ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ
Вступ. В умовах сучасних викликів, зокрема воєнного періоду, що спричинив порушення логістичнихланцюгів, зниження купівельної спроможності та значні зміни у поведінці споживачів, особливо актуальним є розвиток електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами. Цей канал збуту набуває важливого значення як зас...
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Science and Innovation| _version_ | 1868294490307952640 |
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| author | KYRYCHENKO, A. |
| author_facet | KYRYCHENKO, A. |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "A. KYRYCHENKO",
"institution": "National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine"
}
] |
| author_sort | KYRYCHENKO, A. |
| baseUrl_str | https://scinn-eng.org.ua/ojs/index.php/ni/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2026-06-17T11:30:41Z |
| description | Вступ. В умовах сучасних викликів, зокрема воєнного періоду, що спричинив порушення логістичнихланцюгів, зниження купівельної спроможності та значні зміни у поведінці споживачів, особливо актуальним є розвиток електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами. Цей канал збуту набуває важливого значення як засіб забезпечення продовольчої доступності та стійкості ринку, адже він дозволяє компенсувати обмеження традиційних роздрібних мереж і адаптуватися до нових реалій.Проблематика. Відсутність інтегрованих моделей прогнозування й управління ринком ускладнює прийняття стратегічних рішень і стримує масштабування сектору.Мета. Формулювання інноваційної моделі розвитку електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами в Україніз урахуванням технологічних, економічних і соціальних чинників.Матеріали й методи. Інформаційну базу дослідження становлять статистичні дані міжнародної платформи Statista (моніторинг за 2018—2024 рр. з використанням прогнозних оцінок на 2025—2029 рр.). Для комплексного аналізу обрано системний підхід, діалектичний і історичний підходи, методи теоретичногоузагальнення, економіко-математичне моделювання, сценарний аналіз. Така комбінація методів забезпечує поєднання якісного системного бачення й кількісної прогнозної аналітики, необхідних для обґрунтування практичних рекомендацій.Результати. Розроблена дескриптивна модель відображає ключові елементи системи та фактори, щовпливають на електронну торгівлю харчовими товарами в Україні, а економіко-математична модель дозволила кількісно оцінити динаміку електронної торгівлі ними, визначити ключові драйвери її зростання(довіру споживачів, інфраструктурну готовність і середні витрати) та обґрунтувати сценарії подальшогорозвитку ринку.Висновки. Запропоновані інноваційні моделі й аналітичні результати можуть бути використані дляформування державної політики, бізнес-стратегій і заходів підтримки, що сприятимуть підвищенню роліелектронної торгівлі у продовольчому секторі України, розвитку інфраструктури і цифровізації споживачів, а також забезпеченню стабільності та сталого зростання ринку. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.15407/scine22.03.117 |
| first_indexed | 2026-06-18T01:01:10Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3) 117
© Publisher PH “Akademperiodyka” of the NAS of Ukraine, 2026. Th is is an open access article
under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
https://doi.org/10.15407/scine22.03.117
KYRYCHENKO, A. V. (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5647-7698)
National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine,
11, Heroiv Oborony St., Kyiv, 03041, Ukraine,
+380 44 527 8570, +380 44 527 8660, organizing_chair@nubip.edu.ua
INNOVATIVE MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF E-COMMERCE IN FOODSTUFFS IN UKRAINE
Citat ion: Kyrychenko, A. V. (2026). Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Food-
stuff s in Ukraine. Sci. innov., 22(3), 117—136. https://doi.org/10.15407/scine22.03.117
Introduction. In the context of contemporary challenges — particularly the wartime period, which has
disrupted logistics chains, reduced purchasing power, and signifi cantly altered consumer behavior — the
development of e-commerce in food products has become increasingly important. Th is sales channel is
emerging as a critical mechanism for ensuring food accessibility and market resilience, as it compensates
for the limitations of traditional retail networks and facilitates adaptation to rapidly changing conditions.
Problem Statement. Th e lack of integrated models for forecasting and managing the market compli-
cates strategic decision-making and limits the scalability of the sector.
Purpose. To develop an innovative model for the advancement of e-commerce in food products in
Ukraine, given technological, economic, and social factors.
Materials and Methods. Th e empirical basis of the study comprises statistical data from the interna-
tional platform Statista, covering the period 2018—2024, with forecast estimates for 2025—2029. Th e
research methodology includes a comprehensive approach based on systems analysis, dialectical and
historical methods, theoretical generalization, economic-mathematical modeling, and scenario analysis.
Results. Th e proposed economic mathematical model has enabled a quantitative assessment of the
dynamics of e-commerce in food products in Ukraine, identifi ed key growth drivers (including con-
sumer trust, infrastructure readiness, and average consumer expenditure), and substantiated alterna-
tive scenarios for market development.
Conclusions. Th e proposed models and analytical fi ndings can be applied in the formulation of pub-
lic policy, the development of business strategies, and the design of support measures aimed at strengthe-
ning the role of e-commerce in Ukraine’s food sector.
Keywords: e-commerce, food sector of the economy, innovative approach, descriptive conceptual model,
development scenarios, consumer behavior, digital distribution channel, digital transformation, digital
marketing, sustainable development.
THE WORLD
OF INNOVATION
118 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
Under conditions of rapid digitalization of the eco-
nomy and the growing demand for online groce ry
purchases, the development of innovative app roa-
ches to food e-commerce in Ukraine is beco ming
increasingly important. This sector is emerging as
a critical instrument for ensuring food security,
accessibility, and product quality, while simulta-
neously requiring adaptation to new technologi-
cal, social, and economic challenges. The novelty
of this study lies in the development of integrated
conceptual and economic–mathematical models
that formalize the complex interrelationships
among key market parameters and enable fore-
casting of market development under conditions
of external shocks and internal transformations.
A review of the scholarly literature on e-commer-
ce in general [1—11], and in the agri-food sector
in particular [12—16], indicates that most studies
focus on isolated aspects, such as technological
innovation, logistics solutions, or consumer be-
havior. At the same time, insufficient attention is
given to comprehensive models that integrate both
quantitative and qualitative factors shaping mar-
ket development in Ukraine, taking into account its
specific economic and social conditions. This gap
underscores the need for innovative approaches
that combine systems analysis, quantitative fore-
casting, and sensitivity to the structural features
of the local market.
The analysis of the cited sources [1—16] makes
it possible to distinguish several theoretical strands
that define the contemporary research landscape
of food e-commerce:
Technological approach — emphasizing digital
platforms, recommendation algorithms, inven-
tory management systems, and integration with
ERP/WMS solutions. The literature suggests that
technological innovation acts as a catalyst for
efficiency; however, it does not, in isolation, re-
solve persistent challenges related to logistics
and consumer trust [7, 10, 15, 16].
Logistics approach — focusing on last-mile de-
livery, cold chain management, route optimiza-
tion, and multi-warehouse infrastructure. For
food products, logistics is a decisive factor due
to sensitivity to temperature conditions and shelf
life constraints [1, 2, 4, 12, 13].
Behavioral/marketing approach — examining
de terminants of consumer trust, willingness to
pay for delivery, and perceptions of online pro-
duct quality, as well as the role of digital mar-
keting in shaping habitual online grocery pur-
chasing behavior [3, 9, 14].
Institutional and economic approach — focu-
sing on the influence of the regulatory environ-
ment, tax incentives, food safety standards, and
the role of large marketplaces and institutions
in shaping the “rules of the game” [5, 11, 12].
Systemic (integrated) approach — combining
the aforementioned strands into a unified in-
ter ac tion model encompassing platforms, supp -
liers, logistics, consumers, and regulators. It is
at this level that issues of coordination, scala-
bility, and resilience are most effectively add-
ressed [4, 6, 8, 10].
