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Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices

Objective of the study is an assessment of possible climate change in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1986 until the end of the 21st century projected by the RCMs’ ensemble. During the last decades Antarctica has undergone predominantly warming, with the highest rate of surface air temper...

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Опубліковано в: :Український антарктичний журнал
Дата:2019
Автори: Chyhareva, A., Krakovska, S., Pishniak, D.
Формат: Стаття
Мова:Англійська
Опубліковано: Національний антарктичний науковий центр МОН України 2019
Теми:
Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження
Онлайн доступ:https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/168329
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Цитувати:Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices / A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak // Український антарктичний журнал. — 2019. — № 2 (19). — С. 47-63. — Бібліогр.: 27 назв. — англ.

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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
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author Chyhareva, A.
Krakovska, S.
Pishniak, D.
author_facet Chyhareva, A.
Krakovska, S.
Pishniak, D.
citation_txt Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices / A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak // Український антарктичний журнал. — 2019. — № 2 (19). — С. 47-63. — Бібліогр.: 27 назв. — англ.
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container_title Український антарктичний журнал
description Objective of the study is an assessment of possible climate change in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1986 until the end of the 21st century projected by the RCMs’ ensemble. During the last decades Antarctica has undergone predominantly warming, with the highest rate of surface air temperature increase found over the Antarctic Peninsula, where the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station is located. There is a unique ecosystem in the region which is vulnerable and under the growing impact of a changing weather regime due to rapid climate changes with consequent changes in sea ice, land distribution under snow/ice, etc. Thus, an important task for the region is an estimation of climate change trends and definition of possible subregionalization. Мета дослідження — оцінка можливої зміни клімату в регіоні Антарктичного півострова до кінця 21 століття за проекціями ансамблю регіональних кліматичних моделей (РКМ). Впродовж останніх десятиліть на переважаючій території Антарктиди спостерігається потепління, воно найінтенсивніше для Антарктичного півострова, де знаходиться Українська антарктична станція «Академік Вернадський». У регіоні існує унікальна екосистема, яка є вразливою до зміни погодного режиму, що відбувається під впливом швидких змін клімату та їхніх наслідків, зокрема, зміни розподілу морського льоду та суші вкритої снігом / льодом тощо. Отже, для регіону важливим завданням є оцінка проекцій зміни клімату з визначенням окремих районів з подібними тенденціями.
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fulltext 47 Cite: Chyhareva A., Krakovska S., Pishniak D. Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal, 2019. № 2 (19), 47—63. UDС 551.582.2 A. Chyhareva 1, 2, *, S. Krakovska 1, 2, D. Pishniak 2 1 Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, State Service of Emergencies of Ukraine and National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 37 Nauky Ave., Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine 2 State Institution National Antarctic Scientific Center, Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, 16 Taras Shevchenko Blvd., Kyiv, 01601, Ukraine * Corresponding author: chyhareva@ukr.net Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices Abstract. Objective of the study is an assessment of possible climate change in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1986 until the end of the 21st century projected by the RCMs’ ensemble. During the last decades Antarctica has undergone pre- dominantly warming, with the highest rate of surface air temperature increase found over the Antarctic Peninsula, where the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station is located. There is a unique ecosystem in the region which is vulnerable and under the growing impact of a changing weather regime due to rapid climate changes with consequent changes in sea ice, land distribution under snow/ice, etc. Thus, an important task for the region is an estimation of climate change trends and definition of possible subregionalization. Data and methods. Data of two regional climate models HIRHAM5 and RACMO21P forced by two global climate models EC-EARTH and HadGEM from the Polar-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experi- ment - Arctic and Antarctic Domains) as part of the international CORDEX initiative were used in the study. Spatial distribution of the model output is 0.44°. Set of scripting codes developed by Climate4R project (An R Framework for Climate Data Access and Postprocessing) was modified in order to extract data for the Antarctic Peninsula region from the Antarctic domain and obtain climatological characteristics for individual RCMs and their ensemble mean. Projected changes in wet/dry climate indi- ces for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for