Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine
In this research, the tolerability of the economy of Ukraine for the increase of the gas import price is investigated. The relationship between the economic growth and imported gas price is analyzed, and it was found that the gas consumption of the food and other smaller industries was growing while...
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Навчально-науковий комплекс "Інститут прикладного системного аналізу" НТУУ "КПІ" МОН та НАН України
2012
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| Cite this: | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine / Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish // Систем. дослідж. та інформ. технології. — 2012. — № 4. — С. 7-16. — Бібліогр.: 4 назв. — англ. |
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| author | Matsuki, Y. Bidyuk, P. Kalnytskyi, G. Gavrish, E. |
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| citation_txt | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine / Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish // Систем. дослідж. та інформ. технології. — 2012. — № 4. — С. 7-16. — Бібліогр.: 4 назв. — англ. |
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| description | In this research, the tolerability of the economy of Ukraine for the increase of the gas import price is investigated. The relationship between the economic growth and imported gas price is analyzed, and it was found that the gas consumption of the food and other smaller industries was growing while the gas price was increasing; although, the larger industries such as chemical and manufacturing industries reduced the gas consumption. It was also found that Ukraine may hold a capability to lower the gas import price to the degree comparable to the current price. For the analysis, the national statistics of every month from 2002 through 2008 was used with the least squares model and the ARMA model for time-series forecasting. The data contains the GDP, the imported gas price and volume, the PPIs for the food industry, the chemical industry, the manufacturers and the energy industry, as well as the gas volumes consumed by the industries of low price band, other than the manufacturers and the chemical industries.
Досліджено стійкість економіки України при зростаючій ціні на імпортований газ. Запропоновано методологію моделювання і прогнозування фінансово-економічних процесів, яка ґрунтується на ієрархічній процедурі пошуку структури і оптимізації параметрів моделей. Виконано аналіз залежності економічного зростання та ціни на імпортований газ. Цей аналіз виявив, що споживання газу для виробництва продуктів харчування та в інших, більш дрібних галузях виробництва, зростає при загальному зростанні ціни на імпортований газ. Тоді як крупніші галузі, такі як хімічна та виробнича, зменшували споживання газу під час зростання його ціни. Також виявлено можливість знижувати ціну на імпортований газ для України до рівня порівняного з поточною ціною.
Исследована устойчивость экономики Украины при растущей цене на импортированный газ. Предложена методология моделирования и прогнозирования финансово-экономических процессов, которая базируется на иерархической процедуре поиска структуры и оптимизации параметров моделей. Выполнен анализ зависимости экономического роста и цены на импортированный газ. Этот анализ выявил, что потребление газа при производстве продуктов питания и в других, более мелких отраслях производства растет при общем росте цен на импортированный газ. Тогда как более крупные отрасли, такие как химическая и производственная, снижали потребление газа при росте его цены. Также выявлена возможность снижать цену на импортированный газ для Украины до уровня, сопоставимого с текущей ценой.
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© Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish, 2012
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2012, № 4 7
TIДC
ПРОГРЕСИВНІ ІНФОРМАЦІЙНІ ТЕХНОЛОГІЇ,
ВИСОКОПРОДУКТИВНІ КОМП’ЮТЕРНІ
СИСТЕМИ
UDC 519.004.942
ENERGY SECURITY COST AS AN EXTERNALITY —
INCREASED GAS IMPORT PRICE AND
ECONOMY OF UKRAINE
Y. MATSUKI, P. BIDYUK, G. KALNYTSKYI, E. GAVRISH
In this research, the tolerability of the economy of Ukraine for the increase of the
gas import price is investigated. The relationship between the economic growth and
imported gas price is analyzed, and it was found that the gas consumption of the food
and other smaller industries was growing while the gas price was increasing; although,
the larger industries such as chemical and manufacturing industries reduced the gas
consumption. It was also found that Ukraine may hold a capability to lower the gas
import price to the degree comparable to the current price. For the analysis, the na-
tional statistics of every month from 2002 through 2008 was used with the least
squares model and the ARMA model for time-series forecasting. The data contains the
GDP, the imported gas price and volume, the PPIs for the food industry, the chemical
industry, the manufacturers and the energy industry, as well as the gas volumes con-
sumed by the industries of low price band, other than the manufacturers and the
chemical industries.