Over the past five years, several hundred inter-
national publications indexed in Scopus and Web
of Science have addressed food e-commerce. Lea-
ding contributions originate from diverse regions,
with particularly strong representation from Asia
(notably Indonesia) [17] and Europe (e.g., France)
[18]. For instance, J. Guo et al. represent a Chinese
research group examining the impact of COVID-19
on online agricultural product sales [19], while
T. A. Monoarfa et al. provide an extensive biblio-
metric analysis of food e-commerce research in the
Indonesian context [17]. Some studies reflect inter-
national collaboration, such as the Canadian–
Ukrainian research by V. Galushko and A. Riabchyk
[20]. Overall, the body of scholarship includes con-
tributions from researchers based in China, East
and Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America.
Several key thematic directions can be identified
within this literature: consumer behavior stu dies;
big data analytics and pandemic-related effects;
econometric analyses; machine learning and op-
timization methods; as well as bibliometric and
review studies.
Consumer behavior research focuses on pre-
ferences and motivations underlying online food
119ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
purchases. These studies typically employ surveys
and in-depth interviews followed by thematic ana-
lysis. For example, O. Droulers and S. Lacoste-Badie
identify key determinants influencing product
choice, including a more limited selection of fresh
foods, a tendency to purchase familiar products,
and time-saving considerations [18]. Such quali-
tative research highlights shifts in dietary patterns
and consumer health associated with the increa-
sing use of online platform s.
Big data analytics and pandemic-related effects
are typically examined using large-scale represen-
tative surveys and statistical modeling. For examp-
le, V. Galushko and A. Riabchyk surveyed more
than 600 respondents in Canada in 2024 and ana-
lyzed the data using logistic regression. Their fin-
dings indicate that 72% of respondents changed
their habits due to COVID-19, while 63% intend
to maintain the new online purchasing mode [20].
Key determinants of the adoption of online groce-
ry purchasing include perceived health risks, pre-
existing consumption habits, demographic charac-
teristics, and technological capabilities. Similar
app roaches — panel data analysis and logistic mo-
deling — are widely employed in related studies.
Econometric research relies on transactional
da ta from e-commerce platforms and online sto res.
For instance, J. Guo et al. applied a difference-in-
differences (DiD) methodology to a dataset comp-
rising 164,002 Chinese online grocery stores. Their
results demonstrate a significant increase in on-
line sales following the onset of the pandemic,
particularly among smaller retailers and for es-
sential goods [19]. These findings highlight both
the resilience of supply chains and the critical role
of small-scale suppliers.
Machine learning and optimization methods
are increasingly used to analyze and optimize
e-com merce processes. For example, Yang et al.
emp loy deep neural networks and data mining tech-
niques to enhance marketing strategies in online
agricultural sales [21]. Such tools enable the mo-
deling of large-scale transaction data and consu-
mer behavior patterns, thereby improving demand
forecasting and personalization.
Bibliometric and review studies provide sys-
tematic syntheses of the field and map its intel-
lectual structure. Monoarfa et al. apply PRISMA
methodology and VOSviewer tools to conduct a
bibliometric analysis of the literature for the pe-
riod 2012—2022, identifying core themes such as
consumer segmentation, behavior, and purchase
intentions [17]. Altarturi et al. combine bibliomet-
ric and content analysis to examine innovation in
agri-food e-commerce, outlining key challenges and
influential directions, including logistics, stan dar-
dization, traceability, and the implementation of
Internet of Things (IoT) and blockchain techno-
logies [22]. In a similar vein, the meta-analysis by
O. Tyrväinen and H. Karjaluoto synthesizes findings
from 50 studies (covering more than 20,000 res-
pondents) on online foodstuff retail before and du-
ring the pandemic, identifying the principal de-
terminants of purchase intentions [23].
Although the number of studies specifically fo-
cused on Ukraine remains limited, international
findings are largely transferable. First, the domestic
food retail market — and e-commerce in particu-
lar — continues to expand despite the const raints
imposed by the ongoing wartime crisis [29]. This
suggests that Ukrainian consumers, similarly to
those in other countries, are actively adopting on-
line purchasing practices, implying comparable
trends: increasing preference for online channels
and growing demand for safe and convenient ser-
vi ces. Second, the focus on food products intro-
duces sector-specific considerations. For instance,
O. Drou lers and S. Lacoste-Badie show that online
consumers often perceive a “more limited selection
of fresh products” [18]. In the Ukrainian context,
this implies that retailers should incentivize online
sales of fresh produce (e.g., through flexible deli-
very conditions and enhanced quality communica-
tion). At the same time, the study by J. Guo et al.
demonstrates that small online retailers significant-
ly strengthened their role in food supply during the
crisis [19]. Given Ukraine’s substantial base of local
producers and farmers, there is strong potential to
expand their digital channels and support the de-
velopment of food markets in online formats.
120 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
From the perspective of consumer experience,
Ukrainian buyers are likely to share value orien-
tations identified in other countries, with conve-
nience, safety, and time efficiency acting as the
primary drivers of e-commerce adoption. Increa-
sing trust — consistent with the well-established
Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) — and re-
ducing perceived risk remain key priorities. For
example, mobile applications and digital payment
services (e.g., Monobank, Privat24) should prio-
ritize user-friendly interfaces and seamless tran-
saction processes. In addition, cultural specifici-
ties must be taken into account: Ukrainian con-
sumers tend to value product freshness and local
origin, implying that platforms should adapt their
assortment and service models accordingly.
Logistics constitutes another critical factor. As
demonstrated in prior research (including studies
employing Internet of Things and blockchain tech-
nologies) [22], delivery organization and product
traceability are essential for the effective func-
tioning of food e-commerce. Under wartime con-
ditions in Ukraine, these challenges are further
intensified; however, international experience —
particularly the success of micro-distribution net-
works and digital logistics solutions during cri-
ses — can inform the development of resilient
logistics models, such as decentralized hubs and
community-based bulk purchasing systems.
International research consistently indicates
that food e-commerce is a rapidly expanding field
characterized by a wide range of methodological
approaches, from qualitative interviews to advan-
ced machine learning techniques. These findings
should be carefully considered in Ukraine when
shaping both business strategies and public policy
support. In particular, emphasis should be placed
on convenience, the availability and diversity of
fresh products, and the safety and reliability of
online channels for consumers.
Thus, based on a synthesis of contemporary re-
search, several key theoretical conclusions regar-
ding the development of food e-commerce in Uk-
raine can be formulated. First, innovation in the
food e-commerce sector should be conceptuali-
zed as a systemic category in which technological
solutions become effective only in interaction with
logistics mechanisms and socio-organizational
Table 1. Systematization of Barriers Hindering the Effective Development of Food е-Commerce in Ukraine
Barrier Category Cause Description Consequences Recommended Measures
Delivery of pe-
rishable goods
Logistic High transportation costs; lack of
developed cold-chain systems
Limits on assortment and
delivery geography; risk
of quality loss
Investment in cold logis-
tics; public-private partner-
ships
Digital
infrastructure
Techno-
logical
Poor internet quality in regions;
difficulties integrating platforms
and warehouse systems
Reduced service speed;
li mited business scala bi-
lity
Development of broadband
internet; standardization of
IT solutions
Regulatory
restrictions
Regula-
tory
Complexity in complying with
sanitary standards; absence of
spe cialized legislation for online
food sales
Legal uncertainty; addi-
tional certification costs
Development of clear re gu-
lations for online food trade
High invest-
ment costs
Financial Significant expenses for building
logistics, IT solutions, and quali-
ty control systems
Lower market attracti-
veness for new entrants;
low initial profitability
Tax incentives; startup sup-
port; grant programs
Consumer
distrust
Consu-
mer
Habit of buying food offline; con-
cerns about quality and safety of
online food
Slows demand growth
and formation of a stable
market
Trust-building campaigns,
certification, return gua-
rantees
Source: prepared by the author.
121ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
mea sures. Second, the capacity of e-commerce to
ensure food accessibility and market stability un-
der crisis conditions (e.g., military disruptions and
supply chain breakdowns) largely depends on the
adaptability of the underlying model and the app-
lication of scenario analysis to evaluate alternati-
ve development trajectories. Third, the role of ins-
titutional coordination is critical, including the
establishment of regulatory standards, infrastruc-
ture development, and the promotion of efficient
cold chain systems — areas that remain insufficient-
ly addressed in many narrowly focu sed studies.
