Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies
The modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning is based on the mathematical support of fore sight methodology aimed at the creation of alternative scenarios and the cognitive modeling to build scenarios for the development of a desired future and ways of their implementation....
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nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-1825092025-02-09T17:44:47Z Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies Моделювання сценаріїв планування підземного будівництва на основі методологій передбачення та когнітивного моделювання Pankratova, N.D. Pankratov, V.A. Інформатика та кібернетика The modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning is based on the mathematical support of fore sight methodology aimed at the creation of alternative scenarios and the cognitive modeling to build scenarios for the development of a desired future and ways of their implementation. We propose to use these methodologies together: the results obtained at the stage of the foresight methodology should be used as initial data for the cognitive modeling. Using the foresight process at the first stage of modeling allows us, with the help of expert assessment procedures, to identify critical technologies and to construct the alternatives of scenarios with quantitative characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, the cognitive modeling allows one to build causal relationships with the consideration of a large number of interconnections and interdependences. The developed strategy is applied to the study of underground construction objects in order to select reasonable scenarios for their future development. Моделювання сценаріїв для планування розвитку підземного будівництва базується на математичному забезпеченні методології передбачення з метою створення альтернатив сценаріїв та когнітивного моделювання для побудови сценаріїв розвитку бажаного майбутнього та шляхів їх реалізації. Ці методології пропонується використовувати разом: отримані результати на етапі методології передбачення використовують як вихідні дані для когнітивного моделювання. Використання процесу передбачення на першому етапі моделювання дозволяє за допомогою процедур експертної оцінки виявити критичні технології та побудувати альтернативні сценарії з кількісними характеристиками. Для обґрунтованої реалізації певно го сценарію використовується когнітивне моделювання, яке дозволяє будувати причинно-наслідкові зв’язки з урахуванням великої кількості взаємозв’язків та взаємозалежностей. Розроблена стратегія застосовується для вивчення об’єктів підземного будівництва з метою вибору обґрунтованих сценаріїв їх подальшого розвитку. This material is based upon work supported in part by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine under Grant 2020.01/0247. 2021 Article Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies / N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov // Доповіді Національної академії наук України. — 2021. — № 5. — С. 18-24. — Бібліогр.: 11 назв. — англ. 1025-6415 DOI: doi.org/10.15407/dopovidi2021.05.018 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/182509 519.876 en Доповіді НАН України application/pdf Видавничий дім "Академперіодика" НАН України |
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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
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English |
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Інформатика та кібернетика Інформатика та кібернетика |
| spellingShingle |
Інформатика та кібернетика Інформатика та кібернетика Pankratova, N.D. Pankratov, V.A. Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies Доповіді НАН України |
| description |
The modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning is based on the mathematical support of
fore sight methodology aimed at the creation of alternative scenarios and the cognitive modeling to build scenarios
for the development of a desired future and ways of their implementation. We propose to use these methodologies
together: the results obtained at the stage of the foresight methodology should be used as initial data for the cognitive
modeling. Using the foresight process at the first stage of modeling allows us, with the help of expert assessment
procedures, to identify critical technologies and to construct the alternatives of scenarios with quantitative
characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, the cognitive modeling allows one to
build causal relationships with the consideration of a large number of interconnections and interdependences. The
developed strategy is applied to the study of underground construction objects in order to select reasonable scenarios
for their future development. |
| format |
Article |
| author |
Pankratova, N.D. Pankratov, V.A. |
| author_facet |
Pankratova, N.D. Pankratov, V.A. |
| author_sort |
Pankratova, N.D. |
| title |
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies |
| title_short |
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies |
| title_full |
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies |
| title_fullStr |
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies |
| title_sort |
modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies |
| publisher |
Видавничий дім "Академперіодика" НАН України |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| topic_facet |
Інформатика та кібернетика |
| url |
https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/182509 |
| citation_txt |
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies / N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov // Доповіді Національної академії наук України. — 2021. — № 5. — С. 18-24. — Бібліогр.: 11 назв. — англ. |
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Доповіді НАН України |
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| fulltext |
18
ОПОВІДІ
НАЦІОНАЛЬНОЇ
АКАДЕМІЇ НАУК
УКРАЇНИ
ISSN 1025-6415. Dopov. Nac. akad. nauk Ukr. 2021. № 5: 18—24
Ц и т у в а н н я: Pankratova N.D., Pankratov V.A. Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction
planning based on the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Допов. Нац. акад. наук Укр. 2021. № 5.