INTRODUCTION
The term, energy security, refers to the economic security of a country that is rela-
tively dependent on imports of energy resources from one or more suppliers with
considerable market power such as OPEC and/or that is vulnerable to oil price
shocks [1]. Energy security costs have two major components. One component of
the energy security cost is the macroeconomic adjustment for the sudden change
of the import price in a short term, which is not reflected in the market price of
the energy supply. One more component is the economic rent as a long term cost
of the imports, which the oil/gas producing countries extract from the market
through its power as cartel, which makes the price of energy resource unnecessarily
high. Theoretically an importer with considerable market power, such as the
USA, could recover this rent owing to its monopsony power as a major consumer
of oil. Here, the energy security cost is an externality, which is a concept of mi-
croeconomics theory, and which creates a negative or positive impact that is not
included in the domestic market price of energy.
The territory of Ukraine is on the major route of natural gas pipe-lines ex-
ported from Russia to the countries of the European Union, while the natural gas
being consumed in Ukraine is currently imported from Russia and Turkmenistan
Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2012, № 4 8
in addition to the domestic gas production. The price of the imported natural gas
is being increased over the last decade. The price negotiation is a political issue
every year between Ukraine and Russia, and it led to an international gas crisis in
Europe as the gas supply was stopped for a few months to the European Union
due to the delay of the price settlement at the beginning of 2009. Therefore the
price negotiation is not only the issue of only Ukraine and Russia, and it is neces-
sary to analyze the macroeconomic adjustment capability of the price increase and
the potential bargaining power of the price.
In this study, the approach to identify the energy security cost of energy
importing countries [1] was used for investigating the tolerability of the economy
of Ukraine for the increase of the gas import price. The analysis made in this
research is twofold. First the relationship between the economic growth and
imported gas price was analyzed upon the Gross Domestic Production (hereinafter,
«GDP») imported gas price, imported gas volume, the Production Price Index
(hereinafter, «PPI»), the Consumer Price Index (hereinafter, «CPI»), and consumed
gas volumes by different industries. On this step, it was assumed that the increase of
gas import price gives negative impact to the economy as it was observed in the
precedent study in the US [1, 2]. Second, the potential bargaining power of Ukraine
upon the gas-price was discussed. On this step, a model of monopsony [1–4] was
used, which assumes that the importer is a single buyer.
METHODOLOGY
The issues on energy security caught attentions by the oil importing countries
such as the United States, Germany and Japan after the oil embargo in the 1970s,
which was triggered by the Yom Kippur War in the Middle East that started in
October 1972. Later the concept of the energy security cost emerged in the United
States during the 1990s, and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory published rele-
vant studies [1, 3, 4] within the series of the studies on external costs of electricity
generation systems. The general layout of an adaptive data processing and model
selection procedure is given in Fig. 1, a, b.
The modeling and forecasting methodology reflected by Fig. 1, a, b corre-
sponds to the system analysis approach that is based on hierarchical model search
procedure and optimization of model parameters by appropriately selected estima-
tion technique. The methodology presented is highly flexible thanks to the use of
ACF and PACF functions, correlation matrix and various tests for stationarity
analysis and detection of nonlinearity. Also flexibility is provided by the wide set
of modern parameter estimation techniques such as maximum likelihood, Monte
Carlo for Markov chains and others.
Macroeconomic adjustment cost is estimated as the negative impacts to the
GDP, upon the sudden hike of the oil price [1, 4]. To estimate the impacts, the
common approach is to analyze the history of the price shock. In this study, the
national statistics of Ukraine of every month from 2002 through 2008 was used for
the analysis with the tools for the statistical analysis, the least squares model and the
ARMA model for time-series forecasting. The data contains the GDP, the imported
gas price and volume, the PPIs for the food industry, the chemical industry, the
manufacturers and the energy industry, as well as the gas volumes consumed by the
industries of low price band, other than the manufacturers and the chemical indus-
tries. The descriptive statistics of those input data are shown in Table 1.
