Модель міжпродуктового балансу виробничої підсистеми за розвитку водневих технологій

• Дата: 2025
• Автор: Tolstov, Dmytro
• Формат: Стаття
• Мова: Ukrainian
• Опубліковано: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2025
• Теми: водень; оптимізаційна модель; енергетичний баланс; сталь; аміак; клінкер.
• Онлайн доступ: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/925
• Назва журналу: System Research in Energy

The article proposes an economic and mathematical model of the inter-product balance of an industrial subsystem aimed at quantifying the transition of Ukraine’s energy-intensive industries ‒ steel, ammonia, and clinker ‒ to hydrogen technologies. The model is presented as a “node–line” network with an objective function of minimizing the total cost of energy supply and a system of balance, resource, and technological constraints. Technological coefficients reproduce the specific consumption of energy carriers and water in production nodes, as well as losses and energy expenditures during transportation. Based on sectoral scenarios for cement, ammonia, and steel, the study assesses the energy implications of introducing hydrogen technologies into industry and compares them with conventional technological routes (BF–BOF in steel, gas/coal in clinker, and SMR in ammonia). Modeling shows a sharp increase in the system’s electricity intensity: additional electricity demand for electrolysis reaches 59.5 TWh per year under the minimum hydrogen consumption scenario and up to 112 TWh per year under the maximum scenario. Water consumption for electrolysis in the extreme case amounts to 20.05 million t per year, setting spatial requirements for project placement. Under strict constraints (or high prices) on natural gas and coal, optimal solutions shift toward hydrogen-based technologies (H₂–DRI–EAF in steel, H₂-fired clinker kilns, “green” H₂ in ammonia); in the absence of fossil fuel scarcity, traditional pathways dominate, confirming the crucial role of price signals and resource limits. The obtained results provide a quantitative basis for planning renewable-energy expansion and/or the use of nuclear night-time generation, strengthening the grid, determining hydrogen storage and transport needs, and setting water-use limits within river-basin management plans. The proposed model is suitable for comparing electrolyzer supply configurations (island schemes, grid operation with guarantees of origin, hybrids) and for a phased, synchronized transition of industry to low-carbon technologies according to cost, energy-security, and environmental-constraint criteria.