Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States
Modern world grows very fast every day. The main arrow of every state economy is logistics sector, which is increasing very dynamically. The Turkic Speaking States are locating on the Historical Great Silk Road. The total of territory and population of those countries are 4 732 082 km2 and 157 949 5...
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Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
2021
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| Cite this: | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States / S. Maharramov // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2021. — № 4 (66). — С. 45-52. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. |
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| citation_txt | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States / S. Maharramov // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2021. — № 4 (66). — С. 45-52. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. |
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| description | Modern world grows very fast every day. The main arrow of every state economy is logistics sector, which is increasing very dynamically. The Turkic Speaking States are locating on the Historical Great Silk Road. The total of territory and population of those countries are 4 732 082 km2 and 157 949 505 people. After collapsing the USSR, the five Turkic Speaking States get independence (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan), economy and political policy of those states have been changed to the modern market rules. The most of those countries economy base on the raw materials, gas and petroleum. For exporting of all those raw materials the States need strong logistics systems. The article illustrates the economic development of logistics sectors and trade over between Turkic Speaking States. This research will help to open the problems and find out the solution, implementation of the logistics policy for all of them. Using strong and different fundamental databases, such as statistic of those countries, trade balance, logistics relations, import and export dates, different correlation methods and economic models, the international resource and powerful academic literature help to describe the potential of economy relation and real situations, perspectives, problems and logistics power of the Turkic Speaking States.
Сучасний світ змінюється дуже швидко з кожним днем. Головною складовою економіки кожної держави є логістичний сектор, який зростає дуже динамічно. Тюркомовні держави знаходяться на історичному Великому шовковому шляху. Загальна територія та населення цих країн складають 4 732 082 км2 та 157 949 505 чол. Після розпаду СРСР п'ять тюркомовних держав здобули незалежність (Азербайджан, Казахстан, Узбекистан, Туркменістан та Киргизстан), економіка та політика цих держав були змінені на сучасні ринкові правила. Більшість економік цих країн базується на сировині, газі та нафті. Для експорту всієї цієї сировини державам потрібні міцні логістичні системи. Стаття ілюструє економічний розвиток логістичних секторів та торгівлю між тюркомовними державами. Це дослідження допоможе відкрити проблеми та знайти рішення реалізації логістичної політики для всіх них. Використовуючи потужні та різні фундаментальні бази даних, такі як статистика цих країн, торговельний баланс, логістичні відносини, дати імпорту та експорту, різні методи співвідношення та економічні моделі, міжнародні ресурси та потужна наукова література допомагають описати потенціал економічних відносин та реальні ситуації , перспективи, проблеми та логістичні можливості тюркомовних держав.
Современный мир меняется очень быстро с каждым днем. Основа экономики каждого государства – это логистический сектор, который очень динамично растет. Тюркоязычные государства располагаются на историческом Великом шелковом пути. Общая территория и население этих стран составляют 4 732 082 км2 и 157 949 505 чел. После распада СССР пять тюркоязычных государств получили независимость (Азербайджан, Казахстан, Узбекистан, Туркменистан и Кыргызстан), экономика и политическая политика этих государств были изменены по современным рыночным правилам. Экономика большинства этих стран базируется на сырье, газе и нефти. Для экспорта всего этого сырья государствам нужна сильная система логистики. В статье показано экономическое развитие логистических секторов и торговли между тюркоязычными государствами. Это исследование поможет раскрыть проблемы и найти решение реализации логистической политики для всех. Использование сильных и различных фундаментальных баз данных, таких как статистика этих стран, торговый баланс, логистические отношения, даты импорта и экспорта, различные методы корреляции и экономические модели, международные ресурсы и мощная академическая литература помогают описать потенциал экономических отношений и реальные ситуации, перспективы, проблемы и логистическую мощь тюркоязычных государств.
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S. Maharramov
45
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2021-4(66)-45-52
UDC 330.43:658.7(479.24)
S. Maharramov,
e-mail: meherremov_samir@yahoo.com,
Azerbaijan Tourism and Management University,
Baku, Azerbaijan
ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF AZERBAIJAN'S LOGISTICS CAPABILITIES
IN TERMS OF RELATIONS WITH TURKIC-SPEAKING STATES
Introduction. Despite of global crises pandemic
“COVID-19” the international logistics sectors continue
to grow. Unstable price of oil and other raw materials
strongly affects to the economic relations of those
countries are influence to trade over and logistics sectors
in the last 10 years. Nowadays, the totals GDP of States
is $1089.18 B USD [23]. Turkic-Speaking States have
economic potential but relation in economic, political
and cultural field is promising. Every states have own
economic potential but Azerbaijan plays a unique role
in this tie. The load and containers start from the western
part of Chine which is passing cross all the Turkic
Speaking States reach to the Europe.
The academic paper aims to identify the economic
communications export and import products and to
explain the logistic role of Azerbaijan in the Turkic
Speaking States using different trade and logistics
indexes and economic investigations methods.
Development of logistics sectors depend on to joint to
different logistic projects such as the New Great Silk
Road, TRACECA and others are automatically
positively influences the sustainable development
economy, social – economy, tourism, communication,
investments climate and etc. Using the logistics
potentials and logistics’ corridors the states can make it
to the main engine to relations and economy of the state.