Overall, the integration of these components forms
a comprehensive, scientifically grounded approach
to the strategic development of food e-commerce.
Based on the identified theoretical approaches,
the principal barriers to the development of food
e-commerce have been systematized (Table 1).
The table provides a generalized overview of key
constraints across major categories, including lo-
gistics, technology, regulatory environment, fi-
nancial factors, and consumer-related aspects.
The research problem is focused on identifying
the key drivers of digital transformation in the
food e-commerce segment and assessing the im-
pact of innovative technologies and logistics solu-
tions on market efficiency. The distinctiveness of
the approach lies in combining a descriptive mo-
del, which systematically captures the structure
and stages of market development, with a quanti-
tative economic–mathematical model that enab les
measurement and scenario-based analysis. This
integrated framework makes it possible not only
to explain the nature of digital transformation but
also to develop practical recommendations for
businesses and regulators.
The aim of the study is to develop an innovati ve
model for the development of food e-commerce
in Ukraine that accounts for a comprehensive set
of influencing factors, including technological inf-
rastructure, consumer trust, logistics costs, and
broader socio-economic conditions. The applica-
tion of this novel approach allows for effective fore-
casting of market dynamics, identification of po-
tential risks and opportunities, and the formula-
tion of strategic development scenarios aligned with
the challenges and prospects of the digital economy.
In conditions of instability driven by both inter-
nal and external factors, the study of innovative
me chanisms and models for food e-commerce
development is of particular importance for ensu-
ring the resilience of Ukraine’s food market. The
implementation of the proposed models is expec-
ted to enhance sectoral competitiveness, improve
service quality, and facilitate the integration of
the Ukrainian market into global digital trends.
E-commerce today represents one of the key dri-
vers of transformation in the global economy, pro-
viding rapid and convenient access to goods and
services through digital platforms. It plays a signi-
ficant role in increasing the efficiency of mar ket
processes, reducing transaction costs, and expan-
ding the geographic reach of firms of various sizes
[24]. In the context of the food industry, e-com-
merce is especially important, as it enables adapta-
tion to evolving consumer behavior, supports the
timely delivery of perishable goods, and enhances
service quality. The growing popularity of online
purchasing stimulates the development of innova-
tive logistics solutions and accelerates the digitaliza-
tion of traditional supply chains, thereby strengthe-
ning food security and overall economic stability.
First, it is advisable to analyze macro-structural
changes in the distribution of sales channels for
food products globally and in Ukraine, with parti-
cular attention to the balance between online and
offline retail. This indicator makes it possible to
assess the level of e-commerce penetration in the
food sector and to trace broader trends in the di-
gitalization of consumer demand (Fig. 1).
The analysis of the dynamics of online and off-
line food retail shares globally and in Ukraine for
the period 2018—2029 indicates a steady expan-
sion of the global e-commerce segment, increasing
from 2.8% in 2018 to a projected 9.9% in 2029,
reflecting the ongoing digital transformation of con-
sumer practices [26, 28]. In contrast, Ukraine —
despite positive growth trends up to 2021 — ex pe-
rienced a significant decline in the share of online
food sales in 2022, falling to 0.3%. This contrac-
122 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
tion was driven by severe security and logistics
disruptions associated with the full-scale war.
Subsequently, a gradual recovery of e-commerce
activity is observed, with projected stabilization at
approximately 1.6% during 2026—2029 [26]. This
trajectory contrasts with global trends and points
to a structural lag in Ukraine’s digital food distribu-
tion sector, highlighting the need for targeted po-
licy measures and business strategies to support
e-commerce development. Nevertheless, despite
relatively low baseline levels, the Ukrainian market
demonstrates substantial potential for digital ex-
pansion, particularly in the post-crisis period [29].
Figure 2 presents the comparative dynamics of
food e-commerce in Ukraine for 2018—2029 against
several leading product categories. In 2021, onli ne
food sales reached USD 753.9 million; however,
in 2022, the market experienced a sharp decline
of 82.5% due to military disruptions and logistics
instability. Beginning in 2023, the market shows a
steady recovery trajectory, with projections indi-
cating growth to USD 1.53 billion by 2029 —
more than double the pre-crisis level [30].
The data also reveal an increasing share of the
food category within total e-commerce turnover,
suggesting ongoing adaptation of business mo-
dels to evolving consumer demand and the prog-
ressive development of delivery infrastructure.
Compared to categories such as electronics, appa-
rel, and cosmetics, food products demonstrate the
highest recovery rates in the post-crisis period.
To gain a deeper understanding of the internal
structure of growth in Ukraine’s food e-commer-
ce market, it is useful to analyze the dynamics of
its key indicators — total sales, average consumer
expenditure, number of users, and compound an-
nual growth rates (CAGR). Comparing these met-
rics with global trends allows for a more precise
assessment of the national market’s position in the
global context and helps identify directions for its
further development.
The growth of the food e-commerce market
represents a central trend in the global digital trans-
formation of consumer behavior. Studying this pro-
cess is particularly relevant in regions with high
growth potential, such as Ukraine. Applying the
CAGR metric enables the identification of consis-
tent trends across the main components of the
market: total sales, average expenditure per con-
sumer, and user base (Table 2).
Between 2018 and 2021, Ukraine experienced
rapid growth in food e-commerce, with market
Fig. 1. Share of global and Ukrainian online and offline food retail, %. Data for 2025—2029 are forecast data
Source: calculated and compiled by the author based on [25—28].
2.8 3.5
5.0
6.6 6.5 6.6 7.5 8.6 9.2
9.7 9.9 9.9
97.2 96.5 95.0 93.5 93.5 93.5 92.5 91.4 90.8 90.3 90.1 90.1
0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
99.4 99.3 99.1 98.7 99.7 99.4 98.8 98.5 98.4 98.4 98.4 98.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Sh
ar
e
of
tr
ad
e
in
fo
od
st
uff
s,
%
Year
Share of the world online trad Share of the world offline trad
Share of Ukraine’s online trade Share of Ukraine’s offline trade
123ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
size increasing from USD 266.54 million in 2018
to USD 753.89 million in 2021, representing a
183% increase. However, in 2022, the market cont-
racted sharply to USD 131.79 million (−82.52%)
due to the onset of the full-scale war and the asso-
ciated economic crisis. Subsequently, the market
demonstrated a strong recovery: growth reached
162.18% in 2023 and 103.61% in 2024, reflecting
the high adaptability and resilience of e-commer-
ce under transformational conditions. Accor ding
to Statista forecasts, growth rates are projec ted to
gradually decline during 2025—2029, reaching
7.26% by 2029, which is characteristic of market
stabilization and saturation phases [26]. The com-
pound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Ukraine’s
market size is 17.56% for 2018—2024 and 11.96%
for 2025—2029.
Globally, the food e-commerce market exhibits
more stable growth, rising from USD 179.68 bil-
lion in 2018 to USD 1,226.40 billion in 2029. The
highest growth rates occurred in 2020—2021 (up
to 50.09%), followed by a gradual slowdown [28].
The CAGR for global market size is 24.84% for
2018—2024 and 10.09% for 2025—2029.
Ukraine’s market is characterized by high vola-
tility in annual growth rates, reflecting sensitivity
to external shocks (e.g., 2022) and phases of rapid
post-crisis recovery. In contrast, the global mar-
ket shows smoother, more predictable growth
patterns typical of mature markets. The projected
reduction in volatility in Ukraine suggests a tran-
sition toward a stage of stable development.
Average revenue per consumer in Ukraine in-
creased from USD 86.49 in 2018 to USD 135.90
in 2024 (CAGR 7.82%) and is forecast to reach
USD 254.20 by 2029 (CAGR 9.72% for 2025—2029).
