Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment
Since 2013, Ukrainians have been increasingly at risk of becoming unemployed — due to the ongoing political and economic crisis along with the annexation of the Crimea and armed conflict in the east of the country. Furthermore, Ukraine's striving towards EU membership necessitates introducing a...
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| Cite this: | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment / G. Chepurko, I. Novak // Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг. — 2017. — № 4. — С. 169-184. — англ |
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| citation_txt | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment / G. Chepurko, I. Novak // Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг. — 2017. — № 4. — С. 169-184. — англ |
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| description | Since 2013, Ukrainians have been increasingly at risk of becoming unemployed — due to the ongoing political and economic crisis along with the annexation of the Crimea and armed conflict in the east of the country. Furthermore, Ukraine's striving towards EU membership necessitates introducing and implementing the European employment strategy (EES). The purpose of this research paper is twofold: first, to analyse the risk of becoming unemployed among insufficiently competitive population groups in Ukraine, Poland and 28 EU member countries as a whole; second, using the results of comparative analysis, to formulate the national employment policy priorities in accordance with European requirements.
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Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
Insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment
GUL’BARSHYN CHEPURKO,UDC 331.56/57
Doc tor of Sci ences in So ci ol ogy, Lead ing Re -
search Fel low of the So cial Ex per tise De part -
ment, In sti tute of So ci ol ogy of the Na tional Acad -
emy of Sci ences of Ukraine (Kyiv)
IRYNA NOVAK,
Ph. D. in Eco nom ics, Lead ing Re search Fel low of
the Hu man De vel op ment Re search De part ment,
M.V. Ptukha In sti tute for De mog ra phy and So cial
Stud ies of the Na tional Acad emy of Sciences of
Ukraine (Kyiv)
Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups
in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment
Ab stract
Since 2013, Ukrai ni ans have been in creas ingly at risk of be com ing un em ployed — due
to the on go ing po lit i cal and eco nomic cri sis along with the an nex ation of the Cri mea
and armed con flict in the east of the coun try. Fur ther more, Ukraine’s striv ing to wards
EU mem ber ship ne ces si tates in tro duc ing and im ple ment ing the Eu ro pean em ploy ment
strat egy (EES). The pur pose of this re search pa per is two fold: first, to ana lyse the risk
of be com ing un em ployed among in suf fi ciently com pet i tive pop u la tion groups in
Ukraine, Po land and 28 EU mem ber coun tries as a whole; sec ond, us ing the re sults of
com par a tive anal y sis, to for mu late the na tional em ploy ment policy priorities in accor -
dance with European requirements.
Keywords: un em ploy ment, la bour mar ket, risks, in suf fi ciently com pet i tive pop u la -
tion groups, ed u ca tional at tain ment, youth, fe male em ploy ees, older work ers
The lin ger ing po lit i cal and eco nomic cri sis to gether with the an nex ation of
the Cri mea and Rus sia’s mil i tary in ter ven tion in Donbas have been the three ma -
jor fac tors con trib ut ing to the rise of un em ploy ment in Ukraine since 2013, par -
tic u larly among in suf fi ciently com pet i tive pop u la tion groups. On the other
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2017, 4 169
hand, Ukraine’s pol icy aimed at achiev ing EU mem ber ship in volves in tro duc ing
and im ple ment ing the Eu ro pean em ploy ment strat egy. The au thors have ana -
lysed the un em ploy ment risks in re gard to the pop u la tion groups con sid ered to
be in suf fi ciently com pet i tive (young peo ple, women, older work ers, etc.) in
Ukraine, Po land (as a coun try eco nom i cally and cul tur ally close to Ukraine) and
28 EU mem ber states as a whole. The re sults of this com par a tive anal y sis have
served as a ba sis for elab o rat ing rec om men da tions on the na tional em ploy ment
pol icy mea sures pur su ant to the EES re quire ments.
The phe nom e non of un em ploy ment has been stud ied in var i ous eco nomic
the o ries such as clas si cal, Marx ist, Keynes ian, neo clas si cal, mon e tar ist, in sti tu -
tional, etc. Clas si cal econ o mists [Smith, 1776; Say, 1803; Ricardo, 1817; Petty,
1888, orig. pub. 1676; Mill, 1909, orig. pub. 1848] were prob a bly the first to ex -
plain un em ploy ment from a stand point of a free mar ket econ omy. Ac cord ing to
this ap proach, equi lib rium in the la bour mar ket (as well as in other mar kets) is es -
tab lished au to mat i cally; so, un em ploy ment can not be a se ri ous eco nomic prob -
lem. One of the ear li est at tempts to clar ify the na ture and causes of un em ploy -
ment was made by Thomas Mal thus [Mal thus, 1798].
Ac cord ing to Karl Marx [Marx, 1867], un em ploy ment is in her ent in a free
mar ket econ omy. La bour-power (Arbeitskraft), or the worker’s ca pac ity to do
work, be comes a com mod ity un der cap i tal ism. La bour-power cre ates a new value
dur ing the la bour pro cess and trans mits the value of other re sources to the prod -
uct be ing made. As a com mod ity, la bour- power is heavily af fected by fluc tu a tions
in sup ply and de mand. The Marxian the ory of sur plus pop u la tion ar gues that
“in dus trial re serve army”, i. e. re serve army of la bour, is formed due to the cap i tal -
ist mode of pro duc tion. The so lu tion to this prob lem con sists in chang ing the
mode of pro duc tion and re pu di a tion of seek ing profit as a pri mary goal.