Implementation and mechanism of common policy are
the interests of the stakeholders, privet sectors and all
the Turkic Speaking States.
The current logistics development program for the
Turkic Speaking State is as an impressively tool for all
parts of economy such as increasing trade over, fast
exchange national and international currencies, opens
new jobs, development IT, and growths cultural and
other communications. The main focuses of this article
are the development trade over and logistics potential of
those countries to one tie and role of Azerbaijan in this
economy union. Approaching to logistics sectors as
non – raw and non – petroleum is outstanding influence
to all the State economy. Logistics and transports sectors
of economy are one of the progressively fast income
sectors.
Research methods. In this article has been used
different research methods and programs such as
Eviews Application Software Package for econometric
modeling, the Darbin-Watson and Fisher statistic (F-
statistic) statistic for determining the logistics
opportunity of Azerbaijan and finding the role among
the Turkic Speaking States.
Literature Review. The author used logistics
program of the states, development and statistics data of
those implementation accepting logistics policy,
attracting investing to this economic field, economy
liberation to logistics sector, Logistics Performances
Index of the Turkic Speaking States, historical and
future perspectives, articles of professors. In this article
author describe the measurement of the development of
the logistics sector using different econometric models.
About the States, the Natural Resources and trade
over between them
Political reasons: Nowadays, the independence of
Turkic states is Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. The
location of those countries on the Great Silk Way and
their large-scale coverage play an important role in the
formation of union of these countries on the Eurasian
continent and in the world economy.
Table 1
Turkic Speaking States [22; 23]
No. Turkic states Area Population
1 Turkey 783 562 83,424 615
2 Azerbaijan 86 600 10,023 320
3 Kazakhstan 2 724 902 18,513 930
4 Uzbekistan 448 969 33,589 650
5 Turkmenistan 488 100 5,941 090
6 Kyrgyzstan 199 949 6,456 900
Total 4 732 082 157,949 505
All of these reasons kick off all those countries to
create political and economic alliance. In the capital of
Azerbaijan, Baku was established the Parliamentary of
Turkic States in 2009. The first members of assembly
were Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
The main purpose of this organization is to tie in
political, scientific and economic areas among Turkic-
speaking peoples and to demonstrate unity in the
international organizations [9].
Economic potential of the Turkic – Speaking
countries
Economic potential of the Turkic – Speaking
countries is promising. The Turkic – Speaking countries
mainly are Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan.
S. Maharramov
46
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
Kazakhstan is the biggest countries among the
Turkic – Speaking countries with big economical
potentials. Economic growth of Kazakhstan noticeable
since 2015 [12]. The economic crisis in the world
affected the Kazakhstan national currency negatively, so
as a result of the crisis the potential of the country
decreased. The economy of Kazakhstan got power from
2016. The result of its country shipped US$57.7 billion
product in 2019. All this economy actions increased rate
of tenge 26% against the US dollars but almost 5%
dropped from 2018 to 2019 [20].
According to information of 2019, the GDP of
Kazakhstan is 180 billion USA dollars. The economy of
the country is highly dependent on oil and gas products
almost 67% (US$38.7 billion) of total exports. The other
33% of export products are ferrous metals, copper,
aluminum, salt, sulphur, stone, cereals, zinc and
uranium are the list of the export product. Italy, Chine,
the Netherlands, Russia and France are the top of export
partners. What about the Turkic states?
Uzbekistan made a huge income in export products
especially oil, gas and gold. Uzbekistan made huge
dollars in export product during 2019 [13]. Furthermore,
Uzbekistan has a great opportunity in inorganic
chemicals which grow up almost 300% in 2019,
precious metals (silver and gold) via a 68.9% gain, and
the last one is copper which increased approximately
28%.
The country is also the second largest cotton
exporter in the world. The top of countries of product
exports we can find Turkic states such as Turkey and
Kazakhstan. The GDP of the country is 57.92 billion
USD.
In comparison to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan,
the Kyrgyzstan does not have any direct access to the
world economy depends on gold and stones which 34%
of export [14]. Export countries for Kyrgyzstan are the
United Kingdom, Kazakhstan, Russia and Uzbekistan.
Furthermore, the country has economic partnership with
China, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan to whom
Kyrgyzstan exports raw materials, consumer goods,
animals, metals and other products.
Turkmenistan is one of the richest countries of
natural gas resources in the world. The natural gas takes
the main part of export economy of country but oil,
cotton, polymers, textiles and vegetables also in export
list product. All of these products make 40.76 USD
billion in GDP. Turkmenistan exported US$9.9 billion
in 2019. It shipped 93% of product to Asia and 7% to
Europe continent. Vegetables, plastics and textiles are
the fastest grower export products in Turkmenistan in
2019 [10].
The main export partners are China, Turkey, Italy,
UAE, Iran and others. Turkey is the main figure among
the Turkic Speaking States. Turkmenistan exported
186 billion USA dollars products or other raw material
(especially oil and oil products), and imported
253 billion USA dollars final goods. Economics
relations are not so strong between Turkmenistan [15].