two periods 2041—2060 and 2081—2100 were assessed with respect to the historical experiment 1986—2005. Results. An analysis of projected wet/dry climate indices for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is presented in Part II of the paper. An analysis of the cold temperature indices (FD, ID) is presented in Part I of the study. In the historical experiment Larsen Ice Shelf and leeward east coast are the regions with the lowest total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT, 200—300 mm) and simple daily intensity index (SDII, about 5 mm/day) with under 10 days of consecutive wet days (CWD) and up to 30 days consecutive dry days (CDD). In the cross of the 21st century, duration of dry spell is projected to shorten for the whole peninsula and for Akademik Vernadsky station by about 7—10% under the scenario RCP4.5 and 10—15% under the RCP8.5. Projected SDII changes are up to +20% till the end of the century under the scenario RCP8.5 at north-west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Conclusions. Over the Antarctic Peninsula region both scenarios project an average increase in total PRCPTOT and SDII; overall the maximum length of CWD is extended while the maximum length of the CDD is reduced. In combination with decreasing number of frost (FD) and ice (ID) days, the pattern of changes differs notably across the pen- insula. It is shown in the first part of the paper that over the Antarctic Peninsula region, both scenarios project an average de- crease in the cold season period. The most pronounced changes of ID and FD climate indices are for the Larsen Ice Sheet area. Analyzing results presented in both parts of the paper we can distinguish a few subregions with different projected changes in climate conditions based on obtained climate indices. Obtained results can be used for studies of the climate changes impact on ecosystems in the region and for the strategic planning of future activities (scientific, touristic, fishery, etc.). Keywords: Antarctic Peninsula, Akademik Vernadsky station, climate indices, regional climate model, Polar-CORDEX, RCP scenarios. ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження Hydro-Meteorological and Oceanographic Research 48 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19) A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak INTRODUCTION Antarctica is among the most important players in global climate. During the last decades it has under- gone predominantly warming, however, over the Antarctic continent it was not homogeneous, and the highest rate of surface air temperature increasing was found over the Antarctic Peninsula based on the sta- tion data of 1966—2000 (Marshall et al., 2006, Doran et al., 2002, Steig et al., 2009). The Antarctic Peninsula has a complex topography. Mountains are an essential part of it, including a lot of volcanoes on the nearby islands. The highest peaks in the Antarctic Peninsula mountain ridge are Mount Jackson (3 184 m) and Mount Hope (3 239 m). The- re are a lot of different types of glaciers in the region: from the smallest ice caps on islands to the large out- let glaciers forming ice shelves. Besides this, there is plenty of sea ice along the peninsula. All these types of ice respond differently to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. The biggest in the region Larsen Ice Shelf has collapsed a few times driven by both atmospheric and oceanic warming according to Marshall et al. (2006). Very recent study by Wille et al. (2019) has shown that the main trigger for melting in the West Antarctica can be attributed to the atmo- spheric rivers, bringing from lower latitudes warm airmass with huge amount of moisture causing ex- treme precipitation events over ice shelves. Many biological studies, e.g. Convey, Smith (2005), have found that increasing air and water temperatures, reducing ice and snow covers on the islands and the Mainland mainly lead to increasing and developing of biodiversity in this region. At the same time, new milder weather conditions in austral summer pro- mote growth of touristic industry and fishery, and more smooth logistic operations for Antarctic sta- tions and biological, oceanographic and another re- search. Therefore, a study of possible climate change over this region addresses some important issues: what distribution of snow/ice cover could be expect- ed in the future and how it will influence an overall picture, biodiversity and other aspects of the region? The main modern instruments for climate study are Global Climate Models (GCM), the most ad- vanced one of them is the so-called Earth System Mo- del, which includes representations and interactions between all components of the Earth’s climate system: Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Cryosphere, Bio sphere and Lithosphere. GCMs can be used to study past, pres- ent and future climates, the later based on different scenarios, but they cannot describe regional climate features good enough due to low spatial resolutions and in most cases simplified physics (Connolley, O’Farrell, 1998). That is why Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced by GCMs driving fields are used for regional climate research (IPCC, 2013). As opposed to GCMs, RCMs have higher spatial and temporal resolutions, so they are more useful, particularly for mountain regions. Also, RCMs better than GCMs describe mesoscale physics in the atmosphere. In this paper we consider two RCMs HIRHAM5 (Christensen et al., 2007) based on a subset of the HIRLAM model (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Mo del) and physics from ECHAM, and RACMO21P (Re gionAl Climate MOdel) (van Meijgaard et al., 2008) forced by two GCMs EC-EARTH (A Europe- an community Earth-System Model) and HadGEM (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model). Fea- tures of HIRHAM5 in comparison to ERA-40 are examined in Dethloff et al. (2010), while RACMO 21P forced by ERA-40 (ECMWF re-analysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions for 45 years) was explored in Rodrigo et al. (2013). van Wes- sem et al. (2016) use RACMO2.3 to estimate back- ground climate conditions in snow balance research over the Antarctic Peninsula. The main objective of the study was to assess a pos- sible climate change in the region of the Antarctic Pe- ninsula until the end of the 21st century projected by the RCMs’ ensemble. The assessment was based on ma- jor cold and wet/dry climate indices proposed by World Climate Research Program WCRP (Karl et al., 1999; Peterson et al., 2001) and calculated by climate4R open framework tools (Iturbide et al., 2019). DATA AND METHODS Detailed description of used data and methods are pre- sented in the first part of the paper (Chyhareva et al., 49ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices 2019). Here just a brief description will be presented essential to understand the results and conclusions. This research is based on results of Polar-CORD- EX initiative (Coordinated Regional Climate Down- scaling Experiment for the Polar Regions) (Giorgi, Gutowski, 2015; Koenigk et al., 2015). Driving fields for used RCMs were derived from two GCMs of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparing Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2011). Three runs of two regional cli- mate models (RCMs) available at Antarctica Polar- CORDEX web-site (http://climate-cryosphere.org/ activities/targeted/polar-cordex/antarctic) at the time of the study were used: RACMO21Pv1 and HIRHAM5 both forced by EC-EARTH GCM, and RACMO21 Pv2 forced by HadGEM2 (van Meijgaard et al., 2008, Christensen et al., 2007, Collins et al., 2008, http:// www.ec-earth.org). Ensemble was formed by averag- ing of the above three runs and their mean as like as all individual RCM runs were processed in order to calculate indices and their dispersion by a software tool climate4R (Iturbide et al., 2019). Outputs for historical runs with driving fields from ERA-Interim for the period of 1986—2005 (Granier et al., 2011) and two scenarios for Polar-CORDEX namely Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for radiative forcing 4.5 W/m2 (RCP4.5, Thomson et al., 2011) and 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5, Riahi et al., 2011) are considered for two future periods: 2041—2060 and 2081—2100. Orography of the whole RCM HIRHAM5 domain is presented in Figure 1, a, while a part of the West Antarctica orography from RACMO2 is at Figure 1, b. We focus on the Antarctic Peninsula region where narrow and high ridge of mountains is clear recogni- zable on the maps of both RCMs. However, the high- est isolines are of 1800 m (Fig. 1, a) and 1500 m (Fig. 1, b) in Palmer Land region, while real peaks reached much over 2000 m (Mt. Jackson, Mt. Coman, and Mt. Hope) show obviously misrepresentation of the topography in the models. Estimation of climate change in the Antarctic Pe- ninsula region was done on the basis of six indices from the recommended by the World Climate Re - se arch Program WCRP (Karl et al., 1999; Peterson et al., 2001). Cold temperature indices were described in the first part of this paper (Chyhareva et al., 2019): FD — frost days, number of days per year when daily mini- mum temperature is less than 0°; ID-ice days, num- ber of days per year when daily maximum tempera- ture is less than 0°. This part is devoted to wet/dry indices, namely: Fig. 1. a — modelled topography of the whole Antarctica do- ma in by HIRHAM5 from Fig. 1 in Dethloff et al. (2010); b — mo delled topography of part of the West Antarctica by RACMO2 adopted from Fig. 15 in Rodrigo et al. (2013) a b 50 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19) A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak • PRCPTOT (mm/year) as annual sum of precipi ta- tion in wet days (WD), when daily sum is over 1 mm; • SDII (mm/day) simple daily (precipitation) in ten- sity index calculated as PRCPTOT divided by num- ber of WD; • CWD (days) the longest period in year with con- secutive WD; • CDD (days) the longest period in year with consecutive dry days, when daily precipitation sum is less than 1 mm. Although CDD index may not be representative for continental Antarctica because of naturally dry climate, but for the Antarctic Peninsula region where precipitation amount is often more than 1000 mm (van Wessem et al., 2016) it is still relevant. Fig. 2. Wet/dry climate indices over the Antarctic Peninsula and its ice shelves for Historical period 1986—2005: a — PRCPTOT (mm); b — SDII (mm/day); c — CWD (days); d — CDD (days) a c b d 1000 50 14 800 40 12 40 10 600 30 8 30 400 20 6 20 4 10 200 10 2 0 0 0 0 51ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices Fig. 3. Time series of climate indices PRCPTOT (a, b), SDII (c, d), CWD (e, f), CDD (g, h) for Historical (all), RCP4.5 (a, c, e, g) and RCP8.5 (b, d, f, h) scenarios for the 21st century. Solid line is RCM’s ensemble means. Shaded areas on graphs are representing RCMs’ ensemble range 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2087-0 9-1 3 2087-0 9-1 3 2087-0 9-1 3 2087-0 9-1 