FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS
The "green" tariff laws in effect in Ukraine were adopted without the necessary technical and economic justification. These laws provide RES owners a wide range of preferences, which in total lead to hypertrophied losses of the Ukrainian energy market. In the process of the state d...
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General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
2023
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System Research in Energy| _version_ | 1871104324853039104 |
|---|---|
| author | Kulyk, Mykhailo |
| author_facet | Kulyk, Mykhailo |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "Mykhailo Kulyk",
"institution": null
}
] |
| author_sort | Kulyk, Mykhailo |
| baseUrl_str | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2026-07-18T12:57:47Z |
| description | The "green" tariff laws in effect in Ukraine were adopted without the necessary technical and economic justification. These laws provide RES owners a wide range of preferences, which in total lead to hypertrophied losses of the Ukrainian energy market. In the process of the state developing a set of measures to radically improve the existing situation, it is necessary to have a wide range of methods of system analysis, including the determination of price indices on the energy market. In the paper a new method and a corresponding mathematical model for determining price indices on energy markets are proposed and tested on real data in conditions of solar and wind power plants functioning in the integrated energy system structure and when "green" tariff laws actions. The model determines the size of the electricity production sector, where competitive relations are maintained. Then the total costs of the energy market are calculated for the summary production of electricity in the power system at both market and fixed prices. The new price is defined as the ratio of total costs to the capacity of electricity production in the sector with competitive relations. The price index is calculated as the ratio of the new price to the market price recorded on the energy market in the base year. Calculations based on real data of the Ukraine’s IES for 2021 showed that if there were no RES in the energy system structure, the market price for electricity would be 2.17 times lower than the actual price. Research of the price index on the energy market of Ukraine at the development of its IES in accordance with the approved government documents showed that at the level of 2030 the average price for electricity will increase by 3.74 times. The country's economy will not be able to withstand such an electricity prices increasing. To solve this problem of national importance, a fundamentally new approach must be implemented. One of the effective solutions is the organization of RES functioning based on the principle of self-sufficiency, when RES ensures frequency and power stability with its own energy. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.15407/srenergy2023.04.045 |
| first_indexed | 2026-03-24T02:03:12Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 45
МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ, ОПТИМІЗАЦІЯ
ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ В ЕНЕРГЕТИЦІ
_____________________________________________________________________________
ISSN 2786-7102 (Online), ISSN 2786-7633 (Print)
https://doi.org/10.15407/srenergy2023.04.045
UDC 621.311:681
Mykhailo Kulyk, Dr. Sci. (Engin.), Professor, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-7027
General Energy Institute of NAS of Ukraine, 172, Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
e-mail: info@ienergy.kiev.ua
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF
UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS
LAWS
Abstract. The "green" tariff laws in effect in Ukraine were adopted without the necessary technical and
economic justification. These laws provide RES owners a wide range of preferences, which in total lead to
hypertrophied losses of the Ukrainian energy market. In the process of the state developing a set of
measures to radically improve the existing situation, it is necessary to have a wide range of methods of
system analysis, including the determination of price indices on the energy market. In the paper a new
method and a corresponding mathematical model for determining price indices on energy markets are
proposed and tested on real data in conditions of solar and wind power plants functioning in the integrated
energy system structure and when "green" tariff laws actions. The model determines the size of the
electricity production sector, where competitive relations are maintained. Then the total costs of the energy
market are calculated for the summary production of electricity in the power system at both market and
fixed prices. The new price is defined as the ratio of total costs to the capacity of electricity production in
the sector with competitive relations. The price index is calculated as the ratio of the new price to the
market price recorded on the energy market in the base year. Calculations based on real data of the
Ukraine’s IES for 2021 showed that if there were no RES in the energy system structure, the market price
for electricity would be 2.17 times lower than the actual price. Research of the price index on the energy
market of Ukraine at the development of its IES in accordance with the approved government documents
showed that at the level of 2030 the average price for electricity will increase by 3.74 times. The country's
economy will not be able to withstand such an electricity prices increasing. To solve this problem of
national importance, a fundamentally new approach must be implemented. One of the effective solutions is
the organization of RES functioning based on the principle of self-sufficiency, when RES ensures frequency
and power stability with its own energy.
Keywords: market price, price index, energy system, energy market, preference, payback.
1. Introduction
In the Integrated Energy System (IES) of Ukraine the rapid increase of wind (WPP) and solar (SPP)
power plants capacity was and is currently being carried out practically without proper scientific support, by
trial and error, without guarantees of reliable provision of regulatory requirements regarding the stability of
frequency and power in power system. In such situation as of October 2019 about 4.000 MW of SPP capacity
and about 7501.500 MW of WPP capacity were introduced in the IES of Ukraine, and the total RES capacity
in the IES of Ukraine almost doubled [1]. Additional high-speed capacities, which destined to stabilize the
functioning modes of the Ukraine’s IES when using large capacities of WPP and SPP in its composition, have
practically not been introduced since the signing of the current "green" tariff laws [2, 3].
