Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми
The paper aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all available sources (including herbarium vouchers, publications, and datasets) on the exact distribution of Aconitum moldavicum in the Ukrainian Carpathians to build the maps modeling the species distribution in this region and adjacent territ...
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M.M. Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the NAS of Ukraine
2020
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Plant Introduction| _version_ | 1860145073795104768 |
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| author | Novikov, A. Mitka, J. |
| author_facet | Novikov, A. Mitka, J. |
| author_sort | Novikov, A. |
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| datestamp_date | 2023-08-26T20:39:45Z |
| description | The paper aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all available sources (including herbarium vouchers, publications, and datasets) on the exact distribution of Aconitum moldavicum in the Ukrainian Carpathians to build the maps modeling the species distribution in this region and adjacent territories.
Aconitum moldavicum is a Pancarpathian subendemic distributed widely along the Carpathian Mountain range and scattered out to some of the adjacent lowland territories. Surprisingly, A. moldavicum was found to be quite rare for the Transcarpathian Lowland, where it is represented only by A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum. Just near the border with Slovakia, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum occurs in the Vygorlat Mts., while along with all other parts of the Vygorlat-Gutyn Carpathians it does not appear. However, both taxa, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum and A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum, quite frequently appear in the Ciscarpathia and Volhynia-Podilia Highland together with their hybrid A. moldavicum nothosubsp. confusum.
Aconitum moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii and nothosubsp. simonkaianum occur exclusively in the Marmarosh region of the Ukrainian Carpathians, and probably A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii can also be re-find in the Chornohora. Presence of A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum in the Volhynia-Podilia Highland seems to be doubtful because there are no other pieces of evidence despite the only voucher hosted at GJO herbarium. Moreover, other vouchers collected by B. Błocki from the same region were identified as belonging to A. moldavicum nothosubsp. hosteanum.
We used different algorithms of SDM (MaXent, BioClim, GARP, EnvDist, TIN, and IDW) to check the most sufficient and most closely representing a real distribution of A. moldavicum in the area studied. BioClim correctly pointed to the geographic centers of the species in the Carpathians, Volhynia-Podilia Highland, and in Polish Uplands. Traditionally applied algorithm MaxEnt underestimates the probability of occurrence of species in the area of confirmed presence and, at the same time, overestimates it in the area beyond the known extent of species occurrence. IDW algorithm showed similar results with MaxEnt and confirmed its potential suitability for SDM purposes. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.46341/PI2020001 |
| first_indexed | 2025-07-17T12:53:34Z |
| format | Article |
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© The Authors. This content is provided under CC BY 4.0 license.
Plant Introduction, 85/86, 50–64 (2020)
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in
Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent territories with special reference to
the algorithm used
A. Novikov 1, 2, J. Mitka 3
1 Department of Biosystematics and Evolution, State Museum of Natural History, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Teatralna
str. 18, 79008 Lviv, Ukraine
2 Department of Botany, Biology Faculty, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Hrushevskoho str. 4, 79004 Lviv, Ukraine;
novikoffav@gmail.com
3 Institute of Botany of Jagiellonian University, Botanical Garden, Jagiellonian University, Kopernika 27, 31-501 Kraków, Poland;
j.mitka@uj.edu.pl
Received: 20.01.2020 | Accepted: 25.03.2020 | Published: 30.06.2020
Abstract
The paper aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all available sources (including herbarium
vouchers, publications, and datasets) on the exact distribution of Aconitum moldavicum in the Ukrainian
Carpathians to build the maps modeling the species distribution in this region and adjacent territories.
Aconitum moldavicum is a Pancarpathian subendemic distributed widely along the Carpathian Mountain
range and scattered out to some of the adjacent lowland territories. Surprisingly, A. moldavicum was found
to be quite rare for the Transcarpathian Lowland, where it is represented only by A. moldavicum subsp.
hosteanum. Just near the border with Slovakia, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum occurs in the Vygorlat
Mts., while along with all other parts of the Vygorlat-Gutyn Carpathians it does not appear. However,
both taxa, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum and A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum, quite frequently appear
in the Ciscarpathia and Volhynia-Podilia Highland together with their hybrid A. moldavicum nothosubsp.
confusum.
Aconitum moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii and nothosubsp. simonkaianum occur exclusively in the Marmarosh
region of the Ukrainian Carpathians, and probably A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii can also be re-find in
the Chornohora. Presence of A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum in the Volhynia-Podilia Highland
seems to be doubtful because there are no other pieces of evidence despite the only voucher hosted at
GJO herbarium. Moreover, other vouchers collected by B. Błocki from the same region were identified as
belonging to A. moldavicum nothosubsp. hosteanum.
