Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector
This article is related to financial analysis of the space sector of economy. The aim of this project is to find out whether there is a bubble in the private segment of the global space economy or not. Different approaches to the definition of the financial bubble are overviewed. Depending on these...
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| Опубліковано в: : | Економічний вісник Донбасу |
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| Дата: | 2014 |
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Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України
2014
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| Назва журналу: | Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| Цитувати: | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector / A.V. Malyshko, D.Y. Parparov // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2014. — № 4(38). — С. 97-101. — Бібліогр.: 20 назв. — англ. |
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Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine| _version_ | 1860238182541426688 |
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| author | Malyshko, A.V. Parparov, D.Y. |
| author_facet | Malyshko, A.V. Parparov, D.Y. |
| citation_txt | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector / A.V. Malyshko, D.Y. Parparov // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2014. — № 4(38). — С. 97-101. — Бібліогр.: 20 назв. — англ. |
| collection | DSpace DC |
| container_title | Економічний вісник Донбасу |
| description | This article is related to financial analysis of the space sector of economy. The aim of this project is to find out whether there is a bubble in the private segment of the global space economy or not. Different approaches to the definition of the financial bubble are overviewed. Depending on these definitions several criteria were singled out as symptoms of the bubble appearance. The main part of the research grounds on the analysis of the dynamics of share prices of the companies which activity is related to space exploration and commercialization. Buffett`s approach to calculation of the intrinsic value was used to define over- or undervalued companies in the target sector. The research also concerns the analysis of frequency of new companies appearing on the market.
Ця стаття стосується фінансового аналізу сектору приватної космічної індустрії. Мета цієї статті полягає у визначенні наявності фінансового пузиря в приватному секторі глобальної космічної індустрії чи скасуванні можливості її існування. Розглянуті різні підходи до тлумачення дефініції «фінансовий пузир». Залежно від цих дефініцій низка критеріїв, що свідчать про формування пузиря, була запропонована. Основна частина дослідження базується на аналізі вартості акцій компаній, чия діяльність пов’язана з освоєнням та комерціалізацією космічного простору. Застосована методологія Уоррена Баффета для калькуляції внутрішньої вартості цінних паперів для виявлення недооціненихта переоцінених компаній у досліджуваному секторі економіки. Окрім цього, проведено аналіз періодичності утворення нових компаній на ринку аерокосмічної індустрії.
Эта статья касается финансового анализа сектора частной космической индустрии. Цель данной статьи заключается в определении наличия финансового пузыря в частном секторе мировой космической индустрии. В статье рассмотрены различные подходы к определению понятия «финансовый пузырь». В зависимости от этих дефиниций был предложен ряд критериев, свидетельствующих о формировании пузыря. Основная часть исследования базируется на анализе цены акций компаний, чья деятельность связана с освоением и коммерциализацией космического пространства. Применена методология Уоррена Баффета для калькуляции внутренней стоимости ценных бумаг для определения недооцененных и переоценённых компаний в целевом секторе экономики. Кроме этого, проанализирована частота появления новых компаний на рынке аэрокосмической индустрии.
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A. V. Malyshko, D. Y. Parparov
97
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(38), 2014
UDC 336.76 : 629.78
A. V. Malyshko,
PhD (Economy),
D. Y. Parparov,
Student majoring
Donetsk National Technical University
SEARCHING FOR FINANCIAL BUBBLE IN THE PRIVATE SPACE SECTOR
Modern market economy is not protected from the
risks which may lead to sharp decrease in rate of
growth or even to cutback of economic activity. As-
sessing and managing risks is required to lessen the
negative impact of possible crisis. In this sense, young
and developing sectors of economy are more vulnera-
ble to economic fluctuations as far as it takes several
years to work out an appropriate strategy to handle the
market crunch.
Among all the possible economic problems this
research concerns financial bubble and, consequently,
analysis of stock exchange. In this field Benjamin Gra-
ham and David Dodd are assumed to be pioneers who
distinguished market price of the stock from its intrin-
sic value. Since the first edition of “Security Analysis”
(Graham, Dodd 1934) [1] was published, it is consid-
ered to be the bible for investors. Almost 70 years later
in 2002 Robert Brenner published his “The Boom and
the Bubble: The US in the World Economy” [2] ana-
lyzing the causes of local and global bubbles of the 20th
century. Mark Faber and Warren Buffet accepted and
modernized the approach suggested by Graham and
Dodd. Warren Buffet published a revised edition of
“The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Val-
ue Investing” in 2006 [3]. Mark Faber used the concept
of value investing to assess the investment attractive-
ness of the Asian companies (“Tomorrow's Gold:
Asia's age of discovery”, Faber 2010) [4]. Among the
homeland researchers, Elena Chirkova deserves atten-
tion as an author of a unique book about the financial
bubbles [5]: not only did she present a detailed over-
view of the most important financial bubbles, but she
also singled out the most common causes of the bubble
bursts.
