МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ІНТЕГРАЛЬНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ В МОРСЬКИХ ЕКОСИСТЕМАХ

• Date: 2023
• Main Authors: Єремєєв, В. М., Васечкіна, Е. Ф., Ігумнова, О. М., Латун, В. С., Тімченко, І. Є., Ярін, В. Д.
• Format: Article
• Language: Ukrainian
• Published: Marine Ecological Journal 2023
• Subjects: об'єктно-орієнтована модель; стійкість екосистеми; асиміляція спостережень
• Online Access: https://mej.od.ua/index.php/mej/article/view/512
• Journal Title: Marine Ecological Journal

Different models of integrated (averaged to the certain space-time scales) processes in marine ecosystems are considered. The object-oriented model (OOM) of plankton association in shelf water is developed, complemented by a hydrochemical block, which describes the cycles of nitrogen and sulphur in aerobic and anaerobic terms. Hydrodynamics of the system is described by an integral two layers model taking into account influence of atmospheric changeability on development of integrated processes. OOM is used for the imitation of development of hypoxia in the period of the spring-summer warming up on shoal, and also oxygen production and consumption in the aerobic and anaerobic zones. The mathematical model of the system “phytoplankton-zooplankton-fish-fishing” is build. The reaction of such systems on periodic and impulsive influences on their stationary states is studied. On the example of ecosystem of the Northwestern shelf of the Black sea (SWS BS) the possible consequences of commercial catch of anchovy for evolution of the ecosystem to it stationary state are shown. The dynamic-stochastic model (DSM) of integrated processes in the SWS BS ecosystem is offered. Dynamic part of the model contains seven variables: concentration of phyto- and zooplankton (two species), larvae of fishes and fishes, nutrients and detritus. With its help the long-term (averaged over many years) scenarios of the concentrations’ variability in the sea were simulated, and deviations from these scenarios, observed for a concrete year. Cross correlations between the deviation processes are used for assimilation of simulated observations. Conclusion aboutperspective of integrated description of processes in marine ecosystems, based on the object-oriented and dynamicstochastic modeling, is made.