Azerbaijan is one of the small countries among
Turkic Speaking States but with huge potential.
Strategically location of Azerbaijan is on the
intersection of southwestern Asia with southeastern
Europe north of Iran and south of Russia makes country
multifunctional economy traders. Using location
potential Azerbaijan sold US$19.6 billion of products,
goods and services around the world in 2019 [16]
Despite the Azerbaijani national currency lost -65.9%
values against the dollar in 2015, the government of
country started to implement economy plans for
increasing economy activity. The GDP of the country is
48.05 USD billion. The main export product of state is
oil and natural gas but sugar, fruits, metals and polymers
also in the export list. Azerbaijan has a great potential in
three products, the first one is plastics industry (it has
grown up by 51.3% from 2018 to 2019), the second is
gold (46.4%) and the last on is cotton (value up by
46.3%) [10].
Italy, UK, USA, Israel and Indonesia are on the top
of the export list. Azerbaijan has a good economic and
political relationship with Turkey and Kazakhstan.
Azerbaijan exported to Turkic Speaking States raw
material, natural gas, fuels, intermediate goods, metals,
mach and elec, food products, vegetables, stone and
glasses, plastics or rubber, chemicals and other
products.
Turkey passed a long and great way until 2019. The
National currency of Turkish lira depreciated by -106%
against the US dollar in 2015 [17]. It exported 100
named goods within US$117.1 billion. GDP of Turkey
grew up to $2.347 trillion in 2019. The fastest grown
products for exporting were refined petroleum oils,
plastics and computers [10].
The main exports products are: 31% is machinery
and transport equipment, 25% is manufactured goods,
18% is miscellaneous manufactured articles, food and
live animals are 9 % and gold and non-monetary is 4%
percent. Germany, the UK, the UAE, Iraq and the US
are the main export partners of Turkey. Now we have to
check economical relation among Turkic states from
Turkey position.
The role of Azerbaijan among Turkic Speaking
State in the international logistics corridors aspect
Started from the Soviet period road and transport
system of the Central Asia region has developed. This
was the part of economy politics USSR to integrate
countries one economy project. Six of countries of the
Central Asia China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, started to join
the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation
(CAREC). It is part of “New Silk Road” project which
will connect Europa and Asia through Turkey, bypass of
Russia. Most of those countries have not direct access to
the open sea. The distance of landlocked CAREC
members to the closest seaport is Azerbaijan 800 km,
Kazakhstan 3750 km, Kyrgyzstan 3600 km, Mongolia
995 km, Tajikistan 3100 km and Uzbekistan 2950 km
[11].
S. Maharramov
47
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
Fig. 1. Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation [3]
The main contact between Azerbaijan and Central
Asia is a water transport system, especially with the
Caspian Sea. It has direct maritime connections to other
Caspian littoral states: Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turk-
menistan and Kazakhstan. The maritime connection
regularly works with Azerbaijan International port Alat,
Aktau Kazakhstan and Turkmenbashi Turkmenistan.
Azerbaijan has reconstructed Alat Internatioanl Seaport.
But the Caspian Sea has some problem with deepness
the maximum of loan is 6000 tons [11].
An extraordinary Summit of the Turkic Council
was held through videoconference on the 10 of April
2020. The President of Azerbaijan was chairman of the
Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States. The
aim of the videoconference was economic situation
during the coronavirus pandemic period [18].
The President of Azerbaijan Mr. Ilham Aliyev
highlighted good political and economic relationship
between the Turkic-speaking States. Every economy
scales trade relations of the country on the import-export
operation. On this side, Azerbaijan plays strong role on
economy partner on logistics and transit operations
between Turkey and Central Asia. The main core of this
relation plays mutual cooperation and good relations.
The President noted that almost 180,000 tons of product
and goods were transported from Central Asia to Turkey
and back via Azerbaijan in the first quarter of 2020. It
was huge progress because it was 40.000 tons at the
same time as 2019.
The President of Turkmenistan emphasized that
East-West logistic corridor plays a reliable role among
the Turkic-Speaking States and especially the ferries
between Baku and Turkmenbashi ports are carried most
of the passengers and medical goods [21].
At the end, the President of Azerbaijan once more
said the aim of this online meeting was to develop and
support a relationship between the Turkic-speaking
States during the pandemic time.
One of the main logistics project for Turkic
Speaking States is Zangazur logistics and transport
corridors which will pass the south part of Armenia.
This agreement has been achieved after 44 days of the
second Karabakh war which was finished of victory of
Azerbaijan army and capitulation of Armenia. The
Zangazur logistics and transport corridor will be the
second traffic between Europe and Asia trough
Azerbaijan. This project is the part of CAREC project
[7].
As already mentioned, logistics not only provides
cultural, religious and economic ties between countries
on freight and passenger transportation, but also
stimulates domestic economic activity. From the point
of view of research, the opening of several questions
would have increased the coherence of the research.
These questions are mainly to determine the impact of
the relationship between increased revenue, costs and
transportation in the logistics sector in the country. In
this regard, the database presented in Table 2 will be
used.
