Математичне моделювання розвитку аміачної промисловості

• Дата: 2025
• Автор: Ivanenko, Nataliia
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Ukrainian
• Опубліковано: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2025
• Теми: виробництво аміаку; питомі викиди СО2 на тонну аміаку; «блакитний» аміак; «зелений» аміак; технології уловлювання і зберігання вуглецю.
• Онлайн доступ: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/924
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

Ukraine's climate policy sets long-term national climate goals and instruments to stimulate the country's decarbonization with the aim of achieving climate neutrality. The article examines the national legislation in this area, which is not internally consistent. Among the most energy-intensive industries, ammonia production occupies a prominent place. In the pre-war period, there were six large ammonia-producing enterprises operating in Ukraine. Currently, two are working, the others are not producing products for various reasons. All enterprises use steam methane reforming technology. The raw material is natural gas. Technologies for the production of "blue" (that is, the use of carbon capture and storage technologies for standard technologies) and "green" (the use of electrolysis due to renewable energy sources) ammonia are beginning to be widely used in the world. The article provides technical and economic indicators of available ammonia production technologies. The aim of the work is to create models for forecasting the development of the ammonia industry in Ukraine, taking into account the carbon adjustment mechanism for imports into the EU and Ukraine's potential accession to the EU, and in accordance with the European Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System. A two-stage modeling of the development of the ammonia industry in Ukraine is proposed. At the first stage, an optimization model for the preliminary assessment of the necessary investments is proposed, provided that the specified volume of production and the specified specific emissions of carbon dioxide are achieved. At the same time, in addition to technological and economic factors, social factors are also taken into account. At the second stage, a mathematical model for calculating the levelized cost of ammonia production is proposed. The dependence of the cost of allowances for carbon dioxide emissions in the emissions trading system in the European Union was studied. Researches show that the production of "green" ammonia can be competitive only if there is a sharp increase in the price of organic fuels and emission permits in the European Emissions Trading System, as well as a decrease in the price of electricity from renewable energy sources.