3 2087-0 9-1 3 2087-0 9-1 3 2087-0 9-1 3 2087-0 9-1 3 2076-0 5-2 6 2076-0 5-2 6 2076-0 5-2 6 2076-0 5-2 6 2076-0 5-2 6 2076-0 5-2 6 2076-0 5-2 6 2076-0 5-2 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2065-0 2-0 6 2053-1 0-1 9 2053-1 0-1 9 2053-1 0-1 9 2053-1 0-1 9 2053-1 0-1 9 2053-1 0-1 9 2053-1 0-1 9 2053-1 0-1 9 2042-0 7-0 2 2042-0 7-0 2 2042-0 7-0 2 2042-0 7-0 2 2042-0 7-0 2 2042-0 7-0 2 2042-0 7-0 2 2042-0 7-0 2 2031-0 3-1 5 2031-0 3-1 5 2031-0 3-1 5 2031-0 3-1 5 2031-0 3-1 5 2031-0 3-1 5 2031-0 3-1 5 2031-0 3-1 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2019-1 1-2 5 2008-0 8-0 7 2008-0 8-0 7 2008-0 8-0 7 2008-0 8-0 7 2008-0 8-0 7 2008-0 8-0 7 2008-0 8-0 7 2008-0 8-0 7 1997-0 4-2 0 1997-0 4-2 0 1997-0 4-2 0 1997-0 4-2 0 1997-0 4-2 0 1997-0 4-2 0 1997-0 4-2 0 1997-0 4-2 0 1986-0 1-0 1 1986-0 1-0 1 1986-0 1-0 1 1986-0 1-0 1 1986-0 1-0 1 1986-0 1-0 1 1986-0 1-0 1 1986-0 1-0 1 P R C P T O T , m m S D II m m ⋅ d ay – 1 C W D d ay s C D D d ay s Time series of PRCPTOT-ANT44-ANT-rcp45-annual Time series of SDII-ANT44-ANT-rcp45-annual Time series of CWD-ANT44-ANT-rcp45-annual Time series of CDD-ANT44-ANT-rcp45-annual Dates 1170 1170 1040 1040 910 910 780 6 12 24 24 6 12 7 14 28 28 32 32 7 14 780 650 5 10 20 20 5 10 650 520 4 8 16 16 4 8 520 390 3 6 12 12 3 6 390 a c e g h d f b Historical period RCP4.5 2041—2060 RCP4.5 2081—2100 52 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19) A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak RESULTS In this section, obtained results for the above four cli- mate indices are presented and discussed as the mean of used RCMs. Spatial features will be analyzed as maps for three periods and time-series of the indices for both averaged over the whole domain and a single grid point nearest to Akademik Vernadsky station. The specific obtained feature is that changes in the wet/dry indices for Akademik Vernadsky station have similar tendencies and values as averaged over the whole Antarctic Peninsula. It differs from the find- ings for the cold temperature indices’ changes, when range of values for Akademik Vernadsky station few times exceed the range of averaged values for the whole peninsula (Chyhareva et al., 2019). Since the obtained wet/dry indices for Akademik Vernadsky station do not differ significantly from the character- istics for the whole peninsula, they are not discussed in detail and presented in the Appendix. Analysis of the wet/dry indices over the Antarctic Peninsula for historical period Regions with the highest precipitation amount and intensity are found on the west windward side of the Antarctic Peninsula, namely, Graham Land and Palmer Land, north-west of Alexander Island (Fig. 2, a, b). In the above region the longest CWD (with pre- cipitation ≥ 1 mm) is less than 20 days with some points at the coast where this period is longer (Fig. 2, c), and the longest CDD (with precipitation < 1mm) is mostly over 20 days with a minimum of less than 10 days (Fig. 2, d). Respectively the regions with the lowest PRCPTOT values (200—300 mm) and SDII (about 5 mm/day) are Larsen Ice Shelf and leeward east coast where CWD is less than 10 days, while CDD is up to 30 days (Fig. 2). Projections in the 21st century Increase in the total precipitation is projected at the end of the century by both scenarios. According to the scenario RCP4.5 PRCPTOT is expected to in- crease by 17% in the middle of the century compared to the historical period of 1986—2005 and remain on the same level at the end of the century (Fig. 3, a). According to scenario RCP8.5 PRCPTOT is project- ed to increase from 20% in the middle to approxi- mately 40% till the end of the 21st century (Fig. 3, b). Projected changes for SDII are not so high, and they are similar to the PRCPTOTs’ time series (Fig. 3, c, d). SDII increase for about 5% is expected from the middle to the end of the century according to the sce- nario RCP4.5 (Fig. 3, c). Under the scenario RCP8.5 projected SDII changes are from about 8% at 50th of 21st century and increasing up to 20% till the end of the century (Fig. 3, d). These results indicate increas- ing of precipitation intensity in the 21st century. In the 21st century, the number of CWD will increase by 5—10% to the end of the century in the Antarctic Pe ninsula region under scenario RCP4.5 (Fig. 3, e) and by 7—15% under scenario RCP8.5 (Fig. 3, f). Higher variability is projected for Akademik Vernadsky station (Fig. 3, a). Here, maximum values could exceed 30% in some periods according to both scenarios; however, averaged multiyear mean changes are similar to aver- aged values over the whole peninsula. Variability of maximum changes is higher for CWD than for CDD. In general, duration of maximum dry spell is pro- jected to become shorter under both scenarios for the whole peninsula and for Akademik Vernadsky sta- tion. Changes are projected to be about 7—10% un- der the scenario RCP4.5 (Fig. 3, g) and 10—15% un- der the RCP8.5 (Fig. 3, h). Spatial distribution Several regions are found for the projected changing precipitation regime. The least changes are expected on the east leeward hills of Graham Land and in the region of the Larsen Ice Shelf for the scenario RCP4.5 with increasing of precipitation total less than 10% (Fig. 4, a, b). Under the scenario RCP8.5 the de- crease in precipitation and its intensity down to 5% is projected over the Larsen Ice Shelf in the middle and increase up to 10% at the end of the century (Fig. 4, c, d, Fig. 5, c, d). These values are the lowest over the Antarctic Peninsula for both