We used different algorithms of SDM (MaXent, BioClim, GARP, EnvDist, TIN, and IDW) to check the most
sufficient and most closely representing a real distribution of A. moldavicum in the area studied. BioClim
correctly pointed to the geographic centers of the species in the Carpathians, Volhynia-Podilia Highland, and
in Polish Uplands. Traditionally applied algorithm MaxEnt underestimates the probability of occurrence of
species in the area of confirmed presence and, at the same time, overestimates it in the area beyond the
known extent of species occurrence. IDW algorithm showed similar results with MaxEnt and confirmed its
potential suitability for SDM purposes.
Keywords: Aconitum moldavicum, Ranunculaceae, Carpathians, species distribution modeling
https://doi.org/10.46341/PI2020001
UDC 581.84
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0112-5070
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8472-1742
Plant Introduction • 85/86 51
Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians
Introduction
Aconitum moldavicum Hacq. is a
Pancarpathian subendemic (Novikoff &
Hurdu, 2015; Kliment et al., 2016) and
mountain species scattering out to adjacent
lowlands (Zapałowicz, 1908; Mitka & Kozioł,
2009; Misiak, 2016). A. moldavicum sometimes
is mentioned in red lists and assessments
with different threat categories (Kricsfalusy
& Budnikov, 2003; Kadlečík, 2014; Cwener
et al., 2016; Kozurak et al., 2017). However,
it is not listed in the recent edition of IUCN
Red List of Threatened Species due to the
general lack of data on its taxonomy and
chorology.
Aconitum moldavicum comprises five
subspecies – subsp. moldavicum, subsp.
hosteanum (Schur) Graebn. et P. Graebn.,
nothosubsp. simonkaianum (Gáyer)
Starmühl., nothosubsp. porcii Starmühl.,
and nothosubsp. confusum (Grinț.)
A. Novikov (Mitka, 2008; Novikov, 2017). The
closest taxa revealing similar morphology
and genetics are A. lasiostomum Besser
and A. lycoctonum L. (including A. vulparia
Spreng. and A. lasianthum (Rchb.) Simonk.)
that also occur in adjacent to Carpathian
Mts. regions (Utelli et al., 1999, 2000; Hong
et al., 2017). They additionally contribute to
the diversity of moldavicum group in the
Carpathian region by producing putative
hybrids (A. × triste (Rchb.) Gáyer and
A. × baumgartenianum Simonk.) associated
predominantly with Transilvania and South-
Eastern Carpathians.
All five subspecies of A. moldavicum
were already reported for the Ukrainian
Carpathians and adjacent Volhynia-Podillya
Highland (Novikoff & Mitka, 2011; Mitka,
2008). However, precise mapping, which is
crucial for accurate assessment of species
distribution and further identification of
threat category, was not performed before.
Spatial analysis with modern species
distribution modeling (SDM) algorithms,
which also can be useful for evaluation of
the general distribution of the species, was
not realized too. Hence, here we represent
our outcomes based on an analysis of
782 collection localities gathered from
field surveys, herbarium collections, and
published sources.
Material and methods
Spatial data was gathered from several
sources, including 563 entries from direct
analysis of herbarium vouchers, 130 entries
from trusted published sources (Klimuk et al.,
2006; Mitka, 2008), 75 entries from Karel
Domin’s Card Index hosted at the Institute
of Botany in Bratislava, 14 entries from GBIF
biodiversity database (GBIF, 2019), JACQ
virtual herbarium (JACQ, 2019) and NHM
DataPortal (Scott & Smith, 2014). Only those
entries that could be clearly identified as
belonging to A. moldavicum were accepted for
analysis. In case when there was a doubt or in
the case whether it was impossible to identify
subspecies clearly, such entries were accepted
on a specific level without designation of
infraspecific implication. For those entries that
had no designated coordinates, approximate
coordinates with annotated precision in
meters were generated based either on
the closest identified location or polygonal
centroid. The final dataset was processed
in QGIS 3.10.1 (QGIS Development Team,
2020). In QGIS, an additional mesoregional
layer (accordingly to Novikov & Hurdu (2017)
with recent updates) and the DEM (Digital
Elevation Model) layer were associated with
this dataset.