The 2022 drop to USD 29.84 (−82.78%) reflects a
sharp decline in purchasing power and overall on-
line consumption. Subsequently, recovery is under-
way [26]. Globally, the average revenue per consu-
mer rose from USD 243.00 in 2018 to USD 401.90
in 2024 (CAGR 8.75%) and is projected to reach
USD 506.30 by 2029 (CAGR 3.01%) [28]. Com-
pared to Ukraine, the global dynamics are less
Fig. 2. Dynamics of online sales by consumer product categories in Ukraine, 2018—2029, USD million. Data for
2025—2029 are forecast data
Source: calculated and compiled by the author based on [30].
266.50 341.70 519.60 753.90 131.80 345.50 703.60 975.30 1151.0 1301.0 1429.0 1533.0
395.20
465.80
623.40
743.90
132.80
248.30
1081.0 1216.0
1340.0
1430.0
1512.0
345.15
405.83
566.77
728.03
249.58
463.25
713.58
791.30
856.86
910.04
955.59
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Sa
le
s,
U
SD
m
ill
io
n
Year
Foodstuffs Cosmetics Electronics
Clothing and accessories All other goods
124 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
volatile, indicating more stable and sustainable
consumption patterns.
The number of online food consumers in Uk rai-
ne increased from 3.08 million in 2018 to 5.18 mil-
lion in 2024 (CAGR 17.56%) and is projected to
reach 6.03 million by 2029 (CAGR 2.05%). While
absolute figures remain relatively modest, the in-
tensity of growth in the initial period indicates
the rapid formation of a digital consumer base.
Globally, the number of online food consumers
rose from 739.42 million in 2018 to 1,692.16 mil-
lion in 2024 (CAGR 14.80%) and is expected to
reach 2,422.28 million by 2029 (CAGR 6.87%)
[26], reflecting the sustained global expansion of
digital sales channels in the food retail sector.
Within the study of digital consumption trans-
formation, it is important to analyze not only the
total number of e-commerce consumers but also
their distribution across food and non-food seg-
ments. In 2024, the share of online food consumers
in Ukraine accounted for 63.4% of all online shop-
pers [26], demonstrating the growing significance
of the food segment within the broader e-commer-
ce landscape. For comparison, this share was 68%
globally in 2024, albeit with substantially higher
absolute numbers (1.7 billion users) [28]. A notab-
Table 2. Food е-Commerce Market Size, Average Revenue per Consumer,
and User Base: Ukraine and the World, 2018—2029
Index
Year
2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2029
Ukraine
Electronic Trade in Foodstuff s, USD mln 266.54 519.56 131.79 703.55 975.23 1532.65
Growth Rate, % — 52.03 –82.52 103.61 38.62 7.26
Average Revenue per Consumer from Online Food
Trade, USD
86.49 123.80 29.84 135.90 175.40 254.20
Growth Rate, % — 31.95 –82.78 90.39 29.07 6.36
Number of Consumers, mln 3.08 4.20 4.42 5.18 5.56 6.03
Ukraine’s Share of Global Market 0.15 0.15 0.03 0.10 0.12 0.12
Narket CAGR, % 17.56 11.96
CAGR of Average Revenue per Consumer, % 7.82 9.72
CAGR of Number of Consumers, % 9.05 2.05
World
Electronic Trade in Foodstuff s, USD mln 179.68 342.48 509.76 680.08 834.99 1226.40
Growth Rate, % — 50.09 5.95 22.88 22.78 5.66
Average Revenue per Consumer from Online Food
Trade, USD
243.00 329.20 369.00 401.90 449.70 506.30
Growth Rate, % — 27.50 –7.38 12.45 11.89 0.42
Number of Consumers, mln 739.42 1040.34 1381.46 1692.16 1856.77 2422.28
Ukraine’s Share of Global Market 179.68 342.48 509.76 680.08 834.99 1226.40
Narket CAGR, % 24.84 10.09 24.84 10.09 24.84 10.09
CAGR of Average Revenue per Consumer, % 8.75 3.01 8.75 3.01 8.75 3.01
CAGR of Number of Consumers, % 14.80 6.87 14.80 6.87 14.80 6.87
Notes: Data for 2025—2029 are forecast data.
Source: calculated by the author based on [26, 28].
125ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
le feature of the Ukrainian market is the high con-
centration of demand within specific categories.
Analysis of user dynamics in Ukrainian food
e-commerce by product category from 2018—2029
highlights key development directions. The clear
leader in user numbers is the pet food segment,
which grew from 2.1 million in 2018 to a projec ted
4.0 million in 2029, reflecting consistently high
consumer engagement in a category with regular
demand. The second-largest category is bread and
cereals, rising from 1.4 million to 2.8 million users,
confirming stable interest in basic food staples via
digital channels. The third most popular segment
is sauces and spices, increasing from 1.0 million to
2.0 million users, illustrating a trend toward ex pan-
ding assortments and personalized taste pre fe ren-
ces. Other categories remain less widely adopted,
indicating opportunities for more active integra-
tion into e-commerce [26].
Overall, the trend reflects a gradual shift in con-
sumer behavior toward regular online purchasing,
even for products traditionally considered “offline.”
A strategic recommendation is the continued adap-
tation of digital channels to the characteristics of
each product category, taking into account logistics
requirements and consumer expectations (Fig. 3).
Ukraine’s share of the global food e-commerce
market remained stable at 0.15—0.16% between
2018 and 2021 but fell sharply to 0.03% in 2022,
reflecting the direct impact of the national crisis.
By 2024, the share recovered to 0.10%, with pro-
jections indicating stabilization at around 0.12%
through 2029 [26]. This trend demonstrates the
gradual recovery of Ukraine’s competitive position
in the global market.
Analysis of profitability rates and e-commerce
penetration levels from 2018 to 2029 indicates a
progressive strengthening of e-commerce both in
Ukraine and globally (Table 3).
In Ukraine’s online food retail sector, profita-
bility has shown steady growth, rising from 3.9%
in 2018 to a projected 6.0% in 2029 [26], surpas-
sing the average profitability of e-commerce ove-
rall (4.9% in 2029) [30]. This trend suggests imp-
rovements in business model efficiency, reductions
in operational costs, and growing consumer trust
in digital food supply channels. Globally, the food
e-commerce segment exhibits even faster profita-
bility growth — from 5.7% in 2018 to 13.5% in 2029
[28] — nearly double that of overall food retail
(9.0%) [30]. This underscores the global trend to-
ward the commercialization of online food deli-
1.00 1.20
1.40 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70
1.80 1.90 1.90 1.90 2.00
2.10
2.40
2.80 2.90 3.00 3.20
3.40 3.70 3.80 3.90 3.90 4.00
1.40
1.70 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.30 2.40 2.60 2.70 2.70 2.80 2.80
3.1
3.6
4.2 4.4 4.4
4.8
5.2
5.6 5.7
5.9 6.0 6.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
M
ln
p
eo
pl
e
Year
Sauces and spices Pet food
Bread and grocery staples Total
Fig. 3. Dynamics of online food e-commerce users in Ukraine by the three leading categories, 2018—2029, million users.
Data for 2025—2029 are forecast data
Source: calculated and compiled by the author based on [26].
126 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
very, where economies of scale, logistics automa-
tion, and the development of fulfillment infra-
structure contribute to higher margins.
At the same time, e-commerce penetration con-
tinues to rise. In Ukraine, the share of consumers
shopping online increased from 21.2% in 2018 to
26.0% in 2029 [30]. For food e-commerce specifi-
cally, penetration rose from 11.1% in 2018 to 16.0%
in 2029 [26], indicating slower but steady growth.
In contrast, the global market shows more dyna-
mic expansion: overall e-commerce penetration
reaches 49.1% in 2029 [30], while the food segment
achieves 33.1% [28]. This gap between Ukraine and
global digitalization levels highlights both the po-
tential for domestic market scaling and the need
for investment in infrastructure, platforms, and
digital literacy. The food segment appears parti-
cularly promising, demonstrating not only faster
profitability growth but also the formation of a stab-
le consumer base.