The aim of this work is to analyze the private
space sector of the world economy and to find out if
there is a financial bubble. To handle this issue, it is
relevant to define, what the “financial bubble” is,
which criteria points at its appearing, and then to com-
pare these theoretical conditions with the real situation
in the target sector.
According to the Space Foundation annual Space
Reports [6-11], share of Private Space Sector has been
steadily increasing since 2005 till the present and now-
adays it covers three fourth of the Global Space Mar-
ket. In addition, total Space expenditures rocketed from
$190 billion to more than $300billion (Figure 1).
40% 34% 31% 33% 33% 32% 27% 26% 24%
60% 66% 69% 67% 67% 68% 73% 74% 76%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Sh
ar
e
of
t
he
se
ct
or
in
t
he
T
ot
al
S
pa
ce
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re
s
Year
Total Space Expenditures,
$ billion
Commercial Governmental Total
Fig. 1. Total Space Expenditures, 2005-2013 [6-11]
A. V. Malyshko, D. Y. Parparov
98
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(38), 2014
However, despite the increasing funding, signifi-
cant step forward has not been taken yet. Space tourism
is not a reality, lunar resources are not available, and
asteroid mining is postponed until the next decade [8,
p.17]. Such an inconsistency between expenditures and
achievements may point at overvalued capacities of the
industry. Costs of the projects with a low return on
investment are getting higher, while most of these pro-
jects have a little value for shareholders. One can call it
a venture investment, but the situation is somehow
similar to the dotcom splash in the early 2000`s. Al-
most 15 years ago overconfident investors invested in
those companies that were related to online-business
without even paying attention at the financial state-
ments of the “dotcom” company. Ultimately, those
companies became too overvalued and the bubble had
burst as soon as investors had understood the differ-
ence between market price and intrinsic value of the
dotcom shares [5, p.238-240].
In the literature there exist different approaches to
the definition of the financial bubble. The challenge is
that the emerging bubble is hardly distinguishable from
the casual period of growth of the market. The most
common definition of the bubble is “a situation in
which prices for securities, especially stocks, rise far
above their actual value” [12-13].However this defini-
tion is generally thought to be of little practical use,
actually the former Federal Reserve Chairman Mr.
Greenspan once mentioned that “it was very difficult to
identify definitively a bubble until after the fact – that
is, when it is bursting we confirm its existence” [14].
Instead of quantitative, Robert Shiller suggested a
qualitative definition: “the term “bubble” refers to a
situation in which excessive public expectations of
future price increases cause prices to be temporarily
elevated” [15]. Elena Chirkova states that the bubble is
growth in prices, which can not be explained by the
fundamental factors and is followed by a sharp de-
crease after the bubble burst [5, p.244].
Despite there is no precise definition of the bubble
phenomenon, economists are united concerning its
causes. Financial bubble is suggested to appear as a
result of extra exhilaration on the stock market, when
investors all flock to a particular product or asset. In
this respect, Robert Shiller argues that “the stock price
increase is driven by irrational euphoria among indi-
vidual investors, fed by an emphatic media” [16]. The
biggest problem is that difference between developing
economy and pre-bubble situation on the market is
hardly distinguishable, and that has led to bubble bursts
several times in the past (like the dotcom crisis in the
beginning of the 21st century).
These are several “litmus papers” which can be
used for a primary analysis of a market:
− Nonlinear growth of the share prices during a
short time period;
− Growing number of companies that make IPO;
− Purely speculative attitude towards shares
(short period of owing particular shares);
− Most companies shares are overvalued: their
intrinsic price is lower than the market one [5, p.235-
247].
Space Foundation, the largest non-profit space or-
ganization, provides a list of 28 private companies,
which are strongly related to space exploration and
commercialization. Among them there are such “blue
chips” as Boeing and Lockheed Martin, Viasat and
Northrop Grumman [6-11]. In the frame of our re-
search dynamics of share prices of these companies
have been investigated within the period between 2008
and 2014. According to the total rate of growth, all the
companies were divided into four groups (Table 1):
1) Extra fast: this group consists of those compa-
nies which more than doubled their share price;
2) Fast: this group consists of companies which
rate of growth is between 50% and 100%;
3) Stable: this group consists of companies with a
stable rate of growth which have increased their share
price no more than by 50%;
4) Negative: this group consists of companies
which share price has decreased.
