Coronavirus scent
It is shown that epidemic dynamics and total number of people with a viral disease in a closed community critically depend on the duration of the period of virus contagiousness. The time that an infected person remains infectious is limited either by his/her isolation or by a natural decrease in vir...
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| Datum: | 2020 |
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| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | Russisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine
2020
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| Online Zugang: | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/215368 |
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| Назва журналу: | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
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Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal| _version_ | 1856543465976889344 |
|---|---|
| author | Khazan, Yakov |
| author_facet | Khazan, Yakov |
| author_sort | Khazan, Yakov |
| baseUrl_str | |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2021-01-21T10:42:21Z |
| description | It is shown that epidemic dynamics and total number of people with a viral disease in a closed community critically depend on the duration of the period of virus contagiousness. The time that an infected person remains infectious is limited either by his/her isolation or by a natural decrease in virus activity. From laboratory data on changes in virus COVID-19 activity over time and on the basis of studying the epidemic dynamics in various communities, it follows that if the isolation of an infected person is not effectively used to combat the epidemic, then the individual, on average, remains contagious for 9—10 days after being infected. Modeling shows that in this case approximately 15 % of the closed community population will be finally infected (including asymptomatic cases). Since only about 20 % of those infected go to the doctor and are registered in the statistics, it should be expected that the number of registered cases would be about 3 % of the population. Currently, only Israel has reached this threshold. |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T11:11:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-215368 |
| institution | Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T11:11:41Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-2153682021-01-21T10:42:21Z Coronavirus scent Коронавирусное благоуханье Коронавірусні пахощі Khazan, Yakov COVID-19 contagiousness period epidemic dynamics It is shown that epidemic dynamics and total number of people with a viral disease in a closed community critically depend on the duration of the period of virus contagiousness. The time that an infected person remains infectious is limited either by his/her isolation or by a natural decrease in virus activity. From laboratory data on changes in virus COVID-19 activity over time and on the basis of studying the epidemic dynamics in various communities, it follows that if the isolation of an infected person is not effectively used to combat the epidemic, then the individual, on average, remains contagious for 9—10 days after being infected. Modeling shows that in this case approximately 15 % of the closed community population will be finally infected (including asymptomatic cases). Since only about 20 % of those infected go to the doctor and are registered in the statistics, it should be expected that the number of registered cases would be about 3 % of the population. Currently, only Israel has reached this threshold. S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine 2020-11-02 Article Article application/pdf https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/215368 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v42i5.2020.215368 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal; Vol. 42 No. 5 (2020); 233-248 Геофизический журнал; Том 42 № 5 (2020); 233-248 Геофізичний журнал; Том 42 № 5 (2020); 233-248 2524-1052 0203-3100 ru https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/215368/216064 Copyright (c) 2020 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | COVID-19 contagiousness period epidemic dynamics Khazan, Yakov Coronavirus scent |
| title | Coronavirus scent |
| title_alt | Коронавирусное благоуханье Коронавірусні пахощі |
| title_full | Coronavirus scent |
| title_fullStr | Coronavirus scent |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coronavirus scent |
| title_short | Coronavirus scent |
| title_sort | coronavirus scent |
| topic | COVID-19 contagiousness period epidemic dynamics |
| topic_facet | COVID-19 contagiousness period epidemic dynamics |
| url | https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/215368 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT khazanyakov coronavirusscent AT khazanyakov koronavirusnoeblagouhanʹe AT khazanyakov koronavírusnípahoŝí |