John Maynard Keynes [Keynes, 1936] main tained that un em ploy ment re sults
from an in suf fi cient de mand for goods and thus for work ers who pro duce these
goods. Fall in de mand, in its turn, may be caused by a rise in pre cau tion ary sav ings
(i. e. peo ple look ing for se cu rity). In con tra dis tinc tion to clas si cal eco nom ics,
Keynes ian the ory as serts that free mar kets have no self-bal anc ing mech a nisms to
cope with em ploy ment. Gov ern ment is sup posed to be a prin ci pal reg u la tor of the
la bour mar ket by stim u lat ing the ag gre gate de mand for goods, ser vices and la bour.
Pro po nents of neo clas si cal eco nom ics [Mar shall, 1920, orig. pub. 1890; Pigou,
1933; Hall, 1970] un der score the role of wage in the la bour mar ket, as it can op ti -
mise workforce sup ply and de mand. As Hall noted, a per son is un em ployed if he of -
fers his la bour at a mar ket price but is un able to find a buyer [Hall, 1970: p. 371].
The the ory of hu man cap i tal (mainly rep re sented by Gary S. Becker and Ja -
cob Mincer) pays spe cial at ten tion to hu man be hav iour and anal y ses from this
per spec tive such phe nom ena as fam ily plan ning due to eco nomic rea sons, la bour
sup ply and de mand in the long run, la bour mar ket struc ture, un em ploy ment, the
role of trade un ions and state in the la bour mar ket reg u la tion. This the ory chal -
lenges the as sump tion of ho mo ge neous char ac ter of la bour, which pre vailed in
clas si cal eco nom ics. It also looks into the na ture of so cial in sti tu tions (fam ily, ed -
u ca tion, etc.) and non-mar ket ac tiv i ties (e. g., care for chil dren or el derly peo ple)
from an eco nomic stand point.
The mod ern the ory of hu man cap i tal emerged within the frame work of neo -
clas si cal the ory a few de cades ago; how ever, the idea of hu man cap i tal can be
170 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, маркетинг, 2017, 4
Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
traced back to the 17th cen tury. The pre vi ously men tioned Eng lish po lit i cal
econ o mist Sir Wil liam Petty (1623–1687) tried to mea sure the mon e tary value
of prod ucts made by in di vid ual work ers. The first so cial se cu rity mech a nisms
(com pen sa tion for in vol un tary un em ploy ment, sick ness and work place in jury,
etc.) were de vised at the turn of the 19th cen tury. They also con trib uted to the
fur ther de vel op ment of meth ods for as sess ing hu man cap i tal.
The mon e tar ist the ory, largely at trib uted to the works of an Amer i can
economist Mil ton Fried man (1912–2006), con tends that changes in the money
sup ply are the most sig nif i cant de ter mi nants of the rate of eco nomic growth and
the be hav iour of the busi ness cy cle. Mon e tar ists speak of the “nat u ral” rate of un -
em ploy ment as part of any econ omy and are op posed to gov ern ment in ter ven tion
in the econ omy. Trade un ions, in their view, are also eco nom i cally un de sir able.
Ad vo cates of mon e tary the ory re gard mar ket econ omy as self-sta bi lis ing, since it
rests upon com pe ti tion and flex i ble prices. Mon e tary pol icy tools (dis count rate,
re serve re quire ments and open mar ket op er a tions) are used to en sure sta bil ity in
fi nan cial mar kets.
The na ture of in sti tu tions in econ omy was thor oughly stud ied by Friedrich
Au gust von Hayek [Hayek, 1979], a re nowned econ o mist and sup porter of clas si -
cal lib er al ism. Hayek be lieved that so cial in sti tu tions are the prod uct of hu man
ac tion, but not of hu man de sign. They arise and take their shape not from con -
scious hu man in ven tion, but through evo lu tion as the prod uct of count less hu -
man in ter ac tions, each aimed at some more im me di ate, pri vate end [The En cy -
clo pe dia of Lib er tar i an ism, 2008]. Some ba sic points of Hayek’s the ory are in line
with the con cept of so cial mar ket econ omy.
As one of the rep re sen ta tives of the Aus trian school of eco nom ics, which
study what hap pens at the mi cro ec o nomic level, Hayek did not agree with the idea
of “gen eral equi lib rium”. In his view, eco nomic de ci sions are driven by sub jec tive
fac tors like an in di vid ual’s pref er ence to buy or not to buy a par tic u lar good. In
con trast to Keynes, Hayek ar gued that the role of gov ern ment in the econ omy
should be mini mised and con fined to en sur ing the mar ket’s “proper func tion ing”.
Hayek as cribed un em ploy ment to the dis crep ancy in the “dis tri bu tion of la -
bour be tween in dus tries and the dis tri bu tion of de mand among their prod ucts”,
which is in flu enced “by a dis tor tion of the sys tem of rel a tive prices and wages”
and can be cor rected “by the es tab lish ment in each sec tor of the econ omy of those
prices and wages at which sup ply will equal de mand” [Hayek, 1975]. He was a
strict op po nent of trade un ions, see ing them as “the prime source of un em ploy -
ment” [Hayek, 1991: p. 344]. Eco nomic in equal ity, in Hayek’s opin ion, is fun da -
men tal to a so ci ety’s prog ress.
