FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
The article highlights three main factors that influence the forecast of the consumption of energy in the economy of Ukraine. These are structural shifts in its economy, changes in the structure of energy consumption in Ukraine, and volumes and directions of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GH...
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General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
2024
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System Research in Energy| _version_ | 1871104382779523072 |
|---|---|
| author | Maliarenko, Olena Maistrenko, Natalia Eutukhova, Tatiana |
| author_facet | Maliarenko, Olena Maistrenko, Natalia Eutukhova, Tatiana |
| author_institution_txt_mv | [
{
"author": "Olena Maliarenko",
"institution": null
},
{
"author": "Natalia Maistrenko",
"institution": null
},
{
"author": "Tatiana Eutukhova",
"institution": null
}
] |
| author_sort | Maliarenko, Olena |
| baseUrl_str | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/oai |
| collection | OJS |
| datestamp_date | 2026-07-18T12:57:49Z |
| description | The article highlights three main factors that influence the forecast of the consumption of energy in the economy of Ukraine. These are structural shifts in its economy, changes in the structure of energy consumption in Ukraine, and volumes and directions of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the conditions of compliance with international emission limitations. The conservative scenario of the development of the country's economy is considered. It predicts a moderate recovery, with the economy growing at 2.5 % per year. This pace has been chosen under the condition of the continuation of russia's armed aggression against Ukraine and the end of the active phase of hostilities by the end of 2025. The change in the structure of the economy during russia's military aggression against Ukraine was studied. The directions of further development of key sections of the economy have been determined. Strategic measures to reduce GHG emissions are highlighted, primarily in industry and in the energy sector in particular. Reducing fuel consumption by types of industrial sectors in Ukraine will be achieved through the introduction of energy-efficient technologies and processes aimed at reducing energy consumption in production, by switching to the use of more ecological energy sources, such as renewable energy sources; modernization of industrial facilities and equipment to reduce fuel consumption; implementation of energy saving and energy efficiency promotion programs in industry; reforming the energy sector and increasing energy efficiency in general. According to the updated nationally defined contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement in 2021, the country committed to achieving a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 35 % from the 1990 level by 2030 and switching to energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.15407/srenergy2024.04.065 |
| first_indexed | 2026-03-24T02:03:25Z |
| format | Article |
| fulltext |
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 65
ISSN 2786-7102 (Online), ISSN 2786-7633 (Print)
https://doi.org/10.15407/srenergy2024.04.065
UDC 620.9
Olena Maliarenko, PhD (Engin.), Senior Researcher, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5882-916X
Natalia Maistrenko*, PhD (Engin.), Senior Researcher, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1757-1665
Tatiana Eutukhova, PhD (Engin.), Associate Professor, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4778-2479
General Energy Institute of NAS of Ukraine, 172, Antonovycha St., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine
*Corresponding author: maistrenkonatalia27@ukr.net
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION
OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT
OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Abstract. The article highlights three main factors that influence the forecast of the consumption of
energy in the economy of Ukraine. These are structural shifts in its economy, changes in the structure of
energy consumption in Ukraine, and volumes and directions of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG) in the conditions of compliance with international emission limitations. The conservative scenario
of the development of the country's economy is considered. It predicts a moderate recovery, with the
economy growing at 2.5 % per year. This pace has been chosen under the condition of the continuation of
russia's armed aggression against Ukraine and the end of the active phase of hostilities by the end of
2025. The change in the structure of the economy during russia's military aggression against Ukraine
was studied. The directions of further development of key sections of the economy have been determined.
Strategic measures to reduce GHG emissions are highlighted, primarily in industry and in the energy
sector in particular. Reducing fuel consumption by types of industrial sectors in Ukraine will be achieved
through the introduction of energy-efficient technologies and processes aimed at reducing energy
consumption in production, by switching to the use of more ecological energy sources, such as renewable
energy sources; modernization of industrial facilities and equipment to reduce fuel consumption;
implementation of energy saving and energy efficiency promotion programs in industry; reforming the
energy sector and increasing energy efficiency in general. According to the updated nationally defined
contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement in 2021, the country committed to achieving a reduction
of greenhouse gas emissions by 35 % from the 1990 level by 2030 and switching to energy-efficient and
low-carbon technologies.
Keywords: structure of the economy, energy resources, structure of energy consumption, forecasting,
greenhouse gases.
1. Introduction
The climate problem is very relevant for the development of the whole world. Even 20 years ago, very
hot summer months, especially July and August, were not typical for Ukraine. Nowadays, the situation has
changed to the opposite, which contributed to the development of air conditioning systems in office and
residential premises and led to an increase in electricity consumption in the summer [1]. Today, the lack of
electricity is felt throughout the day, and it will increase in the winter period. This situation arose after large-
scale shelling of energy facilities by the aggressor country, when about 9 GW of installed capacity was
destroyed. The majority refers to heat generation, therefore it is necessary to determine the amount of
electricity and thermal energy consumption that will be needed for the survival of the economy and the
population of Ukraine. Of course, such survival does not exclude the observance of the Agreements on
climate protection, that is, the study of the structure of consumed fuel at power plants in the energy,
industrial and utility sectors of the economy remains important.