SDM was performed independently in
Maxent 3.4.1 (Philips et al., 2006; Philips
& Dudik, 2008), applying online facilities
of Lifemapper LmSDM (i.e., BiotaPhy web
client) (Williams et al., 2017), and in QGIS
3.10.1 environment. For modeling in Maxent
software, we used SRTM 90m DEM layer
downloaded from CGIAR-CSI (Jarvis et al.,
2008). Maxent software applies same-called
unique algorithm, which is considered
one of the most reliable for modeling of
distribution on poorly known areas and with
a small sample size (Hernandez et al., 2006,
2008). Maxent software requires precise
preparation of projection layers with the same
resolution and covering area, which can be
difficult for inexperienced users with basic
skills. For modeling in Lifemapper we used
‘Worldclim 1.4, Soil, SpatialDistance’ model and
applied BioClim, GARP, EnvDist and MaxEnt
(openModeller implementation) algorithms,
which are also usually applied for rich samples
(Stockwell & Peterson, 2002; Beaumont et al.,
2005; Passos & Rebello, 2016). SDM in QGIS
52 Plant Introduction • 85/86
A. Novikov, J. Mitka
was performed by TIN and IDW interpolation
based on a number of occurrences calculated
for each geomorphologic mesoregion. TIN
and IDW usually are not applied for niche
modeling, because they are not prediction
algorithms in a strict sense and work only with
continuous data. However, it was proved that
these powerful spatial interpolation methods
can be useful for modeling of species richness
(Tapia-Silva et al., 2015), and, as a result, can
also be applied for preliminary analysis of
a potential area of occupation by organisms
(Gomes et al., 2018).
Results and discussion
Spatial Distribution
Our investigations revealed that A. moldavicum
is scattered over Ukrainian Carpathians
unevenly – with a higher concentration in the
SE part, including Svydovets, Chornogora, and
Marmarosh massifs. (Figs. 1 & 2). The number
of registered occurrences of A. moldavicum in
subcarpathian regions (i.e., Transcarpathia and
Ciscarpathia) is much lower. However, another
local center of distribution of A. moldavicum is
located in the Opillia Highland, a mesoregion
of the Volhynia-Podilia Highland, situated on
NE from the Carpathian ridge. The presence
of a high number of occurrences in these
regions correlates with subspecific diversity.
In particular, the Marmarosh Mts. host all
five subspecies of A. moldavicum, while the
Chornohora Mts. and the Opillia Highland
represents four and three subspecies,
respectively.
Chornohora and Marmarosh are the
only regions with confirmed presence of
A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii. Most of
the occurrences of this subspecies lie within
Marmarosh mesoregion, and only one voucher
from 1926 is cited for Chornohora.
Another hybrid, A. moldavicum nothosubsp.
simonkaianum occurs only in the Marmarosh
Mts. (in those part that is usually mentioned
in publications as the Chyvchyny Mts.).
In Mitka (2008) there is mentioned voucher
Figure 1. The original distribution of Aconitum moldavicum within the Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent
regions basing on all available data (field surveys, herbarium vouchers, published observations and other
sources).
Plant Introduction • 85/86 53
Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians
of A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum
preserved in the herbarium GJO of
Universalmuseum Joanneum in Graz, Austria.
However, after analysis of other vouchers
collected by the same collector (B. Błocki)
from the same region and at the same period,
we could suggest that it likely belongs to
A. moldavicum nothosubsp. hosteanum that
is quite frequent in the Volhynia-Podilia
Highland.
One of the parental taxa of A. moldavicum
nothosubsp. simonkaianum is A. lasiostomum
(= A. rogowiczii Wissjul.), which mostly occurs
in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe regions of
Ukraine (Dobrochaeva et al., 1987; Tzvelev,
2001). However, one locality of A. lasiostomum
is cited from the Opillia Highland (between
villages Ivanivka and Podusilna, Lviv region)
and one more locality of A. rogowiczii from the
Holohory (Kremenets town, Ternopil region)
(Wissjulina, 1953). Hence, we cannot reject the
possibility of the presence of A. moldavicum
nothosubsp. simonkaianum in the Volhynia-
Podilia Highland, at least in the past.
Aconitum moldavicum nothosubsp.
confusum, resulting from hybridization
between subsp. moldavicum and subsp.
hosteanum, also shares the same distribution
with A. moldavicum nothosubsp. hosteanum,
including the Volhynia-Podilia Highland and the
Poland Uplands. Interesting that participation
of A. moldavicum nothosubsp. confusum in the
Opillia Highland and neighboring regions is
relatively high (about 25 %), while in separated
mesoregions of the Carpathian Mts. it does not
exceed 13 %. Hence its presence reveals that
either parental taxa still could be discovered
in this region or they were distributed there
before. In general, A. moldavicum subsp.
moldavicum and A. moldavicum subsp.
hosteanum remain to dominate both in the
Carpathians and adjacent lowlands.
Both hybrids, A. moldavicum nothosubsp.
simonkaianum and A. moldavicum nothosubsp.
porcii, demonstrate distribution pattern
slightly different from all other subspecies
of A. moldavicum. Most occurrences of
these two endemic taxa (Mitka, 2008) are
Figure 2. Proportional distribution of Aconitum moldavicum within the Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent
regions (the darkest color of mesoregion, the higher number of observations).
