On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms
Предложен новый универсальный алгоритм расчета уровня культуры безопасности, применяемый для анализа состояния безопасности потенциально опасного объекта. Использован метод группового учета аргументов. Описана процедура расчета весовых коэффициентов и соответствующая процедура нормировки для адекват...
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| Опубліковано в: : | Управляющие системы и машины |
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| Дата: | 2014 |
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Міжнародний науково-навчальний центр інформаційних технологій і систем НАН та МОН України
2014
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| Цитувати: | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms / V.V. Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, S.V. Begun // Управляющие системы и машины. — 2014. — № 6. — С. 59-64. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. |
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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine| _version_ | 1860049342792990720 |
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| author | Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, V.V. Begun, S.V. |
| author_facet | Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, V.V. Begun, S.V. |
| citation_txt | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms / V.V. Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, S.V. Begun // Управляющие системы и машины. — 2014. — № 6. — С. 59-64. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. |
| collection | DSpace DC |
| container_title | Управляющие системы и машины |
| description | Предложен новый универсальный алгоритм расчета уровня культуры безопасности, применяемый для анализа состояния безопасности потенциально опасного объекта. Использован метод группового учета аргументов. Описана процедура расчета весовых коэффициентов и соответствующая процедура нормировки для адекватного учета вклада от разных индикаторов в интегральный показатель уровня культуры безопасности.
The new universal algorithm for safety culture level assessment is proposed, it is applicable for the safety analysis of any kind of the dangerous object. The Group Method of Data Handling is used. Weighting coefficients calculation procedure with corresponding normalization procedure are proposed for adequate account of the different safety indicators contribution to the integral safety culture level index.
Запропоновано новий універсальний алгоритм розрахунку рівня культури безпеки, застосовний до аналізу стану безпеки потенційно небезпечного об’єкта. Використано метод групового врахування аргументів. Описано процедуру розрахунку вагових коефіцієнтів та відповідну процедуру нормування для адекватного врахування внеску від різних індикаторів у інтегральний показник рівня культури безпеки.
|
| first_indexed | 2025-12-07T16:59:25Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
УСиМ, 2014, № 6 59
Проблемы информационной безопасности
UDC 004.021
V.V. Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, S.V. Begun
On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application
of Inductive Learning Algorithms
Предложен новый универсальный алгоритм расчета уровня культуры безопасности, применяемый для анализа состояния
безопасности потенциально опасного объекта. Использован метод группового учета аргументов. Описана процедура расчета
весовых коэффициентов и соответствующая процедура нормировки для адекватного учета вклада от разных индикаторов в
интегральный показатель уровня культуры безопасности.
The new universal algorithm for safety culture level assessment is proposed, it is applicable for the safety analysis of any kind of the
dangerous object. The Group Method of Data Handling is used. Weighting coefficients calculation procedure with corresponding nor-
malization procedure are proposed for adequate account of the different safety indicators contribution to the integral safety culture level
index.
Запропоновано новий універсальний алгоритм розрахунку рівня культури безпеки, застосовний до аналізу стану безпеки по-
тенційно небезпечного об’єкта. Використано метод групового врахування аргументів. Описано процедуру розрахунку вагових
коефіцієнтів та відповідну процедуру нормування для адекватного врахування внеску від різних індикаторів у інтегральний
показник рівня культури безпеки.
Introduction. The modern concept of safety en-
suring at the dangerous objects through develop-
ment of safety culture is widely embedded in the
world nuclear industry and begins embedment in
other industries [1–19]. However, at present, as
shown in [3, 4, 9–11, 14, 18], exists the problem
of safety culture level assessment correctness with
account of maximum number of factors to ensure
the objectivity of the assessment. The existing
methods for safety culture level assessment have
the following disadvantages:
ensuring only the qualitative assessment;
essentially depending on expert`s qualifica-
tion and the level of actual knowledge of respon-
dents;
have restricted possibilities on quantitative
assessment of integral safety culture level.
The strong correlation relationship between the
determined safety culture indexes and general
safety performance indicators at the studied dan-
gerous objects was obtained as a result of investi-
gations [7, 8, 13, 15, 17–19]. It was proved, that
the improvement of safety culture level results in
corresponding improvement of general safety per-
formance indicators at these investigated objects.
At present safety culture estimation at the dan-
gerous objects is carried out by questionnaire sur-
vey of the personnel or by expert evaluation [1–19].