At the same time, in the last 57 years, data on a wide range of scientific and technical studies on the effective
functioning of renewable energy sources, both as part of power systems and in the form of distributed
generation using electrical energy storage devices, has appeared in the world's leading scientific publications.
An important positive phenomenon in this powerful flow of up-to-date information is the process of structuring
the topics and publishing the results of the study; a fairly large number of review articles appear, each of which
is devoted mainly to a separate research problem. In particular, it is analyzing the possibilities of energy storage
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-7027
mailto:info@ienergy.kiev.ua
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 46
systems developing along with other flexible networks options in the publication [4]. An important publication
[5] is mainly devoted to the study of methods for determining the required volumes of energy storage in
renewable energy systems. The main attention is devoted to the formalization of the specified definition
criteria, first of all, to financial and technological indicators. These indicators are implemented by applying
probabilistic, analytical and hybrid methods, and the last subclass of them is a heuristic combination of the
first two. Sources [6, 7] contain a comprehensive overview of ways to integrate battery energy storage systems
in distribution networks. Publications [8, 9] provide a fairly comprehensive overview of the battery energy
storage systems structure formation for the use of wind energy while providing the necessary functional
indicators of the power system.
In the multitude of publications devoted to the application of mathematical methods in the field of using
battery systems to ensure the necessary energy-economic indicators of RES energy, the most popular are the
sources that apply probabilistic methods, and some of them [10, 11] are directly used to determine the
necessary indicators of the storage system, the other part [12, 13] – for calculating system reliability indicators
as a whole. Analytical methods [14] currently have undeservedly limited application, perhaps due to their
complexity.
The current version of the "green" tariff laws does not take into account modern trends regarding
technological solutions to ensure frequency and power stability in the IES of Ukraine. Solutions currently
implemented in this system use imported fast-acting energy to stabilize frequency and standby coal-fired power
plants to stabilize power. As evidenced in publications [15, 16], these decisions are destructive both for the
IES of Ukraine and for its energy market. In addition to these main factors, there are a number of others that
further complicate the situation.
The researches by the General Energy Institute (GEI) of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has
established that in order to ensure normalized frequency stability in IES with powerful renewable energy
sources, high-speed electrical regulators such as storage batteries (AB) should be used, and the total power of
such regulators should be only slightly less than the range RES capacities [16]. In addition, to ensure
continuous operation of the power system during weather shutdowns of RES, reserve capacities of traditional
power plants, the volume of which is practically the same as RES capacities, are needed. The "green" tariff
laws exempt RES owners from building the necessary regulatory and reserve capacities in the power system,
transferring these obligations to the power system. This provision of the "green" tariff laws grossly infringes
the principles of the market economy, which provide for equal rights of market participants. According to the
current regulatory energy legislation, all power plants, using traditional technologies, must ensure the stability
of the frequency and power of the electricity they supply to the power system with their own equipment.
The main strategic miscalculation at the "green" tariff laws development and the formation of directions
for the use of SPP and WPP as part of the generating capacity of the IES of Ukraine was the use of IES network
simultaneously for the transmission of energy from both traditional sources and RES. This approach makes it
necessary, in the conditions of a integrated energy system, to ensure the introduction of additional expensive
equipment into its structure, namely reserve energy sources and fast-acting frequency regulators, which could
compensate for the unevenness of power generation and the instability of the RES frequency, which are
technologically inherent in these sources. The researches of the GEI of Ukraine’s National Academy of
Sciences established that it is this equipment (or the import of its energy) that causes the majority of the
hypertrophied costs of the consumer who uses the IES energy with large capacities of SPP and WPP.
A serious strategic miscalculation during the development of the "green" tariff laws was the introduction
into these laws and the normative document [19] of the provision, which in the practice of legal and economic
relations between economic entities is called the "take or pay" principle. This principle obliges the energy
system operator to give priority in the use of energy to wind and solar power plants. In case of violation of this
principle, the owner of SPP or WPP receives compensation in the amount of the lost profit from the energy
market of Ukraine. The results of the carried out studies show that the specified principle leads to unacceptable
systemic losses. In the current state of energy legislation in Ukraine, all energy produced at WPP + TPP and
SPP + TPP complexes must be sold to consumers without alternative [2, 3]. It is generated around the clock,
so it covers part of the base zone of the electric load schedule (ELS), competing only with nuclear plants.
