УДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ МОДЕЛІ КОМПʼЮТЕРНИХ ЕПІДЕМІЙ ШЛЯХОМ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ФУНКЦІОНАЛЬНОЇ СТІЙКОСТІ ІНФОРМАЦІЙНОЇ СИСТЕМИ
In conditions of constant computer attacks, many objects of information systems continue to work even after a partial loss of functional stability. To resist incidents, it is necessary to predict the dynamics of changes in the functional stability of information systems to improve counteraction reso...
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| Datum: | 2020 |
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine
2020
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online Zugang: | https://jais.net.ua/index.php/files/article/view/450 |
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| Назва журналу: | Problems of Control and Informatics |
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Problems of Control and Informatics| Zusammenfassung: | In conditions of constant computer attacks, many objects of information systems continue to work even after a partial loss of functional stability. To resist incidents, it is necessary to predict the dynamics of changes in the functional stability of information systems to improve counteraction resource planning. The purpose of the article is to improve existing models of computer epidemics by assessing the functional stability of the information system. The work improves the dynamic VNF model of a computer epidemic, which allows predicting the level of functional stability of the information system at various stages of the epidemic. Many models of computer epidemics were obtained by adapting models of biological epidemics to the characteristics of computer objects. The VNF model made it possible to improve models of biological epidemics by reverse adaptation of computer epidemic models to the characteristics of biological objects. The logic of mutual transformations between biological and computer models of epidemics is considered. The VNF model takes into account that, in addition to uninfected objects, then objects infected at different stages of infection and objects that have been cured but lost some of their functional stability can also contribute to functional stability. We investigated the dynamic dependence of the error in assessing functional stability on the coefficient of susceptibility to infection and the transmission coefficient of infection. The proposed model has been tested on examples of real epidemics of computer worms CodeRed CRv1, CRv2, SQL Slammer and the flu epidemic in Ukraine. The proposed approach has increased the accuracy of forecasting the functional stability of information systems in a computerized epidemic to 22 % and increased the accuracy of forecasting the functional stability of the labor force of a society in an epidemic of influenza to 16 %. |
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