The analysis confirms that Ukraine’s share of on-
line food retail remains lower than global trends,
due to several factors: underdeveloped infrastruc-
ture, limited trust in e-commerce, gaps in delivery
coverage, lower digital literacy among older genera-
tions, cultural preferences (such as shopping at lo-
cal markets), and the impact of war and instability.
In prior research [29], the author developed and
tested a classification system for food product ca-
tegories designed to simplify consumer perception
and align with the layout logic of most retail sto-
res. This classification was successfully applied to
analyze global and Ukrainian food retail trends
from 2018 to 2029. It was found that grouping pro-
ducts into generalized categories enables more ef-
fective tracking of consumer trends, demand shifts,
and external market influences. In the present stu-
dy, this classification has been adapted for analy-
zing online food retail to ensure comparability,
highlight similarities and differences between on-
line and offline sales structures, and provide dee per
insights into consumer behavior transformation
under digitalization (Fig. 4).
An analysis of the dynamics of online foodstuff
retail in Ukraine from 2018 to 2029 indicates a gra-
dual expansion of this segment and its increasing
significance within the overall consumer market.
Fruits and vegetables remain one of the leading
categories in traditional retail: offline sales reached
USD 12.83 billion in 2021, with projected growth to
USD 21.33 billion by 2029 (+66%) [25]. The share of
this category in online sales is growing at a faster
pace: over 2023—2029, the cumulative growth of
online sales of fruits and vegetables is expected to
exceed 122% [26]. This trend is driven by the expan-
sion of delivery services, automation of order pro-
cessing, and growing consumer trust in the quality
of perishable products through online channels.
Meat and fish hold the second position in tra-
ditional retail, consistently accounting for over 25%
Table 3. Profitability and е-Commerce Penetration
Rates, Overall and for the Food Segment,
in Ukraine and Globally, 2018—2029 (%)
Index
Year
2018 2020 2022 2024 2025 2029
Ukraine
Profi t margin (% of
market revenue)
Overall e-commerce
3.1 2.6 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.9
E-commerce in
foodstuff s
3.9 3.3 4.1 5.2 5.2 6.0
Penetration rate (%)
Overall e-commerce
21.2 20.7 20.8 22.1 22.9 26.0
E-commerce in
foodstuff s
11.1 12.7 13.0 13.9 14.6 16.0
World
Profi t margin (% of
market revenue)
Overall e-commerce
5.7 5.0 6.5 7.2 7.4 9.0
E-commerce in
foodstuff s
5.7 5.3 7.6 9.7 10.3 13.5
Penetration rate (%)
Overall e-commerce
32.2 35.7 39.3 40.6 42.4 49.1
E-commerce in
food stuff s
19.3 22.6 25.8 27.0 28.4 33.1
Notes: Data for 2025—2029 are forecast data.
Source: compiled by the author based on [26, 28, 30].
127ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
of total turnover. Projected growth for 2023—2029
is 84% [25]. In the e-commerce segment, this
cate gory is rapidly recovering following the sharp
decline in 2022 due to disruptions in the cold
chain; growth resumes from 2023 onwards thanks
to the integration of refrigerated containers and
expanded partner delivery networks [26].
Dairy products and eggs traditionally repre-
sent a significant share of offline sales but show mo-
re moderate growth in the online sector. Offline
sales are expected to increase from USD 7.16 billion
in 2022 to USD 15.00 billion in 2029 (+109.5%)
[25], whereas online sales are constrained by the
need for additional infrastructure solutions (cold
chain management, expiry date control, return gua-
rantees), which slows the pace of digital adoption.
Grocery staples (grains, oils, sauces, spices) de-
monstrate the greatest potential for scaling in on-
line retail due to their long shelf life and low logis-
tical risks. While their share in e-commerce was
small in 2022, stable growth is expected in 2024—
2025, with projected annual increases exceeding
10% [26]. In traditional retail, this category is also
growing moderately, from USD 7.28 billion in
2022 to USD 14.87 billion in 2029 (+104%) [25].
Ready-to-eat products are experiencing stable
demand in both offline and online retail formats,
driven by urbanization and faster-paced lifestyles.
In e-commerce, this category is actively expand-
ing due to the growth of meal kits with recipes,
lunch deliveries, and culinary services. In tradi-
tional retail, sales are projected to rise from USD
6.73 billion in 2022 to USD 13.10 billion in 2029,
representing an increase of +94.7% [25].
Specialized products (e.g., baby food, pet food),
while representing a smaller share of the overall
market, show the highest rates of digital adop-
tion. Their online segment grows faster than the
general market due to frequent consumption pat-
terns and the convenience of automatic repeat
orders. In offline channels, growth is more mo de-
rate, projected at +47.5% for 2023—2029 [25].
Overall, e-commerce in the Ukrainian grocery
sector is forecasted to reach USD 1.53 billion by
2029, while the total retail market is expected to
reach USD 94.88 billion. The share of online sales
45.76 59.01 89.13 128.04 61.96 123.72 171.98 203.24 230.00 252.50 270.4053.35 71.26 111.96
164.97
75.79
159.91
225.85
268.78
305.38 336.09 360.66
24.31 32.13 47.99
68.81
32...
67.02
94.21
111.80
127.00 139.70
149.90
35.44
45.56 76.41
117.82
55.05
110.55
149.68
176.67
200.28
220.67
237.57
58.74
76.40
122.88
181.78
84.11
170.01
236.59
279.26
315.59
345.96
370.20
48.94
57.39
71.19
92.47
36.38
72.34
96.92
110.80
122.90
133.98
143.92
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Sa
le
s v
ol
um
e,
m
ill
io
n
U
SD
Year
Fruits and vegetables Meat and fish
Dairy products and eggs
Grocery staples Finished (ready-to-eat) products
Specialized goods
Fig. 4. Dynamics of online foodstuff retail in Ukraine, million USD. Data for 2025—2029 are forecasted data
Source: calculated and plotted by the author based on [26].
128 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
varies across product groups, ranging from 1—2%
in perishable categories to 5—7% in staples and spe-
cialized products. This trend reflects the emergence
of new consumer behavior that combines tradition-
al choices with the convenience of digital channels.
The development of online foodstuff retail in
Ukraine requires a comprehensive approach that
considers market characteristics, consumer be-
havior, and logistical challenges. Factors support-
ing growth in this segment include: the develop-
ment of logistics infrastructure, consumer educa-
tion and trust-building, integration of technology,
launch of local initiatives, strategic pricing and
promotions, implementation of omnichannel so-
Market structure
1st level
2nd level
3rd level
4th level
External environment:
◆ digitalization of the economy
◆ full-scale war since 2022
◆ crisis shocks / logistical constraints
◆ government regulation and support
◆ global consumption trends
Supply:
◆ assortment
◆ pricing policy
◆ product quality
Demand:
◆ purchasing
◆ power
◆ order frequency
◆ behavioral changes
Market factors
Stages of market development
Development of e-commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
Market participants:
◆ online platforms
◆ retailers (omnichannel) ◆
Suppliers and
manufacturers Logistics
operators
◆ consumers
Product categories:
◆ specialized products
◆ grocery staples
◆ ready-to-eat meals
◆ fruits and vegetables
◆ meat and fish
◆ dairy products and eggs
Infrastructure:
◆ cold chain
◆ fulfillment centers
◆ order processing
technologies
◆ online payment
systems
Consumer digital
◆ Behavior:
◆ online spending per
user
◆ share of food buyers
in total e-commerce
audience
2018—2021:
growth
and shaping
2023—2024:
recovery
2025—2029:
stabilization
and maturity
2022: decline
(war shock)
Fig. 5. Descriptive conceptual model of the development of retail e-commerce in foodstuffs in Ukraine (2018—2029)
Source: prepared by the author.
Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
129ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
lutions, government support and regulation, and
marketing personalization.
Based on this comprehensive analysis of Uk-
rai ne’s online grocery market, it is appropriate to
construct a descriptive conceptual model ref-
lec ting the key structural elements and market
dynamics. This model will serve as the founda-
tion for building an economic-mathematical
model (Fig. 5).