Energy security cost as an externality — increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2012, № 4 9
Fig. 1, b. Adaptive estimation of a process model
Forecasting function construction
Forecast estimation
Forecast quality
is satisfactory?
A set of a forecast
quality statistics
No
Yes
Inference on the basis of a forecast estimate
Decision quality
is acceptable?
A set of decision
quality statistics
Yes
No
b
a
Fig. 1, а. Adaptive estimation of a process model
Preliminary
data processing
Data
Extra data
Testing for
nonlinearity
Time delay
estimation
Disturbance
analysis
Model structure estimation
Selection of parameter estimation technique(s)
OLS NLS ML MCMC
Model quality is
satisfactory?
A set of model
quality statistics
Determining type of
distribution and trend
ACF and PACF
analysis
Correlation
matrix analysis
Extreme
value analysis
Yesb а
Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2012, № 4 10
T a b l e 1 . Descriptive statistics of the variables
Statistiks
GDP
(Billion
US$)
P
(US$/1000
m3)
Q
(Billion
m3)
othersQ
(Billion
m3)
fPPI mPPI cPPI ePPI
AP
(Million
U$)
Mean 5.21 97.7 4.40 0.963 100.8 101.4 101.2 101.6 982
Median 4.35 75.0 4.43 0.890 100.6 101.5 101.1 100.9 727
Maximum 11.6 220 4.73 1.82 104.5 106.2 110.7 114.5 5835
Minimum 1.84 40.0 4.00 0.730 98.3 94.2 92.5 93.6 180
Std. Dev. 2.68 59.0 0.270 0.240 1.18 1.71 2.17 3.26 916
Skewness 0.769 0.569 –0.215 1.31 0.672 –0.987 0.0234 1.16 2.49
Kurtosis 2.56 1.89 1.48 4.44 3.94 7.25 10.3 6.15 11.7
Observa-
tions 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 84
The next step is to estimate how much economic rent held by the energy
exporting country can be bargained by the importer’s monopsony power.
According to Leiby [2], the US can influence the world oil price by reducing the
domestic oil consumptions with some policy like excise tax as a monopsony
(single buyer), and this is an externality which is not accounted in the domestic oil
price. This theory is also reviewed by the International Atomic Energy Agency
[1] and the US National Academy [4]. In this study, the applicability of this theory
was investigated in the case of gas import from Russia to Ukraine, and the range of
potential recovery of the economic rent to be held by the gas exporters, which is to
be used for forecasting the changes of gas import price in near future. The amount
of the premium price ME of natural gas import, which is the recovered amount by
the monopsony power of Ukraine from the economic rent of gas producing
countries, is to be calculated by the following equation [2]:
ε
ww
M p
dM
dpME == . (1)
Here, ε is the price elasticity of supply,
M
p
dp
dMM
w
w=ε ; M is the imported
volume of oil or gas; wp is the world price of oil or gas.
Descriptive statistics of the variables used for analysis is given in Table 1.
Note. GDP: Gross Domestic Production, P — the natural gas import price;
Q the imported gas volume; othersQ — the gas volumes consumed by the
industries of the low price band, other than the manufacturers and the chemical
industries; fPPI — PPI of the food industry; mPPI — PPI for the
manufacturers; cPPI —PPI for the chemical industry; ePPI — PPI for the energy
industry; AP — Agricultural product (million US dollars).
Energy security cost as an externality — increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2012, № 4 11
RESULTS
Gas Import Price and Economic Growth
In the precedent studies in the US [1, 4], there was a view such that the
macroeconomic adjustment cost that absorbes the sudden increase of the oil
import price is the externality that is not included in the oil price in the US
domestic market. This view was based on the assumption that the sudden increase
of the imported oil price disturbed the GDP growth, and therefore this economic
loss is not included in the market price of the imported oil. However, the data of
natural gas import price and the GDP shows an opposite relation in case of
Ukraine, i.e., when the gas import price went up, the GDP grew as shown in
Fig. 2. On the other hand, when the gas import price went up, the imported gas
volume was reduced as shown in Fig. 3. Upon these findings, the futher analysis
was made as shown bellow.
