The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy
The article identifies and analyses the key factors that determine the participation of Ukrainian industry in global value chains (GVCs), with a special focus on their impact on the competitiveness of the national economy in the context of globalisation. Using regression analysis, the article confir...
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Mytsenko, V. 2025-05-23T09:28:38Z 2024 The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy / V. Mytsenko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2024. — № 4 (78). — С. 39-48. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/203367 339.9:338.2 https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2024-4(78)-39-48 The article identifies and analyses the key factors that determine the participation of Ukrainian industry in global value chains (GVCs), with a special focus on their impact on the competitiveness of the national economy in the context of globalisation. Using regression analysis, the article confirms that Ukraine's direct participation in GVCs largely depends on the volume of foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry, as well as the impact of the number of people employed in the industrial sector and the volume of innovative products on the overall integration into GVCs. The hypothesis about the impact of industrial employment on the content of foreign added value in exports was partially confirmed. The results of the analysis emphasise the importance of developing certain sectors, such as textiles and metallurgy, which has a positive impact on employment and innovation activity. At the same time, the need to reduce dependence on imports in high-tech products was identified. Based on the conclusions obtained, the article outlines proposals for state policy, which envisage strengthening support for investment in the processing industry, stimulating innovation processes and developing the production of final products, which will help restore and ensure the competitiveness of Ukraine's economy in the international arena. У статті здійснено ідентифікацію та аналіз ключових чинників, що визначають участь української промисловості в глобальних ланцюгах створення вартості (GVCs), з особливою увагою до їхнього впливу на конкурентоспроможність національної економіки в умовах глобалізаційних процесів. За допомогою регресійного аналізу підтверджено, що пряма участь України у GVCs значною мірою залежить від обсягів прямих іноземних інвестицій у переробну промисловість, а також впливу працевлаштованих у промисловому секторі та обсягу інноваційної продукції на загальну інтеграцію у GVCs. Частково підтверджено гіпотезу щодо впливу зайнятості в промисловості на вміст іноземної доданої вартості в експорті. Результати аналізу підкреслюють важливість розвитку певних секторів, таких як текстильна промисловість та металургія, що позитивно відображається на рівні зайнятості та інноваційній активності. Водночас виявлено необхідність скорочення залежності від імпортної складової у виробах високих технологій. На основі отриманих висновків окреслено пропозиції для державної політики, що передбачають посилення підтримки інвестицій в переробну промисловість, стимулювання інноваційних процесів та розвитку виробництва кінцевої продукції, що сприятиме відновленню та забезпеченню конкурентоспроможності економіки України на міжнародній арені. en Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України Економічний вісник Донбасу International and regional economics The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy Вплив участі України в глобальних ланцюгах створення вартості на конкурентоспроможність національної економіки Article published earlier |
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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
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| title |
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy |
| spellingShingle |
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy Mytsenko, V. International and regional economics |
| title_short |
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy |
| title_full |
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy |
| title_fullStr |
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy |
| title_sort |
impact of ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy |
| author |
Mytsenko, V. |
| author_facet |
Mytsenko, V. |
| topic |
International and regional economics |
| topic_facet |
International and regional economics |
| publishDate |
2024 |
| language |
English |
| container_title |
Економічний вісник Донбасу |
| publisher |
Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
| format |
Article |
| title_alt |
Вплив участі України в глобальних ланцюгах створення вартості на конкурентоспроможність національної економіки |
| description |
The article identifies and analyses the key factors that determine the participation of Ukrainian industry in global value chains (GVCs), with a special focus on their impact on the competitiveness of the national economy in the context of globalisation. Using regression analysis, the article confirms that Ukraine's direct participation in GVCs largely depends on the volume of foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry, as well as the impact of the number of people employed in the industrial sector and the volume of innovative products on the overall integration into GVCs. The hypothesis about the impact of industrial employment on the content of foreign added value in exports was partially confirmed. The results of the analysis emphasise the importance of developing certain sectors, such as textiles and metallurgy, which has a positive impact on employment and innovation activity. At the same time, the need to reduce dependence on imports in high-tech products was identified. Based on the conclusions obtained, the article outlines proposals for state policy, which envisage strengthening support for investment in the processing industry, stimulating innovation processes and developing the production of final products, which will help restore and ensure the competitiveness of Ukraine's economy in the international arena.
У статті здійснено ідентифікацію та аналіз ключових чинників, що визначають участь української промисловості в глобальних ланцюгах створення вартості (GVCs), з особливою увагою до їхнього впливу на конкурентоспроможність національної економіки в умовах глобалізаційних процесів. За допомогою регресійного аналізу підтверджено, що пряма участь України у GVCs значною мірою залежить від обсягів прямих іноземних інвестицій у переробну промисловість, а також впливу працевлаштованих у промисловому секторі та обсягу інноваційної продукції на загальну інтеграцію у GVCs. Частково підтверджено гіпотезу щодо впливу зайнятості в промисловості на вміст іноземної доданої вартості в експорті. Результати аналізу підкреслюють важливість розвитку певних секторів, таких як текстильна промисловість та металургія, що позитивно відображається на рівні зайнятості та інноваційній активності. Водночас виявлено необхідність скорочення залежності від імпортної складової у виробах високих технологій. На основі отриманих висновків окреслено пропозиції для державної політики, що передбачають посилення підтримки інвестицій в переробну промисловість, стимулювання інноваційних процесів та розвитку виробництва кінцевої продукції, що сприятиме відновленню та забезпеченню конкурентоспроможності економіки України на міжнародній арені.
