Детерміновано-стохастична модель прогнозування потреби в енергоресурсах дорожнього транспорту України та рівнів викидів парникових газів в атмосферу

• Дата: 2012
• Автор: Sas D.P.
• Формат: Стаття
• Опубліковано: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2012
• Теми: дорожній транспорт; імітаційна модель; прогнозування; паливо.
• Онлайн доступ: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/460
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

The actual problem of forecasting the energy resources demand of Ukraine’s road transportation sector is considered. A particular urgency of this issue is related to the facts that Ukraine does not cover the own demand for oil and natural gas with the internal production and to the global tendency to a constant growth of prices of petroleum products and gas. In addition, the necessity of accounting for the appearance and a possible extension of modern technologies to the road transportation sector such as, for example, hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, etc. is described.In this paper, a simulation model designed for forecasting the fuel demand of Ukraine’s road transportation, as well as the GHG emission level, is presented. The expediency of the use of stochastic methods in the fuel demand modeling is justified. The algorithm of the simulation model, its formalization, and the input data structure are described.The results of calculations within the developed model for the scenario of a moderate growth of the vehicle fleet with continuing high demand for petroleum products and a minimal introduction of new technologies into the road transportation sector, which are consistent with the updated project of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030, are presented.