For finding the reason for the positive correlation between the gas import
price and the GDP, the degrees of
correlations between the variables
are investigated as shown in Table 2.
As a result, it was found that the
GDP, the gas import price, the
PPI for the food industry and the
consumed gas volume by the
industries of low price band such
as the food industry have the
correlations with each other.
Upon this finding, a model was
constructed as shown in Fig. 4,
with the assumption that the
change of the gas import price
influenced the demand of the gas
Fig. 2. Temporal change of GDP and Gas Import Price
Fig. 3. Temporal change of Imported Natural Gas
Volume
20 40 60 80 100Jan
2002
Jan
2004
Jan
2008
Billion US$
Imported gas volume
Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2012, № 4 12
consumption for the industries of low price band, and then the input price rose,
inducing the higher PPI for the food industry, and then the GDP grew. Each step
of the model constructing was investigated with the least squares method, and the
results are shown in Table 3.
T a b l e 2 . Correlations between the variables
Vari-
ables GDP P Q othersQ fPPI mPPI cPPI ePPI AP
GDP 1 0.963 –0.694 0.828 0.404 –0.021 0.132 0.133 0.500
P 1 –0.762 0.871 0.396 –0.052 0.0763 0.173 0.355
Q 1 –0.687 –0.133 –0.149 –0.130 –0.236 –0.218
othersQ 1 0.477 –0.00513 0.114 0.119 0.205
fPPI 1 0.241 0.181 –0.0767 0.0557
mPPI 1 0.567 0.124 0.0307
cPPI 1 0.0904 0.120
ePPI 1 –0.0343
AP 1
T a b l e 3 . Regression Analysis on Gas Import Price, GDP, PPI and Gas
Consumption
Model Independent
variable
Coefficient
(a, b, c..)
t-
Statistics R2 Durbin-
Watson
AIC Schwartz
Interception –3.60 –1.71
P 0.0470 23.2 1
=GDP
QcPba ∗+∗+=
Q 0.960 2.16
0.932 0.481 2.18 2.26
Interception –94.2 –3.56
fPPI 1.01 4.36
mPPI 0.219 1.48
cPPI –0.396 –2.07
2
+= aGDP
+∗+ fPPIb
+∗+ cPPIc
+∗+ mPPId
ePPIe ∗+ ePPI 0.150 1.83
0.233 0.353 4.65 4.79
Interception 98.5 208
3
=fPPI
othersQba ∗+= othersQ 2.34 4.91
0.227 0.742 2.95 3.00
Interception 0.616 24.5 4 PbaQ ∗+=others
P 0.00355 16.1 0.759 1.25 –1.40 –1.34
The correlation between the PPI of the food industry and the GDP is rela-
tively stronger than with the other PPIs (Table 3, Model 2). Here the PPI for the
food industry is the indicator of the changes of the price over time period. In gen-
eral, when the quantity of the production increases over the whole industry, the
prices of input materials will also increase [3]. As the evidence, the PPI for the
food industry has a correlation with the gas consumption of the smaller size in-
dustries including the food industry (Table 3, Model 3). Therefore, the above cor-
relation means that there is a possibility that the growth of the food industry con-
tributed to the GDP growth.
Energy security cost as an externality — increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2012, № 4 13
The further investigation was made on the growth of the food industry,
which is the correlation between the gas consumption of the food industry and the
gas import price. Here, however, the gas consumption volume specific to the food
industry was not available, but the small and middle size industries, including the
food industry. As a result, it was recognized that there is a considerable correla-
tion between the gas import price and the gas consumption by the industries of
low price band including the food industry (Table 3, Model 4).
The gas consumption volume by the small-middle size industries has a
positive correlation with the gas import price. With this finding, it is assumed that
the input prices of the food industry rose, and it led to the GDP growth. Given this
assumption, the food industry consumed more gas and led to the GDP growth.
