Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels
Changes in climate variability and extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially in the last two-three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under di...
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2006
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| Cite this: | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels / Z. Zlatev // Проблеми програмування. — 2006. — N 2-3. — С. 659-663. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ. |
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| citation_txt | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels / Z. Zlatev // Проблеми програмування. — 2006. — N 2-3. — С. 659-663. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ. |
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| description | Changes in climate variability and extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially in the last two-three decades of the
20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have
been made under different assumptions. The following two topics are discussed:
· of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the 21st century (taken from Houghton et al., 2001)
and
· the impact of these changes on the pollution levels in different parts of Europe.
|
| first_indexed | 2025-11-28T09:45:16Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
Прикладне програмне забезпечення
© K. Georgiev, E. Donev, 2006
ISSN 1727-4907. Проблеми програмування. 2006. №2-3. Спеціальний випуск 659
UDC 004.75
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES IN EUROPE
ON EUROPEAN POLLUTION LEVELS
Zahari Zlatev
National Environmental Research Institute, Department of Atmospheric Environment,
Frederiksborgvej 399, P. O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark.
Changes in climate variability and extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially in the last two-three decades of the
20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have
been made under different assumptions. The following two topics are discussed:
• of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the 21st century (taken from Houghton et al., 2001)
and
• the impact of these changes on the pollution levels in different parts of Europe.
1. Predictions for increased temperature levels in Europe
Several scenarios, called SRES, are discussed in (Houghton et al., 2001). We chose to follow the SRES A2
scenario. Resulting from it changes of the temperature in Europe are shown in Fig. 1.
Fig. 1. Changes of the temperature in Europe according to one of the scenarios in Houghton et al. (2001)
2. Choice of scenarios
The Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), see Dimov et al. (2004), Havasi and Zlatev (2002) and
Zlatev(1995), has been run with many scenarios for a period of 16 years (from 1989 to 2004) on a fine resolution grid
(10 km x 10 km surface cells) over a space domain covering the whole of Europe together with parts of Asia, Africa and
the Atlantic Ocean. A list of the applied scenarios is given in Table 1. All these scenarios were run on powerful parallel
computers at the Danish Centre for Scientific Computing. Some of the runs on these computers are discussed in
Alexandrov et al. (2004) and Dimov et al. (2004).
The predicted, by the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, annual changes of the temperature, see Fig. 1, were used to
produce scenario Climate 1. The extreme cases will become even stronger in the future climate; see Table 9.6 on p. 575
in (Houghton et al., 2001). It is expected that: (i) there will be higher maximum temperatures and more hot days in the
land areas, (ii) there will be higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and fewer frost days in nearly all land areas
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and (iii) the diurnal temperature range will be reduced over land areas. These recommendations were taken into account
in the preparation of scenario Climate 2.
It is also expected, see Table 9.6 on p. 575 in (Houghton et al., 2001), that: (i) there will be more intense
precipitation events and (ii) there will be increased summer drying and associated risk of drought. These
recommendations were taken into account in the preparation of scenario Climate 3. Scenarios Constant Meteorology
and Constant Emissions were prepared in order to explain the necessity to run the model over a long time-period. The
trend of reducing the annual means of the concentrations of most of the studied species in the period 1989-2004 is
preserved when the meteorological conditions are kept constant, however, the variability of the concentrations, from
one year to another, is lost. The variability of the annual means of the concentrations, from one year to another, is
preserved when the emissions are kept constant, but the trend of reduction is lost.
The last six scenarios in Table 1 are emission scenarios. These are mainly used to demonstrate the fact that the
relative part of the biogenic emissions is increased and this should be taken into account in large climatic studies.
Only a few results from some of the scenarios (Basic, Climate 1, Climate 2 and Climate 4) will be reported in
this paper.