С. 18—24. https://doi.org/10.15407/dopovidi2021.05.018
Regulation of the urban development with the purpose to increase the ecological standards and
life safety in constantly growing metropolises is one of the most urgent, though insufficiently
researched and difficult, world problems [1-3]. It is leads to the seeking of new places for the
production facilities and social and other objects of the human activity. The space of megacities
created in the process of underground construction becomes a new, underground habitat, which
should be comfortable and safe for humans.
Strategy of modeling of the scenarios for the underground construction planning. The
proposed strategy is based on a mathematical support of the foresight methodology aimed at
the creation of alternative scenarios and the cognitive modeling of scenarios for the planning of
a desired future for underground constructions and ways of their implementation. The metho-
https://doi.org/10.15407/dopovidi2021.05.018
UDC 519.876
N.D. Pankratova, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6372-5813
V.A. Pankratov, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8264-5835
Institute for Applied System Analysis NTU of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”
E-mail: natalidmp@gmail.com, pankratov.volodya@gmail.com
Modeling of scenarios for the underground
construction planning based on the foresight
and cognitive modeling methodologies
Presented by Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine N.D. Pankratova
The modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning is based on the mathematical support of
fore sight methodology aimed at the creation of alternative scenarios and the cognitive modeling to build scenarios
for the development of a desired future and ways of their implementation. We propose to use these methodologies
together: the results obtained at the stage of the foresight methodology should be used as initial data for the cognitive
modeling. Using the foresight process at the first stage of modeling allows us, with the help of expert assessment
procedures, to identify critical technologies and to construct the alternatives of scenarios with quantitative
characteristics. For the justified implementation of a particular scenario, the cognitive modeling allows one to
build causal relationships with the consideration of a large number of interconnections and interdependences. The
developed strategy is applied to the study of underground construction objects in order to select reasonable scenarios
for their future development.
Keywords: foresight, cognitive modeling, urban underground construction, geological environment, decision-making.
ІНФОРМАТИКА ТА КІБЕРНЕТИКА
INFORMATICS AND CYBERNETICS
https://doi.org/10.15407/dopovidi2021.05.018
19ISSN 1025-6415. Допов. Нац. акад. наук Укр. 2021. № 5
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight...
dological and mathematical support of a strategy in the form of a two-stage model based on a
combination of the foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies is developed [4]. The invol-
vement of scanning methods, STEEP analysis, brainstorming, and SWOT analysis at the first
level of the stage allows the expert assessment to identify critical technologies in the field of
economic, social, environmental, technical, technological, information and other directions [5].
The basis of this level is the analysis subsystems, which are connected by direct and feedback
links to the monitoring system and field tests. The quantitative data obtained after the analysis
and processing are the initial ones for the solution of foresight tasks. In this paper identifying
the critical technologies, the SWOT analysis method is used. For the purpose of ranking the
obtained critical technologies and identifying the most topical ones, the TOPSIS (Technique
for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) method is applied [6]. According to
the VIKOR method, a compromise solution to the problem should be an alternative that is closest
to the ideal solution. Moreover, to assess the degree of alternative proximity to the ideal solu-
tion, a multicriterial measure is used [7]. As soon as the critical technologies are identified we
cross to the second level, using the qualitative methods for the creation of alternatives to the
scenarios of socio-economic systems [4].
When the output information for the cognitive modeling is given in the statistical form, the
method of constructing an integrated indicator data is proposed [8]. It allows one, at the con-
struction of a cognitive map, to reasonably add or remove its vertex to break a sequence of in-
terconnected nodes.