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1817-3772 |
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https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/203367 |
| citation_txt |
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global value chains on the competitiveness of the national economy / V. Mytsenko // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2024. — № 4 (78). — С. 39-48. — Бібліогр.: 12 назв. — англ. |
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2025-11-26T20:41:28Z |
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V. Mytsenko
39
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(78), 2024 ISSN 1817-3772
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2024-4(78)-39-48
UDC 339.9:338.2
V. Mytsenko,
PhD (Pedagogy),
Associate Professor,
ORCID 0000-0001-6034-0224,
e-mail: valeriy369@hotmail.com,
Central Ukrainian National Technical University, Kropyvnytskyi
THE IMPACT OF UKRAINE'S PARTICIPATION IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
ON THE COMPETITIVENESS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
Problem statement. Global value chains (GVCs)
have fundamentally changed the world production
system and globalisation processes, increasing interna-
tional integration and specialisation of economies. They
account for almost 50% of global trade. Experts estimate
that a 1% increase in a country's participation in GVCs
increases per capita income by more than 1%, which is
about twice as much as in the case of traditional trade.
Unlike the classical model, where goods are produced in
one country and sold in another, GVCs involve multiple
crossings of national borders at different stages of
production. In today's world, the traditional ‘Made in’
labelling is gradually losing its relevance, as most goods
are now produced in global cooperation – Made in the
World [1, p. 1].
A global value chain is a series of stages in the
production of a product or service where each stage adds
value and at least two of them are performed in different
countries. For example, if a bicycle is assembled in
Finland using parts from Italy, Japan and Malaysia and
then exported to Egypt, this is an example of a GVC.
According to this approach, a country, sector or
company is considered to be a member of a GVC if it is
integrated into at least one of its stages [2, p. 17, 71].
The place of a country in GVCs directly depends on the
country's specialisation, its industrial, research and
innovation potential, and whether it is able to use foreign
technologies and create its own breakthrough
innovations.
Analysis of recent research and publications.
Global value chains have become an object of empirical
research relatively recently. The growing interest in this
topic is driven by both the increasing role of GVCs in
the context of progressive globalisation and fragmenta-
tion of production processes, and the emergence of
specialised databases that allow for relevant
calculations.
In the academic literature, GVCs are studied in
terms of their potential impact on various aspects of the
economy, including economic growth, productivity,
foreign direct investment (FDI), wages, the
environment, etc. Some studies are aimed at identifying
the factors that influence countries' participation in
GVCs [5; 6], while others focus on statistical analysis
that allows identifying differences among countries in
terms of their level of integration and positioning in
these chains [7; 8].
Interesting results have been demonstrated by the
study aimed at identifying key factors that determine the
difference between the European Union (EU) member
states in terms of their level of participation in global
value chains. This level is measured as a combination of
indicators of backward and forward linkages. The EU
member states were analysed both as a whole and by
dividing them into ‘old’ member states and newer
member states that joined later. Based on the data for
1995-2011, the author identified the key determinants of
these countries' involvement in global value chains,
including economic growth with a certain time lag,
foreign direct investment, the level of financial sector
development, the share of services in GDP, the share of
high-tech products in exports, and the level of wages.
The impact of these factors varies depending on the
group of countries under analysis [9].
In the study based on a sample of 43 countries over
the period 2000-2014 [6], the authors analysed the
impact of various factors on five indicators of
participation in GVCs, including the level of forward
and backward integration. Based on the results of the
analysis, they conclude that the size of the economy and
openness to FDI are the key determinants of
involvement in GVCs. They also emphasise that
integration into GVCs depends on industry specifics and
the level of technological development of the sector. At
the same time, human capital and institutional quality
factors in this study did not demonstrate a statistically
significant impact on any of the indicators of
participation in global chains.
One of the largest studies on the factors that
determine the level of integration of countries into
GVCs is the World Bank report [2]. The analysis, which
covered almost 200 countries, led to a number of key
conclusions. In particular, it was confirmed that a
country's integration into GVCs depends on the level of
supply of production factors, market size, geographic
location, and the quality of institutions. The study also
showed that low-skilled labour and FDI are important
for enhancing backward linkages, while the availability
of natural resources contributes to the growth of forward
integration into value chains [2].
© Publisher Institute of Industrial Economy of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2024
© Publisher State Higher Education Institution "Luhansk Taras Shevchenko National University", 2024
V. Mytsenko
40
ISSN 1817-3772 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(78), 2024
Among the works of Ukrainian scientists, it is
worth noting the study [10], which is devoted to
empirical analysis using panel data for EU member
states to assess the impact of key macroeconomic
indicators on their added value and competitiveness for
the period 2006-2018. The researchers found that the
key factors of value added growth for EU member states
are strengthening the national currency, reducing the
budget deficit, importing high-tech products,
developing human capital, reducing corruption and
increasing GDP. Based on their findings, they outlined
priority areas of government regulation aimed at
increasing added value, including budget balance,
investment in human capital, maintaining currency
stability and fighting corruption.
Taking into account the results of the studies
reviewed, it can be concluded that a country's integra-
tion into global value chains is largely determined by the
combination of production factors, the level of
innovation potential and the quality of the institutional
environment. For Ukraine, which is in need of structural
transformation of its economy and seeks to strengthen
its position in the international division of labour, it is
particularly important to assess the factors that influence
involvement of its industry in global value chains.
Understanding these determinants will help to identify
strategic directions for the development of national
production aimed at increasing the technological com-
ponent of exports and strengthening competitiveness.
The objective of the article is to identify and
analyse the factors that have the greatest impact on the
participation of Ukrainian industry in global value
chains, as well as assessing their impact on improving
the competitiveness of the national economy in the
context of globalisation.
Presentation of the main research material.