Table 1. Different scenarios run in connection with the climatic studies
Scenario Meteorology Anthropogenic emissions Biogenic emissions
Basic EMEP and NERI EMEP and NERI Basic
Constant meteorology Meteorology for 1989 as in the Basic Scenario as in the Basic Scenario
Constant emissions as in the Basic Scenario Emissions for 1989 as in the Basic Scenario
Climate 1 Increased temperatures as
predicted in SRES A2
as in the Basic Scenario as in the Basic Scenario
Climate 2 as in Climate 1 + diurnal and
seasonal variations
as in the Basic Scenario as in the Basic Scenario
Climate 3 as in Climate 2 + new
humidity and precipitation
as in the Basic Scenario as in the Basic Scenario
2010 as in the Basic Scenario Obtained by using IIASA factors;
Annan et al. (2001)
as in the Basic Scenario
MFR as in the Basic Scenario Obtained by using IIASA factors;
Annan et al. (2001)
as in the Basic Scenario
Climate 2010 as in Climate 3 as in Scenario 2010 as in the Basic Scenario
Climate MFR as in Climate 3 as in Scenario MFR as in the Basic Scenario
Biogenic 2010 as in Climate 3 as in Scenario 2010 Increased
Biogenic MFR as in Climate 3 as in Scenario MFR as in Biogenic 2010
Remarks related to the climatic scenarios given in Table 1:
1. Basic Biogenic emissions are produced by applying ideas proposed in Simpson et al. (1995) and Lübkert and
Schöpp (1989); see Geernaert and Zlatev (2004).
2. Increased Biogenic emissions are produced by applying ideas from Anastasi et al. (1991).
3. MFR refers to the IIASA scenario with Maximum Feasible Reductions of the anthropoggenic emissions; see
Amann at al. (2001).
3. Computational aspects
The performance of the computations, which are related to the scenarios given in Table 1, is a very difficult
task. The air pollution model used (UNI-DEM, see Section 1) is described mathematically with a system of partial
differential equations. After the application of suitable splitting procedures and the discretization of the spatial
derivatives, several huge systems of ordinary differential equations are to be treated at every time-step. Each of these
systems of ordinary differential equations consists of more than eight million equations. The number of time-steps is
greater than 200000. The total number of runs is equal to the product of the number of scenarios and the number of
years (i.e. about 200). It is clear that both powerful parallel computers and efficient software, by which the potential
power of the available computers can successfully be utilized, are needed. The development of such software is
discussed in detail in Alexandrov et al. (2004) and Dimov et al. (2003,2004). Therefore the computational aspects will
not be further discussed in this paper. However, it should be emphasized, once again, that it was possible to accomplish
the huge task of running the scenarios that are listed in Table 1 only because very efficient software was developed and
powerful computers were available.
4. Temporal results related to high ozone levels
High ozone levels might cause damages to crops, forest trees and human health. Therefore several critical
levels have been established in the European Union, see the Directive 2002/3EC in European Parliament (2002).
According to one of these critical levels, the 8-hour average values of the ozone concentrations should not exceed 60
ppb in more than 25 days (called also “bad days in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3).
The temporal variations of the numbers of days in which the limit of 60 ppb is exceeded at least in one period
of 8 hours is given in Fig. 2 for the Danish site Ulfborg. It is seen that
• the EU limit of 25 “bad days” is clearly exceeded in the beginning of the interval of 16 years, but gradually the
situation is improved (due to the reduction of the European anthropogenic emissions in the 90ies),
Прикладне програмне забезпечення
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• there is a clear annual variability of the number of “bad days”,
• at this Danish site, the climatic scenarios are producing more “bad days” than the Basic Scenario (but the difference
is not very big).
5. Spatial results related to high ozone levels
Results related to the distribution of the numbers of days in the space domain for year 1997 are given in Fig. 3.
It is seen that the following conclusions can be drawn from the results shown in Fig. 3.
• The numbers of “bad days” in a large part of Western Europe are not changed too much (the changes been between
100% and 120%). There are however, some exceptions; mainly in France and Spain.
• Scenario Climate 3 gives biggest increases of the numbers of “bad days” in the regions where the predicted by the
SRES A2 scenarios changes of temperatures are also biggest (compare the increases of the temperatures in Fig. 1
and the increases of the numbers of “bad days” in Fig.3).
Conclusions
The main conclusion is that the climatic scenarios are giving significant increase (by more than 60%) of the
number of “bad days” in some parts in Europe. This is unfortunate, because the increase of the “bad days” is expected
to have damaging effects on human health.
The uncertainties of the results from the computations with the scenarios shown in Table 1 should be carefully
analyzed. The uncertainties are mainly due to
• uncertainties in the input data (both the emission data and the meteorological data),
• uncertainties in the description of the physical and chemical processes in the model (the uncertainties of the
available descriptions of the chemical reactions being important),
• errors caused by the numerical algorithms and the splitting procedures
and also
• several other sources of uncertainties.