For a long pe riod, Hayek’s so cial and eco nomic phi los o phy was con sid ered
con tro ver sial. The cri sis of Keynesianism in the 1970s and the col lapse of Marx -
ism in the 1980s–90s en tailed the rise of neoliberalism and re vival of in ter est in
the in sti tu tional eco nom ics.
Po lit i cal, eco nomic and so cial pro cesses oc cur ring to day put for ward new re -
quire ments for de vel op ment strat e gies that coun tries ought to carry out in re sponse
to many ex ist ing and emerg ing chal lenges such as ex ces sive in come in equal ity,
world wide cri sis in the wel fare state, in jus tice in the global econ omy, armed con -
flicts, dis rup tion of eco log i cal bal ance, etc. These ma jor prob lems di rectly af fect the
qual ity and avail abil ity of em ploy ment pros pects for peo ple around the world.
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2017, 4 171
Insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment
As noted above, the au thors will try to ana lyse un em ploy ment risks in Uk -
raine, Po land and 28 EU coun tries as a whole (here af ter re ferred to as the EU 28)
with re spect to in suf fi ciently com pet i tive pop u la tion groups (la bour mar ket en -
trants, women, low-skilled work ers, etc.) and then out line some rec om men da tions
on the na tional em ploy ment pol icy mea sures for these groups.
The risk of be com ing un em ployed is as so ci ated with an in di vid ual’s life cy cle
and de ter mined by bi o log i cal, psy cho log i cal and so cial na ture of hu man be ings.
For in stance, young grad u ates en ter ing the la bour mar ket find it dif fi cult to get a
job be cause they do not have nec es sary skills and work ex pe ri ence. Older work -
ers, de spite hav ing long ex pe ri ence, may not pos sess the qual i fi ca tions nec es sary
to do the job ei ther — if they have not been re trained or upskilled, their ex pe ri -
ence is un likely to match to day’s job re quire ments. Be sides, they might have
some age-re lated health prob lems which con sid er ably af fect their chances of get -
ting hired. Women usu ally have to slow down their ca reers for fam ily — they ei -
ther lose their jobs while on ma ter nity leave or face mul ti ple chal lenges re turn ing
to the workforce be cause of hav ing to “jug gle” full-time em ploy ment and paren t -
ing. In ad di tion, women gen er ally en coun ter more ob sta cles then men when look -
ing for a new job — em ploy ers are of ten re luc tant to hire women who have chil -
dren (or are of child-bear ing age). On the other hand, fe male par tic i pa tion in the
la bour mar ket have risen sub stan tially in re cent de cades: more and more women
are un will ing to give up their ca reers and be come stay-at-home wives; be sides,
their earn ings of ten con trib ute sig nif i cantly to joint house hold in come.
The irony is that prac ti cally no body can se cure them selves against the risk of
fall ing (per ma nently or tem po rarily) into the cat e gory of in suf fi ciently com pet i -
tive job ap pli cants. This es pe cially ap plies to peo ple liv ing in poorer coun tries or
re gions where the num ber of un em ployed is sig nif i cantly larger. Ta ble 1 fea tures
the main risks that an in di vid ual may face through out their life cy cle and how
these risks can be pre vented or re duced.
Table 1
Key risks faced by individuals throughout their life cycle and policy responses
Age group Risks Measures to address
0–5
years Stunted development Early childhood development programmes
Preschool education
6–14
years Poor education quality Improving primary school quality
15–25
years
Lower-secondary school
completion
Improving secondary school access/quality
Scholarship/return to school incentive programmes
25–64
years
Low income (un employ -
ment/underemployment)
Labour-intensive growth and labour market reforms
Unemployment insurance
Over
65 years Low income Social security (contributory pensions)
Non-contributory pensions (transfer income)
General
popu la -
tion
Poor health care Health insurance
Poor housing quality
Housing subsidies
Mortgage facilities
Infrastructure investment
Source: Managing Social Risks in Argentina (World Bank, 2000) (as cited in [Holzmann,
2001: p. 21]).
172 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, маркетинг, 2017, 4
Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
Com par ing un em ploy ment fig ures for the coun tries un der study, we see that
un em ploy ment rate in the EU 28 and Po land rose dur ing 2011–2013 and then be -
gan to fall. For Ukraine, the pic ture is quite the re verse: a grad ual drop in the first
three years fol lowed by a no tice able in crease (see Ta ble 2). As stated above, that is a
con se quence of the pro tracted po lit i cal and eco nomic cri sis cou pled with the an -
nex ation of the Cri mea and Rus sia’s mil i tary in ter ven tion in east ern Ukraine.
Table 2
Unemployment dynamics in the EU 28, Poland and Ukraine
Country Age 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EU 28
15–64 9.7 10.6 11.0 10.4 9.6
15–24 21.7 23.2 23.6 22.2 20.4
25–29 12.7 13.9 14.6 13.6 12.4
50–59 7.0 7.5 7.9 7.6 7.2
55–64 6.8 7.3 7.7 7.4 7.0
Poland
15–64 9.8 10.2 10.5 9.1 7.6
15–24 25.8 26.5 27.3 23.9 20.8
25–29 12.0 13.1 13.6 11.8 10.1
50–59 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.2 6.0
55–64 6.9 7.4 7.7 6.8 5.4
Ukraine
15–64 8.0 7.7 7.3 9.4 9.2
15–24 18.6 17.3 17.4 23.1 22.4
25–29 9.2 9.5 8.7 11.1 11.2
50–59 5.1 5.3 5.1 6.0 6.3
Sources: the data of International Labour Organisation (ILO), Eurostat and Labour Force
Survey (LFS) Ukraine.