Among the researchers who contributed significantly to the understanding of the impact of energy
consumption on greenhouse gas emissions and the development of strategies to reduce this impact, the works
of foreign scientists should be noted: Michael Grubb [2], Nick Watts [3], J. Goldemberg [4], M. Ahmad [5],
I. Khan [6], M.A. Baloch [7], S.A. Neves [8] and others, and Ukrainian scientists, in particular Vitalii
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 66
Babak [9–11], Mykhailo Kulyk [12–14], Iryna Leshchenko [15, 16], Natalia Parasyuk [17], Tetiana
Nechaieva [17, 18], Vitalii Makarov [19], authors of the article [12, 13, 20–22], and others.
The purpose and objectives of the research
The purpose of this article is to determine the impact of structural changes in the economy of Ukraine
on its energy consumption, changes in the structure of fuel consumption on the volumes and directions of
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for the development of forecasts of energy consumption.
The tasks of the research are:
- consideration of structural changes in the economy of Ukraine caused by economic, geopolitical and
globalization factors;
- study of changes in the structure of energy consumption for the period 2010-2020, which are closely
related to changes in the economic situation in the country;
- determination of directions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the industrial sector of the
economy, as one of the main polluters of the environment.
2. Methods and statistical observations
The structure of the country's economy is an important factor for the formation of the forecast of the
consumption of the main types of fuel and other energy resources. The situation in the economy of Ukraine
for the decade 2010–2020 is presented in Table 1. The section "Agriculture" developed with a fluctuation of
7.4–12.1 % in the structure of the economy, the higher indicator is typical for the crisis period, for the period
of stabilization of the economy it was at the level of 9.0–9.3 %, the sector "Industry" steadily declined, it fell
from 22.6 to 18.0 %, this is especially characteristic of the "Manufacturing industry" section – to 10.1 %,
although the "Extractive industry" section is also losing its positions – it decreased to 4.6 %, the section
"Supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning" and "Water supply" together stabilized around 3.3 %,
the section "Construction" loses its share from 3.3 to 2.8 %, the section "Wholesale and retail trade, etc.
develops steadily, its share is about 14 %, the "Transport" section reduces its share to 6.2 %, the
"Information and telecommunications" section steadily grew to 5 %, the "Other Foreign Trade" section
fluctuates between 26.1–31.3 % , supporting the employment of the population and the economy in general
in difficult times.
Table 1. Structural changes in the economy of Ukraine for 2010–2020*
Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Agriculture 7.4 8.2 7.8 8.8 10.2 12.1 11.7 10.2 10.1 9.0 9.3
Industry, including: 22.6 22.1 21.8 20.1 20.5 19.8 21.2 21.1 20.9 19.9 18.0
mining 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.6 4.6
processing 13.2 11.9 12.4 11.3 12.2 11.9 12.2 12.0 11.5 10.8 10.1
electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply, water supply
3.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.3
Construction 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.8
Wholesale and retail trade 14.4 14.9 14.3 14.5 14.7 13.8 13.3 13.7 13.2 13.2 13.9
Transport, warehousing 7.7 7.9 7.0 7.1 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2
Information and telecommunications 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.6 5.0
Other types of economic activity 29.9 27.3 29.6 31.3 29.7 27.0 26.1 27.3 28.0 30.0 30.7
Total Airborne Forces 88.4 86.3 86.4 87.6 87.1 85.0 84.8 84.6 84.8 86.0 85.9
Taxes, subsidies 11.6 13.7 13.6 12.4 12.9 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.2 14.0 14.1
GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
* – calculated according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine [23]
During the period 2021–2024, significant structural changes took place in the economy of Ukraine.
Now it can be stated that the economy of the country has changed significantly compared to the pre-war
indicators in terms of the structure of its economy, when "... export of raw materials, mainly agricultural, IT
sector, and transfers of labor migrants, in fact export of labor resources" determined the main sources of
monetary income [24]. In the conditions of the war, the deterioration of logistics, the reduction of export
potential and the export itself, the Agriculture section has reduced its share in the structure of the economy
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-22464-5_26#auth-Mykhailo-Kulyk
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 67
over the past three years by 3.5 percentage points, which is surprising, since the giants of metallurgy, which
have always competed with it for export volumes in monetary terms and shared 1-2 place. The Industry
sector continued its decline by 3.2 percentage points, reaching 17.2 % in the structure of the Air Force only
due to the fulfillment of military orders. The Extractive industry section fell by 2.4 percentage points. due to
a sharp reduction in coal mining and the volume of exports of other raw materials, although recently there
has been a recovery in the export of iron ore by rail and an increase in the mining of other minerals for the
construction industry. The Processing industry section decreased by 2.1 percentage points, as its component
Metallurgical production was seriously affected after the destruction of the giants of the industry in
Mariupol, according to experts, up to 70 % were destroyed. Before the large-scale shelling of April-July
2024, the Electricity, Gas, Steam, and Air Conditioning Section, together with the Water Supply Section,
increased their share in the structure of the country's Airborne Forces by 1.3 percentage points up to 5.0 %.