Global value chains, which connect companies from
different countries through mutual flows of goods,
services and information, are important for the
economies of the countries involved. As global trade
grows, these chains affect both the global economy in
general and the economic development of individual
countries in particular. The level of a country's
integration into GVCs depends on its resource potential,
the efficiency of natural and human resources, and
changes in the macroeconomic environment. Close
economic ties among countries open up new
opportunities for development, but also pose challenges
due to growing competition. In this context, in order to
be competitive within global chains, it is important to
focus on production factors that are difficult to transfer
abroad, which ensures stability and long-term benefits
for the country.
The analysis of scientific studies has shown that
important factors for participation in GVCs are the
qualifications of the labour force, access to investment
(both domestic and foreign), the level of technological
development of enterprises and their ability to introduce
latest technologies for the manufacture of innovative
products. Based on the results of studies analysing the
impact of these factors on the participation of different
countries in GVCs, it can be concluded that the
efficiency of using these resources varies depending on
the level of economic development of the country. In
this context, it is advisable to put forward several
hypotheses regarding the factors that influence the
integration of the Ukrainian industry into GVCs.
Hypothesis 1: the degree of Ukraine's integration
into global value chains is determined by the number of
employees employed in industry, the level of innovation
of industrial enterprises, and the volume of investments
in the development of these enterprises.
Hypothesis 2: The share of foreign gross value
added in Ukraine's exports depends on the level of
employment in industry, the technical level of industrial
enterprises, their ability to innovate, and the amount of
investment attracted.
Hypothesis 3: The volume of national gross value
added in Ukraine's exports depends on the level of
employment in the industrial complex, the innovation
activity of industrial enterprises, technological
upgrading of their production, and the sufficiency of
investment resources for the development of these
enterprises.
To test the above-mentioned hypotheses,
correlation and regression analysis will be applied,
including the construction of linear regression models
using ‘Statistica 7.0’ software. To confirm or refute the
first hypothesis, a regression analysis will be conducted,
where the coefficients of reverse participation, direct
participation and the overall indicator of Ukraine's
participation in global value chains will be used as the
dependent variable (Table 1).
The independent variables are:
1) indicators characterising the employment of the
able-bodied population in industry (Х1 is the number of
people employed in industry, thousand people; Х2 is the
share of industrial employees in the total number of
employees, %);
2) indicators that characterise innovation activity
and the ability to technologically upgrade production
facilities (Х3 is the share of sold innovative products
(goods, services) in the total volume of sold products
(goods, services) of industrial enterprises, %; Х4 is the
number of types of innovative products (goods,
services) introduced in the reporting year, units; Х5 is
the share of the number of industrial enterprises that
introduced innovations (products and/or technological
processes) in the total number of industrial enterprises,
%; Х6 – research and development costs, million USD;
X7 is the share of expenditures on research and
development in GDP, %);
3) indicators characterising the volume of
investment in the processing industry (Х8 – FDI in the
processing industry, million USD; Х9 is capital
investment in the industry, million USD). USD; Х9 –
capital investments in the industry, USD million. USD)
(Table 2).
V. Mytsenko
41
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(78), 2024 ISSN 1817-3772
Table 1
Indicators of Ukraine's participation in global value chains
Year
Reverse participation
coefficient, %
Direct participation
coefficient, %
Overall participation
indicator in GVCs, %
Position of the country
in GVCs
gvcb_share gvcf_share gvc_share gvc_position
2010 29,71 21,00 50,71 -0,33
2011 31,74 22,00 53,74 -0,35
2012 32,88 19,00 51,88 -0,53
2013 29,40 20,00 49,40 -0,37
2014 29,44 21,00 50,44 -0,32
2015 30,00 20,00 50,00 -0,39
2016 29,06 20,00 49,06 -0,36
2017 28,88 22,00 50,88 -0,26
2018 27,88 23,00 50,88 -0,19
2019 25,87 23,00 48,87 -0,11
2020 23,70 22,00 45,70 -0,07
Source: calculated by the author according to [11].
Table 2
Statistical data characterising human, innovation and investment determinants
of Ukraine's participation in GVCs
Year
Value of the independent variable
Х1 Х2 Х3 Х4 Х5 Х6 Х7 Х8 Х9
2010 3461,5 18,0 3,8 2408 11,5 1022,3 0,75 90,2 6984,2
2011 3352,7 17,4 3,8 3238 12,8 1069,5 0,65 125,5 9890,2
2012 3236,7 16,8 3,3 3403 13,6 1179,0 0,67 134,3 11464,1
2013 3170,0 16,4 3,3 3138 13,6 1282,7 0,70 147,4 12212,0
2014 2898,2 16,0 2,5 3661 12,1 798,6 0,60 171,2 7259,4
2015 2573,9 15,7 1,4 3136 15,2 503,8 0,55 131,5 4013,6
2016 2494,8 15,3 1,1 4139 16,6 451,3 0,48 108,7 4608,8
2017 2440,6 15,1 0,7 2387 14,3 503,2 0,45 117,1 5389,2
2018 2426,0 14,8 0,8 3843 15,6 616,7 0,47 122,5 7349,1
2019 2461,5 14,8 1,3 2148 13,8 667,7 0,43 106,6 9837,3
2020 2358,6 14,8 1,9 4066 14,9 631,4 0,41 77,8 6696,5
Source: calculated by the author.
The regression analysis revealed a weak
correlation (R=0.615) between the coefficient of
Ukraine's reverse participation in GVCs (gvcb_share)
and the volume of FDI that annually entered the
manufacturing industry (Table 3). The relationship
between the dependent and independent variables is
direct: a 1% increase in FDI in the manufacturing
industry leads to a 0.251% increase in the coefficient of
reverse participation in GVCs, ceteris paribus. The
coefficient of determination (R2=0.378) shows that the
change in Ukraine's GVCs return ratio was only 37.8%
dependent on FDI inflows into manufacturing, and
62.2% dependent on other factors. The relationship
between the variables is not very tight, but the regression
results are acceptable, since the calculated value of the
Fisher's criterion exceeds its tabulated value, and the
statistical error level does not exceed 5%.