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 47
Therefore, RES together with reserve TPP are almost completely replacing nuclear power plants, which are
the most economical among all traditional technologies, from ELS. It is this mechanism that leads to additional
large system losses [18, 19].
It is an unexpected but proven fact that the effect of "green" laws in the conditions of Ukraine leads to
a significant increase of greenhouse gas emissions. Research carried out in GEI of the Ukraine’s NAS showed
that the effect of "green" laws in the Ukrainian conditions leads to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions
due to the effect of reserve coal-fired power plants. That is, a paradoxical situation has developed in Ukrainian
energy legislation. "Green" laws, the main and only justification for the existence of which is the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions, lead to their catastrophic increase. Decree of the President of Ukraine dated April
4, 2019 No. 104 2019 "On measures to support the development of nuclear energy and increase the level of
safety in the field of nuclear energy use" promotes the introduction of modern technologies at nuclear power
plants, increasing their cost-effectiveness and competitiveness. This decree contradicts the archaic principle of
"green" laws "take or pay", which countries with a market economy abandoned several decades ago (Ukraine
even won a lawsuit at the Stockholm Arbitration Court contra the Russians regarding the use of the principle
of "take or pay" in the supply of gas). The mentioned factors led in 20202021 to forced shutdowns of NPP
units with their large economic losses. If the appropriate changes in the "green" laws are not implemented, the
nuclear energy industry of Ukraine is threatened tht destruction.
The laws of Ukraine on the "green" tariff, as well as relevant regulatory legislation in the field of energy
are outdated, already in 20192021 they caused the state of hidden bankruptcy of the energy market of Ukraine.
In the post-war period, upon reaching the legally approved capacity of WPP/SPP in the amount of about 15
GW [17] and unchanged legislation in the field of operation and development of RES, losses in the energy
industry will exceed $ 20 billion annually in 2021 prices [18]. The country's economy will not be able to
withstand such a burden, shocks await it, even default. The principle of subsidies and preferences, which is the
basis of the regulatory framework for RES in Ukraine, is faulty. Its further use will lead to an uncontrolled
prices increase on the energy market. To develop measures to stabilize the energy market activity, it is
necessary to be able to predict changes in market prices under the influence of certain external or internal
factors.
In the theory of intersectoral balance ([2022] and others) monetary price models and price index
models have been developed, which theoretically can partially be used to forecast price changes in the
electricity markets. However, all existing price models of the intersectoral balance have a hard-and-fast
limitation of application, namely, they give unacceptable errors when there are at least small changes in the
forecast volumes of output in the initial data. Such changes are significant and permanent in the electricity
markets. In [23] developed models of equilibrium prices and price indices within the framework of the theory
of intersectoral balance, which do not have the specified shortcomings. However, in the Input-Output tables
developed by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the electric energy sector is absent at all, it is combined
with the gas and thermal energy sectors. Therefore, it is also impossible to use the models [23].
The purpose of this work is to develop a methodology and model for determining price indices on the
electricity market when wind and solar power plants are functioning in the country's IES and when the "green"
tariff laws operate on its energy market.
2. Methods and mathematical model for determining the price index on the energy market of
Ukraine taking into account the "green" tariff laws
The price index is the ratio of prices for product what produced under different conditions, or at different
times, or at the combined action of these factors. This indicator is one of the main system indicators
characterizing the success of the producer's management.
The author’s developed methods for determining the electricity price index in the IES of Ukraine
consists in the fact that using actual data on the IES of Ukraine regarding the volume of electricity production
W in it during the base year and the corresponding market price P1 for it, the total costs R of the energy market
for all electricity produced in IES are calculated. Further, the cost of electricity at market prices Q, which is
produced by SPP, WPP and reserve power plants, is removed from the costs R. Furthere, the costs of the energy
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 48
market S, which it is forced to carry out in order to comply with the "green" tariff laws, are added to the
resulting difference R1. As a result, the total costs of the energy market R2 for the production of electricity in
the amount of W with the participation of SPP and WPP in the structure of generating capacities of IES are
obtained. With the use of R2, the new price of P2 on the energy market of Ukraine is determined. At the final
stage, the price index μ is calculated according to its definition.