54 Plant Introduction • 85/86
A. Novikov, J. Mitka
concentrated in the Marmarosh Mts. region,
which is considered one of the local centers
of endemics’ distribution in the Ukrainian
Carpathians (Tasenkevich, 2014) within the
main Pokuttya-Marmarosh center of endemism
(Pawłowski, 1970).
The Svydovets, Chornogora, and Marmarosh
Mts. are among the highest regions of the
Ukrainian Carpathians and differ by the highest
diversity of flora (Chopyk, 1976; Malynovskiy,
1991; Tasenkevich, 2003). In particular,
Chornogora represents the highest diversity of
genus Aconitum in the Ukrainian Carpathians
(Novikoff et al., 2016). However, A. moldavicum
is not related to high altitudes so much. In the
Ukrainian Carpathians, it mostly occupies
localities from submontane to upper montane
belt (roughly 650–1400 m a.s.l.). Sometimes
it occurs in the subalpine belt (up to 1850
m a.s.l.), and only occasionally can be found in
the alpine belt. Therefore its correlation with
high-altitudinal mesoregions has rather an
inexplicable nature.
Surprisingly, A. moldavicum is quite rare
for the Transcarpathian Lowland and adjacent
regions of the Carpathian range. Here it seems
to be represented only by A. moldavicum subsp.
hosteanum. Just near the border with Slovakia,
A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum occurs in
the Vygorlat Mts., while along with all other
parts of the Vygorlat-Gutyn Carpathians it
does not appear.
Aconitum moldavicum prefers wet and
semi-shaded locations, especially often it is
distributed in the forests along the streams
that make natural corridors of its propagation
(Mitka, 2003; Novikoff et al., 2016). However,
it also can be found in relatively dry and
open places, where it differs by short and
compact shoot, lower number of flowers, and
slightly branched inflorescences. The plant
demonstrates the widest ecological amplitude
and very often can be found in semiruderal
and disturbed places along the roads, in
mountain villages, in forest fringes, etc.
However, local populations of A. moldavicum
are usually small and represented by few
clone plants that appeared in the result of
rhizome fragmentation. Seed propagation in
A. moldavicum has not been investigated yet,
but our preliminary conclusion is that it plays
a secondary role.
In the Ukrainian Carpathians A. moldavicum
can be often found in very different
habitats including vegetation communities
of lower elevations like Fagion sylvaticae,
Tilio-Carpinetum, Dentario glandulosae-
Fagetum, Alnetum incanae, Rubetum idaei
and Scirpo sylvatici-Caricetum brizoidis,
as well as communities of higher altitudes
like Chaerophylletum aromaticum, Stellario
nemorum-Alnetum glutinosae, Pulmonario-
Alnetum viridis, Juniperetum sibiricae,
Calthetum laetae, Arunco-Doronicetum
austriaci and Ranunculo platanifolii-
Adenostyletum alliariae (Mitka & Kozioł,
2009; Novikoff et al., 2016; Kobiv, 2018). Both
subspecies, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum
and A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum share
the same ecological and vegetation conditions
and even can be found in mixed populations
together with A. moldavicum nothosubsp.
confusum. However, the preferences of
A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum
and A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii require
clarification. Investigations on Aconitum
habitat preferences, including soil and
vegetation analysis, were carried out before
(Novikoff et al., 2016; Novikoff, 2016), but still
seek information from a more full area.
Species distribution modeling
Firstly we applied the single elevation
parameter for SDM in original Maxent
software to stress it as a critical factor for the
distribution of A. moldavicum. This was done to
eliminate side-effecting factors and to reveal
any potential influence of the elevation on the
distribution of this species. The elevation is
frequently reported as one of the key factors,
affecting the distribution of plant taxa, especial
endemic, in different mountain regions (Vetaas
& Grytnes, 2002; Wang et al., 2003; Singh
et al., 2007; Subedi et al., 2015), including
Carpathian Mountains (Tsaryk et al., 2003;
Piękoś-Mirkowa & Mirek, 2009; Kyyak et al.,
2016; Mráz et al., 2016). In particular, elevation
has confirmed influence on the origination of
genetic diversity and speciation in mountain
plants (Thiel-Egenter et al., 2009), including
Aconitum representatives (Hardin, 1964;
Sutkowska et al., 2013; Chapagain et al., 2019).
In our preliminary investigations, we have also
suggested that elevation may be the factor
determining the structure of the inflorescence
in A. variegatum L. (Novikoff, 2009). Similarly,
it was found that elevation in the context of
Plant Introduction • 85/86 55
Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians
climate changes influences on the phenology
of A. heterophyllum Wall. (Gaira et al., 2011).