The relationship between the indicator of Ukraine's
direct participation in GVCs and the share of R&D
expenditures in GDP is even weaker than the
relationship discussed above, as evidenced by the low
value of the correlation coefficient (R=0.567). The
relationship between these indicators is inverse: a 1%
increase in the independent variable causes a 0.166%
decrease in the dependent variable, ceteris paribus. The
coefficient of determination shows that the change in the
value of direct participation in GVCs is only 32.1%
dependent on the share of R&D expenditures in GDP.
The relationship between the variables is not tight, as
evidenced by the low estimated value of the Fisher's
criterion. At the same time, the level of statistical error
does not exceed 10%, which is acceptable.
A more significant relationship (R=0.762) was
found between the overall indicator of Ukraine's
participation in GVCs and such factors as the share of
employees of industrial enterprises in the total number
of employed and the share of sold innovative products
in the total volume of sold products of industrial
enterprises. The relationship between the dependent
variable and the share of employees of industrial
enterprises in the total number of employees was direct:
a 1% increase in the independent variable resulted in a
0.798% increase in the overall participation rate in
GVCs, ceteris paribus. The relationship between the
dependent variable and the share of innovative products
in the total volume of industrial sales was inverse: a 1%
increase in the independent variable resulted in a
0.058% decrease in the dependent variable, ceteris
paribus. The coefficient of determination indicates that
the overall indicator of Ukraine's participation in GVCs
V. Mytsenko
42
ISSN 1817-3772 Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(78), 2024
depends by 58.1% on changes in the share of employees
of industrial enterprises in the total number of employed
and the share of innovative products in the total volume
of industrial enterprises' sales, and by 41.9% on other
factors. The level of statistical error does not exceed
10%, which indicates the acceptability of the results.
Table 3
Influence of the main factors of industrial production on Ukraine's participation in GVCs in 2010-2021
Factorial signs
Dependent variable
gvcb_share gvcf_share gvc_share
Number of observations 11 11 11
Constant value 2,159***
(0,514)
2,951***
(0,051)
1,741**
(0,686)
Х8 0,251**
(0,107)
– –
Х7 – -0,166*
(0,080)
–
Х2 – – 0,798**
(0,253)
Х3 – – -0,058*
(0,027)
R 0,615 0,567 0,762
R2 0,378 0,321 0,581
F-criterion F(1,9)=5,478 F(1,9)=4,272 F(2,8)=5,556
* – statistical error rate 10%;
** – statistical error rate 5%;
*** – statistical error rate 1%.
Source: calculated by the author.
According to the regression analysis, there is no
correlation between the coefficient of Ukraine's indirect
participation in GVCs and indicators characterising the
employment of the working-age population in industry
and the innovative activity of industrial enterprises, as
well as the volume of capital investment in industry.
There is no correlation between the coefficient of
Ukraine's direct participation in GVCs and indicators
characterising employment of the working-age
population in industry and investment in industry, as
well as indicators of the share of innovative products in
the total volume of industrial sales, the number of
introduced types of innovative products, the share of
innovative enterprises in the total number of industrial
enterprises, and the cost of research and development.
The overall indicator of Ukraine's participation in GVCs
was not affected by the dynamics of such indicators as
the number of people employed in industry, the number
of types of innovative products introduced in the
reporting year, the share of innovative enterprises in the
total number of industrial enterprises, R&D
expenditures, the share of R&D expenditures, FDI in
manufacturing, and capital investments in industry.
Thus, the main factor of Ukraine's reverse
participation in GVCs in the period under study was
foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry,
while direct participation in GVCs was determined with
a relatively high error by changes in the share of R&D
expenditures in GDP. The main determinants of
Ukraine's overall participation in GVCs were the share
of employees of industrial enterprises in the total
number of employed persons and the share of innovative
products in the total volume of industrial products sold.
The main indicator used to assess Ukraine's
participation in global value chains is the foreign gross
value added in exports, which shows the extent to which
imported intermediate goods are used by domestic
industry to produce exports. To further test our
hypotheses, we will conduct a regression analysis,
where we will alternately use the indicators of foreign
gross value added in exports and national gross value
added (GVA) in exports as the dependent variable
(Table 4). As independent variables, we use indicators
characterising employment in industry, innovation and
R&D activities of industrial enterprises, and the volume
of domestic and foreign investments attracted by
industrial enterprises, which are presented in Table 2.
Table 4
Dynamics of foreign and domestic gross value
added in Ukraine's exports
Year
Foreign gross value added
in Ukrainian exports,
million USD
National gross value
added in exports,
million USD
For_comp Nat_comp
2010 14387 34039
2011 19109 41096
2012 20985 42836
2013 17967 43150
2014 15355 36810
2015 12246 28578
2016 11406 27848
2017 13189 32472
2018 14010 36240
2019 14142 40519
2020 12333 39708
Source: compiled by the author according to [11].
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The results of the regression analysis revealed a
strong link between the content of foreign GVA in
Ukraine's exports and indicators characterising the
employment of the working-age population in industry,
as evidenced by the high value of the correlation
coefficient (Table 5). The relationship between the
volume of foreign GVA in exports and the number of
people employed in industry was direct: a 1% increase
in the independent variable led to a 3.727% increase in
the dependent variable, ceteris paribus. At the same
time, the relationship between the volume of foreign
GVA in exports and the share of industrial employees in
total employment was inverse: a 1% increase in the
independent variable resulted in a 6.032% decrease in
the dependent variable, ceteris paribus. The coefficient
of determination shows that during the period under
study, the volume of foreign GVA in Ukraine's exports
depended on changes in industrial employment by
84.5% and other factors by 15.5%. The calculated value
of the Fisher's criterion exceeds its tabulated value
(F(2,8)=21.897), which indicates the tightness of the
relationship between the dependent and independent
variables. The statistical error in calculating the constant
value was 13%, but the error in calculating the
coefficients for the independent variables was less than
1%. Taking into consideration the high values of the
correlation and determination coefficients, Fisher's
criterion, and the low error rate for the coefficients on
independent variables, the results of the calculations can
be considered acceptable.