But such estimations could include significant errors
due to the insufficient qualification of experts or due
to errors of judgment of the respondents [10, 14, 18].
Additional difficulties arising as a consequences of
the existence of huge number of discrepant safety
culture definitions with corresponding methods of
assessment [3, 4, 9, 10, 14, 16].
At the same time, the propagation of the modern
concept of safety culture ensuring towards the other
industries gives the possibility to improve the gen-
eral level of technogenic safety for any country in
the world. But at this direction there is a problem of
absence of the universal safety culture level assess-
ment method applicable to the wide range of dan-
gerous objects [3, 4, 9, 10, 14, 16]. Therefore, the
investigators of the problem call for the develop-
ment of the universal safety culture level assessment
method, which should include the modern risk man-
agement, the classical engineering principles and
concepts, indices of dangerous object`s operational
effectiveness [3, 4, 9, 10, 14, 16].
Therefore, in the work [18] the possibility of nu-
merical evaluation of safety culture at NPP is pro-
posed not by questionnaire survey of the personnel
or by expert evaluation, but through numerical cal-
culation based on documented during the operation
60 УСиМ, 2014, № 6
of the dangerous object data. Only the data concern-
ing psychological climate at the team and at the
whole collective are investigated through question-
naire survey in this case (sociometric indicators) –
all other data are taken from documentation or cal-
culated based on documented data. The list of possi-
ble safety indicators, variables and indexes was de-
veloped for this purpose [18]. This list could be sup-
plemented with new elements. Such numerical eva-
luation of safety culture level could be adopted for
any kind of dangerous objects with development of
corresponding set of object specific indicators, vari-
ables and indexes.
Safety culture is a complex characteristic of
safety conditions at the dangerous object. Safety
culture reflects both the technical component of
safety and the contribution of human factor. The
safety culture investigation includes the analysis
of the financial currents, sufficiency and effi-
ciency of financial resources directed to mainte-
nance and improvement of safety, technical state
of the object, risks related to technical state of the
object, staffing level and qualification of person-
nel, risks related to human factor, performance of
object operation [18, 19]. All these parameters
have different dimensions and characterize differ-
ent kinds of activity related to safety conditions
level at the object. Therefore, relative units (di-
mensionless) for the safety parameters should be
used under safety culture level assessment to re-
flect the sufficiency level of corresponding pa-
rameters. Weighting coefficients should be used
for each safety parameter to reflect the adequate
contribution of separate parameter to the general
level of safety culture at the object.
Therefore, the next step was the development
of the universal safety culture integral level as-
sessment method for any kind of dangerous object
according to the above mentioned requirements,
which should be applicable for the occasional as-
sessment of safety culture level as well as for the
online calculations of current safety culture level
at the dangerous objects.
Safety Culture Assessment Method Concept
We propose to calculate the Integral Safety
Culture Index (SCL) at the dangerous object by
the next formula:
1
1 n
i i
i
SCL S
W
, (1)
where n – the number of safety culture indicators;
Si – the relative value of i-th safety culture indica-
tor, in relative units (dimensionless); i – weight
coefficient, which corresponds to the i-th safety
culture indicator;
1
n
i
i
W
.
Coefficients i in formula (1) are calculated us-
ing results of Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA),
including analysis of human factor influence,
which should be carried out before safety culture
assessment. PSA is carried out using standard
procedure as shown in the works [19–21]. Details
of i calculation procedure are given in the Part 4
of this article. Dimensionless relative values of
indicators Si are determined based on documented
dimensional values of safety indicators Sdoci with
application of normalization procedure as shown
in the Part 3 of this article. The stages of the cal-
culation are given in the Part 5 of this article.
Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) is al-
ready used for solving of the number of assessment
and prediction problems as shown in the works [18,
22, 23], including application to assessment of safe-
ty level at Nuclear Power Plants, as shown in the
works [18, 23]. Application of GMDH is especially
appropriate in the case, when the construction of the
full-scale physical model of the processes is compli-
cated or unsuitable. We propose to use GMDH for
the prediction of safety culture level and for the
online assessment of safety culture to reduce time
consuming measurements (determinations), calcula-
tions and questionnaire surveys.
To build the so called full-scale physical model
for correct calculation of current value and for short-
term and medium-term prediction of safety culture
level one should take into account a lot of factors
and interrelationships:
the personnel;
the equipment;
the internal interrelationships like personnel-
equipment, personnel-personnel, equipment-
equipment;
the external influences.
