ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ОБСЯГІВ ВИДОБУТКУ ВУГІЛЛЯ В УКРАЇНІ
A software subsystem for the formation of forecasts of coal production in Ukraine has beendeveloped under the conditions of instability of the structure of the country's fuel bases, which arise as aresult of force majeure factors, in particular, martial law, temporary occupation of the territor...
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| Datum: | 2023 |
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | Ukrainian |
| Veröffentlicht: |
General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
2023
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online Zugang: | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/14 |
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| Назва журналу: | System Research in Energy |
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System Research in Energy| Zusammenfassung: | A software subsystem for the formation of forecasts of coal production in Ukraine has beendeveloped under the conditions of instability of the structure of the country's fuel bases, which arise as aresult of force majeure factors, in particular, martial law, temporary occupation of the territory,destruction of mining enterprises, etc. The program was created with the aim of providing opportunitiesfor a quick assessment of the impact of emergency situations in the country on production volumes in thecoal industry and their further consideration during developing forecasts of the fuel supply of theeconomy, and the energy balance of the country as a whole. The software is created on the basis ofdatabases detailed by coal mining facilities, and professional forecasts of the development of the coalindustry, which take into account the mining and geological, technological, economic, and social featuresof the functioning of mines, as well as possible scenarios of their technological conversion, optimizationof production areas and allows to make such forecasts by changing the expected production state of themine upon the occurrence of force majeure circumstances. The developed forecast adjustment subsystemenables change quickly the structure and composition of the country's coal base; calculate the aggregatevolumes of coal production, differentiated by grades of coal and its technological purpose and accordingto several scenarios of the technological development of the coal industry, which will take place underselected changes in the structure of the mine fund; form general production forecasts, which containcalculated aggregate volumes for all terms of the forecasting period. With the loss of all mines in theLuhansk region and some mines in the Donetsk region as a result of the full-scale invasion of Russia intoUkraine, the forecast scenarios of the development of the coal industry of Ukraine for the period until2040 were adjusted using the software subsystem for forecasting the volume of coal production.Keywords: coal industry, software subsystem, forecasting, mining, development scenarios. |
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