In its formalized form, the price index determination model has the following structure:
1R PW , (1)
1 2V V V , (2)
1Q PV , (3)
1R R Q , (4)
1 2 f c eS S S S S S , (5)
1 1c c rcS PW PW , (6)
2 1v v rvS PW PW , (7)
f fc fc fv fvS P W P W , (8)
1( )c bS P P V , (9)
( )e rc rvS W W , (10)
2 1R R S , (11)
2 2( )R P W V , (12)
2 2 / ( )P R W V , (13)
2 1/P P , (14)
where W is electricity production in IES of Ukraine during the base year; P1 – the average price on the energy
market of Ukraine in the base year; R is the market cost of electricity of the volume W; V1, V2 – volumes of
electricity production in the IES of Ukraine at SPP, WPP and corresponding reserve power plants; Q – market
cost of electricity by volume V; R1 – a sector of the energy market in which competition persists; S – general
costs of the energy market, caused by the presence of SPP, WPP in the structure of the IES of Ukraine and the
effect of the "green" tariff laws ; S1 – energy market costs caused by the operation of the SPP; Рс – fixed price
of SPP energy [3]; Wс – electricity production at the SPP; Wrc – production of electricity at the TPP that reserves
the SPP; S2 – energy market costs caused by the operation of WPP; Pv –fixed price of WPP electricity [3]; Wv
– electricity generation at WPP; Wrv – production of electricity at the TPP, which reserves the WPP; Sf – costs
of the energy market for frequency regulation electricity; Pfc – price of regulatory energy for SPP on the energy
market; Wfc – the amount of regulating energy for SPP; Pfv – the price of WPP regulating energy; Wfv – the
amount of regulating energy for WPP; Sc – system costs of the energy market, caused by the displacement of
nuclear power plants from the energy market by unsuccessful management, which formes the "green" tariff
laws; Pb – the market price of electricity in the ELS base zone; Se – payment for greenhouse gas emissions
caused by the operation of standby coal-fired thermal power plants; α – fee for emissions of 1 ton of CO2; β –
specific emissions СО2; R2 – the total costs of the energy market together with the costs of operation of SPP
and WPP as part of IES; (W – V) – the electricity production sector in the IES of Ukraine, where market
relations are preserved; Р2 – the new price on the energy market, caused by the presence of SPP and WPP
capacities in the IES structure and by the effect of unjustified the "green" tariff laws.
3. Determination of the actual price index on the energy market of Ukraine according to 2021
Output data for SPP: installed capacity of SPP 6283 MW [1]; service life 25 years; specific capital
investments $1.000/kW; the coefficient of use of the installed capacity (CUIC) is 0.17; the SPP
electricity tariff is 4.35 euro cents/kWh [3]. Electricity production in IES of Ukraine in 2021 156.6·109
kWh; average daily price 2.717 ₴/kWh; the price of the base zone is 0.8 ₴/kWh [24].
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 49
Reserve power plants: installed capacity 6283 MW; specific capital investments $400/kW; CUIC
(estimated) 0.63; specific fuel consumption 345 grams of coal equivalent (g.c.e.); service life
35 years; the price of regulating electricity $1.5/kWh; fee for CO2 emissions $3/t.
Output data for WPP: the installed capacity of WPP is 1529 MW [1]; service life 25 years; specific
capital investments $1.400/kW; CUIC 0.35; the tariff for WPP electricity is 8.82 euro cents/kWh
[3].
Reserve power plants: the installed capacity of the TPP is 1.529 MW; specific capital investments
$400/kW; CUIC 0.65; specific fuel consumption – 345 g.c.e.; service life 35 years; base year
2021; $1 = 28.8 ₴; 1 € = 32.5 ₴.
In order to determine the possibilities and peculiarities of the functioning of the model (1)–(14) and to
obtain indicators of price indices that have applied value, in this study the specified indices were determined
based on actual data for 2021 and on forecast indicators for 2030.
Reserve TPP are modernized coal-fired power plants with appropriate characteristics. The fee for
greenhouse gas emissions is average for the countries – new members of the European Union. The installed
capacity of SPP and WPP corresponds to the reported data of NEC "Ukrenergo" for 2021 [6]. The production
of electricity in the IES of Ukraine in 2021 is 156.6·109 kWh according to the reported data of the Ministry of
Energy of Ukraine. The base year is 2021.
The energy-economic indicators of the IES of Ukraine and its energy market, which are necessary to
determine the appropriate price index as of the end of 2021, together with the specified price index, are shown
in the table. 1.