The un em ploy ment risk is sta tis ti cally rep re sented by (and di rectly cor re -
lated to) an un em ploy ment rate: the higher it is, the more an in di vid ual is likely to
be job less. Ac cord ing to the data of a so cial sur vey con ducted in 2015 by the In sti -
tute of So ci ol ogy of Ukraine’s Na tional Acad emy of Sci ences (within the frame -
work of the pro ject “Ukrai nian So ci ety: Mon i tor ing of So cial Changes”), 11.7%
of re spon dents1 had ex pe ri enced in vol un tary un em ploy ment at least once over
the pre vi ous 12 months [Ukrai nian So ci ety, 2015]. Just un der half of those who
had been made re dun dant over that pe riod, were aged 18–39 years: 21.8% be -
longed to the age group of 18–29 and 27.7% — to the age group of 30–39. Ev ery
fifth re spon dent was be tween 50 and 59 years old. As far as the ed u ca tional at -
tain ment of re spon dents is con cerned, 40.8% of laid-off em ploy ees had grad u ated
from col lege or vo ca tional school and 32.0% had a uni ver sity de gree.
By con trast, in the EU 28 and Po land (over the 2012–2015 pe riod) the high -
est prob a bil ity of drop ping out of the la bour force was re corded among peo ple
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2017, 4 173
Insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment
1 A total of 1,800 respondents aged 18 and over were surveyed across Ukraine (excluding the
occupied territories of Donets’k and Luhans’k regions, Crimea and the city of Sevastopol).
with lower ed u ca tional at tain ment: less than pri mary, pri mary and lower sec ond -
ary, which are clas si fied as ISCED 0–2 (see Table 3).
Table 3
Unemployment risks among people with low educational levels
(ISCED 0–2) in the EU 28 and Poland, 2012–2015, %
Age group Country Year Sex Unemployment risk
15–64 years
EU 28
2013 Male 19.9
2015 Female 18.0
Poland
2013 Female 22.5
2015 Female 17.9
15–24 years
EU 28
2013 Female 31.6
2015 Female 28.1
Poland
2012 Female 39.5
2015 Female 33.2
25–29 years
EU 28
2013 Female 30.1
2015 Female 28.8
Poland
2013 Female 45.8
2015 Male 26.3
50–59 years
EU 28
2013 Male 15.2
2015 Male 14.2
Poland
2013 Male 16.4
2015 Male 13.6
55–64 years
EU 28
2013 Male 14.3
2015 Male 13.7
Poland
2014 Male 14.1
2015 Male 12.1
Sources: the data of ILO, Eurostat. Only the data for years and population groups with
relatively higher unemployment rates are highlighted.
The level of ed u ca tional at tain ment is de fined ac cord ing to the In ter na tional
Stan dard Clas si fi ca tion of Ed u ca tion (ISCED). Ba si cally, there are three cat e -
go ries: less than pri mary, pri mary and lower sec ond ary ed u ca tion (ISCED
2011 lev els 0–2); up per sec ond ary and post-sec ond ary non-ter tiary ed u ca tion
(ISCED 2011 lev els 3 and 4); ter tiary ed u ca tion (ISCED 2011 lev els 5–8). Com -
par a tive clas si fi ca tion of ed u ca tional at tain ment lev els in the EU 28 and Ukraine
is given in Ta ble 4.
As can be seen from Ta ble 3, the max i mum risk of be com ing un em ployed
(45.8%) was borne in 2013 by Pol ish women aged 25–29 years with ISCED lev -
els 0–2. In this coun try, low-ed u cated women be long ing to the age groups of
15–24 and 15–64 are also most likely to be job less. As for Pol ish men with lower
ed u ca tional at tain ment, those aged 25–29 (in 2015) and 50–59 (in 2013) were
more at risk of be com ing un em ployed. In the EU 28, women aged 15–24 and
25–29 to gether with men from older age groups (50–59 and 55–64) were more
likely to take the brunt of unemployment.
174 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, маркетинг, 2017, 4
Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
Table 4
Comparative classification of educational attainment levels
in the EU 28 and Ukraine
Educational levels EU 28 Ukraine
ISCED 0–2
Less than primary, primary
and lower secondary
education
Less than primary education or
without formal education
Basic general secondary education
ISCED 3–4
Upper secondary and post-
secon dary non-tertiary
education
Complete general secondary
education
Vocational education
ISCED 5–8 Tertiary education
Incomplete higher education
Basic higher education
Complete higher education
Sources: International Standard Classification of Education ISCED 2011 : UNESCO
Insti tute for Statistics, 2012. Available at: http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/
documents/international-standard-classification-of-education-isced-2011-en.pdf
Education in Ukraine // Ukraine Channel. Available at: http://www.ukraine.com/
educa tion/
In Ukraine, data on un em ploy ment risks with re gard to ed u ca tional at tain -
ment are open to the pub lic only for the age groups of 15–24 and 15–64. Among
15 to 24 year olds, men with ISCED lev els 0–2 in 2014 and 5–8 in 2015 had the
high est like li hood of be ing out of work: 25.2% and 24.6% re spec tively.