Upon the above finding, Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 can be explained, which shows
that the GDP was still growing while the imported gas volume was being reduced.
At first, the small-middle size industries such as the food industry grew, while the
larger industries such as the energy, the chemical and the manufacturing indus-
tries reduced the gas consumption, in order to minimize the negative impacts to
the economy, which could be led by the increased gas import price. Then, the
saved cost by reducing the imported gas volume could have been spent elsewhere
of the macro-economy of Ukraine, such as in the food industry, and it could be
the macroeconomics adjustment cost. Upon this assumption, the marginal in-
crease of the gas import price per unit volume of the reduced imported gas was
calculated to obtain the sum of the saved cost by reducing the gas import volume,
as shown bellow:
.)(
1
10 ∑
=
−×=
n
i
ii QQPP (11)
Here, 0P is the unit saved cost per volume; 1Q is the gas imported volume in
January 2004 when the imported gas volume started declining; iP is the monthly
gas import price, and iQ is monthly imported gas volume; i is the suffix that in-
dicates each month. For example, 1=i means January 2004 and ni = means De-
cember 2008.
Calculated values are 3,484,050,000 US dollars for ∑
=
−×
n
i
ii QQP
1
1 )( ,
22,000,000,000 m3 for ∑
=
−
n
i
iQQ
1
1 )( , and 159 US dollars/1000 m3 for .0P
However, the macroeconomics adjustment costs are usually calculated as the
reduction of the GDP due to the sudden increase of the energy price [1, 4], and
this case, as shown in Fig. 2, is opposite to such common practice. Therefore,
there is also a possibility that the calculated value, 159 US dollars/1000 m3, is not
the adjustment cost of the macro-economy, which is to respond to the price shock,
but rather there should be a view such that the economic growth could have in-
duced the imported gas price.
GDP PPI Demand for gas Gas import price
Fig. 4. The relations of GDP, the gas import price and the other variables
Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2012, № 4 14
The GDP growth was further analyzed with the gas import price with the
autoregression, and then the forecast of the GDP growth was made. The result is
shown in Table 4 and Fig. 5. The analysis was made upon the actual data between
January 2002 and December 2008, and Fig. 5 shows that the GDP is growing af-
ter December 2008. However, due to the economic crisis in 2008, the actual
economy of Ukraine shrunk in 2009, while it was recovered in 2010 with 4.3 %
increase of the GDP.
T a b l e 4 . Forecast of the GDP increase
Model Independed
variable
Coeff.
(a, b, c..)
t-
Statistics R2 Durbin-
Watson AIC Schwartz
Intercept 0.174 1.14
GDP(–1) 0.722 8.71
0.969 1.91 1.41 1.56
P(–1) –0.00594 –0.629 RMSE MAPE Theil Numb.
of ovs.
P(–7) 0.0125 1.39
+= aGDP
+−∗+ )1(GDPb
+−∗+ )1(Pc
kPd +−∗+ )7(
k 0.0201 1.87
0.626 9.01 0.0517 77
Influence to the gas import price as a monopsony
With the equation (1), the amount of the premium price ME of natural gas im-
port, which is the theoretically bargained amount by the monopsony power of
Ukraine out from the economic rent of gas producing countries, is dependent on
the price elasticity of gas supplyε . But the price elasticity of gas supplyε is not
obtainable because it is related to the marginal production costs of the producers.
Therefore in this study, the premium was calculated for 9 discreet values of ε
from 0.2 to 5.0 as shown in Table 5.
As of January 2011, the announced gas import price to Ukraine was 264 US
dollars/1000m3, therefore if the price elasticity of supply ε is 1.0, the premium
Billion US$
Fig. 5. Forecast of GDP by Gas Import Price with autoregression (–1, –7)
Energy security cost as an externality — increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine
Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології, 2012, № 4 15
price, ,ME of natural gas import is 264 US dollars/1000m3; while, if ε is 2.0,
ME will be 132 US dollars/1000m3. However, regarding the gas pipelines in-
stalled in the territory of Ukraine as well as the further gas export to the EU from
Russia, the price elasticity of supply ε could be inelastic, i.e., less than 1.0 be-
cause the elasticity will be smaller if the suppliers have less flexibility in changing
the quantity of supply upon the change of the price. In this case, the premium
price, ,ME of natural gas import could exceed the current gas import price. This
finding means that the gas import price could be as higher as this premium price if
Ukraine doesn’t have the monopsony power.