Table 1. Energy economic indicators of IES of Ukraine and the price index on its energy market in 2021, due to the
effect of the "green" tariff laws
№№
Marki
ng
Size Unit Value
1 R
The cost of all electricity of the IES of Ukraine under its solding on the
market
$ USA 14.77·109
2 The installed capacity of the SPP MW 6283
3 Wс Production of electricity at SPP kWh 7.48·109
4 Wrc Production of electricity at the TPP, backup to the SPP kWh 27.74·109
5 V1 Production of electricity at the SPP + standby TPP complex kWh 35.22·109
6 The installed capacity of WPP MW 1529
7 Wv Production of electricity at WPP kWh 3.75·109
8 Wrv Production of electricity at the TPP, backup to the WPP kWh 6.96·109
9 V2 Production of electricity at the WPP + TPP complex kWh 10.71·109
10 V Production of electricity by SPP + TPP and WPP+ TPP complexes kWh 45.93·109
11 Q The cost of energy in volume V on the energy market of Ukraine $ USA 4.33·109
12 R1
The cost of electricity in the amount of R – Q, which is sold on the energy
market of Ukraine
$ USA 10.44·109
13 S1 The cost of electricity produced at the SPP and its backup TPP $ USA 2.95·109
14 S2 The cost of electricity produced at the WPP and its backup TPP $ USA 0.99·109
15 Pfc Wfc The cost of regulating energy for SPP $ USA 3.37·109
16 Pfv Wfv The cost of regulating energy for WPP $ USA 1.69·109
17 Sf The cost of regulating energy for IES as a whole $ USA 5.06·109
18 Sc Systemic losses of the energy market $ USA 3.06·109
19 Se Payment for greenhouse gas emissions $ USA 131.7·106
20 S
General costs of the energy market caused by the operation of SPP and WPP
and the "green" tariff lows
$ USA 12.19·109
21 R2
General costs of the energy market at work of the entire IES of Ukraine using
SPP and WPP in its structure
$ USA 22.63·109
22 W – V
The electricity production sector in the IES of Ukraine, where market
relations are preserved
kWh 110.67·109
23 P2
The new price on the energy market of Ukraine under the conditions of the
"green" tariff laws
$ USA/ kWh 0.2045
24 μ Price index – 2.17
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 50
Thus, if the classical energy market were to work in Ukraine, then the prices in the competitive sector
of electricity generation W – V should have increased by 2.17 times. This did not happen, because the Ukrainian
energy market is not classical, but regulated. In this situation, government bodies tried to balance it with
monetary means (reduction of energy tariffs for SPP and WPP, issuance of Eurobonds, provision of loans to
the energy market under state guarantees, etc.). However, the total annual costs for the operation of SPP and
WPP in the IES of Ukraine under the effect of the "green" tariff laws are so large (item 20 of Table 1) that the
specified monetary measures are far from sufficient, and therefore the energy market of Ukraine at the
beginning of 2022 was in a state of hidden bankruptcy. It is also worth noting that the main measures of
government organizations to overcome crisis phenomena on the energy market were aimed exclusively at
reducing tariffs for SPP and WPP, while the total cost of their energy is only $ 721.8·106, or about 6 % of the
total costs S (item 20 of Table 1). The carried out calculations and analysis provide grounds for making the
following generalizations: the energy market of Ukraine as of the 2021 end was in a state of crisis, its annual
expenditures exceeded revenues by $11.47·109; the reason for this situation is the unsuccessful management
of the energy market, due to the effect of the "green" tariff lows; if the existing management is maintained, the
energy market is threatened with bankruptcy, which will lead to big problems for the country’s economy as a
whole.
4. Determination of the price index on the energy market of Ukraine based on forecast data at
the level of 2030.
Output data for SPP: installed capacity – 9947 MW [3];
tariff for SPP electricity – 3.9 euro cents/kWh [3];
the installed capacity of reserve TPP is 9947 MW.
Output data for WPP: installed capacity – 5033 MW [3];
the tariff for WPP electricity – 7.72 euro cents/kWh [3];
the installed capacity of reserve TPP is 5033 MW.
Volumes of electricity consumption of Ukraine in 2030 – 188.9·109 kWh (forecast GEI of NAS of
Ukraine).
Other inputs needed to calculate the price index can be found in the inputs of Chapter 3.
The plans for the development of the generating capacities of the IES of Ukraine at the level of 2030
predict an increase in the total installed capacity of SPP and WPP from 7.812 (2021) to 14.980 MW, i.e., their
capacity increases by 90 %. At the same time, the growth of electricity consumption in Ukraine during this
period is predicted to be around 21 %. A large discrepancy in the indicated indicators should lead to a
significant increase in the price index and losses of the energy market of Ukraine. This is confirmed by the
calculations given in the table. 2.