The construction section, despite the necessity and importance of its services for the recovery of the
economy after the destruction caused by hostilities, decreased to 1.6 % or 1.2 percentage points. The section
of wholesale and retail trade maintains its high share in the structure of the country's GVA – 12.6 %, due to
which the steady supply of sections of the economy and the population with the necessary types of
production and consumer products and services continues. The Transport section proved itself quite well in
the war, ensuring the evacuation of refugees under shelling, the transportation of commercial products,
including grain through the grain corridor, ferrous metal ores, and construction raw materials and fuel. Its fall
in the structure of GDP occurred by 1 p.p. «Information and telecommunications» decreased by 0.7 pp. to
3.9 %. Previously, this sector was the most developed among others in the economy of Ukraine and occupied
a certain niche in the world trade in services. Currently, he has lost the volume of orders, and the number of
specialists in the IT sector has decreased by 20 %, because some of the IT specialists joined the ranks of the
Armed Forces of Ukraine [24]. The "Other Foreign Trade" sector, which includes a large part of this
structure of the economy, increased from 28.2 to 40.6 %. These are the sections "Education", "Health care
and provision of social assistance", "Arts, sports, entertainment, and recreation", "Operations with real
estate", "Professional, scientific and technical activities", "Activities in the sphere of administrative and
auxiliary service", "Provision of other services" and related activities. This sector is the largest in terms of
the number of employed people and is a kind of trigger of the economy, providing both employment of the
population and its financial support.
Table 2 presents the forecast of the structure of gross added value in Ukraine by the main types of
economic activity according to our calculations. This is a conservative development scenario. It predicts a
moderate recovery, with the economy growing at 2.5 % per year.
Table 2. Forecast of the structure of gross added value in Ukraine by main types of economic activity according
to own calculations (conservative scenario),* %
Indicators
2021
fact
2022
fact
2023
fact
2024
expected
2025 2030
Agriculture 10.9 8.6 7.4 8.0 8.5 10.0
Industry, including: 20.4 16.7 17.2 16.5 18.0 19.3
mining 6.4 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.5 5.3
processing 10.3 7.6 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5
electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply,
water supply
3.7 4.7 5.0 4.0 4.4 4.5
Construction 2.8 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 4.5
Wholesale and retail trade 13.6 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.9 15.5
Transport, warehousing 5.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 7.5
Information and telecommunications 4.7 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.1 5.9
Other types of economic activity 28.2 41.1 40.6 39.4 34.7 23.2
Total Airborne Forces 86.0 88.3 87.6 87.0 86.0 85.9
Taxes, subsidies 14.0 11.7 12.4 13.0 14.0 14.1
GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100
* – the forecast is based on the cessation of hostilities by the end of 2025
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 68
This pace has been chosen under the condition of the continuation of Russia's armed aggression
against Ukraine and the end of the active phase of hostilities by the end of 2025. This rate of recovery was
chosen taking into account the data of the Ministry of Economy, when due to blackouts, the GDP growth of
Ukraine slowed down to 1.1 % in June 2024 [25].
The main factor slowing down the growth rate of the economy was power outages due to its shortage,
but despite the negative factors, the economic recovery continues. Many factors influenced such dynamics.
In particular: the high level of adaptability of the economy to difficult conditions; high rates of export of
products of the mining and metallurgical complex; early start of harvesting of winter crops; stable operation
of the Ukrainian maritime corridor; the ability of individual enterprises to ensure stable access to electricity
thanks to direct imports. "Currently, high-security risks, as well as the consequences of the destruction of the
energy infrastructure, remain the key unsolved problems. The restoration of the energy sector will require
time and resources, which, according to forecasts, may hold back the pace of the recovery of industrial
activity. Also, logistical problems and a difficult situation on the labor market remain negative factors for the
economy" [26]. Another important factor for forming a forecast of the consumption of the main types of fuel
and other energy resources is the structure of energy consumption in the country, both in the economy in
general and taking into account the population.
The study carried out a comparative analysis of the structure of the total supply of primary energy
(Table 3) and the final consumption of fuel and energy resources (Table 4) based on the data of energy
balances of Ukraine in 2010, 2015, and 2020 [27]. The data for 2021 are given according to the source [28]
in thousands of tons (conversion of natural fuel into so-called oil according to [29]).
