Комплексна оцінка кліматичних загроз для енергетики: інтегральні індекси кліматичної небезпеки

• Date: 2026
• Main Authors: Balabukh, Vira, Teslenko, Oleksandr, Matviychuk, Oleksandr
• Format: Article
• Language: Ukrainian
• Published: General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2026
• Subjects: енергетичний сектор; зміна клімату; сценарій РТК8.5; адаптація; кліматичні ризики; інтегральний індекс кліматичної небезпеки; атомна енергетика.
• Online Access: https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/944
• Journal Title: System Research in Energy

The article presents the methodological principles for a comprehensive assessment of climate threats to the energy sector in accordance with the ISO 14091:2021 standard using integrated climate hazard indices. The proposed approach involves identifying the main climate threats, defining a system of relevant indicators, normalizing them, applying significance weights, and further aggregating the results into a single integrated indicator. Using the example of nuclear power, which is a basic element of Ukraine's energy system and one of the most promising sectors of its development in the post-war period, an assessment of the level of climate hazard for the periods 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 was carried out for the RCP 8.5 scenario, which assumes the highest growth rates of greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 and, accordingly, the greatest changes in the climate system. The results of the study showed that the most critical climatic factors for Ukrainian nuclear power plants are an increase in the average maximum air temperature in summer, an increase in the number of degree days for cooling systems, an increase in the duration of rainless periods, increased aridity, and a change in the average daily river flow in summer. The integral climate hazard indices calculated by the authors indicate that according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, climate change will cause a moderate level of climate hazard for the nuclear power industry of Ukraine in the short and medium term, with a tendency for it to increase in the future. In the period 2041–2060, this indicator may be almost 30 % higher than in 2021–2040. The results obtained are consistent with the conclusions of the IAEA (2018), according to which the impact of climate change on nuclear power is manifested mainly through a slight decrease in the thermal efficiency of power units, as well as a gradual increase in temperature and drying of cooling water reservoirs, which may limit the stability of the operation of energy generating capacities of energy systems.