Щодо методичних положень з оптимізації заходів з адаптації енергетики України до зміни клімату

• Date: 2025
• Main Authors: Balabukh, Vira, Teslenko, Oleksandr, Matviychuk, Oleksandr
• Format: Article
• Language: Ukrainian
• Published: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2025
• Subjects: енергетичний сектор; зміна клімату; адаптація; оптимізаційна модель; технічні; економічні та екологічні фактори.
• Online Access: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/929
• Journal Title: System Research in Energy

The basis of the methodology for creating an optimization model for selecting energy adaptation measures to climate change based on a systemic approach is considered, which involves the integration of mathematical modeling methods, scenario analysis and multi-criteria optimization in order to take into account the uncertainty of climate forecasts, economic and environmental constraints, socio-economic priorities for the development of the energy sector. The key components for creating an optimization model for selecting energy adaptation measures to climate change include the definition of a climate change forecast (temperature regime, humidity regime, wind frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, precipitation, extreme events), data on the sensitivity of the system (energy subsectors) to climate risks, consideration of the current and prospective structure of the energy sector, the potential of renewable energy sources, the cost and effectiveness of adaptation technologies. Based on the results of a comparative analysis of the current regulatory legal acts on the natural components of climate change, a refined list of possible climate threats and their indicators for the energy sector has been developed. The need to collect and process a large amount of source data and various information has been shown, which is due to the interdisciplinary specifics of assessing the risk of climate change impact on the energy sector. Methodological provisions of the optimization model are proposed to determine the priority of measures for adapting the energy sector to climate change by the factor of minimizing the total costs of the energy system, taking into account climate risks, and ensuring the necessary level of reliability and increasing the level of energy security. The methodological provisions proposed by the authors should become the basis for substantiating the feasibility of measures for adapting the energy sector to climate change.