Hence, here we tried to separate elevation
from other factors to analyze its influence
on the distribution patterns of A. moldavicum
independently. Later additional algorithms
(i.e., BioClim) covering other factors were also
applied within Lifemapper online service to
obtain more complete results.
We generated maps of the prospective
distribution of A. moldavicum basing on four
datasets: (A) all available occurrence data;
(B) data just about precise occurrence (only
from mountain regions); (C) combination
of precise localities from mountains
with estimated localities from lowlands;
(D) estimated localities from lowlands only
(Fig. 3 A–D). In a case of the full dataset, the
main distribution was concentrated in the
regions with the highest altitude. In contrast,
in the lowlands, the prognostic distribution
does not exceed 23 % (with relatively low
AUC = 0.797). Chornohora, Svydovets, and
Gorgany regions, at the same time, are among
the highest and very popular for floristic
surveys. Moreover, many coordinates were
obtained from approximate supposition and
could point to higher localities than they
are. To avoid artificial amplification of high-
mountain regions, we analyzed localities
with only precisely known coordinates and
elevation respectively. In this case, high-
mountain regions were still modeled as the
most appropriate for the distribution of
A. moldavicum, while lowlands were illuminated
from analysis and demonstrated prognostic
distribution below 8 %. AUC value in such a case
was 0.919, which confirms the high reliability of
obtained prediction (Jiménez-Valverde, 2012).
Finally, we combined an almost equal number
of localities with precise coordinates with
those with approximate coordinates, and still,
the highest regions remained to be the most
suitable. As a result of such a combination,
the lowland regions obtained up to 54 % of
prediction; however, the AUC value was the
lowest – 0.713. As a result of the analysis, the
dataset of exclusively approximate localities
from lowlands, mountains were totally omitted
but predicted distribution on lowlands did
not oversize 77 % with relatively low accuracy
(AUC = 0.766).
Relatively low accuracy of obtained
models in case of analysis of (C) and (D)
datasets together with high accuracy
obtained during analysis of dataset (B) (Fig. 3)
indicate that altitude is not a key factor for
the distribution of A. moldavicum in lowland
regions. Nevertheless, still, elevation seems
to be among essential factors affecting the
distribution of A. moldavicum in the mountain
region of the Ukrainian Carpathians.
In lowlands, the elevation changes not
so dramatically as in the mountains. In the
mountains, the elevation changes are much
frequent and therefore require more precise
identification of coordinates. The application
of data with approximately estimated
coordinates in the mountains could be
risky. However, our analysis showed almost
consistent results both for precise data and
the combination of precise and approximate
data. Hence we can assume that such mixed
datasets can be effectively applied for SDM.
From another side, data cleaning before
analysis is a necessary process that should
be conducted by specialists that are familiar
with ecological preferences of analyzed taxa
(Maldonado et al., 2015; Gomes et al., 2018).
Splitting of datasets on smaller portions
also can be useful for niche modeling of taxa
distribution in heterogeneous areas (Stockwell
& Peterson, 2002).
Lifemapper online tool provides an
excellent opportunity for modeling species
distribution, including the number of layers
and algorithms, as well as on-flight export
of data from GBIF. We applied four main
algorithms (Fig. 4) that showed utterly different
results. MaxEnt prediction was close to that
we obtained using original Maxent software
with strong attribution to high-mountain
regions of the Ukrainian Carpathians.
However, lowland regions of the Volhynia-
Podilia Highland obtained much higher
prediction (Fig. 4 A). On a large scale, MaxEnt
algorithm also showed a higher prediction of
the distribution of A. moldavicum along all the
Carpathian Mts. range and even extension of
its areal to the Apuseni in Romania, the Sudety
Mts. in the Czech Republic and the Austrian
Alps (Fig. 5 A). Outside the Carpathians,
such modeled distribution of A. moldavicum
has only theoretical value since it is the
Carpathian’s subendemic. BioClim algorithm,
in general, demonstrated quite a low level of
50 % prediction, evenly scattered along the
Ukrainian Carpathians and covered almost all
56 Plant Introduction • 85/86
A. Novikov, J. Mitka
Figure 3. Maxent prediction of Aconitum moldavicum distribution in the Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent
regions basing from elevation. Color scale indicates occurrence prediction. Graphs show AUC values for
each of the predictions (the higher AUC the highest reliability of the model obtained). Models are based on
all available distribution data (A); exclusively precise data obtained from direct observations in mountain
regions (B); the combination of precise localities from mountains with estimated localities from lowlands
(C); estimated localities from lowlands only (D).