The descriptive conceptual model of the deve-
lopment of online foodstuff retail in Ukraine
(2018—2029) proposes a comprehensive app-
roach to analyzing and forecasting market deve-
lopment by integrating key factors that influence
its functioning. The model includes the following
components:
Technological infrastructure — encompasses the
development of online platforms, logistics ser-
vices, digital sales channels, and IT solutions
for supply chain management.
Consumer behavior — examines demand dy-
namics, behavioral patterns of online shoppers,
trust levels in e-commerce, and the impact of
socio-economic factors.
Logistical and financial indicators — considers
delivery costs, inventory optimization, payment
systems, and discount policies.
Regulatory and economic environment — in-
cludes legislation, tax policies, priority areas for
food sector development, and state initiatives
supporting e-commerce.
Socio-economic factors — accounts for inco me
levels, regional differences, demographic trends,
and the influence of pandemics or crises on the
market.
Key principles of the model:
Integration of quantitative and qualitative data
to forecast market trends.
Consideration of the interconnections between
technological, behavioral, logistical, and regu-
latory factors.
Formation of market development scenarios un-
der varying external conditions.
Novelty and innovation:
The model combines descriptive and predic-
tive approaches, allowing not only a depiction
of the current market state but also an assess-
ment of potential development scenarios.
Table 4. Impact of Implemented Measures on the Key Parameters of the Online Foodstuff Retail Model
Barrier Current State Measures Expected State
Key Model
Variables
Perishable
Goods
Delivery
High losses, limited assort-
ment, narrow delivery area
Investments in cold-chain lo-
gistics, public-private partner-
ships
Reduced losses, expanded
assortment and delivery
coverage
V(t), A(t)
Digital Infra-
structure
Unstable internet, low
platform integration
Expansion of broadband
internet, IT standardization
Increased service speed,
higher capacity
S(t), N(t)
Regulatory
Constraints
Difficulty complying with
sanitary norms, legal un-
certainty
Development of clear rules
for online food trade
Lower certification costs,
stabilized business processes
D(t), S(t)
High Invest-
ment Costs
Low profitability, high
financial barriers
Tax incentives, grant prog-
rams, startup support
Increased market attracti-
veness for new entrants
I(t)
Consumer
Distrust
Low demand for online
sales, low loyalty
Trust-building campaigns, cer -
tification, return guaran tees
Increased demand and
lo yal ty, formation of a stab-
le market
D(t)
Sourse: prepared by the author.
130 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
For the first time in Ukrainian research, tech-
nological, behavioral, and economic indicators
are integrated into a single conceptual fra-
mework.
It enables the formulation of strategic recom-
mendations for both business and government
regarding the development of online foodstuff
retail, with attention to sustainable growth and
innovative practices.
Based on identified barriers and the structural
elements of the descriptive model, it is appropri-
ate to identify key variables affected by specific
interventions. Table 4 demonstrates how imple-
men ting the recommended measures can alter sys-
tem states and adjust the main parameters of the
economic-mathematical model of online food-
stuff re tail (V(t), N(t), A(t), S(t), I(t), D(t)). Pre-
senting the data in a “before/after” format clearly
illustrates which barriers have the greatest impact
on parti cu lar variables and where strategic mea-
sures can de liver the maximum effect on market
development.
The table presents the key barriers to the deve-
lopment of online foodstuff retail and the expec-
ted effects of implementing corresponding mea-
sures. To link with the economic-mathematical
model, the main variables are defined as follows:
V(t) is the market online foodstuff retail in year t;
A(t) is the average expenditure per consumer;
N(t) is the number of online consumers;
S(t) is the shock coefficient / impact of crisis
and recovery factors;
I(t) is the infrastructure readiness and market
attractiveness for new participants;
D(t) is the consumer trust in online purchases.
Based on the established descriptive conceptu-
al model, which reflects key factors, actors, and
development stages in the online foodstuff retail
system in Ukraine, it is appropriate to proceed to
the construction of an economic-mathematical mo-
del. This approach allows the formalization of in-
teractions between the system’s main parameters,
quantitative assessment of the impact of indivi-
dual factors on market dynamics, and forecasting
of its further development.
The economic-mathematical model is based on
identified relationships between sales, the num-
ber of consumers, average consumer expenditure,
and external operating conditions, providing an
analytical basis for management and strategic de-
cision-making.
From the descriptive model, the primary variab-
le V(t) — the online foodstuff retail in Ukraine,
mea sured in million USD per year t — is de ter-
mined.
The basic equation of market size dynamics:
V(t) = N(t) · A(t), (1)
where: V(t) is the market online foodstuff retail in
year t; N(t) is the number of online grocery con-
sumers in year t; A(t) is the average expenditure
per consumer in year t.
The dynamics of consumer numbers are as
follows:
N(t) = N0 ·
0 ,1 ( ) t t
Ng
(2)
where: N0 is the initial number of consumers in
the base year (e.g., 2024); gN is the average consu-
mer annual growth rate (CAGR); t0 is the base year.
The dynamics of average expenditure are as
follows:
A(t) = A0 ·
0( ) ,1 t t
Ag
(3)
where: A0 is the average expenditure per consu-
mer in the base year; gA is CAGR of average ex-
penditure CAGR.
Accounting for External Shocks:
In years of crisis (2022) or periods of rapid re-
covery (2023—2024), a shock coefficient S(t) is int-
roduced:
V(t) = N(t) · A(t) · S(t), (4)
where S(t) < 1 is for the crisis year; S(t) > 1 — for
the recovery period.
The shock coefficient S(t) proposed in this stu-
dy, as a variable adjusting the baseline model, aligns
with approaches applied in [1, 13], where military
actions are considered a factor that can either sti-
mu late or constrain digital distribution channels
depending on logistical capabilities and infrastruc-
ture access.
131ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
The scenario-based approach includes optimis-
tic and pessimistic scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario:
gN and gA are higher than baseline forecasts (e.g.,
active digital adoption by the population, inco-
me growth, successful marketing campaigns).
S(t) is stable or improving: no new crises, imp-
roved delivery infrastructure, state support.
Outcome: rapid growth of e-commerce, out-
pacing global trends.
Baseline Scenario:
Based on forecast data (gN, gA, and S(t) taken
from Statista).
Considered the most likely scenario if current
trends and risk levels persist.
Outcome: gradual growth, market stabilization
by 2029, moderate integration of the food seg-
ment into e-commerce.
Pessimistic Scenario:
gN and gA are declining due to decreased pur-
chasing power, population outflow, and digital
inequality.
S(t) reflects new or prolonged shocks (logistical
complications, cyberattacks, connectivity out-
ages, decreased trust in services, etc.).
Outcome: slowed growth or stagnation of e-com-
merce, persistence of offline dominance in
consumption.
For clarity, the results of the scenario-based app-
roach are presented in Table 5.
The scenario-based approach enables the fol-
lowing:
Compare alternative trajectories of market de-
velopment;
Assess the model’s sensitivity to key parameters;
Prepare stakeholders for potential challenges
and opportunities;
Justify political or business decisions under dif-
ferent scenarios.
For instance, according to research presented
in [4], logistical innovations reduced delivery ti me
from 5.8 to 2.6 days, which aligns with the author’s
conclusion regarding the impact of S(t).
It is also possible to consider the influence of
other factors:
V(t) = 1 2 ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ), ( ) ,f N t A t I t D t C t C t (5)
where: I(t)is the infrastructure readiness; D(t) is
the consumer trust; C1(t) is the logistics cost; C2(t)
is the penetration coefficient.
These variables can be indexed and normalized
within the [0; 1] interval for inclusion in a multi-
factor model.