УСиМ, 2014, № 6 61
Therefore, the construction of physical model
will be time-consuming and complicated problem.
Thus, the application of nonphysical model based
on GMDH for safety culture level estimation will
be justified.
Thus, the GMDH is not used for calculation of
i coefficients in all cases and for Si values only
in the case of full scale investigation of safety cul-
ture level. We propose to use determined by
GMDH dependences like shown in formulae (2)
and (3) for the prediction of safety culture level
purposes and for the online assessment of safety
culture level.
( ),i jS f S ,i j (2)
( , ,..., ),i j k mS f S S S ; ; ...; .i j i k i m (3)
This approach gives us the possibility to meas-
ure (direct determination) the part of indicators
and the other part of the indicators could be de-
termined by extrapolation. Dependences (2) and
(3) in general could be nonlinear.
Correctness of the completed safety culture
level investigation is tested by applying the corre-
lation analysis to the investigation results – that is
the way the most experienced experts are fol-
lowed. The pairs of strongly correlated parameters
and the pairs of anticorrelated parameters Si and Sj
are used for these purposes. If the ratio
j
i
S
S
is out
of certain interval under certain values of other
parameters, then the investigation should be cate-
gorized as incorrect and the detailed error exami-
nation should be required with high qualified ex-
perts involvement. For this purpose, under com-
puter data handling, the appropriate diagrams for
different variants of strongly correlated parame-
ters and anticorrelated parameters ratio
j
i
S
S
should
be included into the decision making algorithm.
Topicality of this task is determined by the lack
of enough quantity of high qualified experts to
investigate all the dangerous objects, especially in
countries, where the transition from administrative
management to risk oriented management with
further transition to safety management based on
safety culture level investigation is happen [19].
Computer data handling in the safety culture level
investigation gives the possibility to involve the
less qualified experts for data collection and data
handling for the most of dangerous objects with
high qualified experts involving only under condi-
tions of determined incorrectness. This approach
gives the possibility to carry out the high quality
investigation of safety culture level and to opti-
mize the working time of high qualified experts
with the aim of maximum coverage of existing
dangerous objects.
The existence of data time series is required to
predict values of indicators by GMDH by con-
struction of time (t) dependences like Si = f (t) with
possibility of short-term and medium-term predic-
tion. Determined time dependences of the parame-
ters could be used for the optimization of time in-
tervals between the measurements (the direct de-
termination) with documentation of the full set of
the parameters by comparing of prediction error
with prescribed error level.
At this approach the task for the high qualified
experts, besides the carrying out of expertise at the
part of dangerous objects, will be creation of data
handling algorithms with account of specific for
certain types of dangerous objects. And one of the
tasks will be the search for the strongly correlated
and anticorrelated pairs of the indicators, the ratio
of which
j
i
S
S
could be used for testing of inves-
tigation results correctness. These determined de-
pendences between strongly correlated and anti-
correlated parameters will in addition simplify the
investigation of the safety culture worsening
causes and the determination of the most influence
factors. The representative sampling should be
selected by high qualified experts from the set of
existing dangerous objects for this purpose, which
according to GMDH should be split into two sub-
samplings. One of these subsamplings could be
used as external criteria for dependency variant
selection according to GMDH.
Normalization Procedure
We propose to restrict the range of values of
Safety Culture Level index (SCL) by the inter-
val of [0;1] for convenience of interpretation.
62 УСиМ, 2014, № 6
This will simplify the comparison of safety cul-
ture state of the different objects of the same
type and at different objects of the different
types.
We use the principle the greater the better in the
formula (1). Therefore, the relative value of i-th in-
dicator (Si) should be calculated by different for-
mulae dependent on the ratio of absolute value of
i-th indicator from documentation (Sdoci) to the
absolute value of i-th indicator from industry stan-
dard (Snormi) and due to the influence of the val-
ues of these indicators on the safety level.
If doc 0iS , norm 0iS and from the safety
point of view the greater Sdoci the better, then the
relative value of i-th indicator (Si) we propose to
calculate by the next formula:
doc
norm
i
i
i
S
S
S
, (4)
where Sdoci – the absolute value of i-th indicator
from documentation or calculated based on docu-
mentation, in appropriate dimension;
Snormi – the absolute value of i-th indicator
from industry standard, in appropriate dimension.
norm doci iS S .