The proposed strategy for the development of a socio-economic system allows us to con-
struct a science-based procedure to implement a priority alternative scenario of different nature
complex systems, by using the cognitive modeling. In the framework of the foregoing, let us call
the studied complex system “Natural-technical geosystem”. According to the developed me-
thodology of cognitive modeling of complex systems [4], the modeling is carried out in some sta-
ges. At the first stage, using theoretical and practical data on the underground urban planning
obtained with the methodology of foresight, a cognitive model is developed. In this case, a
two-level cognitive model was obtained, since the conditions and factors that determine this
comp lex system belong to different levels of the hierarchy. For example, “Environmental risks”
can be attributed to the upper, more general level of the hierarchy, while “Engineering and geo-
logical processes” to the lower one.
At the first stage, we used cognitive models such as a cognitive map — a sign oriented
graph (1) and a functional graph in the form of a weighted sign digraph [4, 9].
,G V E á ñ , (1)
where G is a cognitive map in which V are concepts, a finite set of vertices of the cognitive
map , 1, 2, ... ; { }i ijV V i k E e — the set of arcs ije of the graph, , 1, 2, ...i j m , reflect the
re lationship between the vertices iV and jV ; the influence of iV on jV in the situation under
study can be positive (+1), when an increase (decrease) in one factor leads to an increase
(decrease) in another one, negative (–1), when an increase (decrease) in one factor leads to a
decrease (increase) in another one, or absent (0). The cognitive map G corresponds to the
square matrix of relations GA
20 ISSN 1025-6415. Dopov. Nac. akad. nauk Ukr. 2021. № 5
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
1, is connected with ,
{ }
0, otherwise.
i j
G ij
if V V
A a
The ratio aij can take the value “+1” or “–1”. The relation between the variables (interac-
tion of factors) is a quantitative or qualitative description of the effect of changes in one variable
on others at the corresponding vertices.
The Vector Functional Graph
, , ( , ),G X F X E á ñ ,
where G is a cognitive map; X is the set of vertex parameters, and ( , )F X E is the arc trans for-
mation functional.
At the second stage of the cognitive modeling, to study the properties of the cognitive model,
we used methods of structural stability and perturbation resistance analysis, methods for analyz-
ing the model connectivity (simplicial analysis), and graph theory methods [4, 9—11].
At the third stage of the cognitive modeling, to determine the possible development of pro-
cesses in a complex system and to construct the development scenarios, we used the impulse pro-
cess model (modeling the propagation of disturbances in cognitive models) [11]:
–1
:
( 1) ( ) ( , , ) ( ) ( )v vi i j
j ij
k
i j ij vi
v e e E
x n x n f x x e P n Q n
, (2)
where ( ), ( 1)x n x n are the values of the indicator at the vertex iV at the simulation steps at
the time t n and the next 1; ( )jt n P n is the momentum that existed at the vertex jV at
the time ;t n 1 2{ , , ..., }( )
iV kQ n q q q is the vector of external pulses (disturbing or cont-
rolling actions) introduced to the vertices iV at the time n.
Modeling of Underground Construction. The first stage. Cognitive Model Development.
Table presents data on the vertices (concepts) of the hierarchical cognitive model without re-
ference to a specific territory, in a generalized form. We used generalizing concepts (indicators,
factors) independent of the specifics, which can be disclosed and taken into account in the fu-
ture, when developing the lower levels of the hierarchical model. In Table, the vertices of the
upper (first level) are denoted as , 5, 11, 13, 15, 16iI V i .
The cognitive model is a simulation model that makes it possible not to conduct an expe-
riment on a “living” system, but to simulate its behavior and possible future development under
the influence of various factors, generating new knowledge about the system. This allows one
to justify the management decisions in a given situation.
The second stage. Before using the cognitive model to determine its possible behavior, the
various properties of the model are realized. In this case, the structural stability, perturbation
resistance analysis, and connectivity of the model must be considered. The results of the analysis
are compared with the available information on the underground construction.
Resistance to perturbations. The cognitive model GI was not resistant to perturbations
according to the accepted criterion [10, 11]: the maximum modulo M root of the characte-
ristic equation of the matrix of relations of the graph GI is 1.82 1M .
21ISSN 1025-6415. Допов. Нац. акад. наук Укр. 2021. № 5
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight...