As we can see from Table 2, freight transport have
been steadily growing since 2007. This is not a
coincidence, because Azerbaijan has begun special
attention for development of this strategic plan to
achieve the goals since 2006. Based on the given data
and define we can apply and modeling of economic
mathematical models.
S. Maharramov
48
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
Table 2
Statistical indicators on transportation in the transport sector [8]
Years
Revenue from freight transportation in
the transport sector, thousand manats
(YDEEINCOME)
Expenditures on freight and
passenger transportation in the
transport sector, thousand manats
(YDCCOST)
Cargo transportation in the
transport sector, 1000 ton
(NSYTRANSPORTATION)
1995 162 034 152 576 42 020
1996 164 783 183 279 41 331
1997 178 543 228 718 46 348
1998 235 608 255 538 55 029
1999 229 688 286 457 67 735
2000 241 000 284 038 80 180
2001 262 464 293 445 92 648
2002 285 512 307 799 98 445
2003 359 775 364 113 110 001
2004 383 518 455 905 117 314
2005 430 074 525 252 128 328
2006 571 200 679 519 145 596
2007 1 746 184 1 010 084 167 533
2008 2 068 242 1 211 689 183 093
2009 2 409 731 1 169 344 190 372
2010 2 543 135 1 248 354 196 452
2011 2 645 666 1 411 122 203 586
2012 2 638 641 1 561 089 210 862
2013 2 728 269 1 839 606 217 926
2014 2 811 232 1 990 343 221 991
2015 3 089 355 2 136 400 222 373
2016 3 775 392 2 583 043 222 461
2017 4 452 895 3 407 283 226 419
2018 4 871 247 3 902 532 230 144
2019 5 125 582 4 009 754 235 288
First of all, let's determine the impact of the costs
of freight and passenger transport to the transport sector.
For this reasons, interrelated econometric models have
been studied in the following forms.
LOG(YDEEINCOME) = C(1) +
+ C(2)*LOG(YDCCOST) + u , (1)
here YDEEINCOME – income from freight
transportation in the transport sector; YDCCOST – costs
of freight and passenger transportation in the transport
sector; – shows random deviations. C(1) and C(2) are
the parameters of the model (1) finding the parameters
of regression equations and checking the adequacy of
the purchased models was carried out in the Eviews
Application Software Package using econometric
modeling methods.
Revenue from freight traffic in the transport sector
is a semi-arithmetic trend model (2) regression equation
in Table 2 was econometrically assessed based on the
data. The results of the evaluation in the Eviews system
were as follows:
LOG(YDEEINCOME) = -2.78548579158 +
+ 1.21798561158*LOG(YDCCOST); (2)
s.s. (0.648179) (0.047588)
t-test: (-4.297404) (25.59449)
p- probability: (0.0003) (0.0000)
R2 = 0.966081; R2* = 0.964606; DW = 2.546438.
1. The statistical characteristics of the model and
the relevant tests show that the model is adequate (here:
addition 1).
Thus, the standard errors of the parameters are
much smaller than the values found by the method of
smallest squares. Coefficient of determination (R2) and
the modified determination coefficient (R2*) prices are
quite close, Fisher Statistics (F-statistic) The price is
satisfactory, which indicates that the coefficient of
determination is significant. R2 = 0.966081 The
presence of freight and passengers in the transport sector
shows that (YDCCOST) income from freight
transportation in the transport sector (YDEEINCOME)
explains the change by 96%. The remaining 4% of the
change was due to other factors that were not taken into
account. The fact that the Darbin-Watson statistic is 2.5
(2 is ideally desirable) indicates that the remainder of the
model is not a first-order autocorrelation. This shows
that the model is also important for forecasting.
(2) The model shows that a 1% increase in freight and
passenger spending in the transport sector increases
revenue from freight transport by 1.22%.
Now, another point of interest in the study is to
determine the impact of freight in the transport sector on
revenue from freight in the transport sector. For this
purpose, interrelated econometric models have been
studied in the following forms.
S. Maharramov
49
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
LOG (YDEEINCOME) = C(1) +
+ C(2)* LOG (NSYTRANSPORTATION) + u, (3)
here, YDEEINCOME – income from freight
transportation in the transport sector,
NSYTRANSPORTATION – volume of cargo
transportation in the transport sector, - shows random
deviations. C(1) and C(2) are the parameters of the
model (3) finding the parameters of the regression
equations and checking the adequacy of the obtained
models was carried out in the Eviews Application
Software Package using econometric modeling
methods.