The extended model for the development of
e-commerce in the food sector represents a logical
continuation of the basic economic-mathemati-
cal model. Its purpose is to account for the multi-
dimensional nature of the market, where sales V(t)
are influenced not only by the number of consu-
mers N(t) and average expenditure A(t) but also
Table 5. Key Scenarios for the Development of Food е-Commerce in Ukraine (2018—2029)
Scenario Key Factors
Projected Sales
Dynamics
Risks Strategic Recommendations
Baseline Current technologies,
stable demand
Moderate growth
of 5—7% annually
Competition, cur ren-
cy fluctuations
Support existing online platforms,
moderate assortment expansion
Optimistic Innovative platforms,
high level of consumer
trust
High growth of
10—15% annually
Technological fai lu -
res, logistics disrup-
tions
Investments in digital infrastruc-
ture, active marketing, expansion
of regional presence
Pessimistic Economic and social
constraints
Low growth of
1—2% annually
Crises, declining de-
mand
Cost optimization, development
of delivery channels, risk reduc-
tion through diversification
Source: prepared by the author.
132 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
by qualitative factors reflecting infrastructure sta-
tus, consumer trust, and logistics.
Infrastructure Readiness Index I(t): reflects the
availability of logistics hubs, fulfillment cen ters,
and service coverage.
Consumer Trust Index D(t): represents the le-
vel of consumer confidence in online sellers,
brands, and rights protection.
Penetration and Logistics Cost Coefficients
C(t): synthesize service accessibility, average de-
livery costs, and channel flexibility.
The inclusion of parameters such as infrastruc-
ture readiness, logistics costs, and consumer trust
is supported by studies [1, 2], which emphasize the
dependence of e-commerce efficiency on logistics
services, digital literacy, and government support.
The results align with previous research [12];
however, the proposed model is innovative due to
its multifactor approach, scenario-based adapt-
ability, and ability to quantitatively forecast mar-
ket dynamics under uncertainty.
Calculations based on statistical data (dynamics
of V(t), N(t), A(t), and S(t)) demonstrate that the
proposed economic-mathematical model can ac-
curately reproduce real trends in food e-commerce
development. Using the core model parameters —
market size V(t), number of online consumers
N(t), average consumer expenditure A(t), and the
shock coefficient S(t) — allows for a quantitative
assessment of the impact of various factors (logis-
tics, digital infrastructure, consumer trust, regu-
latory constraints) on market dynamics.
The model demonstrates high adaptability: it can
be applied to assess development scenarios (base-
line, optimistic, pessimistic) and to forecast sales
in both the short and long term. Its practical app-
lications include: formulating strategic recommen-
dations for businesses and government regarding
the development of e-commerce; evaluating the
effectiveness of infrastructure and marketing mea-
sures; and analyzing market sensitivity to external
shocks (military conflicts, logistical constraints,
income declines).
Among the advantages of the model are the in-
tegration of quantitative and qualitative factors,
adaptability to different scenarios, and the ability
to forecast market dynamics under uncertainty.
The main limitations are the need for regular up-
dates of statistical data and the precision in esti-
mating the influence coefficients of additional
factors (I(t), D(t), C1(t), C2(t)). Nevertheless, the
proposed model serves as a versatile tool for stra-
tegic planning and research on the development
of food e-commerce in Ukraine.
The application of innovative descriptive and
economic-mathematical models in the study of
food e-commerce in Ukraine provides a compre-
hensive understanding of both the structural-func-
tional characteristics of the market and its quan-
titative dynamics. The descriptive model allows
the identification of the system’s core elements —
actors, infrastructure components, external and
internal influencing factors — and establishes sta-
ges of development. In turn, the economic-mathe-
matical model provides a framework to formalize
the interrelationships among these elements, quan-
tify changes in key indicators (sales, average expen-
diture, number of consumers, etc.), and forecast
future trends. The complementary use of both app-
roaches enables not only a deeper understanding
of the nature of digital transformation in the con-
sumer market but also the formulation of strate-
gic scenarios for its development under structural
changes, external shocks, and the growing role of
digital channels in food distribution.
Between 2018 and 2029, Ukraine’s food e-com-
merce market demonstrates high dynamism,
with a gradual increase in the share of online sales
within the overall retail structure. In 2018, the food
e-commerce amounted to only USD 266.5 mil-
lion, approximately 0.6% of the total retail market
for food products (USD 43.32 billion). By 2024,
this share reached 1.2% (USD 703.6 million out
of USD 59.24 billion), and by 2029, it is fore-
casted to exceed 1.6% (USD 1.53 billion out of
USD 94.88 billion).
The most significant decline in food e-commer-
ce in Ukraine occurred in 2022, with sales falling
to USD 131.8 million (an 82.5% decrease com-
pared to 2021), which was proportionally deeper
133ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Innovative Model for the Development of e-Commerce in Foodstuffs in Ukraine
than the overall decline in offline retail (–20.7%).
This indicates the critical vulnerability of digital
sales channels to external shocks in the absence
of established logistics and infrastructure. Howe-
ver, in 2023—2024, e-commerce demonstrated
rapid recovery: growth in 2023 reached 162.3%,
while the overall market grew by only 14.9%. In
subsequent years, the online sector develops fas-
ter than traditional retail, confirming the active
digitalization of the consumer market.
By 2029, e-commerce is expected to account for
1.62% of total food sales. Although this remains
relatively low, it reflects the gradual integration of
digital channels into the food sector, which has
traditionally had limited online sales due to pro-
duct-specific factors (shelf life, transportation, and
consumer habits).
The study proposes a descriptive model that vi-
sualizes the logic of market functioning and de-
velopment. The developed economic-mathemati-
cal model enables the quantitative assessment of
Ukraine’s food e-commerce market in the medium
and long term. This model is suitable for scenario
analysis, forecasting, and comparison with offline
retail or global trends.
Ukraine’s food e-commerce market demonst-
rates high dynamism, adaptability to crisis condi-
tions, and potential for sustainable development.
The main growth driver after 2022 is the increase
in average revenue per user, indicating strengthe-
ned consumer loyalty and a growing share of re-
gular buyers. In contrast, the global market ex-
hibits steadier growth with lower volatility, driven
by simultaneous increases in the number of users
and gradual growth in the average check.
Thus, Ukraine is transitioning from a phase of
explosive growth to a stabilization phase, with po-
tential for further market digitalization, particular-
ly in high-value segments. The strategic challenge
is to maintain positive momentum amid global
competition and to expand the consumer base
through the integration of innovative e-com-
merce formats.
From a practical perspective, the results of this
study can be applied in two main areas. First, for
government authorities — as a foundation for
shaping policies on trade digitalization, suppor-
ting cold-chain infrastructure, and developing stan-
dards and incentives for the growth of online food
distribution channels. Second, for businesses —
as a tool for strategic planning and scenario-based
forecasting, enabling the adaptation of logistics,
marketing, and investment decisions to changing
market conditions. The ultimate beneficiaries of
implementing such approaches are consumers,
who will experience greater accessibility to food
products, a wider assortment, and improved trust
and service quality.
Special attention should be given to a detailed
study of the infrastructural conditions for the func-
tioning of food e-commerce in Ukraine, which will
be the subject of the author’s further research.
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Accepted 25.12.2025
136 ISSN 2409-9066. Sci. innov. 2026. 22(3)
Kyrychenko, A. V.
А.В. Кириченко (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5647-7698)
Національний університет біоресурсів
і природокористування України,
вул. Героїв Оборони, 11, Київ, 03041, Україна,
+380 44 527 8570, +380 44 527 8660, organizing_chair@nubip.edu.ua
ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ
ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ
Вступ. В умовах сучасних викликів, зокрема воєнного періоду, що спричинив порушення логістичних
ланцюгів, зниження купівельної спроможності та значні зміни у поведінці споживачів, особливо актуаль-
ним є розвиток електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами. Цей канал збуту набуває важливого значення
як засіб забезпечення продовольчої доступності та стійкості ринку, адже він дозволяє компенсувати об-
меження традиційних роздрібних мереж і адаптуватися до нових реалій.
Проблематика. Відсутність інтегрованих моделей прогнозування й управління ринком ускладнює прий-
няття стратегічних рішень і стримує масштабування сектору.
Мета. Формулювання інноваційної моделі розвитку електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами в Україні
з урахуванням технологічних, економічних і соціальних чинників.