If doc 0iS , norm 0iS and from the safety
point of view the lesser Sdoci the better, then the
relative value of i-th indicator (Si) we propose to
calculate by the next formula:
norm
doc
i
i
i
S
S
S
, (5)
where norm doci iS S .
If doc 0iS , norm 0iS and from the safety
point of view the lesser Sdoci the better, then the
relative value of i-th indicator (Si) we propose to
calculate by the next formula:
norm
doc
i
i
i
zv S
S
zv S
, (6)
where zv – the negligibly small value (for exam-
ple 10-12), which is used to avoid the situation of
division by zero and the uncertainty of the type
0/0. 0zv .
If the values of Sdoci are taken directly from
the current documentation of the object, but the
values of Snormi should be predetermined in the
national or international standards to characterize
the relative state of investigated parameters of the
object. From our point of view, the principle, like
ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) prin-
ciple in radiation safety, should be used under the
development of Snormi standards. The purpose of
such approach is to take into account the real
technical and economical possibilities of the cer-
tain type of industry in the certain country and in-
admissibility of designed unreachable criteria. Pe-
riodic revaluation of Snormi values should be ap-
plied in this approach according to improvement of
technical and economical parameters of the industry.
Using of such approach has an additional positive
psychological effect related to the absence of hope-
less situation and oppressive conditions in the vari-
ant of setting too stringent unreachable criteria. But,
the appropriate international standards should be
developed, when the possibility of transfrontier in-
fluence exists under accident or normal operation
conditions at the dangerous objects (nuclear indus-
try, chemical industry etc.). The consensus at the le-
vel of specialized international organizations should
be reached in this case.
From our point of view, setting the 10% better
than the best available at the industry values of
parameters as Snormi would be the best variant of
Snormi selection. Setting the excess level exactly
at 10% concerned with the demand, that 1iS , and
the psychology of human perception of changings.
Weighting coefficients calculation procedure
It is assumed, that PSA results for a given ob-
ject are available with human factor analysis or
appropriate industry average values of prob-
abilities are available. Appropriate Event Trees
(ET) and Fault Trees (FT) could be included as
the input data for the calculation algorithm. Ob-
ject specific data for the investigated object
could be calculated using Bayesian methods and
known methods of equipment ageing account if
the average industry data are available with ap-
propriate correction of data in the corresponding
ET and FT.
We propose to set values of i equal to the
probability of appropriate minimum cut sets from
УСиМ, 2014, № 6 63
the PSA results. Such choice gives the possibility
to realize independent from expert influence cal-
culation method and to provide the adequate con-
tribution of the different indicators according to
their influence on the general level of safety at the
object.
Thus, the probabilities of minimum cut sets, in
which a certain person or the part of the personnel
are involved, should be used for the calculation of
weighting coefficients for the sociometric indica-
tors. The probabilities of minimum cut sets for the
certain type of equipment should be used for the
calculation of weighting coefficients for the finan-
cial indicators concerning maintenance or re-
placement of the equipment. If the weighting co-
efficients for the indicators concerning financing
of education, training or qualification improve-
ment of the personnel are investigated, then the
probabilities of minimum cut sets, in which cer-
tain person or the part of the personnel are in-
volved, should be used.
The stages of safety culture level assessment
The stages of the safety culture level assessment
are given in the fig. 1. At this figure the main stages
of the calculations are given with the appointed
ones, where high qualified experts should be in-
volved. The input data for the calculations are: the
available documentation at the dangerous object,
including process monitoring data by measuring de-
vices; results of the additional measurements of the
parameters by the group of investigators; results of
the Probability Safety Analysis of this object; results
of the questionnaire survey concerning psychologi-
cal climate at the collective. The typical for this type
of object values of the parameters could be used as
the a priori data.
As was appointed out above, only the data
concerning psychological climate at the team
and at the whole collective are investigated
through questionnaire survey in this case (so-
ciometric indicators). All the other data are
taken from documentation or calculated based
on documented data.
The essential part of the routine work could be
performed by the less qualified experts as you can
see from the fig. 1.
Development of typical
algorithm for
safety culture analysis
Performing of PSA by using
existing typical pattern
Performing of the investigation
of dangerous object by using
existing typical algorithm
Analysis of correctness
of the performed investigation
Correct
Involvement of
high qualified experts
Finish
Yes
No
Errors examination
Performing of PSA
for the typical object
th
e
po
ss
ib
il
ity
o
f l
es
s
qu
al
if
ie
d
ex
pe
rt
s
in
vo
lv
em
en
t
Fig. 1. The stages of the calculations of safety culture level at the
dangerous object
Conclusions
The new universal algorithm is proposed for
safety culture level assessment, which is applica-
ble for the safety analysis of any kind of the dan-
gerous object.
