On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors

Some details and special features are under considerations of undertaken experimental and theoretical studies related to prognosticated ability and forecast of geo-systems dynamics which were paid not enough attention but, possibly, might have crucial importance for definition of future studies in t...

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Datum:2016
1. Verfasser: Shuman, V.N.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:Russisch
Veröffentlicht: S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine 2016
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Online Zugang:https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/91469
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Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal
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author Shuman, V.N.
author_facet Shuman, V.N.
author_sort Shuman, V.N.
baseUrl_str
collection OJS
datestamp_date 2020-10-07T11:18:21Z
description Some details and special features are under considerations of undertaken experimental and theoretical studies related to prognosticated ability and forecast of geo-systems dynamics which were paid not enough attention but, possibly, might have crucial importance for definition of future studies in this area. According to the ideas of nonlinear dynamics of spatial-temporal processes and systems new capabilities and new approaches to their solutions are being discussed. Crucial dynamic objects of such an approach are meta-stability and steady transitions, and, in addition, to metastable images in phase spaces of the system do not respond the attractors but transitional sets of paths. Active role of geo-medium and its specific dynamic conditions generated by cooperative behavior of its elements and subsystems is underlined. More appropriate definition is formed of seismic process and possible mechanisms of generation of spontaneous emissions of different character, associated with transitional dissipation, more justified from both their physical interpretation and simulation. On this base and taking into account overall criteria, which guarantee the emergence of critical dynamics and discovered lately new nonlinear dynamic regimes in spread active (excited) systems actual problems are discussed of diagnostics and prognostication capability of geosystems, special role and the influence of noises of different character on the active structured geosystems admitting self-organized critical behavior and processes of formation exponential spectra of capacity is noticed. In addition, standing apart of widely declared theses of 70-80 th of last century, and unlike the strange-attractor approach, the basic attention is paid to effects of noises and fluctuations upon large-scale dynamics of geosystems. As a result the problem of local forecast in up-to-date definition may be considered as a study of a response of active (excitable) structured geomedium on multifrequency spontaneous fluctuations and external actions. Attention is paid to some special features and essential factors of formation of focal zones and evolution processes, known from observations and solutions of basal equations of nonlinear dynamics. Strong relation of spontaneous emissions of lithosphere with dynamics of auto-structures and their complexes is underlined. In addition, blocky-hierarchic heterogeneous structure of lithosphere determines not only spatial characteristics of the fields of spontaneous emissions but also, to significant extent, their temporal and energetic characteristics.
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spelling journalsuranua-geofizicheskiy-article-914692020-10-07T11:18:21Z On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors Shuman, V.N. dynamic systems seismicity spontaneous emissions prognostication ability of geosystems seismoelectromagnetism transitional processes autostructures systems with noise Some details and special features are under considerations of undertaken experimental and theoretical studies related to prognosticated ability and forecast of geo-systems dynamics which were paid not enough attention but, possibly, might have crucial importance for definition of future studies in this area. According to the ideas of nonlinear dynamics of spatial-temporal processes and systems new capabilities and new approaches to their solutions are being discussed. Crucial dynamic objects of such an approach are meta-stability and steady transitions, and, in addition, to metastable images in phase spaces of the system do not respond the attractors but transitional sets of paths. Active role of geo-medium and its specific dynamic conditions generated by cooperative behavior of its elements and subsystems is underlined. More appropriate definition is formed of seismic process and possible mechanisms of generation of spontaneous emissions of different character, associated with transitional dissipation, more justified from both their physical interpretation and simulation. On this base and taking into account overall criteria, which guarantee the emergence of critical dynamics and discovered lately new nonlinear dynamic regimes in spread active (excited) systems actual problems are discussed of diagnostics and prognostication capability of geosystems, special role and the influence of noises of different character on the active structured geosystems admitting self-organized critical behavior and processes of formation exponential spectra of capacity is noticed. In addition, standing apart of widely declared theses of 70-80 th of last century, and unlike the strange-attractor approach, the basic attention is paid to effects of noises and fluctuations upon large-scale dynamics of geosystems. As a result the problem of local forecast in up-to-date definition may be considered as a study of a response of active (excitable) structured geomedium on multifrequency spontaneous fluctuations and external actions. Attention is paid to some special features and essential factors of formation of focal zones and evolution processes, known from observations and solutions of basal equations of nonlinear dynamics. Strong relation of spontaneous emissions of lithosphere with dynamics of auto-structures and their complexes is underlined. In addition, blocky-hierarchic heterogeneous structure of lithosphere determines not only spatial characteristics of the fields of spontaneous emissions but also, to significant extent, their temporal and energetic characteristics. S. Subbotin Institute of Geophysics of the NAS of Ukraine 2016-12-01 Article Article application/pdf https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/91469 10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v38i6.2016.91469 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal; Vol. 38 No. 6 (2016); 3-24 Геофизический журнал; Том 38 № 6 (2016); 3-24 Геофізичний журнал; Том 38 № 6 (2016); 3-24 2524-1052 0203-3100 ru https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/91469/87190 Copyright (c) 2020 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
spellingShingle dynamic systems
seismicity
spontaneous emissions
prognostication ability of geosystems
seismoelectromagnetism
transitional processes
autostructures
systems with noise
Shuman, V.N.
On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
title On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
title_full On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
title_fullStr On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
title_full_unstemmed On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
title_short On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
title_sort on prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
topic dynamic systems
seismicity
spontaneous emissions
prognostication ability of geosystems
seismoelectromagnetism
transitional processes
autostructures
systems with noise
topic_facet dynamic systems
seismicity
spontaneous emissions
prognostication ability of geosystems
seismoelectromagnetism
transitional processes
autostructures
systems with noise
url https://journals.uran.ua/geofizicheskiy/article/view/91469
work_keys_str_mv AT shumanvn onprognosticationabilityofactivegeosystemsmetastabilityandsteadytransitionsinsteadofattractors