Математичне моделювання сценаріїв водообміну в системі каналу Дніпро-Донбас

• Дата: 2018
• Автори: Ковальчук, Павло Іванович, Рожко, Вікторія Ісламівна, Балихіна, Ганна Андріївна, Демчук, Олена Станіславівна
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Ukrainian
• Опубліковано: Kamianets-Podilskyi National Ivan Ohiienko University 2018
• Онлайн доступ: http://mcm-tech.kpnu.edu.ua/article/view/140027
• Назва журналу: Mathematical and computer modelling. Series: Technical sciences

The mathematical modeling of water-exchange scenarios in the Dnipro-Donbass channel system is proposed. The channel is filled with Dnipro water from the Kamensky reservoir in order to improve the conditions of the Krasnopavliv reservoir, from which the water is supplied for Kharkiv city drinking needs. The task of choosing the most cost-effective variant of water exchange is determined, while providing a good ecological state of water resources in the Orilske and Krasnopavliv reservoirs. The method of scenario analysis is proposed for selecting the structure of the water management system. An approach is considered, as a result of which the criterion of water resources saving should be directed to the maximum value. The water quality criterion is considered as a limitation according to the current standards.Neural networks are used for ecosystem assessment of water quality in the channel system. System spatial-temporal analysis of water quality by ensemble of neurons of the perceptron type allows to compare the changes of water quality in the channel by separate indicators and groups of indicators. It gives the opportunity to find the most promising options for decision making. The balance models of water exchange, based on the equations of dynamics and preservation of the masses of pollutants, are proposed. Initially, the water flows are calculated, and then the concentration of pollutants as a result of mixing. The mathematical modeling provides the opportunity to monitor daily changes in hydrological and hydrochemical parameters in reservoirs at different variants of water exchange, processes of transportation and mixing of water mass of different quality in the Orilsky and Krasnopavliv reservoirs. The scenario options are defined the day onset of the planned result of water quality and duration of water exchange. According to the results of the scenario analysis, the most economically feasible and at the same time environmentally safe is the option to exclude the drain and filling of the Orilsky reservoir. In this embodiment, the duration of water exchange is reduced to 45 days, no irreversible discharges of water are carried out and only a 5.6% increase in rigidity in the Krasnopavliv reservoir during the first 12 days.