Table 3. Dynamics of changes in the volume of total primary energy supply (TSPE) for 2010-2020, thousand
tons of energy (% of TSPE) [27, 28]
Year,
indicators
Coal and peat Crude oil
Petroleum
products
Natural gas
Atomic
energy
Renewable
energy
sources
Total supply of
primary energy
2010
38251
(29 %)
11497
(8,7 %)
1682
(1,3 %)
55229
(41,7 %)
23387
(17,7 %)
2611
(2 %)
132308
(100 %)
2015
27344
(30,3 %)
2851
(3,2 %)
7700
(8,6 %)
26055
(29 %)
22985
(25,5 %)
2700
(3 %)
90090
(100 %)
2020
22847
(26,4 %)
4196
(4,9 %)
9947
(11,5 %)
23844
(27,6 %)
19994
(23,0 %)
5687
(6,6 %)
86363
(100 %)
2021 20561 - 5130 23337 - - -
As can be seen from the table 3, the volume of coal consumption decreased by 40 % while preserving
the share of coal (about 30 %) in the structure of the UPP for 2010–2020. The volume of crude oil receipts
decreased almost threefold while the volume of finished petroleum products for export increased by almost
6 times. The total share of oil and petroleum products in ZPPE increased from 10 % to 17 %, which reflects
the activation of the development of the transport sector and agriculture. The volumes of natural gas
consumption decreased by 22 %, the share in the structure of natural gas by 14 % (from 42 % to 27 %). The
share of nuclear generation increased by 4 % while the absolute volume of electricity supply from NPPs
decreased. The use of non-traditional and renewable energy sources, which are included in the combined
energy balance in t.e. hydroelectricity, wind and solar energy, biofuels and waste, tripled in percentage terms
and doubled in absolute terms. This direction of attracting non-traditional and renewable energy sources is
extremely relevant for Ukraine in the conditions of war and especially post-war revival.
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 69
Analyzing fuel consumption in industry helps identify the main sources of energy consumption,
identify opportunities to improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and develop
strategies for transitioning to more sustainable production (Table 4).
Table 4. Dynamics of changes in the volume of final energy consumption for 2010–2020 in Ukraine, thousand
tons of energy (% of Total)
The largest final consumers of fuel and energy in 2020 were industry and the household sector, which
accounted for 33.4 % and 28.4 %, respectively. Non-energy consumption in 2020 amounted to 3.7 million
toe, of which 2.2 million toe was used as a raw material for industry (Table 4).
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine [23], in 2015, fuel consumption by type by the
industrial sector amounted to 22008.60 thousand t u.p. In 2017, consumption amounted to
19406.26 thousand t u.p. according to calculations, the absolute increase is -2602.3 thousand t u.p. If we
compare the indicators of 2018 with 2017, we have an increase of 2120.1 thousand t u.p. and by 10.9 %.
Since 2019, the volume of fuel consumption has decreased by 966.4 thousand t u.p., and in 2020 by another
277.4 thousand t u.p.
The decrease in fuel consumption by types of industrial sectors in Ukraine is associated with a number
of factors, such as:
1. Implementation of energy-efficient technologies and processes aimed at reducing energy
consumption in production.
2. Transition to the use of more ecological sources of energy, such as renewable energy (solar, wind,
hydropower).
3. Modernization of industrial facilities and equipment in order to reduce fuel consumption.
4. Implementation of programs of energy saving and stimulation of energy efficiency in industry.
5. Reforming the energy sector and increasing energy efficiency in general.
These measures help not only to reduce fuel consumption, but also to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and improve the state of the environment.
Assessing the intensity of structural shifts in fuel consumption by the industrial sector helps in solving
a number of issues:
1. Forecasting and planning: Understanding the intensity of structural changes in fuel consumption by
industry makes it possible to predict future trends in fuel consumption and develop effective plans to adapt to
these changes.
2. Effectiveness of energy strategies: Assessment of structural shifts in fuel consumption by industry
helps to assess the effectiveness of measures and policies aimed at reducing fuel consumption, increasing
energy efficiency, and transitioning to renewable energy sources.
3. Reducing emissions: Understanding structural shifts in industry can help establish strategies to
reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and other fuel-related pollutants in the sector.
4. Energy security: Analysis of structural changes in fuel consumption helps to assess the country's
energy security level, determine its dependence on imported energy sources and the diversity of their
sources.
5. Investment planning: Knowledge of structural changes in fuel consumption helps investors and
companies determine directions for investments in the development of new technologies and infrastructure
Year
Coal and
peat
Crude oil and
petroleum products
Natural gas Biofuel
and waste
Electro-
energy
Heat
energy
Total
2010
8372
(11.31)
12244
(16.53)
28396
(38.37)
984
(1.33)
11526
(15.57)
12481
(16.86)
74004
(100)
2015
6302
(12.40)
9463
(18.62)
16022
(31.52)
1283
(2.52)
10233
(20.13)
7527
(14.81)
50831
(100)
2020
5822
(12.19)
9654
(20.21)
13179
(27.59)
2181
(4.56)
9760
(20.43)
7177
(15.02)
47773
(100)
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 70
aimed at reducing fuel use and developing renewable energy sources and reforming the energy sector
towards the development of distributed generation.
Therefore, assessing the intensity of structural shifts in fuel consumption by the industrial sector is
important for decision-making and the formation of strategies in the field of energy and ecology.
The third studied factor affecting greenhouse gas emissions is Ukraine's participation in global
measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and their implementation into legislation and practical
implementation [30, 31].