scenarios. In general, under RCP4.5 increases by 20—30% for PRCPTOT (Fig. 4, a, b) and 5—10% for SDII 53ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices (Fig. 5, a, b) are projected over the vast majority of the peninsula for both periods. Under scenario RCP8.5 on the west windward slopes of the peninsula maximum obtained values for the middle of the cen- tury are higher by 40% for PRCPTOT (Fig. 4, c) and by 15% for SDII (Fig. 5, c). The projected changes of the indices till the end of the century are over 60% for PRCPTOT in the region of Palmer Land (Fig. 4, d), and precipitation intensity is projected to increase by 15—25% (Fig. 5, d). The spatial distribution of projected changes of consecutive wet days presented in Fig. 6 has a simi- lar pattern as of PRCPTOT and SDII. There is de- creasing in CWD for Larsen Ice Shelf and some re- gions of the east coast (leeward slopes at prevailing west winds) under the RCP4.5 scenario (Fig. 6, a, b). These chan ges are about –10% with maximum of about –20% till the end of the century. At the same time for the majority of the region of about 10% decreasing in CDD is also projected (Fig. 7, a, Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of PRCPTOT mean change (%) for the pointed climatic periods for scenarios RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 70 70 70 70 60 60 60 60 50 50 50 50 40 40 40 40 30 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 –10 –10 –10 –10 a с d 2081—2100 2081—2100 2041—2060 2041—2060 b RCP 8.5 54 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19) A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak b). For the rest of the peninsula, increasing of CWD period by 10% in general and up to 20% on some west mostly windward mountain slopes is obtained (Fig. 6, a, b). For these regions, projected CDD changes are 10% decreasing, with maximum de- creasing of about 20% in mountain regions till the end of the century (Fig. 7, a, b). Projected changes for CWD under the scenario RCP8.5 have more pronounced decreasing of the in- dex by about –10% (Fig. 6, c) with maxima of about –20% (Fig. 6, d) on the eastern leeward slopes of mountains and Larsen Ice Shelf. For the rest of the peninsula, increasing of CWD period of about 10- 20% with maxima of about 30% at the middle and 20—30% with maxima up to 40% till the end of the century is projected. At the same scenario RCP8.5 decreasing of CDD period by 10—20% is expected for almost the whole peninsula (Fig. 7, c, d). It is higher on windward west slopes and in mountain regions, where maximum changes could exceed 40% till the end of the century. Since CDD is projected to decrease for the majority Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of SDII mean change (%) for the pointed climatic periods for scenarios RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 35 35 35 35 30 30 30 30 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 –5 –5 –5 –5 a с d 2081—2100 2081—2100 2041—2060 2041—2060 b RCP 8.5 S D II a n o m a ly % S D II a n o m a ly % 55ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices of the peninsula, potentially there could be subre- gions where CWD and CDD will be decreasing si- multaneously (Fig. 6, c, d, Fig. 7, c, d). CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS Remarkable features of obtained PRCPTOT and SDII changes’ projections over the Antarctic Penin- sula are associated with its orography, namely the highest increase in precipitation amount and inten- sity are observed on windward slopes. Since the An- tarctic Peninsula is under the influence of both warm oceanic westerlies and cold winds from the continent (Turner et al., 2005), projected warming will cause more evaporation from the ocean resulting in more precipitable water in the atmosphere of the region (Feng et al., 2019). Hence precipitation pattern trig- gered by Antarctic Peninsula mountains expects changes. Moreover, smoothed and underestimated terrain height can decrease the modeled precipita- tion in comparison with real values. This issue has been studied in many works from different parts of the world, e.g. (Cannon et al., 2017). An increase in precipitable water can probably intensify formation of Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of CWD mean change (%) for the pointed climatic periods for scenarios RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 40 40 40 35 30 30 30 30 20 20 20 25 10 10 10 20 0 0 0 15 –10 –10 –10 10 –20 –20 –20 5 –30 –30 –30 0 –40 –40 –40 –5 a с d 2081—2100 2081—2100 2041—2060 2041—2060 b RCP 8.5 56 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19) A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak atmospheric rivers, which have a significant and un- certain effect on the formation of snow and ice cover in Antarctica (Wille et al., 2019). In general, the CWD period is extended while of the CDD period is reduced. CWD changes are much more influenced by the orography than CDD, where CDD increasing just for a few points on the east slopes are found. Changes of the analyzed wet/dry indices time series in the Akademik Vernadsky station region are similar to changes over the whole Antarctic Peninsula. This is different from the tendency for cold temperature indices, for which projected changes for Akademik Vernadsky station had both much bigger variability and values than for the Antarctic Peninsula in gen- eral (Chyhareva et al., 2019). Analyzing results presented in both parts of the re- search (Chyhareva et al., 2019) a few subregions with different projected changes