Structural stability. The analysis of the ratio of the number of stabilizing cycles (35 nega-
tive feedbacks) and process accelerator cycles (33 positive feedbacks) indicates the structural
stability of such a system [11].
The given example of the analysis of the cycles of the cognitive model showed the variety
of cycles of the cause and effect relationships that exist in complex systems. There are 68 of them
in the analyzed system. Without an appropriate theoretical analysis, there is a great risk of the
human factor in making managerial decisions, because its consequences may not be obvious
due to the complexity of interactions in the system.
The third stage of modeling. The scenario analysis is designed to forecast possible trends in
the development of situations on the model. To generate scenarios of the development of the
system, the impacts are introduced into the vertices of the cognitive map in the form of a set of
impulses. The impulse process formula has the form (2).
Let us introduce perturbations Q of different sizes (normalized) to any of the vertices, as
well as to their combination. In connection with a large number of theoretically possible variants
of introduced disturbances, it is expedient to develop a plan for a computational experiment
before excluding pulse simulation, eliminating at least almost impossible variants. Introducing
disturbances to the vertices, the decision-maker is looking for the answer to the question: “What
will happen if ...?” The software system gives possibility, in the process of pulse modeling and
The vertices of the hierarchical cognitive map
“Natural-technical geosystem”
Code
Vertex
explanation
Vertex
assignment
I – V11 The viability of the underground urban development Indicative
I – V13 Disasters, extreme and emergency situations Perturbing
I – V15 Environmental risks Perturbing
I – V16 Economic risks Perturbing
I – V6 Genetic type and lithological composition of soils Basic
V1 Mountain and hydrostatic pressure, seismic impact Basic
V2 Surface Static Load Index Basic
V3 The indicator of the static load of the surrounding soil massif Basic
V4 Existing underground facilities Disturbing
V6 Estimated soil resistance Basic
V7 Aquifers and High Water Disturbing
V8 Relief Type and Morphometry Basic
V9 Engineering and geological processes Disturbing
V10 Mining construction technologies Regulating
V12 The level of comfort of the work and rest during the construction
and operation of underground structures
Indicative
V14 Construction, operational, managementrisks Disturbing
V17 Staff qualifications Regulating
V18 Industrial Safety Basic
V19 Quality and construction time Regulating
22 ISSN 1025-6415. Dopov. Nac. akad. nauk Ukr. 2021. № 5
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
analysis of the obtained results, to introduce the controlling or disturbing influences at any
modeling step. This allows us to change (correct) scenarios in the model dynamics and to de-
termine the effects that bring the processes closer to the desired ones.
Here, we present the results of a pulse modeling of one of the best scenarios. Suppose impro-
ving Engineering and geological processes ( 9V ), Mining construction technologies ( 10V ), Staff
qualifications ( 17V ), Quality and construction time ( 19V ), but there are Disasters, extreme and
emergency situations ( 13I V ).
Control actions of scenario:
9 10 17 19 131, 1, 1, 1, 1q q q q q , the perturbation vector 1 9{ 0, Q q q
10 13 17 191, 1, 1, 1, 1}q q q q .
The results of a pulse modeling are presented in Fig., a for vertices 13I V , V9, 10V , 19V ,
15I V , 16I V , 18V , V17, 11I V and Fig., b for vertices 17V , 18V , 19V , I – V11, 12V , 14V , 13I V .
The analysis of the results of a pulse modeling according to this scenario shows that the
introduction of control actions to the indicated vertices can counteract the negative impact of
possible disasters and extreme situations, reducing the impact of economic, environmental, and
technological risks. Thus, the scenario can be considered favorable, since the industrial safety is
increasing.
The process of pulse modeling
23ISSN 1025-6415. Допов. Нац. акад. наук Укр. 2021. № 5
Modeling of scenarios for the underground construction planning based on the foresight...