For the proposed safety culture level calcula-
tion method with GMDH application it is as-
sumed, that PSA results for a given object are
available with the human factor analysis or appro-
priate industry average values of probabilities are
available.
Proposed variant of computer data handling in
safety culture level investigation gives the possi-
bility to involve the less qualified experts for data
collection and data handling for the most of the
dangerous objects with high qualified experts in-
volving only under conditions of determined in-
correctness. This approach gives the possibility to
carry out the high quality investigation of safety
culture level and to optimize the working time of
high qualified experts with the aim of maximum
coverage of existing dangerous objects.
64 УСиМ, 2014, № 6
Determined time dependences of the parame-
ters could be used for the optimization of time in-
tervals between measurements (direct determina-
tion) with documentation of the full set of the pa-
rameters by comparing of prediction error with
prescribed error level.
Proposed approaches for the calculation of
weighting coefficients and normalization procedure
give the possibility to realize independent from ex-
pert influence calculation method for safety culture
level index and to provide the adequate contribution
of the different indicators according to their influ-
ence on the general level of safety at the object.
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L. Hwang, G.-F. Liang, Jh.-Ts. Lin et al. // Safety Sci-
ence. – 2009. – 47, issue 3. – P. 425–435.
Поступила 07.11.2014
Тел. для справок: +38 044 526-5549, 245-8848 (Киев)
E-mail: begunw@ukr.net, vlitvin@ukrsoft.ua, shell3@ukr.net
© В.В. Бегун, В.В. Литвинов, С.В. Бегун, 2014
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| id | nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-83540 |
| institution | Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| issn | 0130-5395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-12-07T16:59:25Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Міжнародний науково-навчальний центр інформаційних технологій і систем НАН та МОН України |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, V.V. Begun, S.V. 2015-06-20T10:57:32Z 2015-06-20T10:57:32Z 2014 On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms / V.V. Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, S.V. Begun // Управляющие системы и машины. — 2014. — № 6. — С. 59-64. — Бібліогр.: 23 назв. — англ. 0130-5395 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/83540 004.021 Предложен новый универсальный алгоритм расчета уровня культуры безопасности, применяемый для анализа состояния безопасности потенциально опасного объекта. Использован метод группового учета аргументов. Описана процедура расчета весовых коэффициентов и соответствующая процедура нормировки для адекватного учета вклада от разных индикаторов в интегральный показатель уровня культуры безопасности. The new universal algorithm for safety culture level assessment is proposed, it is applicable for the safety analysis of any kind of the dangerous object. The Group Method of Data Handling is used. Weighting coefficients calculation procedure with corresponding normalization procedure are proposed for adequate account of the different safety indicators contribution to the integral safety culture level index. Запропоновано новий універсальний алгоритм розрахунку рівня культури безпеки, застосовний до аналізу стану безпеки потенційно небезпечного об’єкта. Використано метод групового врахування аргументів. Описано процедуру розрахунку вагових коефіцієнтів та відповідну процедуру нормування для адекватного врахування внеску від різних індикаторів у інтегральний показник рівня культури безпеки. en Міжнародний науково-навчальний центр інформаційних технологій і систем НАН та МОН України Управляющие системы и машины Проблемы информационной безопасности On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms О концепции оценки уровня культуры безопасности с использованием метода группового учета аргументов Концепція оцінки рівня культури безпеки з використанням методу групового врахування аргументів Article published earlier |
| spellingShingle | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms Begun, V.V. Lytvynov, V.V. Begun, S.V. Проблемы информационной безопасности |
| title | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms |
| title_alt | О концепции оценки уровня культуры безопасности с использованием метода группового учета аргументов Концепція оцінки рівня культури безпеки з використанням методу групового врахування аргументів |
| title_full | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms |
| title_fullStr | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms |
| title_full_unstemmed | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms |
| title_short | On Method Concept for Safety Culture Assessment with Application of Inductive Learning Algorithms |
| title_sort | on method concept for safety culture assessment with application of inductive learning algorithms |
| topic | Проблемы информационной безопасности |
| topic_facet | Проблемы информационной безопасности |
| url | https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/83540 |
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