Table 1
Classification of Space Companies according to the
Rate of Growth [6-11]
Rate of growth Number of companies
Extra fast (>100%) 8
Fast (>50%) 8
Stable (>0%) 9
Negative (<0%) 3
So, almost third of companies more than doubled
their share prices, while Loral Space and Communica-
tions multiplied it by 4 (from $18,37 per share in Au-
gust 2008 to $73,56 per share in August 2014). With-
out any denial, that is the direct consequence of NASA
insisting on satellite development programs in which
Loral has taken part [17]. Not only Loral, but also Boe-
ing and Northrop Grumman gained an advantage from
cooperating with NASA (88,38% and 99,03% of
growth respectively)[9, 46]. In addition, European
Aeronautic Defense and Space (EADS) has also in-
creased its share price by 285%. That is the evidence of
European Union involvement in the space commercial-
ization. There is also a possibility that later there will
be more European companies among the “blue chips”
of the industry.
Unfortunately, there were some companies which
activity led to share price decrease, for instance Trim-
ble Navigation, Iridium Communication, Comtech
Telecommunication (-4,28%, -6,22%, -20,49% respec-
tively). All of them operated in the same field with
Loral Space and Communication, but due to inability
A. V. Malyshko, D. Y. Parparov
99
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(38), 2014
to provide reliable and secure satellite-delivered ser-
vices they performed much worse than Loral did.
The research has also revealed that up to the mid-
dle of 2013 most of the companies had been regaining
position lost due to the world financial crisis. During
2008 and 2009 governmental expenditures on space
programs suffered a huge shortening and that immedi-
ately hurt traders` and investors` interest in “space
shares”. However, within the last year one can notice
an exponential share price growth in several compa-
nies. For example, price of the DISH Network share
equals to $64,92, while a year ago it cost only $44,8.
Such level of growth is noticed also in Direct TV (from
$60,29 to $86,98 per share).
Another part of our research concerns comparison
of the market price of shares with their intrinsic, or
fundamental, value. It allows us to judge, whether the
target market is overvalued or undervalued.
According to methodology of Warren Buffet [18],
intrinsic value of a share is calculated on the basis of
estimated yield in a long-run period, usually 5 or 10
years. However, there are some subjectively pre-
estimated values used in calculations, like an average
growth rate, which may lead to obtaining different
results of intrinsic value for the same company. It is
therefore recommended to admit a 5% deviation from
the estimated intrinsic value while comparing it with
the market share price of a target company.
To compare intrinsic value and market price Rela-
tive Graham Value formula (1) can be used [18].
= , (1)
where RGV - Relative Graham Value;
IV – Intrinsic Value;
MP – Market Price.
If RGV<1, it means that the explored share is
overvalued. RGV>1 points at undervalued company,
which has a space for improvement and whose share
price is likely to grow. To take a 5% confidence inter-
val into account, Intrinsic Value was multiplied by
0,95(lower interval limit) and 1,05(upper interval lim-
it). If the upper interval limit is smaller than the Market
Price, it means that RGV will definitely be lower than
1 and vice versa. But if the Market Price lies between
upper and lower interval limits, than we assume that
Market Price of the company share is approximately
equal to its Intrinsic Value. The results of RGV calcu-
lations for the 28 examined companies are presented
below (Table 2).
Table 2
Relative Graham Value of Space Companies
RGV <1
(1,05*IV < MP)
RGV≈1
(0,95*IV < MP < 1,05*IV)
RGV>1
(0,95*IV >MP)
Alliant Techsystems Inc*
The Boeing Co.*
L-3 Communications Holdings,
Inc.*
Lockheed Martin Corp.*
Northrop Grumman Corp.*
Honeywell International, Inc.*
Raytheon Co.**
ITT Exelis Inc.**
Garmin Ltd.**
Harris Corp.***
Loral Space & Communications
Inc.***
Orbital Sciences Corp.***
DISH Network Corp.***
Orbcomm Inc.***
Computer Sciences Corp.**
DigitalGlobe, Inc.**
Trimble Navigation Ltd.***
Iridium Communications Inc.***
Comtech Telecommunications
Corp.***
EchoStar Corp.***
ViaSat, Inc.***
Sirius XM Radio Inc.***
Eutelsat Communications S.A.***
* - Aerospace & Defense
** - IT Services and GPS Services
*** - Satellite Manufacturing and Communications
In accordance with the RGV value we should ad-
mit that more than half of the companies are overval-
ued, which implicitly means that there is a risk of bub-
ble appearing in the private space sector. It should also
be noticed that all the companies of Aerospace and
Defense sector are overvalued, so they should be inves-
tigated more thoroughly.