Conclusion. It is planned to use the proposed strategy for creating the scenarios for real
geotechnological objects of underground construction. This material is an important formalized
part and shows the possibility of making a decision under conditions of the geological uncer-
tainty and multifactorial risks. It should be noted the importance of the proposed strategy to
planning the development of the underground space of Kiev and underwater tunnels under the
Dnieper river. If we approach the construction of such structures as a joint complex (car and
subway tunnels, underground culverts near the Dnieper river, a tunnel on the ring highway, etc.),
the combination of geoinformation, experience, panel tunneling units and equipment, production
and supply of construction materials can dramatically reduce costs for the underground con-
struction of these facilities and improve the quality and efficiency of tunneling. Most importantly,
the use of underground constructions will increase the quality and safety of people’s lives.
This material is based upon work supported in part by the National Research Foundation of
Ukraine under Grant 2020.01/0247
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information and analytical bulletin (scientific and technical journal). No. 2, pp.15-21.
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and Analytical Bulletin (scientific and technical magazine), “Construction and Architecture”, pp.615-628.
4. Innovative development of socio-economic systems based on foresight and cognitive modeling methodo-
logies (2015). Gorelova G.V. & Pankratova N.D. (Eds.). Kiev: Naukova Dumka (in Russian).
5. Zgurovsky, M. Z. & Pankratova, N. D. (2007). System analysis: Theory and Applications. Berlin Heidelberg
New York: Springer.
6. García-Cascale, M. S. & Lamata, M. T. (2012). On rank reversal and TOPSIS method. Mathematical and
Computer Modeling, 56, No. 5–6, pp. 123-132.
7. Mardani, A., Zavadskas, E., Govindan, K., Senin, A. & Jusoh, A. (2016). VIKOR Technique: A Systematic
Review of the State of the Art Literature on Methodologies and Applications. Sustainability, 8, No. 37,
pp. 1-38.
8. Pankratov, V. (2014). Development of the approach to formalization of vector’s indicators of sustainable
development. J. Information Technologies & Knowledge. ITHEA. SOFIA, 8, No. 3, pp. 203-211.
9. Abramova, N. A. & Avdeeva, Z. K. (2008). Cognitive analysis and management of the development of
si tuations: problems of methodology, theory and practice. J. Problems of control, 3, pp. 85-87.
10. Atkin, R. H. (1997). Combinatorial Connectivies in Social Systems. An Application of Simplicial Complex
Structures to the Study of Large Organisations’, Interdisciplinary Systems Research.
11. Roberts, F. (1978). Graph Theory and its Applications to Problems of Society, Society for Industrial and
Applied Mathematics (Philadelphia).
Received 11.07.2021
24 ISSN 1025-6415. Dopov. Nac. akad. nauk Ukr. 2021. № 5
N.D. Pankratova, V.A. Pankratov
Н.Д. Панкратова, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6372-5813
В.А. Панкратов, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8264-5835
Інститут прикладного системного аналізу
НТУ України «Київський політехнічний інститут ім. Ігоря Сікорського»
E-mail: natalidmp@gmail.com, pankratov.volodya@gmail.com
МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ СЦЕНАРІЇВ ПЛАНУВАННЯ
ПІДЗЕМНОГО БУДІВНИЦТВА НА ОСНОВІ МЕТОДОЛОГІЙ
ПЕРЕДБАЧЕННЯ ТА КОГНІТИВНОГО МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ
Моделювання сценаріїв для планування розвитку підземного будівництва базується на математичному
забезпеченні методології передбачення з метою створення альтернатив сценаріїв та когнітивного моделю-
вання для побудови сценаріїв розвитку бажаного майбутнього та шляхів їх реалізації. Ці методології
пропонується використовувати разом: отримані результати на етапі методології передбачення викорис-
товують як вихідні дані для когнітивного моделювання. Використання процесу передбачення на першому
етапі моделювання дозволяє за допомогою процедур експертної оцінки виявити критичні технології та
побудувати альтернативні сценарії з кількісними характеристиками. Для обґрунтованої реалізації пев-
но го сценарію використовується когнітивне моделювання, яке дозволяє будувати причинно-наслід кові
зв’язки з урахуванням великої кількості взаємозв’язків та взаємозалежностей. Розроблена стратегія
застосовується для вивчення об’єктів підземного будівництва з метою вибору обґрунтованих сценаріїв
їх подальшого розвитку.
Ключові слова: передбачення, когнітивне моделювання, міське підземне будівництво, геологічне середовище,
прийняття рішень
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