The main aspects that take into account the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions include:
1. Types of energy: The use of coal, oil and natural gas to produce electricity and heat results in
significant emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Switching
to greener energy sources such as wind power, solar power and hydropower can reduce these emissions.
2. Energy efficiency: Improving the energy efficiency of energy production and consumption can help
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing energy losses during production, transportation and use can
reduce the need to use coal and other energy sources, which are the biggest emitters of these emissions.
3. Transport sector: A significant part of greenhouse gas emissions is associated with road transport,
especially transport that runs on petroleum fuel. Reducing the use of internal combustion engine cars in favor
of electric or hybrid vehicles can help reduce these emissions.
4. Industry: Industry is another important source of greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon
dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The implementation of clean technologies and energy-efficient
production methods can help reduce these emissions. Therefore, the transition to more ecological sources of
energy and improvement of energy efficiency can significantly reduce the amount of greenhouse gas
emissions, which is of great importance for the fight against climate change.
The National Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions from Sources and Absorption by Sinks of
Greenhouse Gases in Ukraine for 1990–2021 was developed in accordance with the requirements of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change. After all, Ukraine is a party to the Convention and, even despite
the war, strives to make its contribution to the global fight against the climate crisis. Submission of the
National Cadastre to the Secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is part of our
country's international obligations. According to the National Cadastre of Anthropogenic Emissions from
Sources and Absorption by Sinks of Greenhouse Gases, which was prepared by the Ministry of Environment
together with the National Center for Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions. In 2021, greenhouse gas
emissions in our country amounted to 341.5 million tons of CO2-eq. This is 62.5 % less than the volume of
1990, but 7.5 % more than in 2020.
In 2010–2013, the growth of GHG emissions was characterized by the general recovery of the
economy from the consequences of the 2008 global crisis. During this period, the consumption of solid fossil
fuels in the energy sector increased due to the gas conflict with the Russian Federation. In 2014–2015, a
sharp reduction in emissions was caused by the fall in the economy due to the occupation of Crimea and the
city of Sevastopol, as well as the start of hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In 2016–2019,
fluctuations in GHG emissions were observed at the level of 337–362 million tons of CO2-equivalent. This
period is characterized by the beginning of the active implementation of the energy efficiency policy (the
"Warm Credits" program is being implemented) and the gradual bringing of tariffs for electricity, hot water
and heat to market values. In 2020, emissions decreased by 11 % compared to 2019, due to the COVID-19
pandemic and measures taken to combat the virus. In 2021, the recovery of the country's economy led to an
increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5 % compared to 2020 [32].
Ukraine took part in a number of international agreements and initiatives aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change, in particular:
1. Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, the European Atomic Energy Community and
their member states of 2014 (Chapter 6 – Environment) [33].
2. The Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, ratified in Ukraine in 2016 (from January 1, 2021, countries
adopt their goals for reducing or limiting GHG emissions) [30].
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 71
3. Low-carbon development strategy of Ukraine until 2050 (SNVR), 2018 (Mindovkillya of Ukraine)
[34].
4. The European Green Deal of 2019 (moving towards a climate-neutral European continent by 2050)
[35]. Ukraine has undertaken to join initiatives and programs aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions
and green economic growth supported by the European Union.
5. Ukraine's updated nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement (NAP2), 2021:
Ukraine committed to achieve a 35 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2030 and
to switch to energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. The very first NPP provided for Ukraine to reduce
CO2 emissions by 40 % by 2030, excluding the agricultural sector and forestry. The indicator of reducing
emissions by 65 % by 2030 was obtained based on the calculation that in 1990 Ukraine's emissions
amounted to 884 million tons, taking into account land use and forestry. And already in 2019, according to
the cadastre, CO2 emissions amounted to 37.6 % of the 1990 level, namely 332 million tons [36, 37].
6. Law 3220-IX "On Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine Regarding Restoration and Green
Transformation of the Energy System of Ukraine", 2023 [38].
These obligations require Ukraine to develop and implement emission reduction strategies and
transition to more environmentally friendly technologies and practices in all sectors of the economy.
General measures that will contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in industry:
1. Increasing energy efficiency in the industrial sector (sections "Processing industry", "Mining
industry", "Supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, Water supply") both at thermal power
plants and industrial block stations, and in the heat supply system: reduction of losses during extraction,
transportation and distribution of various types of organic fuel, the introduction of cogeneration units based
on highly maneuverable HTUs and GPUs into energy supply systems, in particular in the city of Kyiv, etc.).
2. Transition to alternative (burning solid household waste at waste incineration plants with a
cogeneration scheme) and renewable energy sources, in particular in heat supply systems (bioboilers, solar
panels for the production of electricity that will be consumed by electric boilers, heat pump installations).
