Прогнозування змін кінцевого споживання енергоресурсів з урахуванням структурних і технологічних зрушень в економіці країни

• Datum: 2013
• Hauptverfasser: Maliarenko O.Ye., Evtukhova T.O., Maistrenko N.Yu.
• Format: Artikel
• Sprache: Ukrainian
• Veröffentlicht: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2013
• Schlagworte: кінцеве споживання енергетичних ресурсів; структурні та технологічні зрушення в економіці; потенціал енергозбереження.
• Online Zugang: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/505
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

The method of calculating the levels of final consumption of fuel and energy resources (FER) with due consideration of structural and technological shifts in Ukraine's economy in general and its sections (EA- economic activities) is proposed. Calculation of the country’s forecasted energy balance is carried out by a «bottom-up» technic. It’s rational to calculate the forecasted levels of the final FUR consumption by individual types of power sources: fuel, thermal and electric power. They are determined using the forecasted power intensity of DVA (domestic value added) by certain EA in a given year and the DVA volume by this EA in the corresponding investigated year. The DVA power intensity value is influenced by the load factor of the technological equipment, changes in the structure of the economy sector (inner sector structural shifts) and the intersectoral structural shifts.The power resource expenditures connected with rendering services to the population for the forecasted years must be estimated by social indicators, such as expenditures of particular kinds of energy per head adjusted for their fluctuations in the forecasted years. The forecasted values of specific costs per head for the future trends should be adjusted in accordance with the European standards.The energy saving potential in the economy of the country and in its components by the most power-consuming EA is determined.