Урахування цінового фактора при прогнозуванні споживання вуглеводнів на короткострокову перспективу в умовах глобалізації
A method of forecasting of the consumption of fuel is considered, by taking the price factor into account. A methodical approach with the use of a modified production function involving the price and profit elasticities of the energy consumption and the coefficient of autonomous technical progress i...
Збережено в:
| Дата: | 2012 |
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| Автори: | , |
| Формат: | Стаття |
| Мова: | Ukrainian |
| Опубліковано: |
General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
2012
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| Теми: | |
| Онлайн доступ: | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/453 |
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| Назва журналу: | System Research in Energy |
Репозитарії
System Research in Energy| Резюме: | A method of forecasting of the consumption of fuel is considered, by taking the price factor into account. A methodical approach with the use of a modified production function involving the price and profit elasticities of the energy consumption and the coefficient of autonomous technical progress is analyzed. The influence of the coefficient of elasticity of the energy consumption by profits and the price elasticity coefficient on the levels of consumption of oil and natural gas for 2001–2008 is studied, and it is determined that the price elasticity coefficient for 2007–2010 was near 1 (0.99–1.04). The analogous effect of the use value coefficient, which also determines the influence of the price factor, is considered, and it is found that its value for the oil consumption during 2001–2008 was 0.12. It is suggested to employ the use value coefficient, which takes more precisely the price influence on the forecasted levels of consumption of oil and natural gas into account, instead of the price elasticity co efficient. |
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