However, there is another possible cause for such
values. Companies of Aerospace and Defense sector
(Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, L-3
Communication etc.) are diversified companies, and
spacecraft construction is not the only activity for
them. Therefore, without a detailed research it is im-
A. V. Malyshko, D. Y. Parparov
100
Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(38), 2014
possible to define, which particular activity has led to
the gap between market price and intrinsic value.
Another symptom of bubble appearing is a large
number of companies which are becoming public in
order to raise funds in the shortest term [5, 238]. For
example, before the dotcom crisis annual number of
IPOs in the IT sphere multiplied by 7.3. In order to
check it, we can compose a timescale of all the IPOs of
the private space companies and find out if there is a
rush (Figure 2).
Fig. 2. Timescale of the Space companies IPO dates [19-20]
As it is seen, within the past 10 years only 4 com-
panies appeared on the market. There was a kind of
rush between the years 1994 and 2002, when 11 com-
panies launched an issue and became public, but it is
not likely to have an influence on what is happening
nowadays.
One of the factors which explain small number of
strong players on the market is high market entry
threshold. The task of funding an average space com-
pany can be managed only by the richest tycoons or by
the government. Both of them are present on the mar-
ket. For example, Elon Musk (138th position in the
Forbes rating) who is a CEO of SpaceX, says he in-
vested almost all his savings in establishing SpaceX.
As a representative of the government, NASA regu-
lates the activity of private space companies by the
means of state procurements. But for NASA help sev-
eral satellite manufacturing companies would not have
survived until nowadays.
To sum it up, we have to admit that the private
space sector bears the mark of being overvalued. Al-
most half of the investigated companies performed a
non-linear growth in share prices within the last year,
while there are no visible reasons for increase in their
fundamental value. However, number of companies on
the market is stable within the last 10 years and is not
likely to grow in the nearest future, so it is too early to
make judgments about the rush in the industry. In addi-
tion, there is a strong governmental regulator, like
NASA, who should prevent companies from mislead-
ing their shareholders and unconditional growth of
share price. There is also a merely subjective, but im-
portant factor: CEOs of several companies, like
SpaceX and BlueOrigin, also were CEOs of PayPal
and Amazon.com and have successfully survived the
dotcom crisis, so they have a relevant experience and
should not allow their companies to become too over-
valued. Without any denial, to find out more precisely,
if there is a risk of a bubble appearing, more detailed
investigation is required.
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Малишко А. В., Парпаров Д. Ю. В пошуках
фінансового пузиря в секторі приватної косміч-
ної індустрії
Ця стаття стосується фінансового аналізу сек-
тору приватної космічної індустрії. Мета цієї статті
полягає у визначенні наявності фінансового пузиря
в приватному секторі глобальної космічної індуст-
рії чи скасуванні можливості її існування. Розгля-
нуті різні підходи до тлумачення дефініції «фінан-
совий пузир». Залежно від цих дефініцій низка
критеріїв, що свідчать про формування пузиря,
була запропонована. Основна частина дослідження
базується на аналізі вартості акцій компаній, чия
діяльність пов’язана з освоєнням та комерціалізаці-
єю космічного простору. Застосована методологія
Уоррена Баффета для калькуляції внутрішньої вар-
тості цінних паперів для виявлення недооцінених
та переоцінених компаній у досліджуваному секто-
рі економіки. Окрім цього, проведено аналіз періо-
дичності утворення нових компаній на ринку аеро-
космічної індустрії.
Ключові слова: фінанси, приватна космічна ін-
дустрія, освоєння, комерціалізація.
Малышко А. В., Парпаров Д. Ю. В поисках
финансового пузыря в секторе частной косми-
ческой индустрии
Эта статья касается финансового анализа сек-
тора частной космической индустрии. Цель данной
статьи заключается в определении наличия финан-
сового пузыря в частном секторе мировой косми-
ческой индустрии. В статье рассмотрены различ-
ные подходы к определению понятия «финансовый
пузырь». В зависимости от этих дефиниций был
предложен ряд критериев, свидетельствующих о
формировании пузыря. Основная часть исследова-
ния базируется на анализе цены акций компаний,
чья деятельность связана с освоением и коммерци-
ализацией космического пространства. Применена
методология Уоррена Баффета для калькуляции
внутренней стоимости ценных бумаг для определе-
ния недооцененных и переоценённых компаний в
целевом секторе экономики. Кроме этого, проана-
лизирована частота появления новых компаний на
рынке аэрокосмической индустрии.