Матеріали й методи. Інформаційну базу дослідження становлять статистичні дані міжнародної плат-
форми Statista (моніторинг за 2018—2024 рр. з використанням прогнозних оцінок на 2025—2029 рр.). Для
комплексного аналізу обрано системний підхід, діалектичний і історичний підходи, методи теоретичного
узагальнення, економіко-математичне моделювання, сценарний аналіз. Така комбінація методів забезпе-
чує поєднання якісного системного бачення й кількісної прогнозної аналітики, необхідних для обґрунту-
вання практичних рекомендацій.
Результати. Розроблена дескриптивна модель відображає ключові елементи системи та фактори, що
впливають на електронну торгівлю харчовими товарами в Україні, а економіко-математична модель доз-
волила кількісно оцінити динаміку електронної торгівлі ними, визначити ключові драйвери її зростання
(довіру споживачів, інфраструктурну готовність і середні витрати) та обґрунтувати сценарії подальшого
розвитку ринку.
Висновки. Запропоновані інноваційні моделі й аналітичні результати можуть бути використані для
формування державної політики, бізнес-стратегій і заходів підтримки, що сприятимуть підвищенню ролі
електронної торгівлі у продовольчому секторі України, розвитку інфраструктури і цифровізації спожива-
чів, а також забезпеченню стабільності та сталого зростання ринку.
Ключові слова: електронна торгівля, продовольчий сектор економіки, інноваційний підхід, дескриптив-
на концептуальна модель, сценарії розвитку, поведінка споживачів, цифровий канал збуту, цифрова
трансформація, цифровий маркетинг, сталий розвиток.
|
| id | oai:ojs2.scinn-eng.org.ua:article-1145 |
| institution | Science and Innovation |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-18T01:01:10Z |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publisher | PH “Akademperiodyka” |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | scinn-engorgua/2b/b0671401fdafdbe014e75491edc1232b.pdf |
| spelling | oai:ojs2.scinn-eng.org.ua:article-11452026-06-17T11:30:41Z ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ INNOVATIVE MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-COMMERCE IN FOODSTUFFS IN UKRAINE KYRYCHENKO, A. e-commerce, food sector of the economy, innovative approach, descriptive conceptual model, development scenarios, consumer behavior, digital distribution channel, digital transformation, digital marketing, sustainable development. Ключові слова: інновації, електронна торгівля, харчові товари, цифровізація, економіко-математична модель, логістика, Україна. Вступ. В умовах сучасних викликів, зокрема воєнного періоду, що спричинив порушення логістичнихланцюгів, зниження купівельної спроможності та значні зміни у поведінці споживачів, особливо актуальним є розвиток електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами. Цей канал збуту набуває важливого значення як засіб забезпечення продовольчої доступності та стійкості ринку, адже він дозволяє компенсувати обмеження традиційних роздрібних мереж і адаптуватися до нових реалій.Проблематика. Відсутність інтегрованих моделей прогнозування й управління ринком ускладнює прийняття стратегічних рішень і стримує масштабування сектору.Мета. Формулювання інноваційної моделі розвитку електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами в Україніз урахуванням технологічних, економічних і соціальних чинників.Матеріали й методи. Інформаційну базу дослідження становлять статистичні дані міжнародної платформи Statista (моніторинг за 2018—2024 рр. з використанням прогнозних оцінок на 2025—2029 рр.). Для комплексного аналізу обрано системний підхід, діалектичний і історичний підходи, методи теоретичногоузагальнення, економіко-математичне моделювання, сценарний аналіз. Така комбінація методів забезпечує поєднання якісного системного бачення й кількісної прогнозної аналітики, необхідних для обґрунтування практичних рекомендацій.Результати. Розроблена дескриптивна модель відображає ключові елементи системи та фактори, щовпливають на електронну торгівлю харчовими товарами в Україні, а економіко-математична модель дозволила кількісно оцінити динаміку електронної торгівлі ними, визначити ключові драйвери її зростання(довіру споживачів, інфраструктурну готовність і середні витрати) та обґрунтувати сценарії подальшогорозвитку ринку.Висновки. Запропоновані інноваційні моделі й аналітичні результати можуть бути використані дляформування державної політики, бізнес-стратегій і заходів підтримки, що сприятимуть підвищенню роліелектронної торгівлі у продовольчому секторі України, розвитку інфраструктури і цифровізації споживачів, а також забезпеченню стабільності та сталого зростання ринку. Introduction. In the context of contemporary challenges — particularly the wartime period, which has disrupted logistics chains, reduced purchasing power, and significantly altered consumer behavior — the development of e-commerce in food products has become increasingly important. This sales channel is emerging as a critical mechanism for ensuring food accessibility and market resilience, as it compensates for the limitations of traditional retail networks and facilitates adaptation to rapidly changing conditions.Problem Statement. The lack of integrated models for forecasting and managing the market complicates strategic decision-making and limits the scalability of the sector.Purpose. To develop an innovative model for the advancement of e-commerce in food products in Ukraine, given technological, economic, and social factors.Materials and Methods. The empirical basis of the study comprises statistical data from the international platform Statista, covering the period 2018—2024, with forecast estimates for 2025—2029. The research methodology includes a comprehensive approach based on systems analysis, dialectical and historical methods, theoretical generalization, economic-mathematical modeling, and scenario analysis.Results. The proposed economic mathematical model has enabled a quantitative assessment of the dynamics of e-commerce in food products in Ukraine, identified key growth drivers (including consumer trust, infrastructure readiness, and average consumer expenditure), and substantiated alternative scenarios for market development.Conclusions. The proposed models and analytical findings can be applied in the formulation of public policy, the development of business strategies, and the design of support measures aimed at strengthening the role of e-commerce in Ukraine’s food sector PH “Akademperiodyka” 2026-06-17 Article Article Рецензована стаття Peer-reviewed article application/pdf https://scinn-eng.org.ua/ojs/index.php/ni/article/view/1145 10.15407/scine22.03.117 Science and Innovation; Том 22 № 3 (2026): Science and Innovation; 117-136 Science and Innovation; Vol. 22 No. 3 (2026): Science and Innovation; 117-136 2413-4996 2409-9066 10.15407/scine22.03 en https://scinn-eng.org.ua/ojs/index.php/ni/article/view/1145/327 Copyright (c) 2026 Copyright Notice Authors published in the journal “Science and Innovation” agree to the following conditions: Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication. Authors may enter into separate, additional contractual agreements for non-exclusive distribution of the version of their work (article) published in the journal “Science and Innovation” (for example, place it in an institutional repository or publish in their book), while confirming its initial publication in the journal “Science and innovation.” Authors are allowed to place their work on the Internet (for example, in institutional repositories or on their website). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
| spellingShingle | Ключові слова: інновації електронна торгівля харчові товари цифровізація економіко-математична модель логістика Україна. KYRYCHENKO, A. ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ |
| title | ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ |
| title_alt | INNOVATIVE MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-COMMERCE IN FOODSTUFFS IN UKRAINE |
| title_full | ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ |
| title_fullStr | ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ |
| title_full_unstemmed | ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ |
| title_short | ІННОВАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ РОЗВИТКУ ЕЛЕКТРОННОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ХАРЧОВИМИ ТОВАРАМИ В УКРАЇНІ |
| title_sort | інноваційна модель розвитку електронної торгівлі харчовими товарами в україні |
| topic | Ключові слова: інновації електронна торгівля харчові товари цифровізація економіко-математична модель логістика Україна. |
| topic_facet | e-commerce food sector of the economy innovative approach descriptive conceptual model development scenarios consumer behavior digital distribution channel digital transformation digital marketing sustainable development. Ключові слова: інновації електронна торгівля харчові товари цифровізація економіко-математична модель логістика Україна. |
| url | https://scinn-eng.org.ua/ojs/index.php/ni/article/view/1145 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kyrychenkoa ínnovacíjnamodelʹrozvitkuelektronnoítorgívlíharčovimitovaramivukraíní AT kyrychenkoa innovativemodelforthedevelopmentofecommerceinfoodstuffsinukraine |