3. Technological modernization of industrial and energy technologies to increase the coefficient of use
of fuel heat, the coefficient of useful action. In addition to technological energy saving, it is necessary to pay
attention to structural energy saving not only at the country level (reduction in the use of fossil fuels in the
processing industry) but also in intra-sectional structural changes (increasing the effectiveness of energy
saving measures in energy-intensive industries in sections, groups, classes of the Classifier of types of
economic activity).
4. Reforming the energy sector towards the development of distributed generation, including at
industrial enterprises.
Effective tools that stimulate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions include the following:
1. Market (emissions trading systems). The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is based
on the EU Emissions Trading Directive 2003/87/EC. Energy enterprises fall under it: thermal power plants
with a capacity of more than 20 MW; mining industry: coal mining (mine methane), gas mining; processing
industry: oil refineries, coke ovens, enterprises for production and processing of ferrous metals, production
of cement, bricks, glass, ceramics, pulp and paper industry.
2. Tax (fuel taxation, CO2 emissions tax are paid by enterprises that are not part of the EU ETS).
3. Regulation and subsidies (environmental standards, support policy for innovative sectors of the
economy).
3. Results
Analysis of research results. In the table 5–8 shows the calculated volumes of forecast demand for
energy resources according to the structure of the base year 2020 and according to the forecast structure for
2025–2030.
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 72
Table 5. Forecast of demand for electricity in Ukraine until 2030, taking into account structural and
technological energy savings, million kWh
Indicators
2020
(fact)
2021
(fact)
2022*
(fact)
2023*
(expected
)
2024 2025 2030
Gross electricity
consumption by GDP
electricity capacity in 2022
120324.6 125654.8 106200 102507
84000 -
90560
95000 -
100800
111780 -
118600
Gross electricity
consumption by GDP
electricity capacity in 2022,
before large-scale shelling
and the loss of part of the
capacities
108307 112965 120085 162990
Gross electricity
consumption by the power
capacity of the Airborne
Forces together in 2022
before large-scale shelling
and the loss of part of the
capacities, million kWh
108457 114406 121609 165063
Total gross electricity
consumption (gross)
147801.4 156601 127440 123000
100800 -
108670
114000 -
121000
134140 -
142320
Total gross electricity
consumption (gross), before
large-scale shelling and the
loss of part of the capacities
129968 -
130148
135558 -
137287
144102 -
145931
192328 -
194774
* – operational data of Ukrenergo, calculated based on monthly consumption
Table 6. Forecast demand for thermal energy in Ukraine until 2040, taking into account structural and
technological energy savings, thousand GCal [39]
Indicators
2020
(fact)
2025
2030
Consumption of thermal energy in the country according to the
structure of the economy of the base year 2020, taking into
account the needs of the population (2020 structure)
75449.4 58670 76501
Thermal energy consumption by country according to the
forecast structure of the economy (forecast structure)
75449.4 56202 74791
Table 7. Forecast of demand for coal in Ukraine until 2040, taking into account structural and technological
energy savings and emissions of greenhouse gases from their burning, million tons of coal, million tons of CO2-eq
Indicators
2020
(fact)
2025
2030
Coal consumption by country according to the structure of the
economy in 2020 and technological energy saving (structure of
2020)
39.29 40.4 37.5
Coal consumption by country taking into account structural and
technological energy saving (forecast structure)
39.29 24.03 23.98
Estimated GHG emissions from coal combustion – total, million
tons of CO2-eq (2020 structure)
78.38 80.59 74.81
Estimated GHG emissions from coal combustion – total, million
tons of CO2-eq (forecast structure)
78.38 49.96 49.85
Change in GHG emissions due to changes in the structure of the
economy, million tons of CO2-eq
0 30.63 24.96
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 73
Table 8. Forecast of demand for oil products in Ukraine until 2040, taking into account structural and
technological energy savings and emissions of greenhouse gases from their burning, million tons of oil*, million tons of
CO2-eq
Indicators
2020
(fact)
2025
2030
Consumption of petroleum products by country according to the
structure of the economy in 2020 and technological energy saving
(structure of 2020)
10 13.6 16.9
Consumption of petroleum products by country, taking into
account structural and technological energy saving (forecast
structure)
10 13.5 18.4
Estimated GHG emissions from the combustion of petroleum
products - total, million tons of CO2-eq (2020 structure)
30.5 41.3 51.4
Estimated GHG emissions from the combustion of petroleum
products - total, million tons of CO2-eq (forecast structure)
30.5 41.1 56.1
Change in GHG emissions due to changes in the structure of the
economy, million tons of CO2-eq
0 0.2 -4.7
*without taking into account the replacement by electric vehicles, but taking into account the overspending of oil
fuel with an increase in the share of the GDP of the agriculture section and the transport section in the country's
economy.