The regression analysis revealed no correlation
between the volume of foreign GVA in Ukraine's
exports and indicators characterising the innovation
activity of industrial enterprises and the volume of
foreign and capital investments in industry. Thus, the
number of people employed in industry and the share of
industrial employees in the total number of employees
were the main determinants that influenced the foreign
GVA content of exports, which is the basis for
determining the level of Ukraine's reciprocal
participation in GVCs. The impact of other indicators
characterising the innovation and investment activities
of the industry was not statistically significant.
Table 5 shows a strong significant relationship
(R=0.919) between the share of national GVA in
Ukraine's exports and foreign direct investment in
manufacturing (X8), the share of R&D expenditure in
GDP (X7), and R&D expenditure (X6). The relationship
between the dependent variable and the volume of FDI
in manufacturing was direct: a 1% increase in the
independent variable contributed to a 0.093% increase
in the share of national GVA in exports.
An inverse relationship was found between the
dependent variable and the share of R&D expenditures
in GDP: a 1% increase in the independent variable
resulted in a 0.804% decrease in the dependent variable,
ceteris paribus. This relationship between these
variables is due to the fact that the vast majority of R&D
Table 5
Dependence of foreign and national GVA
in Ukraine's exports on changes in industrial
production factors in 2010-2021
Factorial signs Dependent variable
For_comp Nat_comp
Number of
observations
11 11
Constant value -3,271
(1,969)
5,084***
(0,208)
Х1 3,727***
(0,766)
-
Х2 -6,032***
(1,652)
-
Х8 - 0,093***
(0,023)
Х7 - -0,804***
(0,038)
Х6 - 0,677***
(0,021)
R 0,919 0,996
R2 0,845 0,993
F-criterion F(2,8)=21,897 F(3,7)=359,35
* – statistical error rate 10%;
** – statistical error rate 5%;
*** – statistical error rate 1%.
Source: calculated by the author
expenditures are directed to the research sector, where
basic research and experimental work is carried out, and
almost no funds are directed to the industry sector to
introduce new technologies. Consequently, in the
absence of links between innovation developers and
industrial enterprises, the transfer of technologies
needed by industry does not take place. Consequently,
the domestic R&D sector is not currently a stimulating
factor for increasing Ukraine's national GVA in exports.
A direct relationship characterises the dependence
of the content of national GVA in exports on changes in
R&D expenditures of enterprises: a 1% increase in the
independent variable contributed to a 0.677% increase
in the dependent variable, ceteris paribus. Thus, an
increase in R&D expenditures in the industry sector of
the economy has a positive impact on the international
competitiveness of domestic products.
The high value of the coefficient of determination
shows that the share of national GVA in Ukraine's
exports depended by 99.3% on changes in the volume of
FDI attracted to the manufacturing industry, the share of
R&D expenditures in GDP, and R&D expenditures by
enterprises, and only by 0.7% on other factors. The
tightness of the relationship between the dependent and
independent variables is confirmed by the high
calculated value of Fisher's criterion (F(3,7)=359.35).
The statistical error of the regression does not exceed
1%, which indicates the statistical significance of the
results.
There is no correlation between the share of
national GVA in Ukraine's exports and the employment
of the working-age population in industry, the volume
of capital investment in industry, as well as the share of
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innovative products in the total volume of industrial
sales, the number of innovative products introduced, and
the share of industrial enterprises that introduced
innovations in the total number of industrial enterprises.
Thus, according to the results of our study, the
main determinants of the volume of foreign GVA in
Ukraine's exports in the period under study were the
indicators of employment of the working-age
population in industry. The content of national GVA in
Ukraine's exports during this period was determined by
changes in foreign direct investment in the
manufacturing industry, the share of R&D expenditures
in GDP, and R&D expenditures.
The impact of Ukraine's participation in global
value chains on key industry indicators. In the context
of globalisation [12], it is not so much the sales of
industrial products that have a much greater impact on
economic development and employment, but the extent
of participation of national enterprises in production
processes. Global value chains allow national
economies to specialise in those stages of production
where they have a competitive advantage, using
intermediate products and services sourced from other
countries, which eliminates the need to manage all
stages of production. Although a significant portion of
value added is related to services, industrial production
remains the main element of GVCs.
In view of this, it can be assumed that to ensure the
country's competitive position in GVCs, not only factors
related to industrial employment, innovation activities
of industrial enterprises and attraction of investments in
the manufacturing industry are important, but also the
impact of the degree of involvement of the national
economy in GVCs on the development of the
manufacturing industry.
To achieve this goal, we will test the impact of the
level of a country's involvement in GVCs on the main
indicators of the manufacturing industry development.
At the first stage, we will use the linear regression
method, where the independent variables are the
coefficients of Ukraine's reverse, direct and total
participation in global value chains (Table 1), as well as
the indicators of foreign and domestic gross value added
in Ukraine's exports (Table 4).
As dependent variables, we used the indicators that
best reflect the development of Ukraine's manufacturing
industry. These include: the number of introduced types
of innovative products, the volume of sold products of
the processing industry, the share of industrial
enterprises that implemented innovations in the total
number of industrial enterprises, and the level of
employment in the industry (Table 6). At the same time,
the regression analysis revealed no significant
correlation between industrial development indicators
and the coefficients of Ukraine's indirect, direct and total
participation in GVCs, as well as changes in the content
of national gross value added in Ukraine's exports.