A
B
C
D
Plant Introduction • 85/86 57
Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians
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58 Plant Introduction • 85/86
A. Novikov, J. Mitka
Figure 5. Lifemapper prediction of Aconitum moldavicum distribution within a wider range basing on
different algorithms applied: A – MaxEnt, B – BioClim, C – EnvDist. The darkest color indicates a higher
prediction on the site. Points indicate known locations within the Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent
regions.
Volhynia-Podilia Highland (Fig. 4 B). However,
on a large scale, BioClim predicted distribution
of A. moldavicum predominately in the Eastern
Carpathians with scattering in the Western
Carpathians, and slight distribution to the
South Carpathians (Fig. 5 B). These results the
closest correspond to the real distribution of
A. moldavicum, and especially interesting is
its prediction for the Polish Uplands, where is
one of the local lowland centers of the species
distribution (Szafer, 1930; Zając, 1996; Mitka,
2008; Mitka & Kozioł, 2009; Mitka et al., 2013).
A
B
C
Plant Introduction • 85/86 59
Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians
Another two algorithms of Lifemapper,
EnvDist, and GARP did not show any acceptable
results. EnvDist prediction covered almost all
terrestrial parts of Europe (Figs. 4 C & 5 C).
Sites predicted by EnvDist also sporadically
appeared in Northern America (from Alaska
Range through Rocky Mts. and to Appalachian
Mts.), North China Plain, Korea, Japan, and
Kamchatka. GARP did not generate any
prediction at all (Figs. 4 D).
Finally, for SDM we applied in-build
interpolation algorithms TIN and IDW
from QGIS 3 package (Fig. 6). Both TIN and
IDW are factor-unrelated algorithms and
predict distribution exclusively basing on a
calculation of distances from extant localities.
This makes them unacceptable for prediction
in cases with low data coverage but still can
be useful for preliminary estimation of the
distribution of species, especially those with
continuous ranges. Moreover, traditionally
applied algorithms like MaxEnt can
underestimate the probability of occurrence
of species in the area of confirmed presence
and, in the same time, overestimate it in the
area beyond the known extent of species
occurrence (Fitzpatrick et al., 2013; Gomes
et al., 2018). In our case, both methods (TIN
and IDW) showed the highest prediction of
A. moldavicum in the Chornohora Mts., with
slightly less concentration in surrounding
mesoregions – Marmarosh, Svydovets,
Gorgany and partly in Gryniava. IDW also
predicted extension of A. moldavicum areal
to the Romanian Carpathians, with the
highest concentration in the Maramures and
Rodna Mts. Both methods also confirmed
the presence of a semi-isolated center of
distribution of A. moldavicum in the Opillia
Highland. The general similarity of obtained
results from IDW and MaxEnt confirmed
the suitability of IDW application for SDM
purposes.
Conclusions
Taking into count all results, we can assume
that the occurrence of A. moldavicum is not
dependent on elevation in lowland regions.
However, within the Carpathian Mts., it
still plays an important role. Hence, further
precise investigations with detailed analysis
of other ecological data harvested directly
from populations are required. Nevertheless,
the distribution of A. moldavicum in the
Ukrainian Carpathians is mainly related to
such highest mesoregions as Chornohora,
Marmarosh, Svydovets, and Gorgany. While
in the Volhynia-Podilia Highland it is mostly
concentrated in the Opillia Highland; where
is, probably, located its local center of the
distribution.
Analyzing prediction models and known
distribution, we can also confirm that
A. moldavicum (including subsp. moldavicum,
subsp. hosteanum, and nothosubsp.
confusum) is a Pancarpathian subendemic.
A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum
is an Eastern-Carpathian (sub)endemic and
A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii is a South-
Eastern Carpathian – Apuseni endemic. Both,
A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum
and A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii have
extremely limited distribution in the Ukrainian
Carpathians (Marmarosh and probably
Chornohora Mts.) and require protection.
IDW algorithm demonstrated good results
of distribution analysis and prediction
together with MaxEnt and, therefore, can
be applied for in niche modeling. This is
concordant with recently published results
of Gomes et al. (2018). BioClim algorithm
resulted in slightly different outcomes that do
not allow to evaluate the level of prediction of
A. moldavicum among different mesoregions,
but the better delimited general range of
the species. Hence, we believe that any of
the mentioned algorithms cannot be applied
separately. Only a combination of different
SDM algorithms can result in appropriate
modeling.
Acknowledgements
This investigation resulted from long-term
work within several grants obtained by AN,
including a stipend of Scholarship of the
Queen Jadwiga Fund of the Jagiellonian
University (2009), Rufford’s small grant
16667-1 (2015-2016) and Rufford’s small grant
21313-2 (2017-2018), a grant of the National
Scholarship Program of the Slovak Republic
(2018), as well as the award of Lviv Researchers
System (2019). AN cordially thanks to all
supporting bodies and colleagues that helped
in the realization of this study.