in climate conditions based on obtained climate indices can be distinguished: a. Leeward slopes of Graham Land and Palmer Land. A decrease in the number of frost and ice days (which indicates an extension of the warm period) and a slight increase in precipitation and their inten- Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of CDD mean change (%) for the pointed climatic periods for scenarios RCP4.5 (a, b) and RCP8.5 (c, d) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 30 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 20 0 0 0 –10 –10 –10 10 0 –20 –20 –20 –30 –30 –30 –10 –20 –30 a с d 2081—2100 2081—2100 2041—2060 2041—2060 b RCP 8.5 57ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices sity in these regions are projected. Also, a decrease in CWD duration is predicted here. The highest warm- ing and drying are projected for Larsen Ice Shelf ac- cording to both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with significant decrease of frost and ice days in combination with just 10% increase in precipitation. b. Windward slopes of ridges, Graham Land and Palmer Land. Maximum projected increasing of pre- cipitation and comparatively low decreasing of ice and frost days, with projected substantial reducing of CDD and extending of CWD. c. West coast and islands, including Alexander Is- land and George VI Sound. Increasing of precipitation and their intensity, extending of CWD, reducing of CDD and remarkable decreasing of frost and ice days. According to both scenarios, islands in the north-west will experience the highest increase in PRCPTOT and SDII with simultaneous projected one of the highest frost and ice days decline. It should be stressed that obtained increasing/de- creasing of precipitation cannot be directly connected with ice/snow balance, because we cannot define rain/ snow fraction of future precipitation from the analyzed indices. Reducing of ice/frost days can indirectly indi- cate on changing precipitation fraction towards rain, which could lead and intensify melting of ice sheets. Even if there is snow precipitation, which part of it will be accumulated, is still the question, which could be answered only from extensive field experiments. Future research on other climate indicators can add more information in order to project ice/snow balance of Antarctic Peninsula region more precisely. Obtained results could be used for impact study on ecosystems in the region, e.g. colonization of the land, used to be under the snow/ice and developing of biodiversity (Convey et al., 2005, Sancho et al., 2007, Sancho et al., 2017). Acknowledgements. This work was conducted with- in the framework of The State Special-Purpose Re- search Program in Antarctica for 2011—2020. The authors thank Santander Meteorology Group and Maialen Iturbide for assistance with climate4R fra- mework and data processing that greatly helped wor- king on this paper. We thank the anonymous review- ers for the insightful and valuable comments and sug- gestions that help us to improve our paper. 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Nature Geoscience, 12 (11), 911–916. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0460-1. Received 10 December 2019 Accepted 23 December 2019 59ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices А. Ю. Чигарева1, 2, *, С. В. Краковська1, 2, Д. В. Пішняк2 1 Український гідрометеорологічний інститут, Державна служба надзвичайних ситуацій України та Національна академія наук України, пр. Науки, 37, м. Київ, 0302, Україна 2 Державна установа Національний антарктичний науковий центр МОН України, бульв. Тараса Шевченка, 16, м. Київ, 01016, Україна * Автор для кореспонденції: chyhareva@ukr.net Кліматичні проекції в районі Антарктичного півострова до кінця XXI століття. Частина ІІ: індекси зволоження Реферат. Мета дослідження — оцінка можливої зміни клімату в регіоні Антарктичного півострова до кінця 21 століття за проекціями ансамблю регіональних кліматичних моделей (РКМ). Впродовж останніх десятиліть на переважаючій території Антарктиди спостерігається потепління, воно найінтенсивніше для Антарктичного півострова, де знахо- диться Українська антарктична станція «Академік Вернадський». У регіоні існує унікальна екосистема, яка є вразли- вою до зміни погодного режиму, що відбувається під впливом швидких змін клімату та їхніх наслідків, зокрема, зміни розподілу морського льоду та суші вкритої снігом / льодом тощо. Отже, для регіону важливим завданням є оцінка проекцій зміни клімату з визначенням окремих районів з подібними тенденціями. Дані та методи. В дослідженні ви- користовувалися дані двох РКМ HIRHAM5 та RACMO21P, для регіону Антарктичного півострова, від міжнародного проекту Polar-CORDEX (Координований регіональний експеримент з динамічного масштабування для регіонів Ан- тарктиди та Арктики) в рамках міжнародної ініціативи CORDEX. Граничні умови РКМ були взяті з глобальних клі- матичних моделей EC-EARTH та HadGEM. Просторовий розподіл даних РКМ становить 0,44°. Скрипти, розроблені проектом Climate4R (Середовище R для доступу до кліматичних даних та їх обробки), було модифіковано для доступу до даних для Антарктичного півострова з домену Антарктиди та отримання кліматологічних характеристик для окре- мих РКМ та їх усереднення за ансамблем. Прогнозовані зміни кліматичних показників періоду з опадами більше (менше) 1мм на день за двома сценаріями RCP4.5 і RCP8.5 за два періоди 2041—2060 рр. та 2081—2100 рр. були оціне- ні відповідно до історичного експерименту 1986—2005 рр. Результати. Аналіз прогнозованих показників