Table 6
Indicators of industrial development in Ukraine
Years
Number of innovative
products introduced, total
units
Volumes of products sold
in the processing
industry, million USD
Share of industrial enterprises that
introduced innovations in the total
number of industrial enterprises, %
Number of people
employed in industry,
thousand people
Innov_prod Prod_ind Innov_ent Empl_ind
2010 2408 88693,57 11,5 3461,5
2011 3238 107102,7 12,8 3352,7
2012 3403 109029,6 13,6 3236,7
2013 3138 102344,7 13,6 3170,0
2014 3661 76071,99 12,1 2898,2
2015 3136 52161,78 15,2 2573,9
2016 4139 51378,83 16,6 2494,8
2017 2387 61207,38 14,3 2440,6
2018 3843 69316,4 15,6 2426,0
2019 2148 70755,7 13,8 2461,5
2020 4066 69709,77 14,9 2358,6
Source: compiled by the author.
At the same time, the results show that there is a
direct dependence of the number of people employed in
industry and the sales of manufacturing enterprises on
changes in the content of foreign GVA in Ukraine's
exports (Table 7). The relationship between the number
of people employed in industry and the import
component of exports is relatively weak, as the
correlation coefficient was 0.766, and the statistical
error in calculating the constant exceeded 10%.
Nevertheless, with a probability of 58.8%, it can be
stated that a 1% increase in the content of foreign value
added in exports would result in a 0.582% increase in
the number of people employed in industry, ceteris
paribus. The statistical error of this dependence did not
exceed 1%, and the calculated value of Fisher's criterion
exceeded its tabular value, which indicates the
acceptability of the results.
The relationship between the volume of
manufacturing exports and the import component of
Ukraine's exports is strong (R=0.93), and the impact of
the independent variable on the dependent variable is
significant: a 1% increase in the independent variable
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Table 7
Dependence of Ukraine's industrial development
indicators on indicators of involvement in GVCs
Factorial signs Dependent variable
Empl_ind Prod_ind
Number of
observations
11 11
Constant value 2,341
(1,558)
-1,051
(1,611)
For_comp 0,582***
(0,162)
1,279***
(0,167)
R 0,766 0,930
R2 0,588 0,865
F- criterion F(1,9)=12,856 F(1,9)=58,145
* – statistical error rate 10%;
** – statistical error rate 5%;
*** – statistical error rate 1%.
Source: calculated by the author.
leads to a 1.279% increase in the dependent
variable, ceteris paribus. Although the statistical error in
the calculation of the constant exceeds 10%, the
estimate of the dependence of the volume of
manufacturing sales on changes in the foreign content of
GVA in exports is statistically significant, as the error
did not exceed 1%. The coefficient of determination
shows that the change in the volume of manufacturing
sales was 86.5% dependent on imports of intermediate
goods as a component of exports, and 13.5% dependent
on other factors. The calculated value of the Fisher's
criterion exceeded its tabulated value, which confirms
the tightness of the relationship between the dependent
and independent variables.
Since there is no correlation between industrial
development indicators and most of the indicators
characterising Ukraine's participation in global value
chains, we will conduct an additional study using the
share of foreign value added in exports by major
industries as independent variables (Table 8). The
dependent variables are the same as in the previous
regression analysis (Table 6).
Table 8
The share of foreign value added embodied in imported inputs in Ukraine's gross exports in 2010-2020, %
Year
F
oo
d
pr
od
uc
ts
,
be
ve
ra
ge
s,
to
ba
cc
o
T
ex
ti
le
s,
c
lo
th
in
g
W
oo
d
an
d
pa
pe
r
pr
od
uc
ts
C
he
m
ic
al
a
nd
ph
ar
m
ac
eu
ti
ca
l
pr
od
uc
ts
B
as
e
m
et
al
s
an
d
fi
ni
sh
ed
p
ro
du
ct
s
C
om
pu
te
rs
,
el
ec
tr
on
ic
a
nd
el
ec
tr
ic
al
eq
ui
pm
en
t
M
ac
hi
ne
ry
a
nd
eq
ui
pm
en
t
T
ra
ns
po
rt
eq
ui
pm
en
t
Food Textil Wood Chem Metal Comp Machin Transp
2010 24,7 15,8 34,0 46,0 46,5 30,2 30,7 31,7
2011 26,4 18,4 37,4 48,0 48,3 34,4 34,8 36,4
2012 29,7 23,6 41,1 48,6 50,0 39,4 39,1 36,4
2013 29,0 22,3 39,9 47,1 49,4 39,5 36,1 30,9
2014 28,2 22,9 38,1 43,6 45,8 38,1 35,9 31,8
2015 27,7 25,0 38,3 44,2 47,2 39,3 37,2 34,6
2016 28,5 26,5 37,9 42,0 43,6 38,4 35,7 34,5
2017 29,1 27,8 37,2 42,6 42,1 37,3 35,2 33,3
2018 28,5 27,9 36,7 41,5 38,6 36,5 34,0 34,4
2019 28,2 27,4 34,4 40,2 36,2 35,1 32,9 33,1
2020 25,0 25,7 32,0 37,3 34,3 35,1 33,3 33,4
Source: compiled by the author based on data.
According to the results of the calculations, there is
no statistically significant relationship between such
indicators of industrial development as the number of
introduced types of innovative products and the volume
of sold products of the processing industry and the share
of foreign added value embodied in imported resources
in the gross exports of the main industries of Ukraine.
