МІНІМАКСНИЙ ПІДХІД ДО ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ МАГІТНИХ БУР (ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ DST-ІНДЕКСУ)
Solution of forecast problem of main parameter of magnetic storms, Dst index, with a use of autoregressive models and measurements of solar wind parameters is under consideration. Basic dynamic characteristics of the Dst index response on input variables changes are described on the basis of brief a...
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| Date: | 2011 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine
2011
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| Online Access: | https://jais.net.ua/index.php/files/article/view/562 |
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| Journal Title: | Problems of Control and Informatics |
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Problems of Control and Informatics| Summary: | Solution of forecast problem of main parameter of magnetic storms, Dst index, with a use of autoregressive models and measurements of solar wind parameters is under consideration. Basic dynamic characteristics of the Dst index response on input variables changes are described on the basis of brief analysis of physical processes following the magnetic storms. The principal possibility of Dst index forecast over the time longer than transport delay of solar wind propagation from the L1 point to magnetosphere is considered in detail. Minimax approach to identification of the model parameters is proposed and proved. An application of method is illustrated using real solar wind data. |
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