As we can notice in Table 5, Polish women (especially those between the ages
of 15 and 24 years) had the highest likelihood of being unemployed in 2011–
2013. However, the situation changed during the next two years: in 2015,
unemployment risks among women in Poland were lower than in the EU 28 and
Ukraine, except for the age group of 15–24 whose probability of being out of a job
was a bit higher (20.9%) than that of the EU (19.5%).
For Ukraine, the picture was quite different. In the first three years, Uk -
rainian women were not as much at risk of becoming unemployed as in the EU 28
and Poland. In 2014, women belonging to the age group of 15–24 were more at
risk of becoming unemployed in Ukraine (22.4%) than in the EU (21.4%), but
less than in Poland (25.5%). In 2015, 15- to 24-year-old women had a higher
probability of becoming unemployed in Ukraine (21.9%) than in the EU 28 and
Poland; in 2015, Ukrainian women aged 25–29 years had a higher likelihood of
being out of a job (10.8%) than their Polish (9.8%) but lower than their EU 28
counterparts (12.3%). As for 50 to 59 year olds, they had a low probability of
being unemployed during the entire period under study (2011–2015) in Ukraine
compared to the EU 28 and Poland.
Tak ing a closer look at the un em ploy ment fig ures for all age groups, we can
see that youn ger re spon dents (15 to 24 year olds) are most likely to be out of
work, re gard less of where they live and when they were sur veyed. So, find ing a
job af ter school, col lege or uni ver sity is fairly tough.
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2017, 4 175
Insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment
Table 5
Unemployment risks among the age groups of 15–24,
25–29 and 25–59 years old in the EU 28, Poland and Ukraine
Country Age group Sex 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EU 28
15–24
Female 21.0 22.4 22.9 21.4 19.5
Male 22.3 23.9 24.3 22.8 21.0
25–29
Female 12.8 13.9 14.5 13.7 12.3
Male 12.6 13.9 14.6 13.6 12.5
25–59
Female 8.7 9.5 9.9 9.5 8.8
Male 8.3 9.1 9.6 9.0 8.3
Poland
15–24
Female 28.8 30.0 30.1 25.5 20.9
Male 23.6 24.1 25.4 22.7 20.7
25–29
Female 13.7 15.4 15.6 12.8 9.8
Male 10.7 11.3 11.9 11.0 10.2
25–59
Female 8.9 9.5 9.8 8.5 6.9
Male 7.5 8.0 8.2 7.2 6.2
Ukraine
15–24
Female 18.7 16.1 16.3 22.4 21.9
Male 18.6 18.1 18.2 23.7 22.7
25–29
Female 8.2 8.0 7.4 9.7 10.8
Male 9.9 10.6 9.6 12.2 11.4
25–59
Female 5.8 5.8 5.6 6.4 7.2
Male 7.7 7.6 7.1 9.6 9.1
Sources: the data of ILO, Eurostat, LFS Ukraine.
An in di vid ual’s ed u ca tional at tain ment is usu ally pos i tively cor re lated to
their chances to get a job: more ed u cated job seek ers are ex pected to suc ceed at a
job in ter view. This is true for the EU 28 and Po land, but not for Ukraine, where
15 to 24 year olds with lower ed u ca tional at tain ment (ISCED lev els 0–2) have
lower odds of get ting hired than their more ed u cated coun ter parts. Sur pris ingly,
young peo ple who have at tained higher ed u ca tion (ISCED 5–8) are least likely
to be em ployed (see Fig ure 1).
This graph also high lights un em ploy ment risks among young men and wo -
men with dif fer ent ed u ca tional at tain ments in the coun tries un der study. In
Ukraine, males aged 15–24 years have fewer chances of get ting hired than their
fe male coun ter parts, ir re spec tive of their ed u ca tional level; the same goes for the
EU 28 (ex cept for those with ISCED lev els 0–2, where men and women have al -
most equal prob a bil ity of be ing out of a job). In Po land, by con trast, 15- to
24-year old fe males (apart from those with ISCED lev els 5–8) are more at risk of
be com ing un em ployed than their male coun ter parts. More over, Pol ish young
men and women with ISCED lev els 0–2 have the high est like li hood of be ing un -
em ployed (among all coun tries un der study)1.
176 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, маркетинг, 2017, 4
Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
1 Only 2015 data are presented here.
Fig. 1. Unemployment risks among 15- to 24-year old men and women
depending on their educational levels in the EU 28, Poland and Ukraine.
Sim i larly, in the EU 28, young peo ple aged 15–24 and 25–29 years with
ISCED lev els 0–2 have the low est prob a bil ity of be ing em ployed; this par tic u -
larly ap plies to women (see Fig. 2). Thus, lack of ed u ca tion and skills dra mat i -
cally low ers a per son’s changes to find a job (at best, they will end up do ing ca sual
work) and de prives them of any re li able sources of in come. Less ed u cated peo ple
not only have lim ited ac cess to the la bour mar ket [Kirnos, 2011], they are also
more ex posed to the risk of pov erty and so cial ex clu sion. Pov erty, in turn, en tails
lack of op por tu nity [Sen, 2009].