There is also no statistically significant relationship
between such indicators as the share of industrial
enterprises that implemented innovations in the total
number of industrial enterprises and the number of
people employed in industry, and the share of foreign
value added embodied in imported inputs in Ukraine's
gross exports of food, wood and paper products,
chemical and pharmaceutical products, machinery and
equipment, and vehicles. There is no statistically
significant relationship between the number of people
employed in industry and the import component of
exports of food products, textiles and clothing, wood
products, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, machinery
and equipment, and vehicles.
However, the study found a direct significant
(R=0.783) relationship between the share of industrial
enterprises that implemented innovations in the total
number of industrial enterprises and changes in the share
of foreign value added in textile and clothing exports:
with a 1% increase in the independent variable, the
dependent variable increased by 0.475%, ceteris paribus
(Table 9). The coefficient of determination indicates
that the introduction of innovations at industrial
enterprises depended by 61.3% on the content of
imported components in exports of textile products and
clothing, which indicates the modernisation of
enterprises in this industry. The calculated value of the
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Fisher's criterion exceeds its tabulated value, which
confirms the existence of a close relationship between
the dependent and independent variables. The statistical
significance of the calculation results is acceptable,
since the level of statistical error of the regression did
not exceed 5%.
Table 9
Dependence of Ukraine's industrial development
indicators on the share of foreign value added
in exports by industry sector
Factorial signs
Dependent variable
Innov_ent Empl_ind
Number of
observations
11 11
Constant value 1,130**
(0,398)
7,292***
(1,012)
Textile 0,475***
(0,125)
-
Metal - 1,045***
(0,167)
Comp - -0,916***
(0,268)
R 0,783 0,917
R2 0,613 0,841
F- criterion F(1,9)=14,303 F(2,8)=21,275
* – statistical error rate 10%;
** – statistical error rate 5%;
*** – statistical error rate 1%.
Source: calculated by the author.
The regression analysis revealed a strong
(R=0.917) relationship between the number of people
employed in industry and the share of foreign value
added in exports of basic metals and finished metal
products, computers, electronic and electrical
equipment. The relationship between the number of
employed and the import component of exports of basic
metals and finished metal products was direct: a 1%
increase in the independent variable led to a 1.045%
increase in the dependent variable, ceteris paribus. At
the same time, the relationship between the number of
people employed in industry and the share of imported
GVA in exports of computers, electronic and electrical
equipment was inverse: a 1% increase in the
independent variable resulted in a 0.916% decrease in
the dependent variable, ceteris paribus. The coefficient
of determination shows that the number of people
employed at industrial enterprises depended by 91.7%
on the content of imported components in exports of
computers, electronic and electrical equipment, and
only by 8.3% on other factors. The calculated value of
the Fisher's criterion exceeds its tabulated value, which
confirms the tightness of the relationship between the
dependent and independent variables. The level of
statistical error in the regression did not exceed 1%,
which indicates the statistical significance of the results.
A regression analysis of the dependence of the
main indicators of industrial development on the share
of final products in Ukraine's exports by industry sector
in 2010-2021 revealed a significant (R=0.868) direct
impact of exports of finished woodworking products on
the volume of processed industry sales: a 1% increase in
the independent variable contributed to a 2.54%
increase in the dependent variable, ceteris paribus
(Table 9). The coefficient of determination shows that
the volume of industry sales depended by 86.8% on the
content of final products in exports of wood and wood
products, and by 13.2% on other factors. The calculated
value of the Fisher's criterion exceeds its tabulated value
(F(1,9)=27.673), which confirms the existence of a
close relationship between the dependent and
independent variables. The level of statistical error of
the regression did not exceed 1%, which indicates the
statistical significance of the results.
There is a direct strong (R=0.95) dependence of the
number of people employed at industrial enterprises on
the share of final products in textile exports: a 1%
increase in the independent variable contributed to a
2.732% increase in the dependent variable, ceteris
paribus (Table 10). The coefficient of determination
shows that the number of people employed at industrial
enterprises depended by 90.2% on the content of final
products in textile and clothing exports, and by 9.8% on
other factors. The calculated value of the Fisher's
criterion exceeds its tabulated value (F(1,9)=83.455),
which confirms the existence of a close relationship
between the dependent and independent variables. The
level of statistical error of the regression did not exceed
5%, which indicates the acceptability of the results.
Table 10
Dependence of Ukraine's industrial development
indicators on the share of final products
in exports by industry sector
Factorial signs
Dependent variable
Prod_ind Empl_ind
Number of
observations
11 11
Constant value 4,586***
(1,263)
-4,055**
(1,312)
Wood 2,540***
(0,482)
-
Textile - 2,732***
(0,299)
R 0,868 0,950
R2 0,754 0,902
F- criterion F(1,9)=27,673 F(1,9)=83,455
* – statistical error rate 10%;
** – statistical error rate 5%;
*** – statistical error rate 1%.
Source: calculated by the author.
According to the regression analysis, there is no
statistically significant relationship between such
indicators of industrial development as the number of
innovative products introduced and the share of
industrial enterprises that introduced innovations in the
total number of industrial enterprises and the share of
final products in exports of products of major industries.
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There is also no statistically significant relationship
between such indicators as the volume of industrial
output sold and the number of people employed in
industry and the share of final products in exports of
products from such industries as food, chemical and
pharmaceutical products, basic metals and finished
metal products, computers, electronic and electrical
equipment, machinery and equipment, and vehicles.
There is no statistically significant relationship between
the number of people employed in industry and the share
of final products in exports of wood and paper products,
nor between the volume of industrial sales and the share
of final products in exports of textiles and clothing.