The total costs of the energy market caused by the "green" tariff laws amount to $ 25.26·109 (point 20
of Table 2) with revenues of $ 1.56·109, which are provided by the sale of energy from SPP and WPP. The
annual losses of the energy market of Ukraine in the end amount to $ 23.7·109. The economy of the country
will certainly not be able to compensate for such losses with the activities of other industries, since for such
compensation in the competitive sector of the energy market, electricity prices must increase 3.74 times
compared to market prices in 2021. The paradox of the situation that can develop in the energy sector of
Ukraine at the level 2030, while preserving the effect of the "green" tariff laws and the existing management
of the Ukraine’s energy market, is that the volume of the monetary competitive sector R1 of the energy market
in 2030 ($ 9.23·109) is 13 % less than the similar indicator ($ 10.44·109) in 2021 with an increase in electricity
consumption in 2030 by 21 %. There is an adequate position in the commodity competitive sector W – V: its
volume in 2021 was equal to 110.67·109 versus 97.86·109 kWh – in 2030, that is, it is predicted that the
reduction of the commodity sector of the market will also take place by 13 %. This indicates the unacceptable
structural, monetary and commodity imbalances of both the IES and the energy market of Ukraine, caused by
the action of the "green" tariff laws.
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 51
Table 2. Energy-economic indicators of Ukraine’s IES and price index on its energy market in 2030 caused by the
effect of the "green" tariff laws
№№ Marking Size Unit Value
1 R1 The cost of all electricity of the Ukraine’s IES when it is sold on the market $ USA 17.82·109
2 The SPP installed capacity MW 9947
3 Wс Electricity production at SPP kWh 11.85·109
4 Wrc Electricity production at the TPP, backup to the SPP kWh 43.92·109
5 V1 Electricity production at the SPP + standby TPP complex kWh 55.77·109
6 The installed capacity of the WPP MW 5033
7 Wv Electricity production at WPP kWh 12.34·109
8 Wrv Electricity production at the TPP, backup to the WPP kWh 22.93·109
9 V2 Electricity production at the WPP + TPP complex kWh 35.27·109
10 V Production of electricity by SPP + TPP and WPP+ TPP complexes kWh 91.04·109
11 Q The cost of energy volume V on the energy market of Ukraine $ USA 8.59·109
12 R1
The cost of energy in the amount of R – Q, which is sold on the energy
market of Ukraine
$ USA 9.23·109
13 S1 The cost of energy produced at the SPP and its backup TPP $ USA 4.66·109
14 S2 The cost of energy produced at the WPP and its backup TPP $ USA 3.24·109
15 Pfc Wfc The cost of regulating energy for SPP $ USA 5.33·109
16 Pfv Wfv The cost of regulating energy for WPP $ USA 5.56·109
17 Sf The cost of regulating energy for IES as a whole $ USA 10.89·109
18 Sc Systemic losses of the energy market $ USA 6.06·109
19 Se Payment for greenhouse gas emissions $ USA 0.25·109
20 S
General costs of the energy market caused by the operation of SPP and
WPP and the "green" tariff laws
$ USA 25.26·109
21 R2
General costs of the energy market during the operation of the entire IES of
Ukraine using SPP and WPP in its structure
$ USA 34.49·109
22 W – V
The electricity production sector in the IES of Ukraine, where market
relations are preserved
kWh 97.86·109
23 P2
The new price on the energy market of Ukraine under the conditions of the
"green" tariff laws
$ USA/ kWh 0.3524
24 μ Price index – 3.74
5. Conclusions
The current versions of the "green" tariff laws were adopted without sufficient technical and economic
justification. They provide RES owners with a wide range of preferences, which in total lead to hypertrophied
losses of the Ukrainian energy market. According to the actual data of 2021, the losses of the Ukraine’s energy
market amounted to $ 11.47·109, which led it to a state of hidden bankruptcy. Under such conditions, the state
will be forced to develop a set of measures to radically improve both industrial relations in the energy system
and management in the energy market. In the process of such working, it is important to be able to determine
the energy market price index as an integral indicator of the its functioning efficiency. In the conditions of
Ukraine, in order to determine the price index on the energy market, it is impossible to use intersectoral
balance models due to the lack of necessary statistical data. Therefore, the paper proposed and tested on real
data a new method and a corresponding mathematical model for determining price indices on energy markets
in conditions where solar and wind power plants are functioning in the IES structure and the "green" tariff laws
are in effect.
Since these laws establish fixed tariffs for the energy of SPP and WPP, the model first determines the
volume of the electricity production sector, where competitive relations are maintained. Then the total costs of
the energy market are calculated for the total production of electricity in the power system at both market and
fixed prices. The new price is defined as the ratio of total costs to the volume of electricity production in the
sector with competitive relations. The price index is calculated as the ratio of the new price to the market price
fixed on the energy market in the base year.
Calculations based on real data of the Ukraine’s IES as of 2021 showed that if there were no RES in the
energy system structure, the market price for electricity would be 2.17 times lower than the actual price.