Ta ble 6 gives a gen eral pic ture of un em ploy ment risks among men and
women from dif fer ent age groups in the coun tries un der study. Since we have al -
ready ana lysed un em ploy ment fig ures for youn ger groups, it would be ad vis able
to con sider older adults. We can see that, over the pe riod 2011–2015, the like li -
hood of be ing out of work among 50 to 59 and 55 to 64 year olds slightly in -
creased in the EU 28, but de creased in Po land. In Ukraine, both men and
women aged be tween 50 and 59 were less at risk of be ing out of a job in 2011
than in 2015 — due to the un fa vour able socio-eco nomic sit u a tion. Even so,
women had more chances of be ing em ployed than men. This can be ex plained by
two rea sons. First, in Ukraine women out num ber men: ac cord ing to the 2001
cen sus, the sex ra tio for Ukraine’s pop u la tion was 862 males per 1,000 fe males.
Sex im bal ance is par tic u larly no tice able in older age groups be cause of high
mor tal ity among work ing-age men in this coun try. Sec ond, around one-third of
Ukraine’s ru ral pop u la tion are self-em ployed; most of them (women in par tic u -
lar) are in volved in sub sis tence farm ing where they can al ways be “in work”,
even if they are not paid for their la bour.
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2017, 4 177
Insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EU 28,
15-24,
ISCED
Poland,
15-24,
ISCED
Ukraine,
15-24,
ISCED
EU 28,
15-24,
ISCED ISCED ISCED ISCED ISCED ISCED
Poland,
15-24,
Ukraine,
15-24,
EU 28,
15-24,
Poland,
15-24,
Ukraine,
15-24,
Country, age and education
%
Females Males
0-2 0-2 0-2 3-4 3-4 3-4 5-8 5-8 5-8
Fig. 2. Un em ploy ment risks by ed u ca tional at tain ment level, sex and age
in the EU 28, 2015, %
Table 6
Unemployment risks among males and females from different age groups
in the EU 28, Poland and Ukraine
Age
group
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males
EU 28
15–64 9.8 9.7 10.6 10.6 11.0 11.0 10.5 10.3 9.6 9.5
15–24 21.0 22.3 22.4 23.9 22.9 24.3 21.4 22.8 19.5 21.0
25–29 12.8 12.6 13.9 13.9 14.5 14.6 13.7 13.6 12.3 12.5
50–59 6.7 7.3 7.1 7.9 7.5 8.3 7.3 7.9 6.8 7.5
55–64 6.1 7.3 6.6 7.8 6.9 8.3 6.7 7.9 6.3 7.5
Poland
15–64 10.5 9.1 11.0 9.5 11.2 9.8 9.7 8.6 7.8 7.4
15–24 28.8 23.6 30.0 24.1 30.1 25.4 25.5 22.7 20.9 20.7
25–29 13.7 10.7 15.4 11.3 15.6 11.9 12.8 11.0 9.8 10.2
50–59 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.1 7.3 5.9 6.0
55–64 6.2 7.4 6.6 8.0 6.9 8.3 6.4 7.1 4.8 5.9
178 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, маркетинг, 2017, 4
Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15-64,
ISCED
0-2
15-64,
ISCED
5-8
15-24,
ISCED
3-4
25-29,
ISCED
0-2
25-29,
ISCED
5-8
50-59,
ISCED
3-4
55-64,
ISCED
0-2
55-64,
ISCED
5-8
Age and education
%
Females Males
Age
group
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males
Ukraine
15–64 7.0 8.9 6.6 8.6 6.3 8.2 7.6 10.9 8.2 10.2
15–24 18.7 18.6 16.1 18.1 16.3 18.2 22.4 23.7 21.9 22.7
25–29 8.2 9.9 8.0 10.6 7.4 9.6 9.7 12.2 10.8 11.4
50–59 4.2 6.0 4.1 6.5 4.4 5.7 4.4 7.6 4.6 7.9
Sources: the data of ILO, Eurostat, LFS Ukraine.
The bot tom line is that la bour mar ket risks are un evenly dis trib uted among
dif fer ent so cial, age and sex groups. Much of the bur den of un em ploy ment falls on
new en trants, low-skilled work ers and young women. As a rule, peo ple face the
risk of be ing out of work (hence, liv ing with out a steady in come) more than once
dur ing their life times. In tra di tional so ci et ies, fam ily is sup posed to al le vi ate this
type of risk as there is no clear sep a ra tion be tween work and fam ily do mains. In
mod ern so ci et ies, so cial se cu rity mech a nisms can some how re duce the im pact of
un em ploy ment and eco nomic hard ships. How ever, post-in dus trial la bour mar -
ket is gen er at ing new risks [Bonoli, 2005] that are not very likely to be dampened
by government policies or family.
One of the pur poses of risk anal y sis is to iden tify the most ap pro pri ate mix of
risk man age ment strat e gies (pre ven tion, mit i ga tion, cop ing, etc.) and ar range -
ments (in for mal, mar ket-based, pub licly pro vided or man dated). Some of them
are presented in Table 7.
The fol low ing things should be con sid ered while choos ing the most suit able
strat egy: what type of risk is go ing to be ad dressed, who are the tar get groups
(those whose cur rent sit u a tion poses a prob lem to be dealt with; e. g., for mal/in -
for mal sec tor work ers, peo ple liv ing in per sis tent pov erty, etc.), what tools will be
needed to han dle the risk and how ef fi cient they are, what so cial ac tors (fam i lies,
com mu ni ties, gov ern men tal agen cies, non-gov ern men tal or gani sa tions, mar ket
in sti tu tions, etc.) are ex pected to be in volved. A good risk man age ment strat egy
is typ i cally multi-sectoral and not confined to social protection.