T a b l e 5 . The premium price of natural gas import (US dollars/1000 3m ) at the
gas import price of 264 US dollars/1000m3
Price elasticity
of supply ε 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Premium price EM
(US dollars/1000 m3) 1320 660 440 330 264 132 88 66 52.8
CONCLUSIONS
The national statistics of Ukraine from 2002 through 2008 was used for the analy-
sis, with the statistical tool, the multiple regression model and the ARMA model.
As the result, despite the preliminary assumption, it was found statistically with
accurate correlations that the GDP still grew while the gas import price was in-
creased; although, the imported gas volume was reduced while the GDP was
growing.
The modeling and forecasting methodology presented in this paper corre-
sponds to the system analysis approach that is based on hierarchical model search
procedure and optimization of model parameters by appropriately selected estima-
tion technique. The methodology presented is highly flexible thanks to the use of
ACF and PACF functions, correlation matrix and various tests for stationarity
analysis and detection of nonlinearity. The flexibility is also provided by the wide
set of modern parameter estimation techniques such as maximum likelihood,
Monte Carlo for Markov chains and others.
Upon the above finding, the further investigation was made on the
relationship between the gas import price and the PPI of different industries; and,
it was found that PPI of food industry has stronger correlation with the GDP
growth than the PPIs for the other industries such as the chemical, the
manufacturing and the energy. Also, the gas consumption of the industries of low
price band, such as the food industry, was found positively correlated with the gas
price increase.
The result of the above investigation suggests that the gas consumption of
the food and other smaller industries was growing as the gas import price was
increasing; while, the larger industries such as the chemical and the manufactur-
ing reduced the gas consumption.
Assuming that the saved cost by reducing the imported gas volume was spent
elsewhere of the macro-economy of Ukraine, such as the food industry, and it
Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish
ISSN 1681–6048 System Research & Information Technologies, 2012, № 4 16
could be the macroeconomics adjustment cost, the marginal increase of the gas
import price per unit volume of the reduced imported gas was calculated as 159
US dollars/1000 m3.
There is also a possibility such that the growth of the GDP by the food and
other small industries rather stimulated the increase of gas import price. There-
fore, further investigation is needed before determining that the cost used for
growing the food industry is the externality of the energy price.
Ukraine may hold a monopsony power to lower the price of gas import with
the size comparable to the current gas import price, although depending on the
price elasticity of gas import price, which further depends on the options of ex-
porters’ current capacity of gas production and gas delivery. Further investigation
is needed for identifying the price elasticity of gas supply to Ukraine.
The above assumption of the monopsony power held by Ukraine is based on
the fact that the natural gas pipelines installed in the territory of Ukraine is the
major route of the natural gas export from Russia and Turkmenistan to the EU.
However, this situation may not be sustainable because of the volatile global natu-
ral gas trades, and it is necessary to observe any possibility of changes in near
future. Besides, Russia will start to use the Northern Flow pipeline soon what will
change the situation with the natural gas transit.
The future research should be directed towards taking into considerations ex-
tra economic indicators as well as further improvement of the model construction
methodology based on the use of statistical data and adaptive system analysis ap-
proach. The current economy of Ukraine after the world-wide economic crisis in
2008-2009 is of interest for the further investigation in near future.
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2. Leiby. P.N, Jones D.W, Curlee T.R. and Lee R. Oil Imports: An Assessment of Bene-
fits and Costs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 1997. — 93 p.
