Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century.
For the first time quantitative characteristics of probable climate changes in Ukraine during the 21st century for three SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been obtained from an analysis of 84 runs of 10 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) used for AR4 IPCC-2007. The analysi...
Saved in:
| Date: | 2011 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Ukrainian |
| Published: |
S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine
2011
|
| Online Access: | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116794 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Journal Title: | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
Institution
Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal| _version_ | 1856543300117331968 |
|---|---|
| author | Krakovska, S. V. Palamarchuk, L. V. Shedenenko, I. P. Dukel, G. O. Gnatyuk, N. V. |
| author_facet | Krakovska, S. V. Palamarchuk, L. V. Shedenenko, I. P. Dukel, G. O. Gnatyuk, N. V. |
| author_sort | Krakovska, S. V. |
| baseUrl_str | |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2020-10-07T11:02:57Z |
| description | For the first time quantitative characteristics of probable climate changes in Ukraine during the 21st century for three SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been obtained from an analysis of 84 runs of 10 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) used for AR4 IPCC-2007. The analysis of AOGCM’s results has shown that projected differences of the averaged over the territory of Ukraine surface temperatures of the ending and the first decades of the 21st century will be in limits: B1 - from 0,7 to 3,0 °С with ensemble mean 2,0±0,8 °С; А1В - from 2,4 to 4,2 °С with mean 3,1±0,7 °С; and А2 - from 2,6 to 4,6 °С with mean 3,8±0,8 °С. There is not such an agreement for precipitation variations during the 21st century between AOGCMs, and precipita-tion changes vary from -23,4 to +11,6 % up to the end of the 21st century comparing to 2001-2010. Therefore, more detailed precipitation change projections for the territory of Ukraine could be made only with regional climate models. The most rapid changes of surface temperature and precipita-tion have been obtained in AOGCMs for А2 scenario, the slowest - for В1 respectively. The model ECHAM5/MPI-OM has been determined as the most successful AOGCM in simulation of climate of Ukraine because statistical analysis has shown that differences of its results with ensemble mean were minimal. Results of this model could be recommended as initial and boundary conditions for simulation of climate of Ukraine with regional climate models. |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T11:07:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-116794 |
| institution | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
| language | Ukrainian |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T11:07:55Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-1167942020-10-07T11:02:57Z Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century. Krakovska, S. V. Palamarchuk, L. V. Shedenenko, I. P. Dukel, G. O. Gnatyuk, N. V. For the first time quantitative characteristics of probable climate changes in Ukraine during the 21st century for three SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been obtained from an analysis of 84 runs of 10 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) used for AR4 IPCC-2007. The analysis of AOGCM’s results has shown that projected differences of the averaged over the territory of Ukraine surface temperatures of the ending and the first decades of the 21st century will be in limits: B1 - from 0,7 to 3,0 °С with ensemble mean 2,0±0,8 °С; А1В - from 2,4 to 4,2 °С with mean 3,1±0,7 °С; and А2 - from 2,6 to 4,6 °С with mean 3,8±0,8 °С. There is not such an agreement for precipitation variations during the 21st century between AOGCMs, and precipita-tion changes vary from -23,4 to +11,6 % up to the end of the 21st century comparing to 2001-2010. Therefore, more detailed precipitation change projections for the territory of Ukraine could be made only with regional climate models. The most rapid changes of surface temperature and precipita-tion have been obtained in AOGCMs for А2 scenario, the slowest - for В1 respectively. The model ECHAM5/MPI-OM has been determined as the most successful AOGCM in simulation of climate of Ukraine because statistical analysis has shown that differences of its results with ensemble mean were minimal. Results of this model could be recommended as initial and boundary conditions for simulation of climate of Ukraine with regional climate models. S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine 2011-12-01 Article Article application/pdf https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116794 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v33i6.2011.116794 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal; Vol. 33 No. 6 (2011); 68-81 Геофизический журнал; Том 33 № 6 (2011); 68-81 Геофізичний журнал; Том 33 № 6 (2011); 68-81 2524-1052 0203-3100 uk https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116794/110853 Copyright (c) 2020 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Krakovska, S. V. Palamarchuk, L. V. Shedenenko, I. P. Dukel, G. O. Gnatyuk, N. V. Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century. |
| title | Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century. |
| title_full | Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century. |
| title_fullStr | Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century. |
| title_short | Models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of Ukraine in the 21st century. |
| title_sort | models of general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans in forecasting changes in the regional climate of ukraine in the 21st century. |
| url | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/116794 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT krakovskasv modelsofgeneralcirculationoftheatmosphereandoceansinforecastingchangesintheregionalclimateofukraineinthe21stcentury AT palamarchuklv modelsofgeneralcirculationoftheatmosphereandoceansinforecastingchangesintheregionalclimateofukraineinthe21stcentury AT shedenenkoip modelsofgeneralcirculationoftheatmosphereandoceansinforecastingchangesintheregionalclimateofukraineinthe21stcentury AT dukelgo modelsofgeneralcirculationoftheatmosphereandoceansinforecastingchangesintheregionalclimateofukraineinthe21stcentury AT gnatyuknv modelsofgeneralcirculationoftheatmosphereandoceansinforecastingchangesintheregionalclimateofukraineinthe21stcentury |