60 Plant Introduction • 85/86
A. Novikov, J. Mitka
A
B
Figure 6. TIN (A) and IDW (B) interpolations applied for SDM purposes. Prediction of Aconitum moldavicum
distribution in the Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent regions based exclusively on known localities.
Plant Introduction • 85/86 61
Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians
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64 Plant Introduction • 85/86
A. Novikov, J. Mitka
Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в
Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані
алгоритми
А. Новіков 1, 2, Ю. Мітка 3
1 Відділ біосистематики та еволюції, Державний природознавчий музей НАН України, вул. Театральна,
18, Львів, 79008, Україна
2 Кафедра ботаніки Львівського національного університету імені Івана Франка, вул. Грушевського,
4, Львів, 79004, Україна; novikoffav@gmail.com
3 Інститут Ботаніки Ягеллонського університету, Ботанічний сад Ягеллонського університету, вул.
Коперника, 27, Краків, 31501, Польща; j.mitka@uj.edu.pl
Стаття має на меті представити всебічний аналіз всіх доступних даних (включаючи гербарні збори,
опубліковані відомості та бази даних) щодо поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах
з метою побудови карт, що моделюють поширення цього виду в регіоні та на прилеглих територіях.
Aconitum moldavicum – це карпатський субендемік, що широко розповсюджений по території усіх
Карпат і частково виходить за межі гірського масиву на прилеглі рівнинні території. Цікаво, що
A. moldavicum є доволі рідкісним для Закарпатської рівнини, де він спорадично представлений
виключно підвидом A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum. Цікаво також, що інший підвид, A. moldavicum
subsp. moldavicum, представлений на Вигорлат-Гутинському масиві виключно на Вигорлатських
горах поблизу кордону зі Словаччиною і більше ніде в межах масиву не трапляється. Водночас,
обидва підвиди доволі часто трапляються на Прикарпатті та Волино-Подільській височині разом з
їхнім гібридом A. moldavicum nothosubsp. confusum.
Інші два гібриди, A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii та nothosubsp. simonkaianum підтверджено в
Українських Карпатах виключно для регіону Мармароських гір. Ймовірно, A. moldavicum nothosubsp.
porcii може бути також віднайдений на Чорногорі. Водночас, присутність A. moldavicum nothosubsp.
simonkaianum на Волино-Поділлі є сумнівною, оскільки немає жодного іншого підтвердження
окрім єдиного зразка, що зберігається у гербарії GJO. Більше того, інші зразки зібрані Б. Блоцьким
з того самого регіону виявилися такими, що належать більш тривіальному підвиду A. moldavicum
nothosubsp. hosteanum.
Ми використали різні алгоритми SDM аналізу (MaXent, BioClim, GARP, EnvDist, TIN та IDW) з метою
виявити алгоритм, що найбільш точно відповідає реальному поширенню A. moldavicum на даній
території. BioClim доволі точно вказав на центри поширення виду в Карпатах, на Волино-Подільській
височині, а також Польській рівнині. В той час, як традиційно прийнятий алгоритм MaxEnt недооцінив
ймовірність поширення виду на територіях з підтвердженою присутністю і навпаки переоцінив – на
територіях, для яких вид невідомий. IDW алгоритм продемонстрував подібні до MaXent результати і
підтвердив можливість використання з метою моделювання поширення видів.