Revenue from transportation in the transport sector
is regenerated econometrically based on the data in
Table 2 of the regression equation of the semi-
logarithmic trend model (3). The results of the
evaluation in the Eviews system were as follows:
LOG(YDEEINCOME) = -10.1328750982 +
+ 2.02842140109*LOG(NSYTRANSPORTATION); (4)
s.s. (0.476172) (0.059664)
t-test: (-2.345676) (12.65781)
p- probability (0.0000) (0.0003)
R2 = 0.944265; R2* = 0.89163; DW = 2.426789
2. The statistical characteristics of the model and
the relevant tests show that the model is adequate (here:
additional 1). Thus, the standard errors of the parameters
are much smaller than the values found by the method
of smallest squares. The values of the coefficient of
determination (R2) and the modified coefficient of
determination (R2*) are very close, the value of
the Fisher statistic (F-statistic) is satisfactory,
which indicates that the coefficient of determination
is significant. R2 = 0.944265 The presence of freight
in the transport sector indicates that
(NSYTRANSPORTATION) income from freight
transportation in the transport sector (YDEEINCOME)
explains the change by 94%. The remaining 6% of the
change was due to other factors that were not taken into
account. The fact that the Darbin-Watson statistic is 2.4
(2 is ideally desirable) indicates that the remainder of the
model is not a first-order autocorrelation. This shows
that the model is also important for forecasting.
(2) The model shows that a 1% increase in freight traffic
in the transport sector increases revenue from freight
traffic in the transport sector by 2.02%.
The Logistics Performance of Turkic Speaking
States
The main key for getting to be one economic
system for Turkic – Speaking States is integration into
one logistics system of all those countries. Let’s check
the performance of all those counties on the Logistics
Performance Index. There are six indicators for scaling
of The Logistics Performance Index (LPI) on the below
mentions [9].
1) Efficiency of the clearance process (i.e., speed,
simplicity and predictability of formalities) by border
control agencies, including customs;
2) Quality of trade and transport related
infrastructure (e.g., ports, railroads, roads, information
technology);
3) Ease of arranging competitively priced
shipments;
4) Competence and quality of logistics services
(e.g., transport operators, customs brokers);
5) Ability to track and trace consignments;
6) Timeliness of shipments in reaching destination
within the scheduled or expected delivery time.
According to all above the information we can
clearly see Logistics Performance of the Turkic
Speaking States (Table 3).
In order to increase the transport, logistics and
transit potential of Turkic-Speaking States, it is
neccessary to identify the logistics problems and
improves opportunities, every component of the LPI
(World Bank's) have to be analyze.
Table 3
Overall Logistics Performance Index [9]
Country Code
2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2007
score rank score rank score rank score rank score rank score rank
Turkey TUR 3.15 47 3.42 34 3.50 30 3.51 27 3.22 39 3.15 34
Kazakhstan KAZ 2.81 71 2.75 77 2.7 88 2.69 86 2.83 62 2.12 133
Uzbekistan UZB 2.58 99 2.40 118 2.39 129 2.46 117 2.79 68 2.16 129
Kyrgyz Republic KGZ 2.55 108 2.16 146 2.21 149 2.35 130 2.62 91 2.35 103
Turkmenistan TKM 2.41 126 2.21 140 2.30 140 no date 2.49 114 no date
Azerbaijan AZE no date no date 2.45 125 2.48 116 2.64 89 2.29 111
Among Turkic Speaking State only Turkey has
good Logistics Performance Index. LPI of Turkey is
also not so strong. The best rank 27 for Turkey was in
2012. It dropped to 47 ranks and score was 3.15 after 6
years. Kazakhstan did huge jump from 2007 to 2018.
The score of Kazakhstan was 2.12 and rank was 133 in
2007, but after 10 years it was 2.81 (score) and rank 71.
It means that the State of Kazakhstan is interesting to
S. Maharramov
50
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
develop of logistics policy. For that reason Kazakhstan
interested implementing several different logistics
corridors. The first corridor is the route links the country
to two of the largest economies in the world—the
People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian
Federation. The second is Baku (Azerbaijan)–Aktau–
Beineu–Karakalpakstan–Nukus (Turkmenistan). This
route is the strong gate to the Europe for Kazakhstan.
Changeable political and economic connect of Russia
with the western countries is influence to the business
world. The third corridor is Rubtsovsk (Russian
Federation)–Semey–Aktogai–Almaty–Shu–Lugovoi–
Taraz–Shymkent–Tashkent (Uzbekistan) [1, p. 33-35].
As we can see Kazakhstan plays main logistics role
in the central Asia. The common border with
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyz Republic gives
Kazakhstan advantages to be main figure among the
countries.
The Logistics Performance Index the next 4
countries (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan) are not so strong than others. Despite the 4
countries made huge logistics projects and policies for
increasing logistics performance index of country [3].
Uzbekistan did great job for creating logistics
projects. Uzbeks’ government build’s a transit hub
between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan in 2011. It is the
part of the CAREC Programme. The rail link between
Hairatan Uzbekistan and the northern Afghan city
Mazar-I Sharif is 75 km.
The main step for increasing of logistics
performance of Uzbekistan is to construct of high speed
train way between Kazakhstan city Turkestan and
Uzbekistan’s city Tashkent. This rail connection plans
to create new jobs almost 22,000 people in tourism
sectors. But the COVID-19 pandemic affects to this
project [4].
Turkic Speaking States are already connected to
one logistics belt. One of the main logistics program for
Turkic Speaking States is the Central Asia Regional
Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program. The
Program includes a partnership of 11 countries. CAREC
program is new logistics corridors for Europe and Asia
countries for long term strategic plan. According to
CAREC 2030 it will help to connect people, unification
on logistics policy and projects, tourism, sustainable
development of social and economic platform of
countries.
