Реалізація стохастичних моделей життєвого циклу об’єктів енергокомплексу на прикладі шахт з видобування енергетичного вугілля

• Date: 2014
• Main Authors: Spitkovskyi A.I., Nechaieva T.P.
• Format: Article
• Language: Ukrainian
• Published: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2014
• Subjects: стохастичні моделі життєвого циклу; енергокомплекс; середньозважена собівартість.
• Online Access: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/509
• Journal Title: System Research in Energy

The article proves the necessity of development and implementation of life-сycle models of energy complex objects in deterministic and stochastic form, which is grounded by the uncertainty of external and internal conditions of its functioning in the long term outlook. Under market conditions it’s prices for fuel and energy resources as well as for services on their transportation and distribution that is the expediency criterion for projects on a country’s power supply system’s development. An essential improvement of the MATRIX subsystem of the PYRAMID-V power engineering development forecasting complex was carried out to enable implementation of the elaborated models and estimation of the average weighted production cost and price under conditions of input data uncertainty. Program and informational facilities, that allow carrying out a specified number of experiments with appropriate transformations in accordance with the random law of input parameters, set by the ranges, as well as conducting the statistical analysis, visualization and recording in a form, acceptable for further analysis and use as statistical parameters, were elaborated to perform the model calculations by the method of statistical tests in the MATRIX subsystem. The specific features of application of the developed approaches to the coal mine life-cycle models as well as the results of their implementation by means of the developed software are presented.