Fig. 2. Variation of the numbers of “bad days” (days in which the 8-hour average values of the ozone concentrations is
exceeding at least once the critical value of 60 ppb). The EU limit of 25 days is given by the blue dotted line. The results
are for the Basic Scenario and for three climatic scenarios.
Прикладне програмне забезпечення
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It is necessary to continue this study by taking into consideration:
• other critical levels
and
• the impact of the emission scenarios in Table 1 on the pollution levels.
Acknowledgement
This research was partly supported by the NATO Scientific Programme (Grant No. CLG 980505) and the
Danish Centre for Scientific Computing (Grant No. CPU-1002-27 and Grant No. CPU-1101-17).
Fig. 3 The distribution of the ratios of numbers of bad days for the scenario Climate 3 and the Basic Scenario for 1997.
The numbers are multiplied by 100 in order the get the changes in percent.
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1. Alexandrov, V. N., Owczarz, W., Thomsen, P. G. and Zlatev, Z. (2004): Parallel runs of a large air pollution model on a grid of Sun computers.
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 65: 557-577.
2. Amann, M., Bertok, I., Cofala, J., Gyarfas, F., Heyes, C., Klimont, Z., Makowski, M., Schöpp, W., and Syri, S. (1999): Cost-effective control of
acidification and ground-level ozone. Seventh Interim Report, International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg,
Austria.
3. Anastasi, C., Hopkinson, L. and Simpson, V. J. (1991): Natural hydrocarbon emissions in the United Kingdom. Atmospheric Environment, Vol.
25A, 1403-1408.
4. Dimov, I., Faragó, I. Zlatev, Z. (2003): “Parallel computations with large-scale air pollution models”, Problems in Programming, 5(3): 44-52.
5. I. Dimov, K. Georgiev, Tz. Ostromsky and Z. Zlatev (2004): “Computational challenges in the numerical treatment of large air pollution
models”, Ecological Modelling, 179: 187-203.
6. European Parliament (2002): Directive 2002/3/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 12 February 2002 relating to ozone in ambient
air. Official Journal of the European Communities, L67, 9.3.2002, pp. 14-30.
7. Geernaert G. and Zlatev, Z. (2004): Studying the influence of the biogenic emissions on the AOT49 levels in Europe, International Journal of
Environment and Pollution, Vol. 23, pp. 29-41.
8. Havasi, Á. and Zlatev, Z. (2002): Trends of Hungarian air pollution levels on a long time-scale, Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 36, pp. 4145-
4156.
9. Houghton J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson, eds., Climate Change 2001: The
Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge-New York-Melbourne-Madrid-Cape Town, 2001.
10. Lübkert, B. and Schöpp, W. (1989): The OECD-map emission inventory for 2SO , xNO and VOC in Western Europe, Report No.
WP-89-082, International Institute for Applied Systems and Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
11. Simpson, D, Guenther, A., Hewitt, C. N. and Steinbrecher, R. (1995): Biogenic emissions in Europe: I.Estimates and uncertainties, Journal of
Geophysical Research, 100 (1995) 22875-22890.
12. Zlatev, Z. (1995): Computer treatment of large air pollution models, Kluwer Academic
Publishers, Dordrecht-Boston-London.
|
| id | nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-1576 |
| institution | Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| issn | 1727-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-28T09:45:16Z |
| publishDate | 2006 |
| publisher | Інститут програмних систем НАН України |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | Zlatev, Z. 2008-08-26T13:21:13Z 2008-08-26T13:21:13Z 2006 Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels / Z. Zlatev // Проблеми програмування. — 2006. — N 2-3. — С. 659-663. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ. 1727-4907 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/1576 004.75 Changes in climate variability and extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially in the last two-three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under different assumptions. The following two topics are discussed: · of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the 21st century (taken from Houghton et al., 2001) and · the impact of these changes on the pollution levels in different parts of Europe. en Інститут програмних систем НАН України Прикладне програмне забезпечення Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels Article published earlier |
| spellingShingle | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels Zlatev, Z. Прикладне програмне забезпечення |
| title | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels |
| title_full | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels |
| title_short | Impact of climate changes in Europe on European pollution levels |
| title_sort | impact of climate changes in europe on european pollution levels |
| topic | Прикладне програмне забезпечення |
| topic_facet | Прикладне програмне забезпечення |
| url | https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/1576 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zlatevz impactofclimatechangesineuropeoneuropeanpollutionlevels |