режиму зво- ложення за двома сценаріями RCP4.5 і RCP8.5 представлений в частині II статті, тоді як аналіз індексів холоду (FD, ID) був представлений у частині I дослідження. За історичним експериментом льодовик Ларсена та підвітряне східне узбережжя є регіонами з найнижчою загальною кількістю опадів у вологі дні (PRCPTOT, 200—300 мм) та спрощеним добовим індексом інтенсивності опадів (SDII, приблизно 5мм/день), при цьому тривалість днів поспіль з опадами більше 1мм (CWD) до 10 днів, а тривалість послідовних днів з опадами менше 1 мм (CDD) до 30 днів. У ХХІ столітті прогнозується, що CDD на всьому півострові та на антарктичній станції «Академік Вернадський» скоротиться на 7-10% за сценарієм RCP4.5 і на 10—15% за сценарієм RCP8.5. Також прогнозується зменшення SDII на 20% до кінця століття за сценарієм RCP8.5 на північно-західному узбережжі Антарктичного півострова. Висновки. Для регіону Ан- тарктичного півострова обидва сценарії прогнозують в цілому збільшення загальної кількості опадів та їх інтенсив- ності; в цілому максимальна тривалість періоду з опадами більше 1 мм збільшується, а максимальна тривалість пері- оду з опадами менше 1 мм – скорочується. У поєднанні зі зменшенням кількості днів з мінімальною (FD) та макси- мальною (ID) температурою менше 0 °С зміни неоднорідні на півострові. У першій частині статті було показано, що для регіону Антарктичного півострова за двома сценаріями прогнозується загалом зменшення тривалості холодного періоду. Найсуттєвіші зміни кліматичних індексів ID та FD прогнозуються для льодовика Ларсена. Аналізуючи ре- зультати, представлені в обох частинах статті, ми можемо виділити кілька районів в регіоні з різними прогнозовани- ми змінами кліматичних умов на основі отриманих кліматичних показників. Отримані результати можуть бути ви- користані як для вивчення впливу на екосистеми в регіоні, так і для стратегічного планування майбутньої діяльності (наукової, туристичної, рибної промисловості та ін.). Ключові слова: Антарктичний півострів, Українська антарктична станція «Академік Вернадський», кліматичні показники, регіональна модель клімату, Polar-CORDEX, сценарії RCP. 60 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19) A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak APPENDIX Fig. A.1. Time series of PRCPPTOT change for Antarctic Peninsula (pink) and the Akademik Vernadsky station (black) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 2041—2060 period 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 –20 –20 –20 –20 –40 –40 –40 –40 –60 –60 –60 –60 2041-0 1-0 1 2041-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2058-0 2-0 6 2058-0 2-0 6 2097-0 3-1 4 2097-0 3-1 4 2060-0 1-0 1 2060-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2056-0 3-1 4 2056-0 3-1 4 2095-0 5-2 7 2095-0 5-2 7 2054-0 4-2 0 2054-0 4-2 0 2093-0 8-0 7 2093-0 8-0 7 2052-0 5-2 6 2052-0 5-2 6 2091-1 0-2 0 2091-1 0-2 0 2050-0 7-0 2 2050-0 7-0 2 2090-0 1-0 1 2090-0 1-0 1 2048-0 8-0 7 2048-0 8-0 7 2088-0 3-1 4 2088-0 3-1 4 2046-0 9-1 3 2046-0 9-1 3 2086-0 5-2 7 2086-0 5-2 7 2044-1 0-1 9 2044-1 0-1 9 2084-0 8-0 7 2084-0 8-0 7 2042-1 1-2 5 2042-1 1-2 5 2082-1 0-2 0 2082-1 0-2 0 0 0 0 0 2041—2060 period a c b d Dates Dates Dates Dates 2081—2100 period 2081—2100 period For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station P R C P P T O T d e lt a , % P R C P P T O T d e lt a , % P R C P P T O T d e lt a , % P R C P P T O T d e lt a , % 61ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices Fig. A.2. Time series of SDII change for Antarctic Peninsula (pink) and the Akademik Vernadsky station (black) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 2041—2060 period 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 –20 –20 –20 –20 –40 –40 –40 –40 –60 –60 –60 –60 2041-0 1-0 1 2041-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2058-0 2-0 6 2058-0 2-0 6 2097-0 3-1 4 2097-0 3-1 4 2060-0 1-0 1 2060-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2056-0 3-1 4 2056-0 3-1 4 2095-0 5-2 7 2095-0 5-2 7 2054-0 4-2 0 2054-0 4-2 0 2093-0 8-0 7 2093-0 8-0 7 2052-0 5-2 6 2052-0 5-2 6 2091-1 0-2 0 2091-1 0-2 0 2050-0 7-0 2 2050-0 7-0 2 2090-0 1-0 1 2090-0 1-0 1 2048-0 8-0 7 2048-0 8-0 7 2088-0 3-1 4 2088-0 3-1 4 2046-0 9-1 3 2046-0 9-1 3 2086-0 5-2 7 2086-0 5-2 7 2044-1 0-1 9 2044-1 0-1 9 2084-0 8-0 7 2084-0 8-0 7 2042-1 1-2 5 2042-1 1-2 5 2082-1 0-2 0 2082-1 0-2 0 0 0 0 0 2041—2060 period a c b d Dates Dates Dates Dates 2081—2100 period 2081—2100 period For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station S D II d e lt a , % S D II d e lt a , % S D II d e lt a , % S D II d e lt a , % 62 ISSN 1727-7485. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal. 2019, № 2 (19) A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak Fig. A.3. Time series of CWD change for Antarctic Peninsula (pink) and the Akademik Vernadsky station (black) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 2041—2060 period 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 –20 –20 –20 –20 –40 –40 –40 –40 –60 –60 –60 –60 2041-0 1-0 1 2041-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2058-0 2-0 6 2058-0 2-0 6 2097-0 3-1 4 2097-0 3-1 4 2060-0 1-0 1 2060-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2056-0 3-1 4 2056-0 3-1 4 2095-0 5-2 7 2095-0 5-2 7 2054-0 4-2 0 2054-0 4-2 0 2093-0 8-0 7 2093-0 8-0 7 2052-0 5-2 6 2052-0 5-2 6 2091-1 0-2 0 2091-1 0-2 0 2050-0 7-0 2 2050-0 7-0 2 2090-0 1-0 1 2090-0 1-0 1 2048-0 8-0 7 2048-0 8-0 7 2088-0 3-1 4 2088-0 3-1 4 2046-0 9-1 3 2046-0 9-1 3 2086-0 5-2 7 2086-0 5-2 7 2044-1 0-1 9 2044-1 0-1 9 2084-0 8-0 7 2084-0 8-0 7 2042-1 1-2 5 2042-1 1-2 5 2082-1 0-2 0 2082-1 0-2 0 0 0 0 0 2041—2060 period a c b d Dates Dates Dates Dates 2081—2100 period 2081—2100 period For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station C W D d e lt a , % C W D d e lt a , % C W D d e lt a , % C W D d e lt a , % 63ISSN 1727-7485. Український антарктичний журнал. 