Improving the accuracy of modeling the trend and seasonal components in the medium-term forecasting of the consumed electric power from the integrated power system
We present a brief description of the software package of the retrospective analysis and the medium-term forecasting “KORASP” and discuss ways to improve the trend and seasonal components of the mathematical model that provide the improved accuracy of a medium-term forecasting of electric energy con...
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| Date: | 2012 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Ukrainian |
| Published: |
General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/446 |
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| Journal Title: | System Research in Energy |
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System Research in Energy| Summary: | We present a brief description of the software package of the retrospective analysis and the medium-term forecasting “KORASP” and discuss ways to improve the trend and seasonal components of the mathematical model that provide the improved accuracy of a medium-term forecasting of electric energy consumption. The comparative evaluation of the accuracy of modeling the seasonal component of the consumed electric power with the use of the methods of autoregression and moving average, as well as three types of artificial neural networks, is carried out. |
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