of intermittence, synchronization, phenomenon of stochastic resonance, problems of dynamic description of nonlinear systems with chaotic behavior according to the data of monitoring observations. It is mentioned that the presence of a regime of sharpening of the process (pre-destruction phase) can be considered as a physical-mechanical basis of existence, manifestation and search of foreshock phenomena. From this viewpoint the problem of strong earthquakes forecast does not look like hopeless and gives reason for optimism. |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T11:06:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-116053 |
| institution | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T11:06:19Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-1160532020-10-07T11:57:19Z On forecast and predictability of seismic process Shuman, V. seismicity spontaneous fluctuations dynamics dynamical systems auto synchronization of oscillations Special features of evolution of geo-medium, which has a quality of self-organized criticality, problems of physics of destruction in the earth's crust, predictability and forecast of seismic process dynamics are being discussed based on the ideas and methods of nonlinear dynamics. It is mentioned that the key problems of multileveled self organization and taking into account nonlinearity of hierarchically organized geo-systems are still weakly elaborated and need con-cretization. Attention is accentuated on some aspects of formation of focal zones of destruction in the earth's crust, the stage of pre-destruction and super-fast catastrophic stage of evolution. Regimes of excitation of autostructures in geo-medium, problems of repeatability of large-scale ruptures are considered. An attempt of interpretation of strong seismic event as an autostructure (autosoliton) of great amplitude or localized dissipative structure of sharpening, which are formed in geomedium in case of strict regime of its excitation as a part of the single seismic process. A set of problems is considered related to principal predictability of the process, quality of intermittence, synchronization, phenomenon of stochastic resonance, problems of dynamic description of nonlinear systems with chaotic behavior according to the data of monitoring observations. It is mentioned that the presence of a regime of sharpening of the process (pre-destruction phase) can be considered as a physical-mechanical basis of existence, manifestation and search of foreshock phenomena. From this viewpoint the problem of strong earthquakes forecast does not look like hopeless and gives reason for optimism. S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine 2014-06-01 Article Article application/pdf https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116053 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v36i3.2014.116053 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal; Vol. 36 No. 3 (2014); 48-71 Геофизический журнал; Том 36 № 3 (2014); 48-71 Геофізичний журнал; Том 36 № 3 (2014); 48-71 2524-1052 0203-3100 ru https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116053/110156 Copyright (c) 2020 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | seismicity spontaneous fluctuations dynamics dynamical systems auto synchronization of oscillations Shuman, V. On forecast and predictability of seismic process |
| title | On forecast and predictability of seismic process |
| title_full | On forecast and predictability of seismic process |
| title_fullStr | On forecast and predictability of seismic process |
| title_full_unstemmed | On forecast and predictability of seismic process |
| title_short | On forecast and predictability of seismic process |
| title_sort | on forecast and predictability of seismic process |
| topic | seismicity spontaneous fluctuations dynamics dynamical systems auto synchronization of oscillations |
| topic_facet | seismicity spontaneous fluctuations dynamics dynamical systems auto synchronization of oscillations |
| url | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116053 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shumanv onforecastandpredictabilityofseismicprocess |