In the case of Ukraine, for ex am ple, tack ling youth un em ploy ment re quires
im prov ing qual ity of ed u ca tion, par tic u larly of vo ca tional train ing — in or der to
pro vide grad u ates with the knowl edge and skills needed in the la bour mar ket.
Per son-cen tred re cruit ment, em ployer en gage ment (aimed at en hanc ing the em -
ploy abil ity of stu dents) and com mu nity en gage ment are seen as ef fec tive so lu -
tions to this prob lem; they are also in line with the Eu ro pean em ploy ment strat -
egy. In the con text of com mu nity en gage ment, spe cial at ten tion should be paid to
trade un ions (as a civil so ci ety or gani sa tion) that are sup posed to help in suf fi -
ciently com pet i tive job seek ers start or go back to work. Im prov ing trans port and
com mu ni ca tions is also high on the agenda as it ensures better access to the
labour market.
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2017, 4 179
Insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment
End of Table 6
Table 7
Examples of strategies and arrangements for social risk management
Arrangements/
strategies Informal Market-based Public
Risk reduction
Less risky production
Migration
Proper feeding and
weaning practices
Engaging in hygiene
and other disease-
preventing activities
In-service training
Financial literacy
Company-based and
market-driven labour
standards
Labour standards
Pre-service training
Labour market
policies
Child labour reduc -
tion interventions
Disability policies
Good macroeconomic
policies AIDS and
other disease
prevention
Risk mitigation
Portfolio
Multiple jobs
Investment in human
and physical assets
Investment in social
capital (rituals, re -
cipro cal gift giving)
Investment in
multiple financial
assets
Microfinance
Multi-pillar pension
systems
Asset transfers
Protection of property
rights (especially for
women)
Support for extending
financial markets to
the poor
Insurance
Marriage/family
Community
arrangements
Share tenancy
Tied labour
Old-age annuities
Disability, accident
and other personal
insurance
Crop, fire and other
damage insurance
Mandated/provided
insurance for unemp -
loyment, old age, dis -
ability, survivorship,
sickness, etc.
Risk coping
Selling real assets
Borrowing from
neighbours
Intra-community
transfers/charity
Sending children to
work
Dis-saving in human
capital
Selling financial assets
Borrowing from banks
Transfers/social
assistance
Subsidies
Public works
Source: [Holzmann, 2001: p. 9].
An other way of in creas ing em ploy ment, es pe cially in emerg ing econ o mies
(Ukraine also be longs to them), is cre at ing jobs through par tic i pa tion in global
sup ply chains (GSCs). GSCs jobs are suit able for low-ed u cated women, youth
180 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, маркетинг, 2017, 4
Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
and mi grants [World Em ploy ment and So cial Out look, 2015: p. 145], i. e. those
who have dif fi culty find ing reg u lar em ploy ment. Nev er the less, global eco nomic
in te gra tion has a num ber of draw backs: it has caused many coun tries and sec tors
to face ma jor chal lenges of in come in equal ity, con tin u ing high lev els of un em -
ploy ment and pov erty, vul ner a bil ity of econ o mies to ex ter nal shocks, and the
growth of both un pro tected work and the in for mal econ omy [ILO Dec la ra tion,
2008: p. 5]. Global changes have led to the rise of un em ploy ment in ad vanced
econ o mies since man u fac tur ing had shifted to emerg ing econ o mies [Spence,
2011; Park et al., 2013].
One more ma jor chal lenge to both Ukraine and the EU is pop u la tion age ing.
This means that ever more peo ple will be in need of care and sup port. Re spond ing
to this chal lenge im plies the de vel op ment and pro vi sion of a broad range of ser -
vices for older adults, as well as the rise of so cial en tre pre neur ship, “non-profit
com mu nity” [Rifkin, 2014], which would gen er ate ad di tional employment op -
por tu ni ties.
Ukraine, be ing on the road to the EU mem ber ship, ought to ad dress all of
these press ing is sues in the con text of bring ing na tional leg is la tion and pol i cies
into com pli ance with the EU law.
The EU mem ber states’ pol i cies in the fields of so cial in clu sion and em ploy -
ment are sup ported and com ple mented by the Eu ro pean Com mis sion [Em ploy -
ment, So cial Af fairs and In clu sion, s.a.]. Smart, sus tain able and in clu sive growth1
are the three key pri or i ties de fined by the “Eu rope 2020 Strat egy”, adopted by
the Eu ro pean Coun cil on 17 June 2010. The Strat egy en com passes five prin ci pal
ar eas: a) em ploy ment; b) re search and de vel op ment (R&D); c) cli mate change
and en ergy; d) ed u ca tion; e) pov erty and so cial ex clu sion. Each of the EU mem -
ber states has adopted its own national targets in each of these areas.
The “Eu rope 2020” aims to lift at least 20 mil lion peo ple out of pov erty and
so cial ex clu sion and to in crease em ploy ment of the pop u la tion aged 20–64 to
75%. The “Plat form against Pov erty and So cial Ex clu sion” and the “Agenda for
New Skills and Jobs” are some of the flag ship ini tia tives within the frame work of
the “Eu rope 2020”, which should be able to sup port ef forts to achieve these aims.