4. Conclusions
The work examines the impact of three main factors on the forecast of demand for fuel and energy
resources: the structure of the country's economy, the structure of the country's energy consumption, and
international obligations regarding the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It is shown that changing the
structure of the economy can both reduce greenhouse gas emissions (due to fuel savings) and increase their
emissions (due to increased fuel consumption). In the second case, it is expedient to consider measures to
replace volumes of organic fuel with alternative types of fuel (for example, burning coal together with
biofuel in boiler plants) or renewable energy sources (electricity from the sun, wind turbines). In addition to
structural changes, a significant projected decrease in greenhouse gas emissions when using coal was
facilitated by a decrease in coal consumption in the metallurgical complex (by 45 %) due to the destruction
caused by military operations, the large-scale transfer of boiler plants operating in agriculture and in sections
of the "Other VED" group to renewable energy sources: biogas, biofuel boilers, electric boilers and heat
pump installations with solar and wind power generation installations and storage batteries (due to
inaccessibility to own coal deposits in the occupied territories). The forecast for greenhouse gas emissions
from the burning of petroleum products gives a small increase due to the revival of the country's economy by
2030 and an increase in transportation.
Authors’ Contributions. O. Maliarenko reviewed the literature, analyzed primary energy supply
based on Ukraine's reported energy balances for 2010–2021, and developed forecasts for thermal energy,
coal, and petroleum products, including calculations for greenhouse gas emission reductions under economic
structure changes through 2030. N. Maistrenko reviewed domestic literature, analyzed structural shifts in
Ukraine's economy during 2010–2020, and provided a conservative scenario for forecasting the structure of
gross value added by key economic activities and Ukraine's gross domestic product. Additionally, a forecast
of electricity demand in Ukraine through 2030 was developed, considering structural and technological
energy savings. T. Yevtukhova conducted a comparative analysis of the structure of total primary energy
supply and final consumption of fuel and energy resources. She identified factors contributing to fuel
consumption reduction across industrial sectors in Ukraine, analyzed the intensity of structural shifts in fuel
consumption by the industrial sector, and outlined key aspects for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the
industrial sector.
Financing the work. The research was carried out within the framework of budget funding on the
topic of fundamental research "Development of a system of mathematical models for long-term forecasting
of the consumption of the main types of fuel and energy resources in the country's economy, taking into
account the current environmental restrictions" (РК0122U000178).
Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 74
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Системні дослідження в енергетиці. 2024. 4(80) 76
ФАКТОРИ ВПЛИВУ НА ПРОГНОЗ ЕНЕРГОСПОЖИВАННЯ
КРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ ТА ОБСЯГИ СКОРОЧЕННЯ
ВИКИДІВ ПАРНИКОВИХ ГАЗІВ
Олена Маляренко, канд. техн. наук, ст. наук. співр., https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5882-916X
Наталія Майстренко*, канд. техн. наук, ст. досл., https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1757-1665
Тетяна Євтухова, канд. техн. наук, доцент, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4778-2479
Інститут загальної енергетики НАН України, вул. Антоновича, 172, Київ, 03150, Україна
*Автор-кореспондент: maistrenkonatalia27@ukr.net
Анотація. У статті виділено три основні фактори, які впливають на формування прогнозу
споживання ПЕР в економіці України. Це структурні зрушення в її економіці, зміна структури
енергоспоживання (споживання палива) в Україні, обсяги та напрями скорочення викидів
парникових газів (ПГ) в умовах дотримання міжнародних угод стосовно обмежень їх викидів.
Розглянуто консервативний сценарій розвитку економіки країни. Він передбачає помірне
відновлення, коли економіка буде зростати до 2,5 % на рік. Такий темп вибраний за умови
продовження збройної агресії росії проти України та закінчення активної фази бойових дій до
кінця 2025 року. Досліджено зміну структури економіки за час російської військової агресії проти
України. Визначено напрями подальшого розвитку ключових секцій економіки. Висвітлюються
стратегічні заходи для зменшення викидів ПГ, в першу чергу в промисловості та в енергетичному
секторі зокрема. Зменшення споживання палива по видах промислових секторів в Україні буде
досягнуто через впровадження енергоефективних технологій та процесів, спрямованих на
зменшення енерговитрат у виробництві, перехід до використання більш екологічних джерел
енергії, таких як відновлювані джерела енергії (сонячна, вітрова, гідроенергія); модернізацію
промислових об’єктів та устаткування з метою зменшення витрат палива; впровадження
програм енергозбереження та стимулювання енергоефективності в промисловості;
реформування енергетичного сектору та підвищення енергетичної ефективності в цілому. За
Оновленим національно визначеним внеском України до Паризької угоди (НВВ2) у 2021 р. країна
зобов’язалася досягти зменшення до 35 % від рівня 1990 року викидів парникових газів до 2030
року та перейти до енергоефективних і низьковуглецевих технологій. Найперший НВВ передбачав
скорочення Україною викидів СО2 на 40 % до 2030 року, не враховуючи агросектор та лісове
господарство.
Ключові слова: структура економіки, енергоресурси, структура енергоспоживання,
прогнозування, парникові гази.