Thus, the study has shown that the impact of
Ukraine's participation in global value chains is mainly
manifested through the dependence of the number of
people employed in industry and the volume of
industrial products sold on the foreign value added in
exports. The growth in the share of foreign value added
in exports of textiles and clothing, basic metals, and
finished metal products plays a major role in the
development of Ukrainian industry, which contributes
to the innovation activity of industrial enterprises and
increases employment in industry. At the same time, an
increase in the imported component of exports of
computers, electronic and electrical equipment leads to
a decrease in the number of people employed in
industry, but does not affect other indicators of
industrial development. The increase in the share of
final products in exports of wood products and textiles
and clothing, which indicates the involvement of these
industries in GVCs at the last stages of the production
process, had a positive impact on the volume of
industrial output sold and the number of people
employed in industry, respectively.
Conclusions. The article analyses and evaluates
the factors that have the greatest impact on the
participation of Ukrainian industry in global value
chains. The regression analysis confirmed the first
hypothesis regarding the dependence of Ukraine's return
participation in GVCs in 2010-2020 on the volume of
foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry,
the weak influence of the share of R&D expenditures in
GDP on the degree of direct participation in GVCs, and
the influence of the share of industrial employees in the
total number of employed and the share of innovative
products in the total volume of industrial products sold
on the degree of Ukraine's overall participation in GVCs
in the studied period.
The second hypothesis about the impact of
employment rates of the able-bodied population in
industry on the volume of foreign gross value added in
Ukraine's exports in the study period was partially
confirmed. At the same time, there was no influence of
indicators of innovation activity of industrial enter-
prises, the volume of FDI in the manufacturing industry
and capital investment in industry on the content of
foreign gross value added in Ukraine's exports.
The results of the regression analysis confirmed the
third hypothesis regarding the dependence of the
national GVA content in Ukraine's exports on the
dynamics of foreign direct investment in the
manufacturing industry, the share of R&D expenditures
in GDP, and R&D expenditures.
The impact of Ukraine's participation in GVCs on
the development of the domestic manufacturing
industry in 2010-2020 was manifested through:
– dependence of the number of people employed in
industry and the volume of industrial products sold on
the foreign content of GVA in exports;
– the dependence of the level of innovation activity
of industrial enterprises and the number of people
employed in industry on the growth of the share of
foreign value added in exports of textiles and clothing,
basic metals and finished metal products;
– the inverse dependence of the number of people
employed in industry on the increase in the imported
component in exports of computers, electronic and
electrical equipment;
– the positive impact of the share of final products
in exports of wood products on the volume of industrial
output sold, as well as the impact of the share of final
products in exports of textiles and clothing on the
growth of the number of people employed in industry.
Therefore, at the level of public policy, it is
necessary to promote deeper integration of Ukrainian
industry into global value chains, in particular by
strengthening support for foreign direct investment in
the manufacturing industry and enhancing the
innovation activities of enterprises. It is also important
to focus on the development of sectors with a high share
of foreign value added in exports, such as textiles,
clothing, and metallurgical products, which have a
positive impact on employment. In addition, it is
necessary to stimulate the reduction of dependence on
imported components in high-tech exports and support
the development of final production to restore and
ensure the competitiveness of the national economy.
Prospects for further research include an in-depth
study of the relationship between the integration of the
national economy into global value chains and the
transformation of the structure of national production, in
particular through the study of the impact of digital
technologies on the efficiency of industrial enterprises.
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Миценко В. Вплив участі України в глобальних ланцюгах створення вартості на конкурентоспроможність
національної економіки
У статті здійснено ідентифікацію та аналіз ключових чинників, що визначають участь української промисловості в
глобальних ланцюгах створення вартості (GVCs), з особливою увагою до їхнього впливу на конкурентоспроможність
національної економіки в умовах глобалізаційних процесів. За допомогою регресійного аналізу підтверджено, що пряма
участь України у GVCs значною мірою залежить від обсягів прямих іноземних інвестицій у переробну промисловість, а також
впливу працевлаштованих у промисловому секторі та обсягу інноваційної продукції на загальну інтеграцію у GVCs. Частково
підтверджено гіпотезу щодо впливу зайнятості в промисловості на вміст іноземної доданої вартості в експорті. Результати
аналізу підкреслюють важливість розвитку певних секторів, таких як текстильна промисловість та металургія, що позитивно
відображається на рівні зайнятості та інноваційній активності. Водночас виявлено необхідність скорочення залежності від
імпортної складової у виробах високих технологій. На основі отриманих висновків окреслено пропозиції для державної
політики, що передбачають посилення підтримки інвестицій в переробну промисловість, стимулювання інноваційних
процесів та розвитку виробництва кінцевої продукції, що сприятиме відновленню та забезпеченню конкурентоспроможності
економіки України на міжнародній арені.
Ключові слова: глобальні ланцюги створення вартості, конкурентоспроможність, національна економіка, промисловість.
Mytsenko V. The Impact of Ukraine's Participation in Global Value Chains on the Competitiveness of the National
Economy
The article identifies and analyses the key factors that determine the participation of Ukrainian industry in global value chains
(GVCs), with a special focus on their impact on the competitiveness of the national economy in the context of globalisation. Using
regression analysis, the article confirms that Ukraine's direct participation in GVCs largely depends on the volume of foreign direct
investment in the manufacturing industry, as well as the impact of the number of people employed in the industrial sector and the
volume of innovative products on the overall integration into GVCs. The hypothesis about the impact of industrial employment on the
content of foreign added value in exports was partially confirmed. The results of the analysis emphasise the importance of developing
certain sectors, such as textiles and metallurgy, which has a positive impact on employment and innovation activity. At the same time,
the need to reduce dependence on imports in high-tech products was identified. Based on the conclusions obtained, the article outlines
proposals for state policy, which envisage strengthening support for investment in the processing industry, stimulating innovation
processes and developing the production of final products, which will help restore and ensure the competitiveness of Ukraine's economy
in the international arena.
Keywords: global value chains, competitiveness, national economy, industry.
Received by the editors: 28.11.2024
Reviewed: 11.12.2024
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