Ключові слова: Aconitum moldavicum, Ranunculaceae, Карпати, моделювання поширення видів
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| id | oai:ojs2.plantintroduction.org:article-1540 |
| institution | Plant Introduction |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-07-17T12:53:34Z |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | M.M. Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the NAS of Ukraine |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | wwwplantintroductionorg/44/9d9d157f939e6cc0f356fc502eb8ef44.pdf |
| spelling | oai:ojs2.plantintroduction.org:article-15402023-08-26T20:39:45Z Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent territories with special reference to the algorithm used Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми Novikov, A. Mitka, J. The paper aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of all available sources (including herbarium vouchers, publications, and datasets) on the exact distribution of Aconitum moldavicum in the Ukrainian Carpathians to build the maps modeling the species distribution in this region and adjacent territories. Aconitum moldavicum is a Pancarpathian subendemic distributed widely along the Carpathian Mountain range and scattered out to some of the adjacent lowland territories. Surprisingly, A. moldavicum was found to be quite rare for the Transcarpathian Lowland, where it is represented only by A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum. Just near the border with Slovakia, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum occurs in the Vygorlat Mts., while along with all other parts of the Vygorlat-Gutyn Carpathians it does not appear. However, both taxa, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum and A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum, quite frequently appear in the Ciscarpathia and Volhynia-Podilia Highland together with their hybrid A. moldavicum nothosubsp. confusum. Aconitum moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii and nothosubsp. simonkaianum occur exclusively in the Marmarosh region of the Ukrainian Carpathians, and probably A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii can also be re-find in the Chornohora. Presence of A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum in the Volhynia-Podilia Highland seems to be doubtful because there are no other pieces of evidence despite the only voucher hosted at GJO herbarium. Moreover, other vouchers collected by B. Błocki from the same region were identified as belonging to A. moldavicum nothosubsp. hosteanum. We used different algorithms of SDM (MaXent, BioClim, GARP, EnvDist, TIN, and IDW) to check the most sufficient and most closely representing a real distribution of A. moldavicum in the area studied. BioClim correctly pointed to the geographic centers of the species in the Carpathians, Volhynia-Podilia Highland, and in Polish Uplands. Traditionally applied algorithm MaxEnt underestimates the probability of occurrence of species in the area of confirmed presence and, at the same time, overestimates it in the area beyond the known extent of species occurrence. IDW algorithm showed similar results with MaxEnt and confirmed its potential suitability for SDM purposes. Стаття має на меті представити всебічний аналіз всіх доступних даних (включаючи гербарні збори, опубліковані відомості та бази даних) щодо поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах з метою побудови карт, що моделюють поширення цього виду в регіоні та на прилеглих територіях. Aconitum moldavicum – це карпатський субендемік, що широко розповсюджений по території усіх Карпат і частково виходить за межі гірського масиву на прилеглі рівнинні території. Цікаво, що A. moldavicum є доволі рідкісним для Закарпатської рівнини, де він спорадично представлений виключно підвидом A. moldavicum subsp. hosteanum. Цікаво також, що інший підвид, A. moldavicum subsp. moldavicum, представлений на Вигорлат-Гутинському масиві виключно на Вигорлатських горах поблизу кордону зі Словаччиною і більше ніде в межах масиву не трапляється. Водночас, обидва підвиди доволі часто трапляються на Прикарпатті та Волино-Подільській височині разом з їхнім гібридом A. moldavicum nothosubsp. confusum. Інші два гібриди, A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii та nothosubsp. simonkaianum підтверджено в Українських Карпатах виключно для регіону Мармароських гір. Ймовірно, A. moldavicum nothosubsp. porcii може бути також віднайдений на Чорногорі. Водночас, присутність A. moldavicum nothosubsp. simonkaianum на Волино-Поділлі є сумнівною, оскільки немає жодного іншого підтвердження окрім єдиного зразка, що зберігається у гербарії GJO. Більше того, інші зразки зібрані Б. Блоцьким з того самого регіону виявилися такими, що належать більш тривіальному підвиду A. moldavicum nothosubsp. hosteanum. Ми використали різні алгоритми SDM аналізу (MaXent, BioClim, GARP, EnvDist, TIN та IDW) з метою виявити алгоритм, що найбільш точно відповідає реальному поширенню A. moldavicum на даній території. BioClim доволі точно вказав на центри поширення виду в Карпатах, на Волино-Подільській височині, а також Польській рівнині. В той час, як традиційно прийнятий алгоритм MaxEnt недооцінив ймовірність поширення виду на територіях з підтвердженою присутністю і навпаки переоцінив – на територіях, для яких вид невідомий. IDW алгоритм продемонстрував подібні до MaXent результати і підтвердив можливість використання з метою моделювання поширення видів. M.M. Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the NAS of Ukraine 2020-06-30 Article Article application/pdf https://www.plantintroduction.org/index.php/pi/article/view/1540 10.46341/PI2020001 Plant Introduction; No 85/86 (2020); 50-64 Інтродукція Рослин; № 85/86 (2020); 50-64 2663-290X 1605-6574 10.46341/PI85-86 en https://www.plantintroduction.org/index.php/pi/article/view/1540/1486 Copyright (c) 2020 A. Novikov, J. Mitka http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | Novikov, A. Mitka, J. Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми |
| title | Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми |
| title_alt | Spatial analysis and distribution modeling of Aconitum moldavicum in Ukrainian Carpathians and adjacent territories with special reference to the algorithm used |
| title_full | Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми |
| title_fullStr | Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми |
| title_full_unstemmed | Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми |
| title_short | Просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення Aconitum moldavicum в Українських Карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми |
| title_sort | просторовий аналіз та моделювання поширення aconitum moldavicum в українських карпатах та на прилеглих територіях з наголосом на використані алгоритми |
| url | https://www.plantintroduction.org/index.php/pi/article/view/1540 |
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