Ключевые слова: финансы, частная космиче-
ская индустрия, освоение, коммерциализация.
Malyshko A. V., Parparov D. Y. Searching for
Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector
This article is related to financial analysis of the
space sector of economy. The aim of this project is to
find out whether there is a bubble in the private seg-
ment of the global space economy or not. Different
approaches to the definition of the financial bubble are
overviewed. Depending on these definitions several
criteria were singled out as symptoms of the bubble
appearance. The main part of the research grounds on
the analysis of the dynamics of share prices of the
companies which activity is related to space explora-
tion and commercialization. Buffett`s approach to cal-
culation of the intrinsic value was used to define over-
or undervalued companies in the target sector. The
research also concerns the analysis of frequency of new
companies appearing on the market.
Keywords: finances, private space industry, mas-
tering, commercialization.
Received by the editors: 15.10.2014
and final form 23.12.2014
|
| id | nasplib_isofts_kiev_ua-123456789-87627 |
| institution | Digital Library of Periodicals of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| issn | 1817-3772 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-12-07T18:26:22Z |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publisher | Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | Malyshko, A.V. Parparov, D.Y. 2015-10-22T09:25:45Z 2015-10-22T09:25:45Z 2014 Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector / A.V. Malyshko, D.Y. Parparov // Економічний вісник Донбасу. — 2014. — № 4(38). — С. 97-101. — Бібліогр.: 20 назв. — англ. 1817-3772 https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/87627 336.76 : 629.78 This article is related to financial analysis of the space sector of economy. The aim of this project is to find out whether there is a bubble in the private segment of the global space economy or not. Different approaches to the definition of the financial bubble are overviewed. Depending on these definitions several criteria were singled out as symptoms of the bubble appearance. The main part of the research grounds on the analysis of the dynamics of share prices of the companies which activity is related to space exploration and commercialization. Buffett`s approach to calculation of the intrinsic value was used to define over- or undervalued companies in the target sector. The research also concerns the analysis of frequency of new companies appearing on the market. Ця стаття стосується фінансового аналізу сектору приватної космічної індустрії. Мета цієї статті полягає у визначенні наявності фінансового пузиря в приватному секторі глобальної космічної індустрії чи скасуванні можливості її існування. Розглянуті різні підходи до тлумачення дефініції «фінансовий пузир». Залежно від цих дефініцій низка критеріїв, що свідчать про формування пузиря, була запропонована. Основна частина дослідження базується на аналізі вартості акцій компаній, чия діяльність пов’язана з освоєнням та комерціалізацією космічного простору. Застосована методологія Уоррена Баффета для калькуляції внутрішньої вартості цінних паперів для виявлення недооціненихта переоцінених компаній у досліджуваному секторі економіки. Окрім цього, проведено аналіз періодичності утворення нових компаній на ринку аерокосмічної індустрії. Эта статья касается финансового анализа сектора частной космической индустрии. Цель данной статьи заключается в определении наличия финансового пузыря в частном секторе мировой космической индустрии. В статье рассмотрены различные подходы к определению понятия «финансовый пузырь». В зависимости от этих дефиниций был предложен ряд критериев, свидетельствующих о формировании пузыря. Основная часть исследования базируется на анализе цены акций компаний, чья деятельность связана с освоением и коммерциализацией космического пространства. Применена методология Уоррена Баффета для калькуляции внутренней стоимости ценных бумаг для определения недооцененных и переоценённых компаний в целевом секторе экономики. Кроме этого, проанализирована частота появления новых компаний на рынке аэрокосмической индустрии. en Інститут економіки промисловості НАН України Економічний вісник Донбасу Finance Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector В пошуках фінансового пузиря в секторі приватної космічної індустрії В поисках финансового пузыря в секторе частной космической индустрии Article published earlier |
| spellingShingle | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector Malyshko, A.V. Parparov, D.Y. Finance |
| title | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector |
| title_alt | В пошуках фінансового пузиря в секторі приватної космічної індустрії В поисках финансового пузыря в секторе частной космической индустрии |
| title_full | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector |
| title_fullStr | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector |
| title_full_unstemmed | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector |
| title_short | Searching for Financial Bubble in the Private Space Sector |
| title_sort | searching for financial bubble in the private space sector |
| topic | Finance |
| topic_facet | Finance |
| url | https://nasplib.isofts.kiev.ua/handle/123456789/87627 |
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