Research of the price index of the Ukrainian energy market during the development of its IES in accordance
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2023. 4(75) 52
with the approved government documents showed that at the level of 2030, the average price for electricity
will increase by 3.74 times. At the same time, the total annual losses of the energy market will amount to
$ 23.7·109. It is quite clear that the country's economy will not be able to withstand such an increase in
electricity prices and such losses. During 2018–2020, the state implemented a number of monetary measures
to reduce tariffs for RES electricity. But this activity did not lead to noticeable results, since the cost of RES
electricity in the amount of $ 1.56·109 is only 6 % of the total costs of the energy market for RES operation in
the amount of $ 25.26·109 (item 20 of Table 2). Therefore, to solve this problem of national importance, a
fundamentally new approach must be implemented. One of the most effective of the possible ones is the
organization of RES operation based on the principle of self-sufficiency, when RES ensures frequency and
power stability with its own energy.
This study was carried out at the GEI of the NAS of Ukraine in the process of realization the scientific
project "Increasing the efficiency and safety of the IES operation through the electrification of heat supply in
Ukraine".
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https://www.oree.com.ua/index.php/web/10317
ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ІНДЕКСУ ЦІН НА ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОМУ
РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ
З УРАХУВАННЯМ ДІЇ ЗАКОНІВ ПРО «ЗЕЛЕНИЙ» ТАРИФ
Михайло Кулик, д-р техн. наук, професор, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-7027
Інститут загальної енергетики НАН України, вул. Антоновича, 172, м. Київ, 03150,
Україна
e-mail: info@ienergy.kiev.ua
Анотація. Діючі в Україні закони про «зелений» тариф були прийняті без необхідного техніко-
економічного обґрунтування. Вони надають власникам ВДЕ широкий спектр преференцій, які в
сукупності призводять до гіпертрофованих збитків українського енергоринку. В процесі
розроблення державою сукупності заходів із радикального покращення існуючої ситуації необхідно
мати широкий комплекс методів системного аналізу, у тому числі – визначення індексів цін на
енергетичному ринку. В роботі запропонована і апробована на реальних даних нова методика і
відповідна математична модель визначення індексів цін на енергетичних ринках в умовах, коли у
структурі об’єднаної енергосистеми функціонують сонячні і вітрові електростанції і діють
закони про «зелений» тариф. В моделі визначається обсяг сектору виробництва електроенергії, де
зберігаються конкурентні відносини. Потім розраховуються загальні витрати енергоринку на
сумарне виробництво електроенергії в енергосистемі як за ринковими, так і фіксованими цінами.
Нова ціна визначається як відношення загальних витрат до обсягів виробництва електроенергії у
секторі з конкурентними відносинами. Індекс ціни розраховується як відношення нової ціни до
ринкової, що зафіксована на енергоринку у базовому році. Розрахунки, проведені на реальних даних
ОЕС України станом на 2021 р., показали, що за умови відсутності ВДЕ у структурі
енергосистеми ринкова ціна на електроенергію була б у 2,17 разу меншою за фактичну.
Дослідження індексу ціни на енергоринку України при розвитку її ОЕС у відповідності із
затвердженими урядовими документами показали, що на рівні 2030 р. усереднена ціна на
електроенергію зросте у 3,74 разу. Таке зростання цін на електроенергію економіка країни
витримати не зможе. Для вирішення цієї проблеми державного значення потрібно реалізувати
принципово новий підхід. Одним із ефективних рішень є організація функціонування ВДЕ на основі
принципу самодостатності, коли ВДЕ забезпечує стабільність частоти і потужності власною
енергією.
Ключові слова: ринкова ціна, індекс ціни, енергосистема, енергоринок, преференція, окупність.