The Strat egy in volves re duc ing the early school leav ing rates in the EU to be low
10% and in creas ing com ple tion of ter tiary or equiv a lent education to at least 40%
by 2020.
Pro pos als for better job match ing and more ef fec tive ways to ana lyse and pre -
dict which skills will be needed in to mor row’s la bour mar ket are pre sented in the
pol icy doc u ment “New Skills for New Jobs”. This set of mea sures launched in De -
cem ber 2008 should not only help to bridge the gap be tween ed u ca tion and em -
ploy ment but also fa cil i tate the re in te gra tion into the la bour mar ket of work ers
who have been made re dun dant — by or gan is ing re train ing and skills upgrading
programmes.
Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, мар ке тинг, 2017, 4 181
Insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment
1 Smart growth is defined as “developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation”;
sustainable growth means “promoting a more resource-efficient, greener and more competitive
economy; inclusive growth implies “fostering a high-employment economy delivering social
and territorial cohesion” [Europe, 2010: p. 10].
In ad di tion, the “New Skills for New Jobs” ini tia tive stresses the need for
mod erni sa tion of la bour mar kets through flexicurity pol i cies [New Skills for New
Jobs, 2008: p. 15]. Here, flexicurity is to be un der stood as an in te grated strat egy
for en hanc ing, at the same time, flex i bil ity and se cu rity in the la bour mar ket. It
at tempts to rec on cile em ploy ers’ need for a flex i ble workforce with work ers’ need
for se cu rity — con fi dence that they will not face long periods of unemployment.
An other ef fec tive tool for deal ing with youth un em ploy ment is the “Youth
Em ploy ment Pack age” adopted on 5 De cem ber 2012. The Pack age in cludes a
“Rec om men da tion to Mem ber States on In tro duc ing the Youth Guar an tee” to
en sure that all young peo ple up to age 25 re ceive a qual ity of fer of a job, con tin ued
ed u ca tion, an ap pren tice ship or a traineeship within four months of leav ing for -
mal ed u ca tion or be com ing un em ployed. The pro posed rec om men da tion ur ges
the EU mem ber states to es tab lish strong part ner ships with stake holders, en sure
early in ter ven tion by em ploy ment ser vices and other part ners sup port ing young
peo ple, take sup port ive mea sures to en able la bour in te gra tion, make full use of
the Eu ro pean So cial Fund and other struc tural funds to that end, as sess and con -
tin u ously im prove the “Youth Guar an tee” schemes and im ple ment these sche -
mes rap idly. To fa cil i tate school-to-work-tran si tions, the Pack age also launch ed
a con sul ta tion of Eu ro pean so cial part ners on a “Qual ity Frame work for Trainee -
ships” (April 2012) so as to en able young peo ple to ac quire high-qual ity work ex -
pe ri ence un der safe con di tions. Fur ther more, it an nounced a “Eu ro pean Al li ance
for Ap pren tice ships” (July 2013) to im prove the qual ity and sup ply of ap pren -
tice ships avail able by spread ing suc cess ful apprenticeship schemes across the EU
member states and out lined ways to surmount obstacles to mobility for young
people.
All things con sid ered, fur ther re search will fo cus on the ad ap ta tion of na tio -
nal leg is la tion and pol icy on em ploy ment to the EU law and, in par tic u lar, on the
con tri bu tion that these mea sures can make to low er ing un em ploy ment risks
among in suf fi ciently com pet i tive pop u la tion groups in the labour market.
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184 Со ци о ло гия: те о рия, ме то ды, маркетинг, 2017, 4
Gul’barshyn Chepurko, Iryna Novak
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| id | nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-182152 |
| institution | Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| issn | 1563-4426 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-12-07T18:15:02Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Iнститут соціології НАН України |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | Chepurko, G. Novak, I. 2021-12-15T16:18:00Z 2021-12-15T16:18:00Z 2017 Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment / G. Chepurko, I. Novak // Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг. — 2017. — № 4. — С. 169-184. — англ 1563-4426 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/182152 331.56/57 Since 2013, Ukrainians have been increasingly at risk of becoming unemployed — due to the ongoing political and economic crisis along with the annexation of the Crimea and armed conflict in the east of the country. Furthermore, Ukraine's striving towards EU membership necessitates introducing and implementing the European employment strategy (EES). The purpose of this research paper is twofold: first, to analyse the risk of becoming unemployed among insufficiently competitive population groups in Ukraine, Poland and 28 EU member countries as a whole; second, using the results of comparative analysis, to formulate the national employment policy priorities in accordance with European requirements. en Iнститут соціології НАН України Социология: теория, методы, маркетинг Статьи Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment Article published earlier |
| spellingShingle | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment Chepurko, G. Novak, I. Статьи |
| title | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment |
| title_full | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment |
| title_fullStr | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment |
| title_short | Insufficiently Competitive Population Groups in the Labour Market: The Risk of Unemployment |
| title_sort | insufficiently competitive population groups in the labour market: the risk of unemployment |
| topic | Статьи |
| topic_facet | Статьи |
| url | https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/182152 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chepurkog insufficientlycompetitivepopulationgroupsinthelabourmarkettheriskofunemployment AT novaki insufficientlycompetitivepopulationgroupsinthelabourmarkettheriskofunemployment |