Надійшла до редколегії: 10.10.2024
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| id | systemreorg-article-871 |
| institution | System Research in Energy |
| keywords_txt_mv | keywords |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-07-19T01:23:13Z |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine |
| record_format | ojs |
| resource_txt_mv | systemreorg/b5/42689ff0fad99265b361cb0b4cdaa5b5.pdf |
| spelling | systemreorg-article-8712026-07-18T12:57:49Z FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Фактори впливу на прогноз енергоспоживання країни в умовах війни та обсяги скорочення викидів парникових газів Maliarenko, Olena Maistrenko, Natalia Eutukhova, Tatiana structure of the economy, energy resources, structure of energy consumption, forecasting, greenhouse gases. структура економіки, енергоресурси, структура енергоспоживання, прогнозування, парникові гази. The article highlights three main factors that influence the forecast of the consumption of energy in the economy of Ukraine. These are structural shifts in its economy, changes in the structure of energy consumption in Ukraine, and volumes and directions of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the conditions of compliance with international emission limitations. The conservative scenario of the development of the country's economy is considered. It predicts a moderate recovery, with the economy growing at 2.5 % per year. This pace has been chosen under the condition of the continuation of russia's armed aggression against Ukraine and the end of the active phase of hostilities by the end of 2025. The change in the structure of the economy during russia's military aggression against Ukraine was studied. The directions of further development of key sections of the economy have been determined. Strategic measures to reduce GHG emissions are highlighted, primarily in industry and in the energy sector in particular. Reducing fuel consumption by types of industrial sectors in Ukraine will be achieved through the introduction of energy-efficient technologies and processes aimed at reducing energy consumption in production, by switching to the use of more ecological energy sources, such as renewable energy sources; modernization of industrial facilities and equipment to reduce fuel consumption; implementation of energy saving and energy efficiency promotion programs in industry; reforming the energy sector and increasing energy efficiency in general. According to the updated nationally defined contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement in 2021, the country committed to achieving a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 35 % from the 1990 level by 2030 and switching to energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies. У статті виділено три основні фактори, які впливають на формування прогнозу споживання ПЕР в економіці України. Це структурні зрушення в її економіці, зміна структури енергоспоживання (споживання палива) в Україні, обсяги та напрями скорочення викидів парникових газів (ПГ) в умовах дотримання міжнародних угод стосовно обмежень їх викидів. Розглянуто консервативний сценарій розвитку економіки країни. Він передбачає помірне відновлення, коли економіка буде зростати до 2,5 % на рік. Такий темп вибраний за умови продовження збройної агресії росії проти України та закінчення активної фази бойових дій до кінця 2025 року. Досліджено зміну структури економіки за час російської військової агресії проти України. Визначено напрями подальшого розвитку ключових секцій економіки. Висвітлюються стратегічні заходи для зменшення викидів ПГ, в першу чергу в промисловості та в енергетичному секторі зокрема. Зменшення споживання палива по видах промислових секторів в Україні буде досягнуто через впровадження енергоефективних технологій та процесів, спрямованих на зменшення енерговитрат у виробництві, перехід до використання більш екологічних джерел енергії, таких як відновлювані джерела енергії (сонячна, вітрова, гідроенергія); модернізацію промислових об’єктів та устаткування з метою зменшення витрат палива; впровадження програм енергозбереження та стимулювання енергоефективності в промисловості; реформування енергетичного сектору та підвищення енергетичної ефективності в цілому. За Оновленим національно визначеним внеском України до Паризької угоди (НВВ2) у 2021 р. країна зобов’язалася досягти зменшення до 35 % від рівня 1990 року викидів парникових газів до 2030 року та перейти до енергоефективних і низьковуглецевих технологій. Найперший НВВ передбачав скорочення Україною викидів СО2 на 40 % до 2030 року, не враховуючи агросектор та лісове господарство. General Energy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 2024-11-28 Article Article application/pdf https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/871 10.15407/srenergy2024.04.065 System Research in Energy; No. 4 (80) (2024): System Research in Energy; 65-76 Системні дослідження в енергетиці; № 4 (80) (2024): Системні дослідження в енергетиці; 65-76 2786-7102 2786-7633 en https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/871/779 Copyright (c) 2024 Olena Maliarenko, Natalia Maistrenko, Tatiana Eutukhova https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0 |
| spellingShingle | structure of the economy energy resources structure of energy consumption forecasting greenhouse gases. Maliarenko, Olena Maistrenko, Natalia Eutukhova, Tatiana FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS |
| title | FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS |
| title_alt | Фактори впливу на прогноз енергоспоживання країни в умовах війни та обсяги скорочення викидів парникових газів |
| title_full | FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS |
| title_fullStr | FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS |
| title_full_unstemmed | FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS |
| title_short | FACTORS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE CONDITIONS OF WAR AND THE AMOUNT OF REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS |
| title_sort | factors influencing the forecast of energy consumption of the country in the conditions of war and the amount of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions |
| topic | structure of the economy energy resources structure of energy consumption forecasting greenhouse gases. |
| topic_facet | structure of the economy energy resources structure of energy consumption forecasting greenhouse gases. структура економіки енергоресурси структура енергоспоживання прогнозування парникові гази. |
| url | https://systemre.org/index.php/journal/article/view/871 |
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