Надійшла до редколегії: 03.10.2023
http://pge.org.ua/index.php?option=com_docman&task=art_details&mid=20194&gid=557&lang=en
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48583-2_15
https://saee.gov.ua/sites/default/files/blocks/02_Proekt_NPDVE-10.01.2022.docx
https://saee.gov.ua/sites/default/files/blocks/02_Proekt_NPDVE-10.01.2022.docx
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-22464-5_26
https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/v0309874-18
https://op.europa.eu/en/web/general-publications/publications
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/docs/
https://www.oree.com.ua/index.php/web/10317
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5582-7027
|
| id | systemreorg-article-815 |
| institution | System Research in Energy |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-07-19T01:22:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publisher | General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | systemreorg/32/8b6ef3aeda7df04f25432aae46a15932.pdf |
| spelling | systemreorg-article-8152026-07-18T12:57:47Z FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS Прогнозування індексу цін на енергетичному ринку України з урахуванням дії законів про «зелений» тариф Kulyk, Mykhailo market price, price index, energy system, energy market, preference, payback. ринкова ціна, індекс ціни, енергосистема, енергоринок, преференція, окупність. The "green" tariff laws in effect in Ukraine were adopted without the necessary technical and economic justification. These laws provide RES owners a wide range of preferences, which in total lead to hypertrophied losses of the Ukrainian energy market. In the process of the state developing a set of measures to radically improve the existing situation, it is necessary to have a wide range of methods of system analysis, including the determination of price indices on the energy market. In the paper a new method and a corresponding mathematical model for determining price indices on energy markets are proposed and tested on real data in conditions of solar and wind power plants functioning in the integrated energy system structure and when "green" tariff laws actions. The model determines the size of the electricity production sector, where competitive relations are maintained. Then the total costs of the energy market are calculated for the summary production of electricity in the power system at both market and fixed prices. The new price is defined as the ratio of total costs to the capacity of electricity production in the sector with competitive relations. The price index is calculated as the ratio of the new price to the market price recorded on the energy market in the base year. Calculations based on real data of the Ukraine’s IES for 2021 showed that if there were no RES in the energy system structure, the market price for electricity would be 2.17 times lower than the actual price. Research of the price index on the energy market of Ukraine at the development of its IES in accordance with the approved government documents showed that at the level of 2030 the average price for electricity will increase by 3.74 times. The country's economy will not be able to withstand such an electricity prices increasing. To solve this problem of national importance, a fundamentally new approach must be implemented. One of the effective solutions is the organization of RES functioning based on the principle of self-sufficiency, when RES ensures frequency and power stability with its own energy. Діючі в Україні закони про «зелений» тариф були прийняті без необхідного техніко-економічного обґрунтування. Вони надають власникам ВДЕ широкий спектр преференцій, які в сукупності призводять до гіпертрофованих збитків українського енергоринку. В процесі розроблення державою сукупності заходів із радикального покращення існуючої ситуації необхідно мати широкий комплекс методів системного аналізу, у тому числі – визначення індексів цін на енергетичному ринку. В роботі запропонована і апробована на реальних даних нова методика і відповідна математична модель визначення індексів цін на енергетичних ринках в умовах, коли у структурі об’єднаної енергосистеми функціонують сонячні і вітрові електростанції і діють закони про «зелений» тариф. В моделі визначається обсяг сектору виробництва електроенергії, де зберігаються конкурентні відносини. Потім розраховуються загальні витрати енергоринку на сумарне виробництво електроенергії в енергосистемі як за ринковими, так і фіксованими цінами. Нова ціна визначається як відношення загальних витрат до обсягів виробництва електроенергії у секторі з конкурентними відносинами. Індекс ціни розраховується як відношення нової ціни до ринкової, що зафіксована на енергоринку у базовому році. Розрахунки, проведені на реальних даних ОЕС України станом на 2021 р., показали, що за умови відсутності ВДЕ у структурі енергосистеми ринкова ціна на електроенергію була б у 2,17 разу меншою за фактичну. Дослідження індексу ціни на енергоринку України при розвитку її ОЕС у відповідності із затвердженими урядовими документами показали, що на рівні 2030 р. усереднена ціна на електроенергію зросте у 3,74 разу. Таке зростання цін на електроенергію економіка країни витримати не зможе. Для вирішення цієї проблеми державного значення потрібно реалізувати принципово новий підхід. Одним із ефективних рішень є організація функціонування ВДЕ на основі принципу самодостатності, коли ВДЕ забезпечує стабільність частоти і потужності власною енергією. General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2023-11-13 Article Article application/pdf https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/815 10.15407/srenergy2023.04.045 System Research in Energy; No. 4 (75) (2023): System Research in Energy; 45-53 Системні дослідження в енергетиці; № 4 (75) (2023): Системні дослідження в енергетиці; 45-53 2786-7102 2786-7633 en https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/815/720 Copyright (c) 2023 Mykhailo Kulyk https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 |
| spellingShingle | market price price index energy system energy market preference payback. Kulyk, Mykhailo FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS |
| title | FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS |
| title_alt | Прогнозування індексу цін на енергетичному ринку України з урахуванням дії законів про «зелений» тариф |
| title_full | FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS |
| title_fullStr | FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS |
| title_full_unstemmed | FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS |
| title_short | FORECASTING THE PRICE INDEX ON THE ENERGY MARKET OF UKRAINE CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF THE “GREEN” TARIFFS LAWS |
| title_sort | forecasting the price index on the energy market of ukraine considering the effect of the “green” tariffs laws |
| topic | market price price index energy system energy market preference payback. |
| topic_facet | market price price index energy system energy market preference payback. ринкова ціна індекс ціни енергосистема енергоринок преференція окупність. |
| url | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/815 |
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