2019, № 2 (19) Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices Fig. A.4. Time series of CDD change for Antarctic Peninsula (pink) and the Akademik Vernadsky station (black) RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 2041—2060 period 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 –20 –20 –20 –20 –40 –40 –40 –40 –60 –60 –60 –60 2041-0 1-0 1 2041-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2081-0 1-0 1 2058-0 2-0 6 2058-0 2-0 6 2097-0 3-1 4 2097-0 3-1 4 2060-0 1-0 1 2060-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2099-0 1-0 1 2056-0 3-1 4 2056-0 3-1 4 2095-0 5-2 7 2095-0 5-2 7 2054-0 4-2 0 2054-0 4-2 0 2093-0 8-0 7 2093-0 8-0 7 2052-0 5-2 6 2052-0 5-2 6 2091-1 0-2 0 2091-1 0-2 0 2050-0 7-0 2 2050-0 7-0 2 2090-0 1-0 1 2090-0 1-0 1 2048-0 8-0 7 2048-0 8-0 7 2088-0 3-1 4 2088-0 3-1 4 2046-0 9-1 3 2046-0 9-1 3 2086-0 5-2 7 2086-0 5-2 7 2044-1 0-1 9 2044-1 0-1 9 2084-0 8-0 7 2084-0 8-0 7 2042-1 1-2 5 2042-1 1-2 5 2082-1 0-2 0 2082-1 0-2 0 0 0 0 0 2041—2060 period a c b d Dates Dates Dates Dates 2081—2100 period 2081—2100 period For Antarctic Peninsula For Akademik Vernadsky station For Antarctic Peninsula 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id nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-168329
institution Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
issn 1727-7485
language English
last_indexed 2025-12-07T18:49:14Z
publishDate 2019
publisher Національний антарктичний науковий центр МОН України
record_format dspace
spelling Chyhareva, A.
Krakovska, S.
Pishniak, D.
2020-04-30T11:25:54Z
2020-04-30T11:25:54Z
2019
Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices / A. Chyhareva, S. Krakovska, D. Pishniak // Український антарктичний журнал. — 2019. — № 2 (19). — С. 47-63. — Бібліогр.: 27 назв. — англ.
1727-7485
https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/168329
551.582.2
Objective of the study is an assessment of possible climate change in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1986 until the end of the 21st century projected by the RCMs’ ensemble. During the last decades Antarctica has undergone predominantly warming, with the highest rate of surface air temperature increase found over the Antarctic Peninsula, where the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station is located. There is a unique ecosystem in the region which is vulnerable and under the growing impact of a changing weather regime due to rapid climate changes with consequent changes in sea ice, land distribution under snow/ice, etc. Thus, an important task for the region is an estimation of climate change trends and definition of possible subregionalization.
Мета дослідження — оцінка можливої зміни клімату в регіоні Антарктичного півострова до кінця 21 століття за проекціями ансамблю регіональних кліматичних моделей (РКМ). Впродовж останніх десятиліть на переважаючій території Антарктиди спостерігається потепління, воно найінтенсивніше для Антарктичного півострова, де знаходиться Українська антарктична станція «Академік Вернадський». У регіоні існує унікальна екосистема, яка є вразливою до зміни погодного режиму, що відбувається під впливом швидких змін клімату та їхніх наслідків, зокрема, зміни розподілу морського льоду та суші вкритої снігом / льодом тощо. Отже, для регіону важливим завданням є оцінка проекцій зміни клімату з визначенням окремих районів з подібними тенденціями.
This work was conducted within the framework of The State Special-Purpose Research Program in Antarctica for 2011—2020. The authors thank Santander Meteorology Group and Maialen Iturbide for assistance with climate4R framework and data processing that greatly helped working on this paper. We thank the anonymous reviewers for the insightful and valuable comments and suggestions that help us to improve our paper.
en
Національний антарктичний науковий центр МОН України
Український антарктичний журнал
Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження
Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices
Кліматичні проекції в районі Антарктичного півострова до кінця XXI століття. Частина ІІ: індекси зволоження
Article
published earlier
spellingShingle Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices
Chyhareva, A.
Krakovska, S.
Pishniak, D.
Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження
title Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices
title_alt Кліматичні проекції в районі Антарктичного півострова до кінця XXI століття. Частина ІІ: індекси зволоження
title_full Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices
title_fullStr Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices
title_full_unstemmed Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices
title_short Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part ІІ: wet/dry indices
title_sort climate projections over the antarctic peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. part іі: wet/dry indices
topic Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження
topic_facet Гідрометеорологічні та океанографічні дослідження
url https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/168329
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