The CAREC program will provide integration of
countries. Economic and social programs for countries
will support to increase and fasten of business activities,
industrial products, international trade relationships,
tourism and decreasing of poverty.
One of the main direction CAREC transport
corridor is to link between Chines to Europe and Turkic
Speaking States (Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan) will play
bright role [3].
Sustainable development of logistics sector and
corridors positively impact to the environmental, social
and economy communications and make chances for
increasing mobility of people [2].
The logistics potential and logistics belt of the
Ukraine
Let’s clarify the position of the Ukraine in the
Turkic Speaking State belt. We have to attend that the
Ukraine is door to Europe as Turkey. Geography
position, large territory and border with Poland,
Hungary, Slovakia and Romania gave to the companies
to pass less border and custom to reach cargo to inside
of the European Union. Annexation of the Crimea by the
Russia Federation and the separating war (Donetsk and
Luhansk oblast) in the western part of country obligates
to the Ukraine to find out the new logistics route.
The World Bank publishes Logistics Performance
Index (LPI) for each country every two year.
“Customs”; Infrastructure; “International shipments”;
“Logistics competence”; “Tracking & tracing”;
“Timeliness” are indicators to assessment of positions
country. According to the World Bank publish the
Ukraine did some success from 2007 till 2018 (Table 4).
Table 4
Logistics Performance Index [9]
Country Code
2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2007
score rank score rank score rank score rank score rank score rank
Ukraine UKR 2.83 66 2.74 80 2.98 61 2.85 66 2.57 102 2.55 73
The LPI uses standard statistical techniques to
aggregate the data into a single indicator that can be used
for cross-country comparisons.
As we can see the Logistics Performance Index of
the Ukraine is stable. The score is variable from 2.55 in
2007 to 2.83 in 2018, only score was 2.98 and it is
(2014) higher than other years. The rank of state was
also unchagable. The rank was 73 in 2007, after 10 years
the rank of the Ukraine is increased to 66 only 2014 it
was 61. After analyze all components of LPI, we can
clearly see the transport and logistics problems of the
Ukraine.
The Ukraine already jointed to several
international logistic and transport corridors such as
Pan-European, Rail CO-Operation Corridors and the
European Transport Corridors – Caucasus –Asia
(TRACECA) and European – Asia. All those corridors
will increase the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) of
country.
Conclusion and Recommendations. The
locations of Turkic Speaking States give them to be the
main figures in the Eurasia continent. The economic
potential of those countries is huge. More than one
S. Maharramov
51
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
trillions US dollars GDP of countries is not the final
achievement of those. Economy relations and political
alliance of Turkic Speaking States is necessary for all of
them. Export products are less than imports in the Turkic
Speaking States. The main part of export products is raw
materials, natural resources such as oil and natural gas.
Final product and services are not enough for export.
Economy relations between the Turkic-speaking are not
strong. The first reason is all of them exports raw
materials, for that they have to change export point of
view (from raw material to final product). The second
economic relations between them are not strong, for
changing this part economic policy those countries
should be integrate. The third is economic
diversification and economy liberation of those
countries are not enough. The location of Azerbaijan
and members of Turkic Speaking States gives strong
bridge or link between western and eastern Turkic
states. The logistics potential of Azerbaijan should work
for increasing of role and economy aim of Turkic world
and peace in the Eurasia continent. The Logistics
Performance Index of Turkic Speaking States are not so
strong; they cannot use own potential. They don’t have
any common policy for logistics, different logistics
tariffs, not common visa or passport policies. One of the
main members of CAREC project is the Ukraine which
huge logistics and economic potentials. Logistics
Performance Index of the Ukraine is better some of
Turkic Speaking States and it make the Ukraine to be
main player of this logistics project.
1. To implement unique logistics tariffs and
policies for all Turkic Speaking States.
2. Visa and passport rules of all states.
3. Time lost on the costume and border procedures
for TIR of Turkic Speaking Sates.
4. To change export products (from raw material to
final goods).
5. To control “New Great Silk Road” project.
6. To make economic and political stability.
7. To increase Logistics Performance Index.
The Logistics Performance Index of the States are
not good then our expectations. Most of the LPI of them
is not high. Only Turkey has high index then others. The
position of infrastructure is higher than other State
indexes. It explains that Turkey locates close to
European Union Market then others and they take
account it.
References
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report. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2009.
2. Schafer, A. (1998). The global demand for motorized mobility. Transportation Research, A 32(6). 54 p.
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Logistics-Kazakhstan.
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tashkent-high-speed-line-construction-to-begin/.
5. Hairatan-Uzbekistan Rail Project. Retrieved from https://www.railway-technology.com/projects/hairatanuzbekistanra/.
6. What is CAREC? Retrieved from https://www.carecprogram.org/?page_id=31.
7. Address by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. Retrieved from https://en.president.az/articles/49798.