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Received 08.09.2011
From the Editorial Board: the article corresponds completely to submitted manuscript
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| id | nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-50189 |
| institution | Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| issn | 1681–6048 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-12-07T13:19:11Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | Навчально-науковий комплекс "Інститут прикладного системного аналізу" НТУУ "КПІ" МОН та НАН України |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | Matsuki, Y. Bidyuk, P. Kalnytskyi, G. Gavrish, E. 2013-10-06T19:22:24Z 2013-10-06T19:22:24Z 2012 Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine / Y. Matsuki, P. Bidyuk, G. Kalnytskyi, E. Gavrish // Систем. дослідж. та інформ. технології. — 2012. — № 4. — С. 7-16. — Бібліогр.: 4 назв. — англ. 1681–6048 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/50189 519.004.942 In this research, the tolerability of the economy of Ukraine for the increase of the gas import price is investigated. The relationship between the economic growth and imported gas price is analyzed, and it was found that the gas consumption of the food and other smaller industries was growing while the gas price was increasing; although, the larger industries such as chemical and manufacturing industries reduced the gas consumption. It was also found that Ukraine may hold a capability to lower the gas import price to the degree comparable to the current price. For the analysis, the national statistics of every month from 2002 through 2008 was used with the least squares model and the ARMA model for time-series forecasting. The data contains the GDP, the imported gas price and volume, the PPIs for the food industry, the chemical industry, the manufacturers and the energy industry, as well as the gas volumes consumed by the industries of low price band, other than the manufacturers and the chemical industries. Досліджено стійкість економіки України при зростаючій ціні на імпортований газ. Запропоновано методологію моделювання і прогнозування фінансово-економічних процесів, яка ґрунтується на ієрархічній процедурі пошуку структури і оптимізації параметрів моделей. Виконано аналіз залежності економічного зростання та ціни на імпортований газ. Цей аналіз виявив, що споживання газу для виробництва продуктів харчування та в інших, більш дрібних галузях виробництва, зростає при загальному зростанні ціни на імпортований газ. Тоді як крупніші галузі, такі як хімічна та виробнича, зменшували споживання газу під час зростання його ціни. Також виявлено можливість знижувати ціну на імпортований газ для України до рівня порівняного з поточною ціною. Исследована устойчивость экономики Украины при растущей цене на импортированный газ. Предложена методология моделирования и прогнозирования финансово-экономических процессов, которая базируется на иерархической процедуре поиска структуры и оптимизации параметров моделей. Выполнен анализ зависимости экономического роста и цены на импортированный газ. Этот анализ выявил, что потребление газа при производстве продуктов питания и в других, более мелких отраслях производства растет при общем росте цен на импортированный газ. Тогда как более крупные отрасли, такие как химическая и производственная, снижали потребление газа при росте его цены. Также выявлена возможность снижать цену на импортированный газ для Украины до уровня, сопоставимого с текущей ценой. en Навчально-науковий комплекс "Інститут прикладного системного аналізу" НТУУ "КПІ" МОН та НАН України Системні дослідження та інформаційні технології Прогресивні інформаційні технології, високопродуктивні комп’ютерні системи Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine Вартість енергетичної безпеки як зовнішня змінна — стійкість економіки України при зростаючій ціні на імпортований газ Стоимость энергетической безопасности как внешняя переменная — устойчивость экономики Украины при растущей цене на импортированный газ Article published earlier |
| spellingShingle | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine Matsuki, Y. Bidyuk, P. Kalnytskyi, G. Gavrish, E. Прогресивні інформаційні технології, високопродуктивні комп’ютерні системи |
| title | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine |
| title_alt | Вартість енергетичної безпеки як зовнішня змінна — стійкість економіки України при зростаючій ціні на імпортований газ Стоимость энергетической безопасности как внешняя переменная — устойчивость экономики Украины при растущей цене на импортированный газ |
| title_full | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine |
| title_fullStr | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine |
| title_full_unstemmed | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine |
| title_short | Energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of Ukraine |
| title_sort | energy security cost as an externality—increased gas import price and economy of ukraine |
| topic | Прогресивні інформаційні технології, високопродуктивні комп’ютерні системи |
| topic_facet | Прогресивні інформаційні технології, високопродуктивні комп’ютерні системи |
| url | https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/50189 |
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