ПОРІВНЯЛЬНИЙ АНАЛІЗ РЕЗУЛЬТАТІВ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЕКСТРЕМАЛЬНИХ ПОПУЛЯЦІЙНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ ДЛЯ РИБ ТА КОМАХ

• Дата: 2025
• Автор: Perevaryukha, A.Yu.
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: English
• Опубліковано: V.M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of NAS of Ukraine 2025
• Теми: моделювання динаміки популяцій; гібридні моделі; відтворення осетрових Каспію; анчоус Перу; колапс тріски Канади; спалахи чисельності комах; біфуркації; темпи зростання; сценарії біологічних інвазій.
• Онлайн доступ: https://jais.net.ua/index.php/files/article/view/625
• Назва журналу: Problems of Control and Informatics

Situations of sharp short-term changes in population processes can not be calculated by traditional mathematical models – a system for balance equilibrium. Unstable and short time shifts can not be expressed in terms of asymptotic dynamics – closed limit sets of the trajectory, stable cycles or even chaotic attractors. In our studies, we perform computational modeling of practically important scenarios of outbreaks and dangerous invasions related to extreme and transient dynamics. Ecosystems, like organisms, can not last for long in such transitional regimes. Outbreaks of the number of harmful insects in the form of individual peaks but not oscillating regimes have a number of features of threshold development. Unexpectedly, the problem of analysis of outbreaks intersects with the problem of modeling depletion of stocks in the fishery of fish. Rapid degradation of populations in the collapse scenarios could not be predicted in time by the methods of calculating the catch quotas (shown on examples of cod of the North Atlantic and anchovy of Peru), because the rates of restoration of reserves were incorrectly estimated. A key aspect in the methodology for constructing hybrid models is the formalization of nonlinear reproduction efficiency, which varies in a threshold manner. In the article we prove the advantages of the method of purposeful realization of bifurcations in hybrid systems. We conducted a comparative analysis of new model scenarios for extreme situations with similar phases during the collapse of fish stocks and insect outbreaks of pests obtained by modifying functionals in the basic hybrid system. We identified five variants of qualitative behavior of hybrid systems that are important for modeling of biosystems.