8. The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Retrieved from www.stat.gov.az.
9. Global Rankings 2018. The World Bank. Retrieved from https://lpi.worldbank.org/international/global/2018.
10. Global Rankings 2020. The World Bank. Retrieved from https://lpi.worldbank.org/international/global/2020.
11. Sze, Andy. (2009). Azerbaijan Trade facilitation and logistics Development Strategy. Azerbaijan Trade facilitation and
logistics Development Strategy report “Asia Development Bank”. Mandaluyoung, Philippines: RPT090344. 17 р.
12. Kazakhstan Exports by Country. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/exports-by-country.
13. Uzbekistan Exports by Country. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/uzbekistan/exports-by-country.
14. Kyrgyzstan Exports. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/kyrgyzstan/exports.
15. Turkmenistan Imports by Country. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/turkmenistan/imports-by-country.
16. Azerbaijan Imports By Country. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/azerbaijan/imports-by-country.
17. Turkey Imports By Country. Retrieved from https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/imports-by-country.
18. Extraordinary Summit of Turkic Council held through videoconferencing on the initiative of President Ilham Aliyev.
Retrieved from https://en.president.az/articles/36412.
19. TURKPA. Retrieved from https://www.turk-pa.org/az/content/about_turkpa/tarix.
20. Workman, Daniel. (2020). Kazakhstan’s Top 10 Exports. Retrieved from http://www.worldstopexports.com/kazakhstans-
top-10-exports/.
21. Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping. https://asco.az. Retrieved from https://asco.az/en/donanma/transportation-fleet.
22. UN. http://data.un.org/en/. Retrieved from http://data.un.org/en/.
23. WorldBank. (2020). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org.
Магеррамов С. М. Економетрична оцінка можливостей логістики Азербайджану в умовах відносин з
тюркомовними державами
Сучасний світ змінюється дуже швидко з кожним днем. Головною складовою економіки кожної держави є логістичний
сектор, який зростає дуже динамічно. Тюркомовні держави знаходяться на історичному Великому шовковому шляху.
Загальна територія та населення цих країн складають 4 732 082 км2 та 157 949 505 чол. Після розпаду СРСР п'ять тюркомовних
держав здобули незалежність (Азербайджан, Казахстан, Узбекистан, Туркменістан та Киргизстан), економіка та політика цих
держав були змінені на сучасні ринкові правила. Більшість економік цих країн базується на сировині, газі та нафті. Для
експорту всієї цієї сировини державам потрібні міцні логістичні системи. Стаття ілюструє економічний розвиток логістичних
секторів та торгівлю між тюркомовними державами. Це дослідження допоможе відкрити проблеми та знайти рішення
S. Maharramov
52
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(66), 2021
реалізації логістичної політики для всіх них. Використовуючи потужні та різні фундаментальні бази даних, такі як статистика
цих країн, торговельний баланс, логістичні відносини, дати імпорту та експорту, різні методи співвідношення та економічні
моделі, міжнародні ресурси та потужна наукова література допомагають описати потенціал економічних відносин та реальні
ситуації , перспективи, проблеми та логістичні можливості тюркомовних держав.
Ключові слова: експорт-імпорт, економічний потенціал, логістика, логістичні сектори.
Maharramov S. Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-
Speaking States
Modern world grows very fast every day. The main arrow of every state economy is logistics sector, which is increasing very
dynamically. The Turkic Speaking States are locating on the Historical Great Silk Road. The total of territory and population of those
countries are 4 732 082 km2 and 157 949 505 people. After collapsing the USSR, the five Turkic Speaking States get independence
(Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan), economy and political policy of those states have been changed
to the modern market rules. The most of those countries economy base on the raw materials, gas and petroleum. For exporting of all
those raw materials the States need strong logistics systems. The article illustrates the economic development of logistics sectors and
trade over between Turkic Speaking States. This research will help to open the problems and find out the solution, implementation of
the logistics policy for all of them. Using strong and different fundamental databases, such as statistic of those countries, trade balance,
logistics relations, import and export dates, different correlation methods and economic models, the international resource and powerful
academic literature help to describe the potential of economy relation and real situations, perspectives, problems and logistics power
of the Turkic Speaking States.
Keywords: export – imports, economy potential, logistics, logistics sectors.
Магеррамов С. М. Эконометрическая оценка возможностей логистики Азербайджана в условиях
взаимоотношений с тюркоязычными государствами
Современный мир меняется очень быстро с каждым днем. Основа экономики каждого государства – это логистический
сектор, который очень динамично растет. Тюркоязычные государства располагаются на историческом Великом шелковом
пути. Общая территория и население этих стран составляют 4 732 082 км2 и 157 949 505 чел. После распада СССР пять
тюркоязычных государств получили независимость (Азербайджан, Казахстан, Узбекистан, Туркменистан и Кыргызстан),
экономика и политическая политика этих государств были изменены по современным рыночным правилам. Экономика
большинства этих стран базируется на сырье, газе и нефти. Для экспорта всего этого сырья государствам нужна сильная
система логистики. В статье показано экономическое развитие логистических секторов и торговли между тюркоязычными
государствами. Это исследование поможет раскрыть проблемы и найти решение реализации логистической политики для
всех. Использование сильных и различных фундаментальных баз данных, таких как статистика этих стран, торговый баланс,
логистические отношения, даты импорта и экспорта, различные методы корреляции и экономические модели,
международные ресурсы и мощная академическая литература помогают описать потенциал экономических отношений и
реальные ситуации, перспективы, проблемы и логистическую мощь тюркоязычных государств.
