Інтелектуальні системи прогнозування демографічних змін та їх вплив на маркетингові стратегії в ІТ-індустрії

• Datum: 2024
• Hauptverfasser: Угрин, Д.І., Ушенко, Ю.О., Яцько, О.М., Довгунь, А.Я., Добровольський, Ю.Г.
• Format: Artikel
• Sprache: Ukrainian
• Veröffentlicht: Vinnytsia National Technical University 2024
• Schlagworte: інтелектуальна система; машинне навчання; нейронна мережа; ІТ-галузь; прогнозування демографічних змін; маркетингові стратегії
• Online Zugang: https://oeipt.vntu.edu.ua/index.php/oeipt/article/view/723
• Назва журналу: Optoelectronic Information-Power Technologies

The article is devoted to the development of an intelligent system for forecasting demographic changes, which is an important task in the modern world. Traditional analysis of demographic data faces difficulties such as limited access to up-to-date information and a significant amount of unstructured data. The system automates the processing of demographic indicators (fertility, mortality, migration) and their structuring for further analysis and forecasting. The authors have implemented ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models that allow forecasting population size based on trends and seasonality. Testing of the models for Ukraine, Brazil, and other countries showed that the accuracy of the forecasts depends on the socioeconomic characteristics of each country. ARIMA has proven to be highly accurate in forecasting for stable regions, while Exponential Smoothing adapts to changes in trends. This system provides analysts and governments with an important tool for making informed strategic decisions in the field of population policy, allowing them to take into account complex interrelationships and dynamic trends.