Ключевые слова: экспорт-импорт, потенциал экономики, логистика, секторы логистики.
Received by the editors: 31.08.2021
and final form 16.12.2021
|
| id | nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-184875 |
| institution | Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| issn | 1817-3772 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-27T11:45:26Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | Maharramov, S. 2022-07-26T12:09:09Z 2022-07-26T12:09:09Z 2021 Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States / S. Maharramov // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2021. — № 4 (66). — С. 45-52. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 DOI: 10.12958/1817-3772-2021-4(66)-45-52 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/184875 330.43:658.7(479.24) Modern world grows very fast every day. The main arrow of every state economy is logistics sector, which is increasing very dynamically. The Turkic Speaking States are locating on the Historical Great Silk Road. The total of territory and population of those countries are 4 732 082 km2 and 157 949 505 people. After collapsing the USSR, the five Turkic Speaking States get independence (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan), economy and political policy of those states have been changed to the modern market rules. The most of those countries economy base on the raw materials, gas and petroleum. For exporting of all those raw materials the States need strong logistics systems. The article illustrates the economic development of logistics sectors and trade over between Turkic Speaking States. This research will help to open the problems and find out the solution, implementation of the logistics policy for all of them. Using strong and different fundamental databases, such as statistic of those countries, trade balance, logistics relations, import and export dates, different correlation methods and economic models, the international resource and powerful academic literature help to describe the potential of economy relation and real situations, perspectives, problems and logistics power of the Turkic Speaking States. Сучасний світ змінюється дуже швидко з кожним днем. Головною складовою економіки кожної держави є логістичний сектор, який зростає дуже динамічно. Тюркомовні держави знаходяться на історичному Великому шовковому шляху. Загальна територія та населення цих країн складають 4 732 082 км2 та 157 949 505 чол. Після розпаду СРСР п'ять тюркомовних держав здобули незалежність (Азербайджан, Казахстан, Узбекистан, Туркменістан та Киргизстан), економіка та політика цих держав були змінені на сучасні ринкові правила. Більшість економік цих країн базується на сировині, газі та нафті. Для експорту всієї цієї сировини державам потрібні міцні логістичні системи. Стаття ілюструє економічний розвиток логістичних секторів та торгівлю між тюркомовними державами. Це дослідження допоможе відкрити проблеми та знайти рішення реалізації логістичної політики для всіх них. Використовуючи потужні та різні фундаментальні бази даних, такі як статистика цих країн, торговельний баланс, логістичні відносини, дати імпорту та експорту, різні методи співвідношення та економічні моделі, міжнародні ресурси та потужна наукова література допомагають описати потенціал економічних відносин та реальні ситуації , перспективи, проблеми та логістичні можливості тюркомовних держав. Современный мир меняется очень быстро с каждым днем. Основа экономики каждого государства – это логистический сектор, который очень динамично растет. Тюркоязычные государства располагаются на историческом Великом шелковом пути. Общая территория и население этих стран составляют 4 732 082 км2 и 157 949 505 чел. После распада СССР пять тюркоязычных государств получили независимость (Азербайджан, Казахстан, Узбекистан, Туркменистан и Кыргызстан), экономика и политическая политика этих государств были изменены по современным рыночным правилам. Экономика большинства этих стран базируется на сырье, газе и нефти. Для экспорта всего этого сырья государствам нужна сильная система логистики. В статье показано экономическое развитие логистических секторов и торговли между тюркоязычными государствами. Это исследование поможет раскрыть проблемы и найти решение реализации логистической политики для всех. Использование сильных и различных фундаментальных баз данных, таких как статистика этих стран, торговый баланс, логистические отношения, даты импорта и экспорта, различные методы корреляции и экономические модели, международные ресурсы и мощная академическая литература помогают описать потенциал экономических отношений и реальные ситуации, перспективы, проблемы и логистическую мощь тюркоязычных государств. en Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України Економічний вісник Донбасу Marketing and Logistics Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States Економетрична оцінка можливостей логістики Азербайджану в умовах відносин з тюркомовними державами Эконометрическая оценка возможностей логистики Азербайджана в условиях взаимоотношений с тюркоязычными государствами Article published earlier |
| spellingShingle | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States Maharramov, S. Marketing and Logistics |
| title | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States |
| title_alt | Економетрична оцінка можливостей логістики Азербайджану в умовах відносин з тюркомовними державами Эконометрическая оценка возможностей логистики Азербайджана в условиях взаимоотношений с тюркоязычными государствами |
| title_full | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States |
| title_fullStr | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States |
| title_short | Econometric Assessment of Azerbaijan's Logistics Capabilities in Terms of Relations with Turkic-Speaking States |
| title_sort | econometric assessment of azerbaijan's logistics capabilities in terms of relations with turkic-speaking states |
| topic | Marketing and Logistics |
| topic_facet | Marketing and Logistics |
| url | https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/184875 |
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